We need a safety net, right?...

We need something that's got to stop it... where we feel like, jeez, if we buy something, we're not going to get crushed.

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So where do we try to find some relative safety in this market, because remember, it's about capital preservation, because we're in a bear market...

One of the things that we want in a stock... and you have to own stocks... because, over any 20-year period, stocks have outperformed, so we can't leave the market, but we want to have some defense...

We want a stock that can help defend us from Uncle Ben Bernanke's (Fed Chairman) relentless march to recession... 

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You want stocks that aren't too economically sensitive... You want stocks that have good balance sheets... You want stocks that have safety...   You don't want stocks that have to beg, borrow or steal to get by...

And finally, yes, yes... you want to have downside protection that's better than treasuries... stable income, as we try to struggle throught the Fed-mandated destruction of wealth... Little did we know that the masochistic Ben Bernanke would take us all down with him...

Now we've always been focused on a foot race between AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), as the two best dividend stocks that we like, outside of Altria (MO*)...

I felt T was overvalued recently, versus VZ, when they were both at $42.

Now things have changed.  VZ is still at $42.  But, because of the press... because the press thought that Randall Stevenson, the hard-charging CEO of T, issued a guide down, based on consumer weakness, at a Citigroup conference last week, T got crushed.  It fell hard.  It was unbelievable...

Now Stevenson was asked about whether the economy had hurt his business, and he said that obviously the consumer has seen a bit of a slowdown, but that it would NOT impact numbers, because other things like wireless are going like gangbusters...

The comments about the consumer were then translated into a widely considered pre-announcement to the downside.  But we know personally from speaking to Stevenson, after said it was a guide down in TheStreet.com where I write everyday, that's not the case...

There was not pre-announcement.   There was no guide down.  Stevenson told me emphatically, that it was simply a comment on the obvious economic weakness, but that it would not affect the numbers when they're reported.

He made it clear to me - let's say ultra-clear - that I was wrong in saying that he'd guided down, and that the consumer declines are not something new...

So, now you've got to start thinking that the stock is down after a fictional guide down, and I think the numbers will be just fine.

You need to say to yourself, opportunity is knocking... 

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The Bottom Line!:    The stock's down 10% from where we didn't like it... a yield bigger than Verizon (VZ)'s... with a quarter in the bank... with a recession that we feel is here... you should be able to buy AT&T (T) with confidence and, more important, you can buy more if we get another point or two of decline, because I don't see the stock yielding 5% in this cycle.

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