Thursday, 03/13/08
Posted 03/13/08,  9:55 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 03/13/08

  Dow Jones: 12,145     + 35
  NASDAQ:   2,263     + 19
  S&P 500:   1,315       - 6
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
Final Segment 1 Title: 'The Sell Block'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Nokia (NOK)

See NOK's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for NOK here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


JJC:   Knowing when to sell is the hardest part...  That's why I have so many rules and disciplines about selling incrementally... That's the point of this 'Sell Block'...

I'm going to give you a stock that I kind of don't like that much, but you're going to sell it on the way up, rather than just all at once.  You see, when you're up, and knowing when to cut your losses... or, when you've got a great gain... the decision to sell is so fraught with emotion... that I like to take out the emotion...  I give you some objective guidelines to make the selling easier...

You see, even when I have a stock that's flashing a neon sign to get out... it's still selling... we're going to talk about it, and not do it all at once... and that's the subject of tonight's 'Sell Block'...

.  .  .  .  .

On Monday, I got one of these... let's just say, "big chinks" in the armor of a stock that I've liked, okay?...

And it made me want to wait until today, because we had an oversold rally, and it's going to continue... to say to you... and this one's painful... it's really painful... 

But I want you to begin selling Nokia (NOK)...

What was the sign telling me that I had to come out here and take a stock that I have liked forever, and tell you to start scaling out of it?  Remember, when I say 'sell' - in this particular instance - I don't want you to dump all your shares...

I think the market's going up for the next four to five days...  This is a great opportunity to get out of things I don't like as much as I used to.  We are in an oversold rally.  They can even last two to three weeks...  So, what you have here is a great opportunity to sell NOK higher in this rally, before the Street figures out what I'm about to tell you...

We're ahead of the curve on this one, and I want you to take advantage of that.

.  .  .  .  .

Here's how I know it's time to scale out of Nokia (NOK)...

On Monday, Texas Instruments (TXN) gave us their fabled mid-quarter update...  which, by the way, Texas Instruments... you should stop doing this.  It's a waste of your time...  and TXN lowered guidance...  I thought for sure it was just going to be the usual here...  because of reduced wireless demand forecasted from March, from a large wireless customer...

Hmm... who could that customer be?...

Well, nobody's ever named as a specific company in these conference calls, but I know how to read between the lines...

The story got worse on the conference call.  Here's what we heard from TXN...   This is a quote...  "Lower demand is coming from wireless, but I would say especially it would be the high-end, or 3G, products..."  

That's a problem...  Weakness in demand for all the snazzy phones, with all the bells and whistles... 

TXN made it very clear that the company in question wasn't losing market share.  It was just lower demand.  That's not Motorola Inc. (MOT), which I thought was what caused the weakness, when I saw the headlines from TXN...   I thought, oh... MOT is hurting this company again...  No.  No.   This fits with everything we've said about NOK...  They're #1 in the business.  They're taking - or at least retaining - share.  They've got the best 3G.  They've got the best intellectual property...

TXN was talking about Nokia...     

.  .  .  .  .

NOK is one of the few remaining tech stocks that I've stayed positive on this show, and I have saved you a lot of money, hopefully by taking off the four horsemen, except for Research In Motion (RIMM), and by getting you out of this group...

Although, I said today... Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Intel (INTC)...  I'm starting to warm up to them... and, in the fall, those will be terrific.

.  .  .  .  .

But I have to put NOK in the 'Sell Block' now, as TXN seems to be telling us that demand just isn't there for their high products...

This is painful for me.  I love Fins...  I think it's a great, great company...

This oversold rally gives you a chance to scale out of NOK, higher than where it is right now.  We'll probably get another week of positive action, and I want you to use it to scale out of NOK...  It's been a huge win for us in Cramerica.  It's up 100%...  100% since I recommended it on April 21st of 2005.   A great long-term gain, and we have stuck with it all the way...  It's up 14% since I said it was a buy over the summer, on July 24th... 

.  .  .  .  .

NOK may be the best of breed, in a really horrible sector of telco equipment, and you know it's horrible... but you have to sell it in the face of lower demand, because people are going to discover this...

You got it very early.  People are going to discover this...

.  .  .  .  .

In the face of competition also... It's going to be brutal, coming from two different directions...

NOK dominates the low-end... but it's defending its position from a hurting Motorola (MOT) and Ericsson (ERIC) complex, that needs revenue so badly, that I think it's willing to cut prices dramatically just to get share... to get back in the game.

Here's the most difficult one...  It's not happening yet, but it will happen by the end of the year, I believe...

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is hitting them on the high-end with the iPhone...  It's a little too expensive right now, but listen to me...  I think the iPhone story is just getting started, particularly overseas, where they have better distribution than in America...

That means a lot of pain coming for NOK a year from now...

.  .  .  .  .

Tech isn't exactly in favor right now, which makes it all the harder to justify owning NOK.  You have to do some selling here...

You want to know the most darning thing?...  The Street is just so darn positive on it... it's too adored.  19 analysts have NOK as a buy or outperform...  4 that are at neutral... and nobody saying sell.

Were they not on the TXN call?  Perhaps...  because it was the semiconductor analysts that were on the TXN call, not these NOK analysts...

And maybe they didn't realize that Apple Inc. (AAPL) signed this historic deal with Microsoft (MSFT) that's going to make it so your cellphone is the only computer you'll need.

There's no one left to upgrade the stock.  I see 19 buys...  I think some of them will become holds or sells...  You've got to get out before that happens.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      As long as we're reading the comments from Texas Instruments (TXN) correctly - and I believe we are - the signs are clear...  I need you to scale out of Nokia (NOK), right into this oversold rally...  Hey, put your money in cash and, if you have to own tech, I am saying that Apple Inc. (AAPL) is getting right... and that Intel (INTC), under $20, is right... Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is falling apart.

 

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


NOK

32.68

32.71

Nokia (NOK)


AAPL

127.94

129.99

Apple Inc. (AAPL)


INTC

21.28

21.39

Intel (INTC)
Price target to buy:  Under $20.00


AMD

6.73

6.83

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)

         

 

 

 



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Second Segment
 
 
Final Segment 2 Title: 'Mad Mail'...

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): See comments below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Sudden:Death picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


na

na

na

Mad Mail

Carlyle Group (a popular hedge fund - not publicly traded)

Q:  
 Carlyle seems to be suffering from the same fate as Long Term Capital Management (LTCM).  In those rare cases when a financial firm ultimately fails, a bottom is often signaled. What are your thoughts?

JJC:
     No.  That's too small a firm.  It's not big enough to signal... it can't bring down the system like LTCM...  remember, there's always something else that can hurt you when you think you have a risk-free strategy...  

 

       
 

 

[ end of final segment ]

   
 

Go to the SUDDEN:DEATH SEGMENT from tonight's show here >>

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Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
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