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PRO/CON |
STOCK |
CLOSING
PRICE
THAT
DAY |
OPENING
PRICE
NEXT
DAY |
JIM
CRAMER'S COMMENTS |
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SPAR
AFTER-
HOURS
PRICE
AFTER
TALK:
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25.50
26.37 |
26.04 |
Spartan Motors, Inc.
(SPAR)...
I didn't like it, and it's
only covered by three tiny
boutique firms... no
big-shot analyst coverage.
I'll be honest.
Frankly I thought this one
was barely worth my
attention. One of
those sleep-inducing
stocks...
I thought SPAR was levered
to municipalities.
They make a chassis for
fire trucks and emergency
vehicles...nothing to get
too excited about.
They're levered to RVs.
But, when you're worried
about gas prices, who
wants to buy an RV?
They're levered to Iraq.
They make the underbelly
of the armored military
vehicle.
Then I did some homework.
My new friend Dan (at
Indiana University last
night) was right about
SPAR. And I was
wrong.
SPAR is a buy!
It's an idea totally worth
stealing.
SPAR is a small-cap stock
that might now fit your
risk profile.
. . . .
.
The company does two
things. It makes all
kinds of chassis, and it
makes emergency vehicles.
I didn't think the
emergency vehicles play
was any good at all, and
then I looked at the
data...
And then I saw that,
nationwide, we've got an
aging fleet of these
things. 54% of them
are 15 years old. A
third are over 20 years
old.
You don't want your
ambulance breaking down,
because it's just too darn
old. You don't want
the fire engine
transmission to be shot.
These are old emergency
vehicles and they're a
huge safety concern.
I may not like stocks in
general that are levered
to municipalities, but
SPAR is levered to their
liabilities...
The one sure-fire way to
get money out of local
government is by selling
them a product that
prevents lawsuits... Enter
SPAR.
Then there's this chassis
business... which I'm
liking...
I'm liking it for the
military end of things.
Even if you believe we're
out of Iraq by 2008 -
which frankly seems
preposterous to me, even
with the Democrats' threat
- SPAR works.
If you look over the big
pentagon budget, you'll
see that the big winners
are companies that are
levered to what is called
'mine-resistant,
ambush-protected' (i.e.,
'MRAP') vehicles.
SPAR is one of those
companies. It's at
the epicenter of MRAP...
Everybody knows that our
guys have been woefully
unprepared to deal with
the roadside bombs, the
improvised explosive
devices (i.e., IEDs)...
But now the military is
finally spending a lot of
money to protect our
soldiers from this stuff,
and nobody in congress
wants to block that kind
of spending. At
least not in public.
Enter the Cougar!... which
SPAR makes the chassis
for.
This thing is covered with
half an inch of steel
plate, and is proving
resistant to roadside
bombs... no fatalities yet
in a Cougar.
The Cougar is a must.
Under the MRAP program,
SPAR's recently gotten two
huge orders. One on
January 23rd. One
just a month ago, on March
6th, for $23.4 million,
and $16.4 million,
respectively.
Hey, even after that...
These are orders from two
big defense contractors...
they only have 3% of the
potential orders.
3%.
I think protecting our
troops from roadside bombs
is a great business for
SPAR. It's the
reason its military
division has the most
growth.
By the way, if I were a
defense contractor, this
is a natural acquisition
for me, because anybody
who assembles the finished
product, probably wants
this product too.
The stock gapped up on the
most recent order, but I
don't think it's coming in
(i.e., the stock price
will go down), because the
estimates keep rising...
. . . .
.
Last, but not least,
there's the RV business,
which I was also wrong to
dislike.
It turns out it's in a
secular growth mode.
Baby boomers like these
things and they make up a
quarter of the population.
Do you know that 1 out of
every 12 boomers has an
RV? And we can't
forget that the elderly
have tons of money, and
they'd rather spend it on
an RV, than spend it on
one of those
fancy-schmancy expensive
hotel rooms.
SPAR makes the chassis for
the top manufacturers, and
I'll admit that this could
be a good thing.
But, even if it's not, I
don't see a lot of
downside from the RV
segment.
You know these things
because they lost their
arrangement with Fleetwood
(i.e., an RV maker), and
the stock barely skipped a
beat.
SPAR has been doing really
well. Net income up
102% last year. They
blew away the numbers last
quarter.
Balance sheet... superb.
Any stock that trades at
18x forward earnings,
that's growing at a 35%
clip, looks pretty good
from where I'm standing...
. . . .
.
The bottom line!:
Dan (from Indiana) did some
quality work. I'm going
with Dan from the Reese Fund.
I'm going with IU. And I'm
going with SPAR. Now you
go with Cramer.
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BA |
90.50 |
90.97 |
Caller asked about which
company is more likely to
win the $1 billion
Tactical Radio Systems
contract - BA or LMT?
Jim: You
know,
LMT has had some
pretty bad press lately,
and it seems like a lot of
people tend to react to
that bad press. My
money's on BA. By
the way, BA doesn't need
that (contract) to go to
$100. Anybody who is
watching BA today saw that
it's starting to sneak,
finally, above $90.
And I think the stock,
once it breaks out of the
$92-93 range, will indeed
be catapulted to $100. It
remains one of my absolute
favorite Dow Jones'
stocks. Buy, buy,
buy! |
|
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TRMB |
27.28 |
27.24 |
Caller asked about how
much growth there is for
TRMB with military
contracts?...
Jim: I have
always looked at TRMB...
At one point, I was
actually involved in a
global positioning
company. TRMB killed
us. I think the TRMB
is really well-run, but
you know that the one that
I have said is best in
show, over and over again,
the one that blew away the
quarter, the one that is
doing the best in the
business is GRMN, and I'm
sticking with that horse,
because it's gotten me
this far! |
|
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GRMN |
54.07 |
54.35 |
See TRMB comments above
for:
GRMN |
|
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ATK |
89.23 |
89.40 |
Caller asked if Jim had a
play on any bullet
makers?...
Jim: I had
the great pleasure to be
on the floor of the New
York Stock Exchange, and I
happened to be right at
the booth for ATK.
And there was a guy
sitting in there, buying
that stock every day for
who?... For ATK. ATK
rocks! ATK goes
higher. |
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PRO/CON |
STOCK |
CLOSING
PRICE
THAT
DAY |
OPENING
PRICE
NEXT
DAY |
JIM
CRAMER'S COMMENTS |
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na |
na |
na |
'Sell Block'
Tonight, I'm putting the
homebuilders on the block...
On selling WCI Communities
(WCI)...
I got behind this stock... if you
took my advice, and bought on weakness,
you could have made some money in this
one, but it hasn't been much of a win...
And, right now, I'm adamant that the
homebuilders cannot be owned.
Especially those with so-called
'southern exposure' meaning Florida...
Let's be honest... the only reason WCI
hasn't gone down with all the other
homebuilders is (Carl) Icahn's $22
tender offer. That's holding
things up.
There are too many people who actually
still believe that the condo situation
still isn't bad. And they are not
bailing.
I think WCI needs to do some bleeding
before I let you back in.
If you've got profits - even if you
don't have them - either way, you want
to clear out of WCI now. Sell,
sell, sell!
. . . .
.
On selling Simon Property (SPG)...
I want to say that we've now had a
gigantic win in SPG, and it's time to
ring the register.
. . . .
.
On selling Hologic (HOLX)...
It's time to sell HOLX. I've
liked this as one of the fastest-growing
companies in the Cramer universe.
Oh, but it's got a sky-high, nosebleed
multiple. It's price for what I
call perfection. Sell, sell, sell!
And there's a story in today's Wall
Street Journal ['Study Shows Flaw In
Mammography Tool'] and the New York
Times that takes perfection away with a
study that questions the efficacy of its
major product line, computer-aided
detection mammography. The study
shows that the expensive HOLX system
generates 32% more false positives than
when humans do the read. No
HMO worth its salt will spring for a
system that's more expensive, and
generates a lot more false positives...
. . . .
.
On selling Norfolk Southern Corp.
(NSC)...
I've liked the rails for being a
happy oligopoly, but now NSC came out
with a little disappointing guidance.
The company's still buying back stock
aggressively. It didn't really get
hit that badly. If you get any
strength at all, and NSC stabilizes, you
swap out of that and buy
UNP*, which I like a lot more.
While we're talking rails, it's time for
a little mea culpa on
GBX...
I got a little glib, and I recommended
this as a short busting play. The
shorts were pushing... I thought that,
on January 30th, maybe this one could
have a nice run, when they did good
numbers.
Well, sure enough, the rail car company
issued a report making it clear that,
short term, the shorts are right, and
Cramer is wrong.
The stock's down big. And, even
though I like the business over the long
term, I deserve to be roasted over hot
coals, tarred and feathered...
. . . .
.
On selling a few others...
A few other observations...
CWTR is starting to come back.
It's getting liked again. I'm
dubious. Before this one goes up
any further, I want to reiterate my
sell. I got burned, burned you...
I'm not going to let it happen again.
On another note, the analysts keep
upgrading the semiconductor equipment
stocks...
KLAC,
NVLS,
LRCX... and their ilk... and I think
this is insane. The tech analysts
are hopelessly addicted to these stocks,
and recommending them. But their
end markets, like
MU - which Goldman just downgraded,
saying losses are staggering and will
get worse - are terrible. The
semiconductor equipment stocks can't do
well if their customers - the semis -
are doing poorly. And if you own
them, I think you want to get out
pronto.
Next item. A big register ring
here.
Back on January 8th, I named
GILD my 'bio stock of the year.'
Since then, it is up over 20%.
Now, it's too expensive versus my
runner-up,
CELG, which I like just as much.
I say we had our gain in this one.
Time to take a victory lap. Swap
out, or swap into CELG.
Now that
MO* and
KFT have split up, I want to remind
you that it's MO* that I like, not KFT.
I recommended the MO (when issued)
shares, at $63 smackers, at the
beginning of last month. It's now
at $70 and change. I think it's
still smokin' to use the ridiculously
obvious joke.
When I made MO* my 'value stock of the
year,' you got both Phillip Morris and
Kraft. I want you to boot KFT
right now - sell, sell, sell! - and I
want you to keep, or buy more, more of
the Marlboro Man... American
cheese just doesn't turn it's customers
into hopeless addicts...
How about
TTWO? You know I waffled on
that. Like Straus Zelnick, the new
CEO, I question what the Feds are up to
here. Are they building a hedge
fund or collusion manipulation case? Is
that why it went formal? I don't
know. I don't care. I don't
believe. But now it's definitive.
I want you to sell this stock.
Sell, sell, sell. Over 40% of the
stock has been sold short, but short
busting isn't enough, as we learned from
GBX. The problem with TTWO
isn't the management. It's the
soul of the company. I just don't
believe there's a 'there' there.
And certainly there isn't enough money.
We tried to bust the shorts in GBX.
It wasn't enough. It won't be
enough in TTWO either. Do you
really believe there's a good reason to
own TTWO, other than the shorts? I
don't. Busting shorts is too glib.
It's not a reason.
Finally, there are some people saying
that I confused - this one's a tough one
for me to take seriously - that I
confused
DNDN's Provenge - a great drug -
with Devlin MacGregor's Provasic.
Not true! I've always been
negative on Provasic (not a real drug or
company), because of that liver
toxicity! Provenge, on the other
hand, is a much better drug, and I
regret that I didn't go positive on DNDN
earlier.
. . . .
.
The bottom line!:
Time to sell WCI. Sell
SPG, sell HOLX, sell GBX, sell
KFT, sell GILD, sell TTWO...
Swap out of NSC into UNP*.
And, of course, sell Devlin
MacGregor.
. . . .
.
|
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WCI |
21.60 |
21.35 |
See
'Sell Block' comments above for:
WCI |
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SPG |
113.64 |
113.67 |
See
'Sell Block' comments above for:
SPG |
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HOLX |
59.96 |
59.20 |
See
'Sell Block' comments above for:
HOLX |
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NSC |
50.98 |
52.56 |
See
'Sell Block' comments above for:
NSC |
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UNP* |
103.20 |
106.59 |
See
'Sell Block' comments above for:
UNP* |
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GBX |
22.20 |
22.60 |
See
'Sell Block' comments above for:
GBX |
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CWTR |
21.72 |
21.70 |
See
'Sell Block' comments above for:
CWTR |
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KLAC |
55.85 |
55.80 |
See
'Sell Block' comments above for:
KLAC |
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NVLS |
33.10 |
33.06 |
See
'Sell Block' comments above for:
NVLS |
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LRCX |
49.40 |
49.51 |
See
'Sell Block' comments above for:
LRCX |
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GILD |
78.32 |
77.75 |
See
'Sell Block' comments above for:
GILD |
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