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Opening Segment Recap below  - for:  Thursday, 04/05/07

 

posted 04/05/07:  10:41 pm ET

 

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SPAR

 



AFTER-
HOURS
PRICE
AFTER
TALK:
 

25.50

 




26.37
 

26.04
'Spartan Spirit'

Spartan Motors, Inc. (SPAR)...

I didn't like it, and it's only covered by three tiny boutique firms... no big-shot analyst coverage.

I'll be honest.  Frankly I thought this one was barely worth my attention.  One of those sleep-inducing stocks...

I thought SPAR was levered to municipalities.

They make a chassis for fire trucks and emergency vehicles...nothing to get too excited about.

They're levered to RVs.  But, when you're worried about gas prices, who wants to buy an RV?

They're levered to Iraq.  They make the underbelly of the armored military vehicle.

Then I did some homework.

My new friend Dan (at Indiana University last night) was right about SPAR.  And I was wrong.

SPAR is a buy!

It's an idea totally worth stealing.

SPAR is a small-cap stock that might now fit your risk profile.

.  .  .  .  .


The company does two things.  It makes all kinds of chassis, and it makes emergency vehicles.

I didn't think the emergency vehicles play was any good at all, and then I looked at the data...

And then I saw that, nationwide, we've got an aging fleet of these things.  54% of them are 15 years old.  A third are over 20 years old.

You don't want your ambulance breaking down, because it's just too darn old.  You don't want the fire engine transmission to be shot.

These are old emergency vehicles and they're a huge safety concern.

I may not like stocks in general that are levered to municipalities, but SPAR is levered to their liabilities...

The one sure-fire way to get money out of local government is by selling them a product that prevents lawsuits... Enter SPAR.

Then there's this chassis business... which I'm liking...

I'm liking it for the military end of things.

Even if you believe we're out of Iraq by 2008 - which frankly seems preposterous to me, even with the Democrats' threat - SPAR works.

If you look over the big pentagon budget, you'll see that the big winners are companies that are levered to what is called 'mine-resistant, ambush-protected' (i.e., 'MRAP') vehicles. 

SPAR is one of those companies.  It's at the epicenter of MRAP...

Everybody knows that our guys have been woefully unprepared to deal with the roadside bombs, the improvised explosive devices (i.e., IEDs)...

But now the military is finally spending a lot of money to protect our soldiers from this stuff, and nobody in congress wants to block that kind of spending.  At least not in public.

Enter the Cougar!... which SPAR makes the chassis for.

This thing is covered with half an inch of steel plate, and is proving resistant to roadside bombs... no fatalities yet in a Cougar.

The Cougar is a must.  Under the MRAP program, SPAR's recently gotten two huge orders.  One on January 23rd.  One just a month ago, on March 6th, for $23.4 million, and $16.4 million, respectively.

Hey, even after that... These are orders from two big defense contractors... they only have 3% of the potential orders.  3%.

I think protecting our troops from roadside bombs is a great business for SPAR.  It's the reason its military division has the most growth.

By the way, if I were a defense contractor, this is a natural acquisition for me, because anybody who assembles the finished product, probably wants this product too.

The stock gapped up on the most recent order, but I don't think it's coming in (i.e., the stock price will go down), because the estimates keep rising...

.  .  .  .  .


Last, but not least, there's the RV business, which I was also wrong to dislike.

It turns out it's in a secular growth mode.  Baby boomers like these things and they make up a quarter of the population.

Do you know that 1 out of every 12 boomers has an RV?  And we can't forget that the elderly have tons of money, and they'd rather spend it on an RV, than spend it on one of those fancy-schmancy expensive hotel rooms.

SPAR makes the chassis for the top manufacturers, and I'll admit that this could be a good thing.  But, even if it's not, I don't see a lot of downside from the RV segment.

You know these things because they lost their arrangement with Fleetwood (i.e., an RV maker), and the stock barely skipped a beat.

SPAR has been doing really well.  Net income up 102% last year.  They blew away the numbers last quarter.

Balance sheet... superb.

Any stock that trades at 18x forward earnings, that's growing at a 35% clip, looks pretty good from where I'm standing...   

.  .  .  .  .


The bottom line!:    Dan (from Indiana) did some quality work.  I'm going with Dan from the Reese Fund.  I'm going with IU.  And I'm going with SPAR.  Now you go with Cramer.

 

BA 90.50 90.97 Caller asked about which company is more likely to win the $1 billion Tactical Radio Systems contract - BA or LMT?

Jim:  You know, LMT has had some pretty bad press lately, and it seems like a lot of people tend to react to that bad press.  My money's on BA.  By the way, BA doesn't need that (contract) to go to $100.  Anybody who is watching BA today saw that it's starting to sneak, finally, above $90.  And I think the stock, once it breaks out of the $92-93 range, will indeed be catapulted to $100. It remains one of my absolute favorite Dow Jones' stocks.  Buy, buy, buy!

 

TRMB 27.28 27.24 Caller asked about how much growth there is for TRMB with military contracts?...

Jim:  I have always looked at TRMB... At one point, I was actually involved in a global positioning company.  TRMB killed us.  I think the TRMB is really well-run, but you know that the one that I have said is best in show, over and over again, the one that blew away the quarter, the one that is doing the best in the business is GRMN, and I'm sticking with that horse, because it's gotten me this far!

 

GRMN 54.07 54.35 See TRMB comments above for:
GRMN

 

ATK 89.23 89.40 Caller asked if Jim had a play on any bullet makers?...

Jim:  I had the great pleasure to be on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, and I happened to be right at the booth for ATK.  And there was a guy sitting in there, buying that stock every day for who?... For ATK.  ATK rocks!  ATK goes higher.
       


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na na na

'Sell Block'

Tonight, I'm putting the homebuilders on the block...

On selling WCI Communities (WCI)...

I got behind this stock... if you took my advice, and bought on weakness, you could have made some money in this one, but it hasn't been much of a win...


 


And, right now, I'm adamant that the homebuilders cannot be owned.  Especially those with so-called 'southern exposure' meaning Florida...

Let's be honest... the only reason WCI hasn't gone down with all the other homebuilders is (Carl) Icahn's $22 tender offer.  That's holding things up.

There are too many people who actually still believe that the condo situation still isn't bad.  And they are not bailing.

I think WCI needs to do some bleeding before I let you back in.

If you've got profits - even if you don't have them - either way, you want to clear out of WCI now.  Sell, sell, sell!

.  .  .  .  .

On selling Simon Property (SPG)...

I want to say that we've now had a gigantic win in SPG, and it's time to ring the register.
      

.  .  .  .  .

On selling Hologic (HOLX)...

It's time to sell HOLX.  I've liked this as one of the fastest-growing companies in the Cramer universe.  Oh, but it's got a sky-high, nosebleed multiple.  It's price for what I call perfection. Sell, sell, sell!  And there's a story in today's Wall Street Journal ['Study Shows Flaw In Mammography Tool'] and the New York Times that takes perfection away with a study that questions the efficacy of its major product line, computer-aided detection mammography.  The study shows that the expensive HOLX system generates 32% more false positives than when humans do the read.  No HMO worth its salt will spring for a system that's more expensive, and generates a lot more false positives...

.  .  .  .  .

On selling Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)...

I've liked the rails for being a happy oligopoly, but now NSC came out with a little disappointing guidance.  The company's still buying back stock aggressively.  It didn't really get hit that badly.  If you get any strength at all, and NSC stabilizes, you swap out of that and buy UNP*, which I like a lot more.

While we're talking rails, it's time for a little mea culpa on GBX...

I got a little glib, and I recommended this as a short busting play.  The shorts were pushing... I thought that, on January 30th, maybe this one could have a nice run, when they did good numbers.

Well, sure enough, the rail car company issued a report making it clear that, short term, the shorts are right, and Cramer is wrong.

The stock's down big.  And, even though I like the business over the long term, I deserve to be roasted over hot coals, tarred and feathered...  

.  .  .  .  .

On selling a few others...

A few other observations...

CWTR is starting to come back.  It's getting liked again.  I'm dubious.  Before this one goes up any further, I want to reiterate my sell.  I got burned, burned you... I'm not going to let it happen again.

On another note, the analysts keep upgrading the semiconductor equipment stocks... KLAC, NVLS, LRCX... and their ilk... and I think this is insane.  The tech analysts are hopelessly addicted to these stocks, and recommending them.  But their end markets, like MU - which Goldman just downgraded, saying losses are staggering and will get worse - are terrible.  The semiconductor equipment stocks can't do well if their customers - the semis - are doing poorly.  And if you own them, I think you want to get out pronto.

Next item.  A big register ring here.  Back on January 8th, I named GILD my 'bio stock of the year.'  Since then, it is up over 20%.  Now, it's too expensive versus my runner-up, CELG, which I like just as much. 

I say we had our gain in this one.  Time to take a victory lap.  Swap out, or swap into CELG.

Now that MO* and KFT have split up, I want to remind you that it's MO* that I like, not KFT.  I recommended the MO (when issued) shares, at $63 smackers, at the beginning of last month.  It's now at $70 and change.  I think it's still smokin' to use the ridiculously obvious joke.

When I made MO* my 'value stock of the year,' you got both Phillip Morris and Kraft.  I want you to boot KFT right now - sell, sell, sell! - and I want you to keep, or buy more, more of the Marlboro Man...  American cheese just doesn't turn it's customers into hopeless addicts...

How about TTWO?  You know I waffled on that.  Like Straus Zelnick, the new CEO, I question what the Feds are up to here.  Are they building a hedge fund or collusion manipulation case? Is that why it went formal?  I don't know.  I don't care.  I don't believe.  But now it's definitive.  I want you to sell this stock.  Sell, sell, sell.  Over 40% of the stock has been sold short, but short busting isn't enough, as we learned from GBX.  The problem with TTWO isn't the management.  It's the soul of the company.  I just don't believe there's a 'there' there.  And certainly there isn't enough money.  We tried to bust the shorts in GBX.  It wasn't enough.  It won't be enough in TTWO either.  Do you really believe there's a good reason to own TTWO, other than the shorts?  I don't.  Busting shorts is too glib.  It's not a reason.

Finally, there are some people saying that I confused - this one's a tough one for me to take seriously -  that I confused DNDN's Provenge - a great drug - with Devlin MacGregor's Provasic.  Not true!  I've always been negative on Provasic (not a real drug or company), because of that liver toxicity!  Provenge, on the other hand, is a much better drug, and I regret that I didn't go positive on DNDN earlier.  
 

.  .  .  .  .

The bottom line!:    Time to sell WCI.  Sell SPG, sell HOLX, sell GBX, sell KFT, sell GILD, sell TTWO... Swap out of NSC into UNP*.  And, of course, sell Devlin MacGregor.

.  .  .  .  .
  


 


  WCI 21.60 21.35 See 'Sell Block' comments above for:
WCI
  SPG 113.64 113.67 See 'Sell Block' comments above for:
SPG
  HOLX 59.96 59.20 See 'Sell Block' comments above for:
HOLX
  NSC 50.98 52.56 See 'Sell Block' comments above for:
NSC
  UNP* 103.20 106.59 See 'Sell Block' comments above for:
UNP*
  GBX 22.20 22.60 See 'Sell Block' comments above for:
GBX
  CWTR 21.72 21.70 See 'Sell Block' comments above for:
CWTR
  KLAC 55.85 55.80 See 'Sell Block' comments above for:
KLAC
  NVLS 33.10 33.06 See 'Sell Block' comments above for:
NVLS
  LRCX 49.40 49.51 See 'Sell Block' comments above for:
LRCX
  GILD 78.32 77.75 See 'Sell Block' comments above for:
GILD