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Wednesday, 01/09/08
Posted 01/09/08, 11:18
pm |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Wednesday, 01/09/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,735 |
+ 146 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,474 |
+ 34 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,409 |
+ 18 |
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Final Segment 1
Title: |
'Battle Of The
Analysts'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Salesforce.com (CRM)
2nd segment picks
below...
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JJC:
To understand how tough
this market is - down 200,
up 100 - I want you to
look no further than the
battle of the analysts...
that's now being waged -
right here, right now -
over
Salesforce.com (CRM)...
. . . .
.
On Monday, UBS upgraded it
to a 'buy'...
And Goldman simultaneously
downgraded it to an
outright 'sell'...
Normally, when two
analysts come into
conflict over a stock,
they disagree about some
fundamental issue of the
business, of the
company...
Not with
Salesforce.com (CRM),
and that's why this
market's so hard...
. . . .
.
But what's amazing about
CRM is how much the
analyst at Goldman - which
took it to a 'sell' - and
UBS - which took it to a
'buy' - agree on... even
as one of them downgrades
and the other one
upgrades...
They agree that CRM is the
best-run company as a
software in the service
industry... They agree
it's got the best
management...
They agree that CRM has
fabulous recurring revenue
from all these licensing
deals...
They agree that the
business they're in -
software as a service - is
clearly the future... and
they agree that there's no
doubt that their quarter
is en fuego (i.e., on fire
- doing very well)... This
is amazing...
They both agree on this...
even as Goldman downgrades
the stock, they
acknowledge that CRM is
the leader in one of the
fastest-growing
industries.
. . . .
.
Now, I agree with all
these shared conclusions,
so how could anyone
downgrade the stock to a
sell?...
Because this stock market
is so hard. And,
even though CRM is a great
company, Goldman is
worried about the
risk/reward... You see,
the stock is priced for
perfection, and this is
simply not an environment
where you want to own a
stock that will plunge, if
it stumbles even
slightly... and I dont'
think it's going to
stumble... I think the
next few points are up...
but that's not the point
here.
Goldman and UBS disagree
on that risk/reward, and I
am more in favor of
Goldman here, because I...
Look, you're watching my
show, and you trust me,
and I don't want to have a
chance of losing a lot of
money to just make a
little bit of money...
I think that CRM, if you
own it... Tomorrow, if it
rallies... I think the
Nasdaq's going to rally...
I think tech's going to
rally... I think you
lighten up on CRM.
You see, the questions
here aren't about the
business. They're
about the hype...
Isn't all the good news
priced into the stock?...
Are there any upside
catalysts coming?...
Doesn't Wall Street
already know this story
well?... Meaning, everyone
who wants to buy it
already has it...
And CRM isn't cheap...
Hmm...
These are the questions we
need to ask even the
greatest companies,
especially with the
gloomy, bitter market that
alternates with the
fabulous market (we saw)
today...
. . . .
.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Even great
companies can be too
expensive. In this
tough market, the bar on
what's too expensive is
lower than it would be if
things were going
smoothly.
Salesforce.com (CRM)
is one of those terrific
businesses that's saddled
with a stock that I think
is more likely to hurt you
than help you... and
that's what I've got to
do...
. . . .
. |
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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This holiday's
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Most popular
investing books ordered:
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Amazon.com) |
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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CRM |
54.33 |
53.98 |
Salesforce.com (CRM)
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Final Segment
2 Title: |
'Am I
Diversified'... |
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. . . .
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Featured
Stock(s): |
No new stock
picks... |
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. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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na |
na |
na |
'Am I
Diversified'
Segment...
In this segment,
JIm takes calls
from viewers to
critique their
top five
holdings, to
indicate whether
they are,
together,
relatively
diversified as a
standalone
portfolio.
. . . .
.
No fresh stock
picks.
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[
end of final segment ]
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Go to the SUDDEN:DEATH
SEGMENT from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
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Symbol keys: |
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A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
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Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about. |
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Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms": |
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Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back... |
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Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you. |
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Definition: 'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock). |
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Definition: 'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >> |
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Helpful Websites: |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com | | | | | |
