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Thursday, 02/07/08
Posted 02/07/08, 8:57
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Thursday, 02/07/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,247 |
+ 46 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,293 |
+ 14 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,336 |
+ 10 |
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Final Segment 1
Title: |
'The Sell Block'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
All Tech Stocks.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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JJC: Is this
where tech makes a
comeback, because of the
intraday rally in tech?...
Is this a real move, from
a group that's fallen far
enough to bottom?...
No.
No, I am not buying it...
. . . .
.
You are getting a terrific
opportunity to sell some
tech here, into what I
suspect will be a viscious
oversold rally in a tech
bear market...
I'm telling you this,
because I know what's
going on in your head...
You think hmmm...
Cisco
(CSCO)
bounced from $21 to $23...
Well, isn't that the
signal?... What a great
opportunity to buy a stock
that has great long-term
prospects, even if, short
term, it's slowing...
What a magnificient moment
to snap up some software
stocks... aren't
they down too much?...
Microsoft (MSFT)...
I mean, isn't that doing
the right thing, when it
comes to the online
marketplace?...
Surely
Intel (INTC)
can't stay down here
forever, right?...
Texas Instruments (TXN)...
National Semiconductor (NSM)...
What's not to like?...
How about
Apple (AAPL)?...
Can't we buy that?
Hasn't that been punished
enough?...
Aren't the prospects for
Google (GOOG)
super here?...
To which I say... For a
trade... yeah... maybe...
But, as an investment, no.
. . . .
.
True, the resilience of
the tech business isn't
bad, but the resilence of
the stocks?... Well that's
Cramerica's territory...
and that's a different
story, and it's one that
belongs in the Sell
Block...
. . . .
.
Every year, right about
now, we see an amazing
thing happen with tech...
The big institutions
decide to abandon the
stocks, they bought last
fall, in droves...
It happens every year,
right around the Goldman
(Sachs) tech conference,
which is in a couple of
weeks...
The institutions might as
well be the invisible
hand, except they're so
hard to miss... They're
the judges of the fashion
show that is the market,
since they control so much
of the money in it...
and make so many of the
trades. I call them
the arbitors of what
everything is worth... so,
when they bail on tech,
tech gets slaughtered...
Tech is uniquely seasonal,
meaning that the summer is
always bad...
always.
. . . .
.
In 16 out of the last 17
years, the period starting
at the end of February,
and lasting until the last
week of August, has led to
horrific under-performance
in tech.
Nightmarish, when compared
to any other group...
You can't invest in it.
But, given how beaten up
tech is right now, it
could work as a trade,
from here until the
Goldman conference in
Vegas, two weeks from
now...
Everyone there will bask
in the glow of growth and
momentarily take the group
higher. But what
happens in Vegas must stay
in Vegas, and that
includes tech optimism...
I firmly believe that
hanging onto tech, past
the next couple of weeks
and the conference, would
be a big mistake, and not
just because of
seasonality...
. . . .
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When
Cisco
(CSCO)
reported, we learned that
the weakness in their
business had already
spread to Europe...
So I think you'll have a
negative cyclical trend,
because economies there
are beginning to soften,
to go with the seasonal
decline... That's 2 and
2... Man, that's
just too much heat... too
many things can go
wrong...
This year also, because of
the Fed cuts, you're going
to see money flow out of
tech, even more stronger
than ever, and will go
into these early-cycle
stocks I keep harping
on... Yes, that's retail,
that's banks, that's
finance...
You've got seasonality,
the economic weakness in
Europe, and low rates all
conspiring against tech
stocks... I call it
a toxic combination...
. . . .
.
Now, how pronounced will
it be?... Let's look at
our screens today...
We're all so happy that
CSCO could bounce...
But let's talk about a
disaster...
Bear Stearns (BSC)
is a disaster...
This morning, when I was
co-hosting Squawk Box,
Charlie Gasparino reported
that it's possible that
the Feds might indict, not
just individuals, but the
actual firm...
When the Feds indict a
firm, it closes a firm.
That would almost
certainly close BSC.
So now, unlike tech...
you've got a business gone
bad, you've got earnings
vanishing, you've got
horrible turnover and,
now, an indictment?
Holy cow, I mean,
shouldn't that stock be
down $10 today?...
What's the stock
doing?....
It's going up.
It went up today.
Yeah, it went up.
That's incredible, just
incredible...
My takeaway... Use
the bounce at the start of
a CSCO going off the lows
to escape tech. If
you really nibble, I'm
sure you can buy it and
then flip it again... I
think that's not your
style...
But I am warning you...
Come the end of February,
when the Goldman Sachs
conference occurs, you
will be clobbered by the
elephants running out of
tech to greener
pastures... I
don't want you trampled...
The deadly combination of
economies slowing,
businesses spending less
globally on tech to save
money, however
short-sighted that is, and
the ticking bomb that is
the summer, will make
tech, and the people who
own it, perform worse than
any other sectors...
. . . .
.
For two years, we've been
giving you this warning
right now, but never as
pronounced as it is now...
and people are still
thanking us for saving
them, in previous years,
from huge losses in tech.
. . . .
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The Bottom Line!:
Don't touch tech until
August... You've
been warned.
. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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na |
na |
na |
All Tech Stocks.
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'On The Line'
CEO Interview
Bruce Carbonari, CEO
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Fortune Brands (FO)
See FO's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
FO
here.
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Jim's comments BEFORE
the interview:
For as
long as I can remember,
Norm Wesley, who used to
be the CEO of
Fortune Brands (FO)...
always pretty much
delivered on a combination
of housing - faucets,
cabinets, golfing -
Titleist, Footjoy, and
spirits... Now, it's just
high... Canadian Club,
Sauza, Pucker, Jim Beam...
and it always worked.
But, this last quarter, it
didn't, and analysts have
turned against it...
I'm trying to figure out
whether this combination
has lost its pizazz, or
whether the housing
downturn is so great, that
we have to wait until
things pick up, before we
can buy FO.
But we've got a new CEO
and President, whom
everyone tells me is a
total stand-up...
Maybe we can get some
answers here. It's
Bruce Carbonari... Sir,
welcome to Mad Money...
. . . .
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Jim's comments AFTER
the interview:
I don't
know... If you think that
the housing crisis is
going to end within the
next six months, you buy
Fortune Brands (FO)...
If you think it's going to
take longer, I say you
have sit on the
sidelines...
[See Jim's past comments
on Mad Money about
Fortune Brands (FO),
pre-searched for you
here >> ]
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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FO |
65.88 |
65.44 |
Fortune Brands (FO)
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[
end of final segment ]
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Go to the SUDDEN:DEATH
SEGMENT from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
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Symbol keys: |
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A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
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Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about. |
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Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms": |
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Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back... |
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Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you. |
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Definition: 'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock). |
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Definition: 'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >> |
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Helpful Websites: |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Warren
Buffett's portfolio
of
stocks at:
warren-buffett-portfolio.com |
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Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
StockHomework101.com
This site is coming soon.
Thank you. |
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FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
Fast Money Recap - Trades
for next day...
Compare these picks to Jim's
comments for the same
stocks. |
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© 2005-2007 MadMoneyRecap.com ■
Important disclaimer: This site is
not affiliated with Mr. James
Cramer, and is not associated with
any television networks or
broadcasts. Please note that all
thumbs up or thumbs down
indicators are not always clearly
indicated on the show and are
interpreted by us as accurately as
possible. Some comments have been
edited for brevity and clarity,
and extraneous material omitted. Please rely on watching
the show yourself, doing
your own homework,
and reading the text of the
comments to draw your own
conclusions. Also, data presented
on this site should not be used to
make investment decisions and
accuracy, although attempted,
cannot be guaranteed. Please
consult with your own financial
advisor for professional advice. |
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