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  Monday, 08/18/08
Posted 08/18/08,  07:39 pm ET

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Today's date:  Monday, 08/18/08

  Dow Jones: 11,479   -  180
  NASDAQ:   2,416   -   35
  S&P 500:   1,278   -   19
 
 
 
 
 
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See today's 1:30pm show comments below... 

Note:    During the two week period, 8/11-8/22, Jim Cramer's 6pm show has been replaced by Olympic games' coverage. Therefore, CNBC is airing special abbreviated half hour segments, called "Mad Money At The Half"... as well as the normal Mad Money, full-hour shows, at 11pm.

Given this later schedule of only an 11pm showing (vs. the normal 6pm showing), all full show recaps will be posted as soon as possible on the following business mornings.

Beginning of the 1:30pm show comments...

.  .  .  .  .

Introductory Comments:


Jim:   Look at this... What do we got?... a little defense action... steel finally getting strong... iron turning around... That's a little change in pace... Oh, look at this... we've got Freddie Mac (FRE), obviously the big negative of the day, right?... that's breaking down to new lows... CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS), the drug stocks aren't handling themselves... There's an oil driller going back up... maybe something is going on with oil... maybe we'll get a turn here... Fertilizer, the only fertilizer play not up is bungee... Just a second... Bank of America (BAC) down horribly again...
Mastercard (MA)... signaling that maybe non credit related is still doing okay...

Why don't we go to Bob Pisani from the New York stock exchange... he's musing over the same things I am... Bob...

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH BOB PISANI ON CNBC:   Bob, thank you, and you're absolutely right... There was just no reason to say what they did... We end up in a situation where we have complete uncertainty, the absolute worst thing we could do... All right, we're getting nickel and dimed today, nothing real brutal, nothing real ugly, but just enough to make people feel like maybe there is something bigger around the corner... There's going to be a sell off coming, a storm coming, like this hurricane Fay, or natural whatever it is, tropical, who cares... getting tired of reading about these storms... I am not buying it... I think that what we have here is just some serious profit taking after a really good three week ride...

Plus oil, no doubt it may be going lower... Natural gas ripped through $8 earlier today... But you know what?... The stocks are telling me as we watch the tape at the beginning that a reverse could be occurring in oil and gas... When we reverse in oil and gas, it then causes people to sell in tech... Remember, that is what people do... it doesn't make sense to you and me, it doesn't matter... The big hedge funds, they see oil going up, they bang down tech... Of course, they bang down the banks, and as Bob Pisani said from the floor, we didn't need treasury telling us, listen, we're not worried about it... obviously if they're worried about it, they're out of their minds... We're all deathly afraid of it... They ought to be if not...

So, we give up some gains... nothing major, but certainly rougher than we thought four or five hours ago... We all know what happens in this business... it all happens from the floor up... But in the end, what I care far more about is the underpinnings of the two most important things that have been wrong with the market... One is whether the demand side is falling apart... I keep hearing demand destruction... That's another one of these clichés... I'm never going to say it on my show... I can't say it... it means absolutely nothing to you... And the other one is housing... Well, look, to get a big piece of the puzzle, we need to know about the commodity side...

.  .  .  .  .

CEO Interview:
Jim Hackett, CEO
Anadarko Petroleum (APC)

Jim's comments BEFORE the interview:
There are very few people who understand commodities and understand natural gas and oil better than my guest...

My guest is Jim Hackett... he's chairman, president and CEO of Anadarko Petroleum (APC), long a Cramer favorite... generated great returns until very recently... Come on out Jim... How are you doing?

.  .  .  .  .

Jim's comments AFTER the interview:
Jim Hackett, CEO of Anadarko Petroleum (APC)... I think people have to be a little bit more sensitive to the idea that the stock has come down harder than almost any, the group has come down ridiculously hard... If you can wait for the California initiative in November, which will show, point-blank, that the states are going to be putting, California is always first, billions of dollars in natural gas and natural gas vehicles... you're going to make a lot of money with APC...

.  .  .  .  .

Outrage of the Day:

Gold, finally bottoming, obviously turned right here... $790 going to $806... that's spooking people... We like gold, going down, copper, trying to holding in... aluminum, getting news out of China, they're producing less aluminum, doesn't cause a bounce... Soy, what's going on there?... Well, Merrill Lynch made that big call about the Potash (POT), actually it was about Monsanto (MON)... Is MON really a biotech company?... I don't know... I am still a believer that as long as oil is going down, we simply do not want to own the fertilizer stocks... I said it to a bunch of guys this weekend who mobbed me down at the Jersey Shore... I said guys listen, as oil is going down, it ain't working...

Look, what do you get when you combine the Iranian missile launch like we had last night, a war between a huge oil producer and a country with an important pipeline, and how about a hurricane in the gulf?... maybe a month ago we would've gotten oil to $150... No, now we get lower oil and gas prices... Remember when we used to hear all of that stuff?... about how well oil is up $5 bucks because of Nigeria... oil is up $7 bucks because of... Wait a second!... Unlike the vast majority of the media, and almost all of traders people interview, I have been screaming on Mad Money that the price increase has nothing to do with all this nonsense...

It had to do with supply and demand... And the supply has been more than adequate... while the demand had been veracious, okay?... things went up... but we still did not have enough to be able to turn back demand... When we hit the level that was the end of the oil, the level where supply overrun demand... I've always said that we would get to a level where the consumer just gawks at the pricing... and we hit it... It was $4.50 at the pump... And we're still hitting at many of the pumps... I mean look, I'm paying $3.67... but of course, I went 25 miles out of my way to get it... that's how you get rich...

Until we get to the place that oil being pumped could be pumped we would not see an end to the rally... Then bingo, we hit it... Big... and one of the great bear markets I have ever seen... the bear market in commodities has begun... led by the stunning decline in oil and, more important, as we heard from Jim Hackett at Anadarko Petroleum (APC), the incredible plunge in natural gas... $13.80 to $7.80, where it was this morning before the reversal...

And now the consumer is still not coming back... the consumer is still cutting back... the big cars are still not being sold... I saw some figures coming out of Vietnam the other day... Hummer sales were like nonexistent... Can you believe the Vietnamese buy Hummers?... I'll tell you... The Chinese are still not buying, and I'm not buying and it's all Phelps and his gang... I love Zucker but I'm getting a little tired of it... The weather is not cooperating with the burning down of inventories, and we have had a freefall...

And tell me you don't think we are going to fall through $110 shortly?... which is something that the
Oil Services Holders (OIH), which is what I watch... put that on your screen and scream it to you... The reversal from this morning is the classic tell of what's happening with the stocks, okay?... and the reversal the whole market... and I still believe that the commodities are heading lower and any opportunity that you get to be able to scale out of these, you have to take... for the short termers... the out years, the deep water plays, the Transocean Inc. (RIG)'s, the Owens Corning (OC)'s... they are particularly being hard and they are telling you that the long term story seems to be coming under increased pressure... Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK), XTO Energy Inc. (XTO*), Ultra Petroleum (UPL), ultimate nightmares...

If you're buying these stocks, you're doing so because you think at some point we will hit equilibrium and the consumer comes back... I have been saying that happens at $110 in the commodity... I'm thinking, judging by the action, we've got to swing further than that before we get there... Exxon Mobil (XOM) was at this price when oil was at $90 a barrel... Chevron (CVX), at this price, when oil was at $90 a barrel... I think they're good forecasters... But I need you to promise me... Next time the media and the traders throw you off the scent of what's really happening by jabbering about this Nigerian shooting, or some tropical storm, or Iranian infraction, remember what happened today... Don't be fooled anymore... You will make much more money that way... Last I looked, that's what matters.

.  .  .  .  .

CEO Interview:
Bob Iger, CEO
Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

Jim's comments BEFORE the interview:
People who watch Mad Money regularly know that I am not just a reporter, okay?... I advocate positions... I suggest that you buy certain stocks... I particularly suggest that you buy certain stocks as presents for birthdays, for the holidays... The one that has come up over and over again is Walt Disney Co. (DIS)... because I think DIS is an undervalued stock... But let's get on the man who may know more about whether it's undervalued than I do... It's Bob Iger, president and CEO of DIS... Bob, welcome back to the show...

.  .  .  .  .

Jim's comments AFTER the interview:
Thank you, thank you Bob... Bob Iger, thank you very much, president and CEO of DIS... Understand... Procter and Gamble company, 20 times earnings, Colgate, 21 times earnings... They can not develop hits the way this man and this company can... This company at 14 times earnings is a travesty... I think it goes higher... I think you should get on it before they report the next quarter.

.  .  .  .  .

Final Remarks - What 2 Watch For:

There are two hours left in the trading day... Here's what to watch for... We've had almost every single firm cut numbers in the banks and the brokers... Particularly the brokers in the last few weeks... There is only one left... And what I'm going to tell you is that this group is one that people want to get into, not out of... Fannie and Freddie not withstanding...

So, I think you've got to pick your spots...

The single greatest trade of the year was buying Wachovia Corp. (WB) at $9... is buying Bank of America (BAC) still 10 points lower... You have to understand that that's what people are after...

Now here's two stocks that you have to keep on your screen... Lowe's (LOW), reported what I thought was a really good quarter... Stock is up obviously in a very bad market... And then look at
Macy's (M)... go back over the M conference call if you get a change... That company, not just TJX (TJX), but that company reported a great quarter, and it's hanging in.

[ End of 1:30 "Mad Money: At The Half" Show Comments ]

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Trading Price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


APC

56.42

na

Anadarko Petroleum (APC)

DIS

32.08

na

Walt Disney Co. (DIS)


 

 

 

 



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