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Thursday, 01/03/08
Posted 01/04/08, 12:39
am |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Thursday, 01/03/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
13,056 |
+ 12 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,602 |
- 6 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,447 |
+0 |
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Final Segment 1
Title: |
'The Sell Block'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Sell:
Legg Mason Inc. (LM)
American International
Group (AIG)
Countrywide Financial Corp.
(CFC)
Capital One Financial
Corp. (COF)
Buy:
Eastman Kodak (EK)
Sprint Nextel Corp.
(S)
Google Inc. (GOOG)
Unitedhealth Group, Inc.
(UNH*)
2nd segment picks
below...
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JJC:
This is another
'redemption song' Sell
Block... I'm talking about
the redemptions that are
now hitting Legg Mason
(LM)...
a stock that begs to be
sold.
For all you homegamers,
who are new to the term,
'redemptions'... that's
when investors ask for
their money back.
This is a story with a lot
of angles, but it starts
with the performance of
Bill Miller... LM's
legendary money manager,
and his abysmal
performance this year...
He apparently lagged the
market by nearly 10%.
This is coming on the
heels of a similarly
disappointing 2006.
When that happens, you
know what happens?
Investors pull their money
out...
. . . .
.
. . . .
.
For six straight quarters,
money has been pouring out
of LM's domestic equity
mutual fund, and there
have been net outflows in
four of the last seven
quarters in the whole
mutual fund division...
that's the redemption
song.
Since LM makes money
taking a cut of the assets
they manage, this is most
surely terrible news for
them...
. . . .
.
But selling LM isn't our only
conclusion here.
It's definitely a big
conclusion, especially today,
with the stock up for all the
wrong reasons... It's up because
State Street (STT),
a very good firm, is taking care
of its sub-prime problems.
But STT is an asset manager, and
it's gaining monies, and putting
the litigation risk behind it.
I believe that LM is not doing
either of those things. It
has a ton of this structured
investment vehicle product...
it's got a ton of exposure to
that... I know, it made
some write downs, but no, that's
the last thing we expected from
a firm with such a great
reputation.
Frankly, we - meaning me - were
aghast... We thought we were
investing with Tiffany. It
turns out we were shopping in a
home shopping cubic zirconium
production...
And that's not even mentioning
the fact that
Citigroup (C*)
owns 7% of LM's shares
outstanding and Vikram Pandit,
the new CEO... he's got to be
itching to sell... especially
with the stock up so much today.
C* needs the money.
They've got to pay for that
dividend, and I think Pandit
will dump his LM shares, even
before he contemplates cutting
the dividend.
But, as I said, this Sell Block
is about more than just LM...
This is about what LM's funds
will have to sell, because of
the redemptions.
Even though Bill Miller's
performance hasn't been any good
this year, he does own some
worthwhile stocks. And,
because he's going to have to
sell, I believe, to meet the
redemptions, you could get some
great buying opportunities...
On the other hand, he's going to
have to sell some real clunkers
too. I don't want you to
think about those. As a
matter of fact, I want you to
get out of them before he
crushes them with his redemption
song.
. . . .
.
The sells?...
Legg Mason Value Trust,
the huge flailing flagship
fund, run by Bill Miller,
has some big positions in
some real stinkers...
including
AIG (AIG)...
They've got Countrywide
(CFC)...
If you want to own CFC,
you should own the
preferred... don't you
dare own the common. And
then one that I really
think is...well, I'm
trying to be polite, but
it's very difficult, which
is Capital One
(COF)
- sell, sell, sell!
I don't like these stocks,
and the fact that they're
probably going to be hit
by some huge institutional
selling here, in response
to Miller's investors
clamoring for their money
back... makes me want to
tell you to use any
strength to get out...
. . . .
.
But his selling should
also create some buys...
He could knock down
Eastman Kodak (EK),
which he has a huge
position in, represents
7.2% of their shares
outstanding... We're
on record liking EK.
If Bill Miller's a seller
of EK, I'd buy it.
They own 5.1% of Google (GOOG)...
Now maybe that's why the
stock's going down.
Maybe he's knocking it
down to pay some of the
redemptions. It
makes sense right?
It's a big $600 stock.
That's definitely a deal
that I'd take...
They own 1.2% of
Unitedhealth
(UNH*)...
UNH* I own for
my charitable trust...
I'm up nicely on it.
If he knocks that stock
down to $54, I'd be a
buyer of it... It
could happen.
How about
Sprint Nextel
(S),
which he owns?...
Now that stock is all the
way down to $13
We've hated it all the way
down but, at this level...
He owns 1.7% of it.
It's too cheap, especially
if Tim Donahue is given
some money to be able to
take it over, which is
what should happen.
That would definitely be a
buy. At $13...
$12... I want to own the
stock.
. . . .
.
When this kind of thing
happens... when a
high-profile manager,
running tens of billions
of dollars, starts to
falter, and gets hit with
redemptions, there are
opportunities, and there
are stocks to avoid.
Bill Miller is just about
the highest profile guy
out there, so this is
really going to create
some serious negative
pressure on a lot of
stocks, but the most
important one is Legg Mason
(LM).
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Legg Mason
(LM)'s
troubles aren't LM's
alone... Don't wait for
Bill Miller to sell his
AIG (AIG)
or his Countrywide
(CFC)
or his Capital One
(COF).
Do take advantage if he
knocks down Kodak (EK)
or
Sprint Nextel
(S)
or Google (GOOG)
or UNH
(UNH*)...
and, hey... if you
actually like LM, you
should wait for
Citigroup (C*)
to sell at least a chunk
of it before you would
possibly
pull the trigger.
How long are they going to
kill our profits?
. . . .
. |
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
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LM |
73.43 |
na |
Legg Mason Inc. (LM)
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AIG |
56.45 |
na |
American International
Group (AIG)
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CFC |
8.77 |
na |
Countrywide Financial Corp.
(CFC)
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COF |
46.67 |
na |
Capital One Financial
Corp. (COF)
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EK |
20.95 |
na |
Eastman Kodak (EK)
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S |
12.97 |
na |
Sprint Nextel Corp.
(S)
Price target to buy:
$12-13.00
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GOOG |
685.33 |
na |
Google Inc. (GOOG)
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UNH* |
56.93 |
na |
Unitedhealth Group, Inc.
(UNH*)
Price target to buy:
$54.00
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Final Segment
2 Title: |
'Mad Mail' |
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. . . .
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Featured
Stock(s): |
See specific stocks
below... |
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. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
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RAD |
2.28 |
2.28 |
'Mad Mail'
Rite Aid Corp.
(RAD)
Q:
I'm confused.
You consistently
talk about
keeping 20% of a
portfolio in
speculative
stocks. I
recall you
saying that
gains from a
spec winner can
be enormous - a
double, triple
or more.
You've also
said,
'speculating can
keep investing
fun.' So,
why on last
night's show did
you say '... the
lesson to be
drawn from the
gains and then
losses in
Level 3
(LVLT)
and
Rite Aid
(RAD)
is that, when
you have a gain
in speculative
stocks, you have
to sell them'?
Are you getting
cold feet?
You can't have
it both ways, so
which is it?
Jim:
I do talk about
this endlessly
in this book -
Stay Mad For
Life...
Now here's the
deal...
When you're up
on speculation,
you should take
some profit.
If I said all
profit, that's a
mistake.
If you had sold
some, at least
you would have
gotten something
out of it.
RAD... the drug
stores today
were so bad...
the RAD bonds
traded down.
I have to tell
you... I just
want to be very
careful.
If you have a
nice gain, take
some off the
table.
That's really
what I meant to
say. And
I'm sorry if I
confused people.
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CELG |
49.85 |
49.57 |
'Mad Mail'
Celgene Corporation
(CELG)
Q:
I'm trying to
keep the faith
with
Celgene
(CELG),
but it's getting
harder and
harder as I find
myself in the
house of pain.
What's going on
here? May
I have your
latest thinking?
Jim:
Well, they
finally got...
Hartz got
clearance to
make that
acquisition, so
the stock's
starting to go
up... Have
I lost some
faith in it?...
Candidly, yes.
But the stock's
moving up.
Let's see where
it can go.
It's obviously
not as good a
story anymore.
We need to see
the quarter...
Look, I don't
want to back
away from it.
Let's see where
it goes.
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[
end of final segment ]
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Go to the next segment from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
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Symbol keys: |
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A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
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Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about. |
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Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms": |
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Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back... |
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Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you. |
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Definition: 'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock). |
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Definition: 'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >> |
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Helpful Websites: |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Warren
Buffett's portfolio
of
stocks at:
warren-buffett-portfolio.com |
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Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
StockHomework101.com
This site is coming soon.
Thank you. |
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FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
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made by the great Fast Money
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to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
Fast Money Recap - Trades
for next day...
Compare these picks to Jim's
comments for the same
stocks. |
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Important disclaimer: This site is
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Please rely on watching the show
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