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Thursday, 03/13/08
Posted 03/13/08, 9:55
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Thursday, 03/13/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,145 |
+ 35 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,263 |
+ 19 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,315 |
-
6 |
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Final Segment
1 Title: |
'The Sell Block'
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Featured
Stock(s): |
Nokia (NOK)
See NOK's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
NOK
here.
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC: Knowing
when to sell is the
hardest part...
That's why I have so many
rules and disciplines
about selling
incrementally... That's
the point of this 'Sell
Block'...
I'm going to give you a
stock that I kind of don't
like that much, but you're
going to sell it on the
way up, rather than just
all at once. You
see, when you're up, and
knowing when to cut your
losses... or, when you've
got a great gain... the
decision to sell is so
fraught with emotion...
that I like to take out
the emotion... I
give you some objective
guidelines to make the
selling easier...
You see, even when I have
a stock that's flashing a
neon sign to get out...
it's still selling...
we're going to talk about
it, and not do it all at
once... and that's the
subject of tonight's 'Sell
Block'...
. . . .
.
On Monday, I got one of
these... let's just say,
"big chinks" in the armor
of a stock that I've
liked, okay?...
And it made me want to
wait until today, because
we had an oversold rally,
and it's going to
continue... to say to
you... and this one's
painful... it's really
painful...
But
I want you to begin
selling
Nokia (NOK)...
What was the sign telling
me that I
had to come out here and
take a stock that I have
liked forever, and tell
you to start scaling out
of it? Remember,
when I say 'sell' - in
this particular instance -
I don't want you to dump
all your shares...
I think the market's going
up for the next four to
five days... This is
a great opportunity to get
out of things I don't like
as much as I used to.
We are in
an oversold rally.
They can even last two to
three weeks... So,
what you have here is a
great opportunity to sell
NOK higher in this rally,
before the Street figures
out what I'm about to tell
you...
We're ahead of the curve
on this one, and I want
you to take advantage of
that.
. . . .
.
Here's how I know it's
time to scale out of
Nokia (NOK)...
On Monday,
Texas Instruments (TXN)
gave us their fabled
mid-quarter update...
which, by the way, Texas
Instruments... you should
stop doing this.
It's a waste of your
time... and TXN
lowered guidance...
I thought for sure it was
just going to be the usual
here... because of
reduced wireless demand
forecasted from March,
from a large wireless
customer...
Hmm... who could that
customer be?...
Well, nobody's ever named
as a specific company in
these conference calls,
but I know how to read
between the lines...
The story got worse on the
conference call.
Here's what we heard from
TXN... This is
a quote... "Lower
demand is coming from
wireless, but I would say
especially it would be the
high-end, or 3G,
products..."
That's a problem...
Weakness in demand for all
the snazzy phones, with
all the bells and
whistles...
TXN made it very clear
that the company in
question wasn't losing
market share. It was
just lower demand.
That's not
Motorola Inc. (MOT),
which I thought was what
caused the weakness, when
I saw the headlines from
TXN... I
thought, oh... MOT is
hurting this company
again... No.
No. This fits
with everything we've said
about NOK... They're
#1 in the business.
They're taking - or at
least retaining - share.
They've got the best 3G.
They've got the best
intellectual property...
TXN was talking about
Nokia...
. . . .
.
NOK is one of the few
remaining tech stocks that
I've stayed positive on
this show, and I have
saved you a lot of money,
hopefully by taking off
the four horsemen, except
for
Research
In Motion (RIMM),
and by getting you out of
this group...
Although, I said today...
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
and
Intel (INTC)...
I'm starting to warm up to
them... and, in the fall,
those will be terrific.
. . . .
.
But I have to put NOK in
the 'Sell Block' now, as
TXN seems to be telling us
that demand just isn't
there for their high
products...
This is painful for me.
I love Fins... I
think it's a great, great
company...
This oversold rally gives
you a chance to scale out
of NOK, higher than where
it is right now.
We'll probably get another
week of positive action,
and I want you to use it
to scale out of NOK...
It's been a huge win for
us in Cramerica.
It's up 100%... 100%
since I recommended it on
April 21st of 2005.
A great long-term gain,
and we have stuck with it
all the way... It's
up 14% since I said it was
a buy over the summer, on
July 24th...
. . . .
.
NOK may be the best of
breed, in a really
horrible sector of telco
equipment, and you know
it's horrible... but you
have to sell it in the
face of lower demand,
because people are going
to discover this...
You got it very early.
People are going to
discover this...
. . . .
.
In the face of competition
also... It's going to be
brutal, coming from two
different directions...
NOK dominates the
low-end... but it's
defending its position
from a hurting
Motorola (MOT)
and Ericsson (ERIC)
complex, that needs
revenue so badly, that I
think it's willing to cut
prices dramatically just
to get share... to get
back in the game.
Here's the most difficult
one... It's not
happening yet, but it will
happen by the end of the
year, I believe...
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
is hitting them on the
high-end with the
iPhone...
It's a little too
expensive right now, but
listen to me... I
think the iPhone story is
just getting started,
particularly overseas,
where they have better
distribution than in
America...
That means a lot of pain
coming for NOK a year from
now...
. . . .
.
Tech isn't exactly in
favor right now, which
makes it all the harder to
justify owning NOK.
You have to do some
selling here...
You want to know the most
darning thing?...
The Street is just so darn
positive on it... it's too
adored. 19 analysts
have NOK as a buy or
outperform... 4 that
are at neutral... and
nobody saying sell.
Were they not on the TXN
call? Perhaps...
because it was the
semiconductor analysts
that were on the TXN call,
not these NOK analysts...
And maybe they didn't
realize that
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
signed this historic deal
with
Microsoft (MSFT)
that's going to make it so
your cellphone is the only
computer you'll need.
There's no one left to
upgrade the stock. I
see 19 buys... I
think some of them will
become holds or sells...
You've got to get out
before that happens.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
As long as we're reading
the comments from
Texas Instruments (TXN)
correctly - and I believe
we are - the signs are
clear... I need you
to scale out of
Nokia (NOK),
right into this oversold
rally... Hey, put
your money in cash and, if
you have to own tech, I am
saying that
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
is getting right... and
that
Intel (INTC),
under $20, is right...
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
(AMD)
is falling apart.
. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|

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NOK |
32.68 |
32.71 |
Nokia (NOK)
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AAPL |
127.94 |
129.99 |
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
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INTC |
21.28 |
21.39 |
Intel (INTC)
Price target to
buy: Under
$20.00
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AMD |
6.73 |
6.83 |
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
(AMD)
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at
Amazon.com) |
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Final Segment
2 Title: |
'Mad Mail'... |
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. . . .
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Featured
Stock(s): |
See comments below... |
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here... |
. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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|
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|

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na |
na |
na |
Mad Mail
Carlyle Group (a
popular hedge
fund - not
publicly traded)
Q:
Carlyle seems
to be suffering
from the same
fate as Long
Term Capital
Management
(LTCM). In
those rare cases
when a financial
firm ultimately
fails, a bottom
is often
signaled. What
are your
thoughts?
JJC:
No. That's
too small a
firm. It's
not big enough
to signal... it
can't bring down
the system like
LTCM...
remember,
there's always
something else
that can hurt
you when you
think you have a
risk-free
strategy...
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[
end of final segment ]
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Go to the SUDDEN:DEATH
SEGMENT from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
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Symbol keys: |
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A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
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Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about. |
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Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms": |
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Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back... |
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Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you. |
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Definition: 'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock). |
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Definition: 'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >> |
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Helpful Websites: |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Warren
Buffett's portfolio
of
stocks at:
warren-buffett-portfolio.com |
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Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
StockHomework101.com
This site is coming soon.
Thank you. |
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FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
Fast Money Recap - Trades
for next day...
Compare these picks to Jim's
comments for the same
stocks. |
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© 2005-2007 MadMoneyRecap.com ■
Important disclaimer: This site is
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Cramer, and is not associated with
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thumbs up or thumbs down
indicators are not always clearly
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interpreted by us as accurately as
possible. Some comments have been
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and extraneous material omitted. Please rely on watching
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