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Show comments here >>
Wednesday, 08/13/08
Posted 08/12/08, 04:37
pm ET
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comments below)
Today's date:
Wednesday, 08/13/08
Dow Jones:
11,532
- 109
NASDAQ:
2,428
- 2
S&P 500:
1,285
- 3
All comments on one
page...
All on one page...
The bulk of today's
1:30pm "At The Half"
Mad Money show was
dominated by Jim's
comments and opinion
on
Google (GOOG),
where he has once
again turned bullish
on GOOG, indicating
his new price target
of $750.00 from its
current level of
around $500 per share.
Additionally, most of
the show included an
extensive interview
with Google's CEO,
Eric Schmidt.
See comments below...
Note:
During the two week
period, 8/11-8/22, Jim
Cramer's 6pm show has been
replaced by Olympic games'
coverage. Therefore, CNBC is
airing special abbreviated
half hour segments, called
"Mad Money At The Half"...
as well as the normal Mad
Money, full-hour shows, at
11pm.
Given this later schedule of
only an 11pm showing (vs.
the normal 6pm showing), all
full show recaps will be
posted as soon as possible
on the following business
mornings.
Beginning of the 1:30pm show
comments...
. . . . .
Interview:
Jim's comments BEFORE the
interview:
There's one stock I've
championed more than other
since becoming a talking
head, bobblehead, TV
personality... and that
stock is
Google, Inc. (GOOG)!
I called this one a buy from
the moment it came public,
when you could have snapped
it up for about $80 a share.
I said it was a triple. I
was completely and utterly
wrong! It was up a
7-folder... My record on
GOOG wasn't perfect, but
when I say, as I'm doing
now, that it's time to buy
this one and, yes, hand over
fist... I'm not bragging
when I tell you it's
probably a good idea to
listen up and listen up
good...
GOOG got creamed after its
so-called bad quarter, back
on July 17th, falling from
$533 to $481 in 24 hours?...
I thought the decline was
stupid...
Because of these panickers,
you can pick up GOOG for
about $500 a share, and I
think that's an absolute
steal... I'm saying it right
here... especially as now
tech is back in favor,
thanks to the decline in oil
and the triumph of deflation
over inflation.
This was a tremendously
stupid selloff... The bears
read the quarter they ways
they wanted to. And now the
stock is trading at just 20x
my forward earnings
estimates, despite a torrid
30% long-term growth rate.
Of course, the issue is, am
I too bullish? All right...
the cost of traffic going
up... Is there more earnings
cyclicality than I thought?
Has domestic hit a wall?...
Is the management team not
investor-friendly enough? Is
this "Android" - the big new
phone - for real?...
GOOG's bounced from its
lows. The stock's going
higher, but there's still
some questions that we need
answered, before I can give
this one two thumbs up... of
course, way up...
That's why I am thrilled to
bring on GOOG's CEO, the
terrific Eric Schmidt, to
talk about the business...
to talk about the stock...
and we aren't doing that
2-minute CEO drill that TV
is infamous for... I'm going
commercial-free for the
next... All right, I can't
do that...
And, yes... I am standing in
awe of the man and the
company that has changed the
world... a world that I
believe is divided into
"B.G." and "A.G."... You
figure out what those mean
(i.e., we think it's "before
Google" and "after
Google")...
Mr. Schmidt, welcome
aboard!...
. . . .
.
Complete Interview with Google
CEO, Eric Schmidt:
Jim: All
right, let's get right to
it... You have a stock
that's at $500 bucks. I
get stopped all the time
by people who know I love
Google, and they say, will
you get the guy to spit
the stock? I can't afford
$500 bucks. Why don't they
split it? Right away...
tell me how stupid that
is?...
Eric Schmidt:
This
is New York. They can
afford $500 dollars...
Jim: I like that, but I
actually get this question
when I go to, say, North
Carolina too...
Eric Schmidt:
Well, that's
more serious... but we're
not going to split the
stock... at least not for
a while. It's just
better... people think
that the value of a stock
is really the dollars, so
we'll keep it higher.
Jim: All right, good. I
think that's right. I like
individuals to buy one
share. BRK-B did the same
thing.
Eric Schmidt:
It worked
really well for him.
Jim: A lot of people feel
that you don't provide
enough guidance... enough
management share...
Eric Schmidt:
We don't
provide any guidance...
that would be the same
thing as "none"...
Jim: True, and that's
because you...
Eric Schmidt:
Because we
don't want it to get in
the way of running the
business... All right, if
we starting giving
quarterly guidance, all of
the sudden, the whole
company would start
focusing on the quarter,
rather than trying to
change the world.
Jim: Totally true. I wish
other people would do it.
Now, there are 31 out of
33 people (i.e., analysts)
recommending the stock so
clearly it may not have
mattered that you're not
hand holding us.
Eric Schmidt:
Well, these
are the smart people...
Jim: Right. No, it's true.
Now, information
technology and
advertising. I think you
guys have revolutionized
everything. Could you tell
me... a lot of people...
Goldman Sachs is using a
percentage of the GDP
(i.e., gross domestic
product) that you are... I
think that that's a little
too... they are... right
now, you're 0.7% of the
GDP of the United
States... yeah, 7 basis
points... actually .07%...
Eric Schmidt:
That's quite
a difference...
Jim: Hey, catch me...
Here's what I want to
know... There's $600
billion in advertising.
Isn't it fair to think
that, one day, you'll
capture 10% of it?...
Eric Schmidt:
Well, we
could... And, by the way,
the number's larger than
the $600 billion. It's
about $1 trillion
globally... And it's
perfectly possible that
the online world will be
half (i.e., $500 billion),
and Google could be 8% of
that (i.e., $40 billion).
We won't get 100%. And
then we don't know how
long it will take, but we
know that everybody's
moving from these
traditional mechanisms to
more targeted, more
measurable ones, and
online is where the
measurements are.
Jim: Right now,
predominantly desktop, but
we know that, in countries
that are more advanced
than us, like Japan,
mobile computing... Is
your mobile computing
going to be up to snuff,
and can you make us much
money in mobile computing,
because the cell phone
companies have
historically taken too
much of a toll?
Eric Schmidt:
Well, we can
make more money in mobile
than we do in the desktop
eventually. And the reason
is, the mobile computer is
more targeted. Think about
it. You carry your phone.
Your phone knows all about
you, right?
Jim: Oh, everywhere.
Eric Schmidt:
It knows
exactly what you're up to,
so we can do a very
targeted ad. Over time, we
will make more money from
mobile advertising. Not
now, but over time.
Jim: Okay, now... there
are questions that I'm
reading about you in the
paper. There's a lot of
stuff about you guys in
the paper every single
day... You're competing
against the original
content players, like The
New York Times said
earlier this week.
Eric Schmidt:
Well we
think we send a lot of
traffic to them. What
actually happens is,
people come to Google, and
they look for information,
and they immediately go to
the content provider. And
we don't want to
disintermediate them out.
We want to take them...
because we need their
content... we need them to
be successful. We build
advertising products for
them, and so forth. So,
very much, we maintain
that separation.
Jim: Okay, so when I read
those kinds of articles, I
should just think twice
about whether they
aren't... Uh, there is a
kind of a bias... You
know, you guys have gotten
so big, I feel that, when
I pick up an article...
Yesterday, there was an
article about how you
didn't have (the Republic
of) Georgia in the map...
Eric Schmidt:
Well that
turns out not to be true.
We had the same amount of
Georgia before the war as
after the war. And we're
adding more Georgia going
forward, because it's such
an interesting place.
Jim: Well, I've got people
complaining. I do all my
show back and forth with
GMail. You were out on
Monday, GMail.
Eric Schmidt:
Well that
was just a screw-up...
...and we fixed that.
We're not perfect.
Jim: Well, there you go...
Eric Schmidt:
...and we
fixed that. We're not
perfect.
Jim: Okay, now... I want
talk about
philosophically... I know
we've got some real time
here... philosophically...
when my daughter got her
5th grade assignment...
the first thing that
happened was, at the top
of the assignment... "you
are not allowed to Google
it"...
Eric Schmidt:
Really?...
Jim: Yes, you're not
allowed to Google...
Eric Schmidt:
It's like
the old thing, "you can't
use a calculator"... now
you can't use Google?
Jim: Yes, well I was
thinking slide rule, but
you can't... Talk about
the impact...
Eric Schmidt:
But kids use
Google all the time,
because it's a new way of
learning. When I was in...
when I was growing up,
they made me - in Virginia
- memorize the names of
the capitals of every
county in the whole
state... completely
useless information. It
took me a week.
Jim: Completely and
utterly...
Eric Schmidt:
Today, you
just look it up. So people
are going from knowing
everything to learning how
to search very quickly...
The kids need to learn how
to search, because they're
going to have search
everywhere. They're going
to have little devices
that they're going to
carry with them like an
iPod, that will have all
the world's information
with them, for their whole
lives.
Jim: So you're not worried
about intellectual
laziness...
Eric Schmidt:
No...
Jim: ...because you guys
have basically absorbed
what it took me four years
of college to do, which is
how to do thorough
research to be able to do
a paper, to be able to...
Eric Schmidt:
But what's
interesting is now, when
you walk down the street,
there's a question... You
can say, wow, that's
interesting... you can
have the answer. I'm
riding the train between
here and D.C. and, all of
the sudden, I read the
history of the train line.
I could never have done
that before.
Jim: Okay, well... A lot
of times I just think that
what has happened is that
Google has become so
powerful that we have
taken it for granted, and
wouldn't know how to do a
lot of things that we...
Eric Schmidt:
But see I
don't believe in this sort
of lazy people, dumb
people idea... I think...
Jim: But you've thought
about it. Clearly, you had
to have thought about it.
Eric Schmidt:
No, no...
but I actually think
people are smarter,
because they have access
to more information.
Google just organizes it.
The people are still
asking the questions,
their still acting based
on it, and they have so
much more information
available to them.
Jim: All right, okay...
Now, a lot of people
feel... and I know that
we're going to spend the
next segment talking about
what really drives the
stock... that, with the
26% growth that you hit
for domestic this quarter,
that you've tapped out
domestically, and that
your growth is going to
almost entirely have to be
international.
Eric Schmidt:
Well, by the
way, most people would say
26% growth is pretty
good...
Jim: (laughing) I agree,
but there's 31 analysts
who say, listen Jim, you
ought to focus on this...
Eric Schmidt:
Well, first
place, we don't really
know what's going on with
the global economy, and
Google will do better in
any kind of slowdown than
non-targeted advertising,
but we might be affected
by it... you never know.
The important point is
that our model continues
to work, as people are
shifting from offline to
online. And that shift is
inexorable. It's going to
happen no matter what.
Jim: Do you think that
we're going to see, and
I've got a picture of it I
believe... Let me do
this... Google home
page... (pointing to a
monitor of the live Google
website home page)... Let
me do this before we get
to the break. If we can
get the Google home page
up for a second? I think
you've revolutionized
advertising and I think
you know it too... Why
can't you sell, "as
presented by Anheuser
Busch" right here?
(pointing to where a
advertising banner could
be placed at the bottom of
the Google home page)...
Why don't you sell the
home page?
Eric Schmidt:
We
absolutely could.
Jim: And how much do you
think people would pay to
be on that page?
Eric Schmidt:
Some number
of billions of dollars.
Jim: Well, why not do it?
Eric Schmidt:
Because
people wouldn't like it.
We make the decisions
based on what the end user
wants. We prioritize the
end user over the
advertiser.
Jim: You're willing to
throw away potentially...
Eric Schmidt:
We
absolutely...
Jim: ...what I believe
would be a half a billion
dollars in revenue right
now by selling that page?
Eric Schmidt:
We
absolutely are not going
to sell that page.
Jim: But, but wait a
second. If I'm a
shareholder, what kind of
attitude is that?
Eric Schmidt:
Because you
want to be a shareholder
for 20 years, and you want
every one of those users
to come back to Google
over and over and over
again.
Jim: But the domestic
(i.e., revenue numbers)
would be jump started like
you wouldn't believe...
Eric Schmidt:
You could
take a magazine and you
could print nothing but
ads in it and, eventually,
people would stop reading
it.
Jim: Well, right now,
you're far from that. Do
you think that we will
see, within our lifetime,
the international business
dwarfing the United States
business?
Eric Schmidt:
The world is
a really big place, and
advertising is global.
We're already in a
majority international,
and I think eventually
it's going to be 65/35...
something like that.
Jim: Right now, it's
about, what?... It was
52%...
Eric Schmidt:
52/48... But
it's clear to me that the
world is... And, by the
way, look at the growth of
India, look at the growth
of China... Big deal...
Jim: All right, stick with
me. I've got granular
questions about what's
going to happen, that the
Street needs more than my
global, "my kids are lazy
because of Google." All
right? Stay here...
[commercial break]
Jim: We're talking with
Eric Schmidt. I have to
tell you, I'm going back
with a $750 price
target...
Eric Schmidt:
I've never
seen a Google employee
with than many tattoos...
Jim: Well... 'toos are
big... 'toos are big. You
guys've got to get a
little more hip. I would
show you my ring here too
(pointing to his belly
button). I've got a nice
ring here... Uh, what do
you... I know we were
talking in the break. I
know you've got some stuff
that you wanted to ask me.
Eric Schmidt:
Well, I have
a real simple question,
right... You think the
market's going to turn
pretty quick here.
Jim: Yes I do.
Eric Schmidt:
But when's
business going to turn in
America, right? Because
Google will do well I
think as this turns but,
you know, things are kind
of rocky right here.
Jim: Well, I've got to
tell you, the market has
always anticipated between
six and nine months, in
terms of business. For
instance, housing right
now... I don't mean to get
too far afield. I have the
CEO of Google here. But
the housing market I think
is nine months away from a
turn... you see those
stocks turning. The stocks
tell me more. In your
particular case, I believe
that you will get back to
your old prices, because
inflation is coming down,
and I'll pay more for the
out-year earnings. Let me
tell you the things that
keep me up at night about
Google, and what I'm
really worried about. It's
different from what the
analysts are worried
about. First of all, I
think... when I first
started trading... IBM...
I never thought anybody
could touch them. Big,
big, big... and then flat.
MSFT... Big, big, big...
and then flat. I worry
that there's a price...
there's a level... where
Google just simply can't
get any bigger. Your
concern on that?
Eric Schmidt:
Well, you
know, all these tech
companies hit something
called... they hit the "S
curve" and the S curve is
basically... they go like
this (motioning upward on
a climb) and through this
very, very rapid growth
period, and then slows...
and it slows because of
laws of large numbers,
basically... Just, you
know, you're growing,
you're adding billions of
revenue... You just can't
put enough numbers on the
board. So the way you
solve that problem is by
having new businesses. So
we're busy working on new
businesses. The display
business, which is a huge
opportunity, which we
should become a
significant player, but
we're not today. We're
working very hard on that.
Mobile should be a large
one. So the way you
address that S curve
slowdown, in any
technology business, is
you keep adding other
businesses that are
growing. And there's
enough in advertising...
Jim: But didn't Ballmer
think of that?... And
Gates?... (from Microsoft)
And it didn't seem to
work?...
Eric Schmidt:
Well, that's
a different generation.
This is an advertising
generation, and
advertising is a very,
very multi-sector thing.
We can do these kind of
ads, which we do really
well, but there's a lot of
other opportunities for
us, and they'll organize
themselves as the
technology allows. Some of
them will grow faster than
the others, but that's how
we address that question.
Jim: Okay... Uh, I used to
manage money for INTC
executives. In the late
80s, when they decided to
switch from a commodity
product, to the 86, which
became the Pentium, the
thing that they saw and
recognized was that
they're only enemy would
be the government. They
literally believed that,
one day, they could have
80-90% market share. They
were the 20th largest
semiconductor company. I
worry that, at a certain
place, the world... well,
certainly the U.S.
government... will come
down on you, because
you're just too darn
powerful. Each month, I
see your share go up. At a
certain level, people are
going to go to Washington
and say this isn't right.
Eric Schmidt:
Well, we've
actually talked about
this, because our
algorithms are doing
better, it appears that
we're gaining share...
Certainly our advertising
business... we have the
best technology in the
business, and so forth...
So, how do we behave,
right?... We shouldn't
behave the way Microsoft
did, all right... I think
everyone agrees with that.
Certainly, I would never
do that.
Jim: You're not going to
say those nasty things
about the Attorney
General?
Eric Schmidt:
No, no...
We're just not going to do
that. So how do you be big
without being evil, is the
way we need to say it.
Well, one of the things is
that we don't trap end
users. So, if you don't
like Google... for
whatever reason... if we
do a bad job for you, we
make it easy for you to
move to our competitor.
We're trying to make sure
that a competitive market
is maintained by
everything that we do.
Jim: I know the Yahoo deal
(to work in conjunction
with Google for
distribution of
advertising) which, on the
surface looked
anti-competitive, isn't.
Eric Schmidt:
But look at
it. The Yahoo deal is
non-exclusive, text ads
only. It's a classic
outsourcing deal for some
of its advertising. They
can choose to implement it
or not. It's a good deal
for them, it's a good deal
for us. That's the kind of
deal... And, by the way,
they're free to work with
whomever else they wish.
Jim: Now, one of the
things that's been brought
up repeatedly in all the
analyst reports - and it
was mentioned in
conference call - is that
you must be seeing some
cyclicality. We know the
airlines are in trouble...
we know that travel's in
trouble... we know the
autos are in trouble. That
has simply been completely
and utterly wrong, hasn't
it?
Eric Schmidt:
Well, it's
bizarre because, while
autos are in trouble,
because the automobile
dealers are really smart,
they move to more targeted
advertising to sell the
inventory that they have.
So we can do well, if
people transition to more
targeted, more measurable,
more ROI-based
advertising. The ones that
are being hit,
unfortunately, are these
non-measurable advertising
things. There's no reason
to put money there.
Jim: You should explain...
that's newspapers and
magazines...
Eric Schmidt:
...and
traditional display ads.
Jim: When my kids... when
I tell them to read The
New York Times, they have
no idea what I'm talking
about. What they say is
they go to Google. That's
what The New York Times
is. What do you say to the
executives at The New York
Times, using that as an
example, who have a $500
million ad budget, that
you are... Why are you not
just the parasite?...
Eric Schmidt:
Well, in
fact, we have a big deal
with The New York Times,
and with a bunch of other
newspapers, for precisely
this. And what we do, when
people come to Google
looking for news, we send
them to The New York
Times, and we also show
some of our ads on their
sites, and they get the
majority of the revenue.
So they make money, both
on the traffic coming to
them as well our ad
system, along with their
own advertising.
Jim: All right, now let's
speak about the... a
question that, again, I'm
trying to address all the
questions that are holding
the stock down in my view.
You've got a tremendous...
the amount of downloads in
YouTube are extraordinary.
But over the...
Eric Schmidt:
Do you know
it's up to 1.3... let's
see... 1.3 million minutes
ever 10 minutes of upload.
In other words, every
minute, we're putting that
many videos in. It's
unbelievable.
Jim: But, at the same
time, what advertiser
wants to put a 30-second
advertisement on
YouTube?... Who wants to
look at that, versus the
advertisements we're using
at the Olympics now, which
are just gigantic... $1.7
billion in revenue. I
mean, isn't it true that
people just don't like ads
on YouTube?
Eric Schmidt:
But we
haven't figured that model
out yet, right... You're
comparing a 50-year-old
mature model, which worked
really, really well once
every four years, right...
in the Olympics... or once
every two years... versus
something which is
completely beginning. We
know we have enormous
amounts of traffic.
Literally hundreds of
millions of people
watching those videos...
Jim: So you're just saying
that somebody will figure
it out in your
organization?
Eric Schmidt:
And
hopefully, it's going to
be us that figures it out.
So we're trying different
things. We tried pre-roll
and post-roll and so
forth. Not any one of them
is really got it... we've
got a couple of new ones
coming out in the next
month. We'll give them a
try.
Jim: You're making so much
money that we don't have
to worry about it, right.
It isn't like it's going
to hit your bottom line
here...
Eric Schmidt:
It does hit
our bottom line big time
right now... but,
eventually, we'd like to
make some money at it.
But, even if we don't...
even if, ultimately, it's
a loss leader... let me
tell you that the fact
that so many people come
to YouTube means that they
ultimately go to Google
and do Google searches and
click on ads. So don't be
too worried about all that
traffic going to YouTube.
I'd be worried if people
weren't using YouTube...
Since it's an enormous
success globally, we know
we will eventually benefit
from it.
Jim: All right, last
question to Eric Schmidt,
the CEO of Google... I
want to know... The press,
everyday... It's kind of
like the iPhone...
Everyone says the Android
is coming, the Android...
you'll never see anything
like the Android... There
could be a September
release... Here, I'm
talking about mobile
computing which...
Remember, Google is
dominating, taking big
share from Yahoo, for AOL,
from everybody, when it
comes to desktop... but
owning mobile may be up to
you guys developing
Android and being
successful. Where is it?
How big it can be? Can you
give me a Steve Jobs' "10
million this year" kind of
thing?
Eric Schmidt:
No it can't.
Jim: Why not?
Eric Schmidt:
Because it
hasn't shipped yet.
Jim: Okay, but tell me...
Eric Schmidt:
It's going
to ship between now and
the end of the year. It's
software...
Jim: No, no, no... I need
"September"... I need
"October"...
Eric Schmidt:
...between
now and the end of the
year, and it's going to be
software...
Jim: Well why don't you
just take away my ratings,
and give them to some
other show?...
Eric Schmidt:
And, by the
way, it's software, so
it's really going to be
other people... And our
goal is to get lots of
people to use the software
to build a new platform...
a completely different
kind of platform than
anybody else...
Jim: Well, like cloud
computing...
Eric Schmidt:
Absolutely.
Jim: Oh, by the way, your
last... There was a
Pacific Crest speech that
one of your guys gave that
just basically said that
cloud computing is
interesting, but that
Microsoft should be
terrified. Should
Microsoft be terrified by
cloud computing?
Eric Schmidt:
I never
worry about Microsoft.
Jim: Very smart. Eric
Schmidt, you are a
delight... CEO of
Google... and where's my
pen? I want to write
Google $750... Well,
whatever, you get the
point!
[NOTE! What
follows below are the comments
from an additional interview
that same day, later aired on Jim's
11pm full Mad Money show on
August 13th... ]
Jim: Before Google... After
Google... After Google, the
world has changed... A lot
of people feel that maybe
we've seen what could be the
peak, or peaking, of
Google... although I totally
disagree. But let's get it
from the man, Eric Schmidt,
Chairman and CEO of Google.
Eric, I'm looking at the
world and thinking, okay,
desktop... you've got about
60% of it. It could go to
80%. But there are two other
aspects of Google that I
think are - from 2010 to
2020, and then 2020 to
2030... I'm talking about
YouTube and mobile...
Eric Schmidt:
But where does
this "peaking" thing...?
Jim: Because I read all...
I'm stuck! I have to deal
with the canon as presented
by the analysts who were
trying to justify why your
stock fell from $530 to
$480... peak, peak, peak!...
That's what they do!
Eric Schmidt:
But don't they
study the growth of the
internet? The internet is
getting bigger, right...
Jim: No they don't. They try
to justify stock moves
after, because they're like
baseball reporters, trying
to explain why the Phillies
lost last night.
Eric Schmidt:
This makes no
sense to me. Look, the
internet is getting really
big. It's going to be really
big in the U.S. It's getting
even bigger outside the U.S.
People are moving more and
more from offline to
online... everything we do.
And not just Google, but all
over the place, whether it's
your communication devices,
your phones... talking about
the way people view things
on YouTube... it's an
enormous transition...
Jim: How big YouTube... how
big?
Eric Schmidt:
I don't
know... it will
eventually... it's certainly
more viewers today than the
national...
Jim: Give me a sense of
where we were last year
versus where we are now.
Eric Schmidt:
I don't know
it's growth rate, but it's,
you know, doubling fairly
quickly.
Jim: How many people are
down... what are people
downloading?... Just in the
last hour... in the last
hour, while you and I were
talking, what's happened?
Eric Schmidt:
Well, people
upload... upload... 13 hours
of video to YouTube in 1
minute. I sit there and go,
oh my God, what is that
stuff?
Jim: And how much time is
consumed say, on average per
day, by people watching it?
Eric Schmidt:
Well the
average person watches three
minutes, and we have
hundreds of millions of
viewers... so think about
how much time is being
wasted, or learning is being
created... God knows, all
right... It's a big, big
phenomenon... It's so much
larger than any of the other
video things that we've
seen, that we know that
YouTube will have a
significant cultural impact.
Jim: So, even though we're
talking about only $100
million, right now, in
revenue, you don't feel you
overpaid for it?
Eric Schmidt:
Oh, no, no,
no. Not at all. Because,
remember, every one of those
people who uses YouTube is a
big Google user, so they're
more likely to use Google.
So, from our perspective,
whether you come in from
YouTube, or you come in
through News or through
mobile, as long as you're
going to end up using
Google, and you're going to
touch some of those ads,
we're going to make some
money from it.
Jim: All right, a little
Narcissism... I had a
YouTube video about a rant
that I had about the Federal
Reserve that had about 3
million uploads... If I get
an Android... actually more
than 3 million but, you
know, at a certain point, I
have false modesty... If I
get an Android, which I
will, will I be able to call
up that YouTube video?
Eric Schmidt:
Absolutely.
And you'll be able to call
it up on all the other
mobile devices as well.
We're not favoring one or
the other. We want you to
watch you everywhere you
can.
Jim: Okay. Well, I like
that. I certainly will take
that. Now, is there...
Eric Schmidt:
And, finally,
doesn't it make more sense
to watch it on a device?...
You know, the three
minutes...
Jim: Oh, completely.
Eric Schmidt:
Because it's
personal... then anywhere,
you can tell the device,
hey, all I care about is Jim
Cramer... then all it's
going to do is everything
that shows up on YouTube is
going to show up on the
device, and be right there.
It's like a Jim Cramer
channel.
Jim: Can you tell me about
this bar code feature, where
I might be able to be in a
window and do comparative
shopping?
Eric Schmidt:
Yeah...
somebody wrote an
application... it's really,
really neat. Because, you
know, these cameras... If
you think about it, phones
are computers with a GPS
with a camera. Oh, and by
the way, you can use it to
talk. So somebody wrote an
application which it take a
picture of a barcode and
then it compares what's in
the store to what's online.
Think about it.
Jim: So I know on the spot
whether I'm going... I don't
have to bring in a receipt
from Best Buy to show
Circuit City that I could
get it cheaper...
Eric Schmidt:
Yeah, really
interesting...
Jim: Well that's going to
change retail.
Eric Schmidt:
Again, you
wonder... why are people
using all this internet
stuff? Because it's really,
really helpful. It lets them
have a better time, they
save money, they learn more,
they're better educated,
they entertain themselves
better. The internet is just
the right answer.
Jim: Okay. Two things that
had concerned people that
has seemed to have gone away
completely. One is that you
were spending too much hire
people, okay... And the
second is that there is a
belief that, at a certain
point, you would outspend
just for cap ex (i.e.,
capital expenditures).
You've got cash building so
big.
Eric Schmidt:
Well, the good
news about Google's business
is that it's got very, very
good cash flow. And we focus
on cash flow. We look at
sort of absolute cash that
we can generate, and we're
doing fine there. Uh, we're
absolutely investing in
capital, because we think
one of our competitive
advantages is these very
large, very sophisticated
data centers that have all
of this information that are
very difficult to reproduce.
With respect to hiring, you
know Google is a fast-moving
company and sometimes we
sort of run a little ahead,
and we ran a little ahead a
couple of quarters ago, but
I think we got that under
control.
Jim: Uh, young people watch
my show in incredible
amounts. We have a
demographic that's about 28
years old.
Eric Schmidt:
That makes
sense.
Jim: There's a lot of people
who want to work at Google.
I saw in your conference
call, you literally mention
the fact that there is a
hiring bump after kids
graduate. How, if I wanted
to be... I'm watching the
show right now... I'm at
UNC, or I'm at, uh... we had
a lot of callers this week
from the University of South
Carolina... from Sun Devils
out at Arizona State. How
can I get a job?
Eric Schmidt:
Well, in the
first place, you've got to
have the right criteria and
you have to pass a whole
bunch of tests. We send
people to universities. We
actually interview them, and
the people we're looking for
are very unusual. They're
very smart, very creative...
technical, non-technical...
and there's usually
something interesting about
them. We hired a rocket
scientist, even though we
don't build rockets. We
hired a doctor, even though
we're not medical people.
You know, we love people who
are Olympians, speaking of
the Olympics. We like people
who are exceptional.
Jim: Okay. Are there
other... I mean, I use
Wikipedia. I go to different
sites and Yahoo... Are there
things with your cash horde
that you can just say, okay,
you know what? Tomorrow, I
want Google to be better
than Wikipedia.
Eric Schmidt:
But why would
we want to do that? But
Wikipedia, by the way, is a
tremendous success. In fact,
if you look at Google's
results, Wikipedia is often
one of the top 2 or 3
results (from any given
search on Google). It is a
remarkable testament to
volunteerism, management...
you know, the founder of
Wikipedia and so forth...
it's so successful. Why
would we want to compete
with that? We want to
partner with everybody who's
creating great content and
changing the world.
Jim: I think one of the
reasons why you are not
going to run into my worry,
which is about anti-trust
and the government is that
you are not trying to wipe
out the competition, are
you?
Eric Schmidt:
Well,
certainly not in the content
area. We are an advertising
and distribution company. So
we have direct competitors
there, but we need every bit
of high-quality content,
including your show,
right?...
Jim: Okay, thank you.
Eric Schmidt:
No, including
CNBC, the whole bit. We need
all of that content all
throughout Google and
YouTube, whatever. We need
it because people watch it.
Jim: There are a lot of
websites that could have a
lot of advertising that
can't hire a lot of ad sales
people. What's your advice
to websites that are really
starting to explode, but
would love to team up with
Google, in order to be able
to get more advertising?
Eric Schmidt:
Well, here's a
way to think about it. Let's
say you're going to found a
new company... you know, you
founded TheStreet, which is
hugely successful...
Jim: Right, thank you.
Eric Schmidt:
Let's say you
decided to found another
thing. What would you do for
sales? The first thing you'd
do is you'd use Google. The
second thing you do is you'd
use Google. The third thing
you'd do is you'd use
Google, and then you might
use Yahoo or Microsoft or so
forth. And that's before
you'd hired your first
salespeople.
Jim: That is the model.
Eric Schmidt:
So, that is
the model going forward,
because it's so inexpensive
to get customers, because
it's literally cost per
acquisition. So, what I
think you want to do is you
want to look at an existing
business and say, well,
maybe I should have mostly
Google and the other online
services, and then the
minimum number of sales and
service people that I need
to finish that out. Maybe I
have too many, sorry to
say... But, with the new
business, if you're going to
found it, you founded it
using online first.
Jim: Right, right.
Eric Schmidt:
And, by the
way, you will need some. You
won't be perfect. It won't
be just... it's not just
computers. You will need
some people... some service
people and so forth. But
it's so much more
productive, so much more
profitable.
Jim: Now, there are very few
chinks. But, anytime you
have a chink, I know you
talk about it, which is
really pretty amazing versus
what companies do. In the
last conference call...
Maybe I'm reading through
the tea leaves, but it made
me feel like maybe, right
now, you're not thinking
you're getting... that
either side should be happy
with the MySpace
relationship right now.
Eric Schmidt:
Well, we said
that the MySpace deal, which
we entered into voluntarily,
and in an excited way...
that social networking uses
are not monetizing at the
same level as products. And,
if you think about it, if
you're on a social network,
you're less likely to click
on an ad to buy something
than you are if you're
looking for a product. It
makes sense. So we have not
yet, in my opinion,
developed the killer product
for that space, but we're
working on it. And I said
before, in YouTube, we've
not yet quite developed the
right product there. YouTube
is different than
television... different ways
of advertising... different
ways of reaching users...
but it will be developed,
and hopefully it will be by
Google.
Jim: One year ago... It
seemed impossible, the
things that have happened.
Give me a perspective... one
year ago versus where you
are now... If you can,
again, not talking earnings
per share, but one year from
now where you could be.
Eric Schmidt:
Well, Google
is growing. And we're
growing globally. We have a
lot of new products coming.
You've already talked about
Android, right, which I know
you're very interested in.
There's a lot more stuff
coming. But I would tell you
that core search is not
solved yet. We still have
too many answers. The web is
getting so much larger.
We've got to introduce all
of these other technologies
and content and so forth
into it... So I think
there's a lot of new search
coming. In ads, we have some
new ideas about how to do
ads' targeting that are even
more... more precise... than
what we have today, and
those are coming into
development.
Jim: The last concept that I
want to talk about, because
it was it was right at the
top of your last conference
call, and a lot of people
are buzzing about it is,
what is cloud computing, and
what does it mean to people
that currently charge a lot
of money per seat for
software now?
Eric Schmidt:
It's like we
were talking earlier about
in a company. If you were to
found a software company
today, you would not build a
heavy piece of software, and
try to sell it for thousands
of dollars a seat.
Jim: No, but you did say in
the same conference call
that people thought that IBM
would go away, and it never
went away.
Eric Schmidt:
But IBM has
turned itself into a
tremendously-talented
services company.
Jim: Right, right...
Eric Schmidt:
It's not a
software company anymore of
that kind. So, today, if you
were to found a company, you
would not try to build a
$10,000 per seat software.
You'd have a web service,
and you'd monetize it using
other ways... with a
subscription, or ads, or so
forth. That's the new model.
The problem for existing
companies is that they have
those kinds of businesses...
Jim: Right...
Eric Schmidt:
...and they
have to find a way to bridge
that gap. It's called
"crossing the chasm"... It's
incredibly difficult... it's
incredibly difficult for you
to make that transition.
And, by the way, Microsoft
is an example of a company
that's facing that issue.
But it's clear to me that
the future is cloud
computing, and apps that are
resident on the cloud.
Jim: It's one of the
reasons, by the way, that I
like Marc Benioff at
Salesforce.com. He clearly
gets it.
Eric Schmidt:
And, by the
way, Salesforce.com is a
very good example.
Jim: Eric Schmidt, thank you
so much. Really great to
talk to you. Congratulations
on all the work you've done.
Really fabulous.
[
End of Interview ]
. . . . .
Outrage of the Day:
The banks... how about the
brokers?... They're all
going down huge... How about
WB? Are you surprised at the
crushing of that one? BAC?
You shocked there? LEH? Does
it surprise you? As the
ignorant media and the
academics analyzing short
selling debate the merits of
whether that ban (affecting
short selling) that just got
removed worked, I'm looking
at the empirical right there
on my screen... right now...
The measurements of the rule
are only taken into account
from the day the rule went
into effect until yesterday
(when it expired).
How stupid!...
The big move came up in the
banks, as the hedge funds
reduced their positions in
anticipation of the SEC's
action. When it was clear
that the SEC wasn't going to
broaden the rule and,
instead, just run away and
scrap it, the hedge funds
saw it... They knew it was
an "all clear" sign. The
analysts who wanted to carry
favor with the hedge funds
knew it too! And they came
in with estimate slashes...
Can I just tell you
something?... The SEC let us
down. Now, we're going to
all owe $500 billion...
That's my expectation,
because the FTC is going to
be hooked for a lot of banks
(i.e., bank failures).
. . . . .
Final Remarks:
Jim: I'm taking
advantage that this is a
live show (looking at his
computer screens)... I'm
watching the tape here...
natural gas... clearly
bottomed at $8 bucks, all
right... The nat gas
stocks are red-hot.
Nancy Pelosi (the Speaker of
the House)... I'm reading in
the paper that she's going
to give in. She
doesn't want the democrats
to lose because of offshore
drilling. That means
Transocean Inc. (RIG).
They're the only guys that
have the rigs.
Oil... It bottomed at $110.
We're now range bound oil...
I like oil down here.
I like it for a couple of
days.
Ultimately, the banks... the
shorts are going to overplay
their hand, but that's not
going to be until Day
Four... stayed tuned.
Keep powder-dry banks for
Monday!
[ End of 1:30 "Mad Money: At
The Half" Show Comments ]
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