Thursday, 03/27/08
Posted 03/28/08,  06:44 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 03/27/08

  Dow Jones: 12,302   - 120
  NASDAQ:   2,280    -  43
  S&P 500:   1,325    -  15
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'The Sell Block'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Liz Claiborne Inc. (LIZ)
Urban Outfitters (URBN)



See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...



JJC:   In tonight's Sell Block, I'm going to teach you to invest like the pros invest...  I'm going to teach you how the pros sell...

They like to buy one stock of a company that's doing well...  Urban Outfitters (URBN) and, at the same time, sell the stock of another company that's doing badly...Liz Claiborne (LIZ).

This is called "pairs trading"...  and, today, I'm going to show you the ultimate pairs trade.  It's URBN versus LIZ.   If you were a pro, you'd be buying URBN right here... It's on fire with a "hit them where they ain't"...  It just opened three stores in Brooklyn, where the hipsters have attitude...  and LIZ, which is being weighed down by lousy same-store sales, a string of pre-announcements and, yes, faltering brands...

.  .  .  .  .

In a pairs trade, one company has to be really strong, and the other really weak... and that's exactly what we have in these two retailers...

URBN's got three divisions, all of which are kicking butt and taking names...  There's the original Urban Outfitters for the 18-30 (year old) demo... which is growing sales at 18%... same-store sales up 6%...   And then there's Anthropologie, which is for women between 30 and 45... the second-largest franchise, 18% growth, incredible same-store sales growth of 18%... that means the same store is selling 18% more goods than the previous (year)... 

Finally, URBN has Free People, for women in their late 20s, although my youngest daughter likes to shop there.  This is an up-and-coming brand growing sales at a magnificent 30%, with 19% same-store sales increases...

URBN's direct-to-consumer business from online and magazine sales is also growing sales at about 30%.

Everything this company does seems to be working...

Overall same-store sales for the fourth quarter are up 11% in a really difficult environment.  Only Costco (COST) comes near this company, in terms of those numbers.

The CEO of this company, Glen Senk, has the best merchandise eye in the business, short of J. Crew Group (JCG)'s Mickey Drexler (their CEO).  Retailing, despite what you may read in the papers about volume or the quality of whatever, retail is about one thing...  Successful retail is about the eye...  the bad merchants have evil ones... 

.  .  .  .  .

Now let's compare this to the other half of the pairs trade... the half you sell...  Liz Claiborne (LIZ), whose CEO, a nice man, comes from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)...   JNJ?  The last I looked, other than those nifty Scooby-Doo band-aids, they don't have anything cool at all...  Baby powder?  Not all that stylish...

On February 14th, LIZ pre-announced a total disaster... 15-25 cents of earnings per share for the fourth quarter.  Hey, we were looking for 43 cents higher than that.

Their comps are terrible...  For the fourth quarter, same-store sales at Mexx, LIZ's largest brand, down 3%...  Lucky Brands, their 2nd-largest, a 1% decrease...  Their only strength was in Juicy Couture, which reported a 25% increase in same-store (sales), and that was only because of my daughter's concentrated buying...

But the rest of LIZ's brands seem to be flailing...

Now direct sales (i.e., through their stores) aren't even where the big problem is.  Some of those stores might be able to be turned around...  The real problem is in partnered brands, where sales were down 28% year-over-year for the fourth quarter.

You're getting a great chance to sell it again.  It's bounced back, courtesy of that rally that lifted all the retailers... because a rising tide lifts all ships... even a sinking one like LIZ... but I don't think this one should have gone up.

.  .  .  .  .

LIZ is a company that's losing ground.  URBN is a company that's taking it, leaps and bounds...  LIZ is also hostage to one of the great scourges of all apparel, Macy's (M), as well as other department stores...

URBN stands on its own two feet... or three feet, if you think of the divisions...   Macy's happens to be LIZ's largest customer.  They represent 14% of sales.   LIZ's hundred-largest customers - most of which are department stores - make up 67% of sales in the fourth quarter.  They're hostage...

These places are all discounting like mad, in order to make sales, thanks to the slowdown/recession, and they're crushing LIZ in the process...

.  .  .  .  .

So, if you want to sell like a pro, I say you don't just sell LIZ - which ran up in the oversold rally and can, therefore, be sold here...  I dont' recommend shorting, but I know hedge funds are short this... it's too dangerous for my viewers...  or you can buy URBN. 

Sell LIZ.  Buy URBN.  I think LIZ goes lower, URBN goes higher...  There's your profit.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Now you know how to trade like a pro... you know how to do a pairs trade...  You dump Liz Claiborne Inc. (LIZ), you buy Urban Outfitters (URBN)!

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


LIZ

19.55

18.50

Liz Claiborne Inc. (LIZ)


URBN

30.54

30.66

Urban Outfitters (URBN)

 

 

 



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Second Segment
 
 
Final Segment 2 Title: 'Mad Mail'...

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): See comments below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Sudden:Death picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


AKS

52.68

53.69

Mad Mail

AK Steel Holding Corp. (AKS)

Q:  
 AKS has the premier coating line in the world.  It is the domestic leader in stainless and electrical steel.  Not only do you change your mind like a woman, you don't know your steel stocks!

JJC:
     I could very quickly deflect that, and say that that is just a sexist comment - which it was - but I would also add that AKS is not as cheap as United States Steel Corp. (X)... but I agree with you... I like AKS very much.  Stainless steel... be careful.  Russia is starting to flood the market with it.


X

121.52

123.84

Mad Mail

United States Steel Corp. (X)

See AKS comments above for:
X


       


BBI

3.45

3.49

Mad Mail

Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)

Q:  
 I watch Mad Money daily.  I have been trading stocks since January and I must say thank you for the Blockbuster Inc. (BBI) recommendation.  Until I owned that stock, I didn't truly understand the trading around stock price changes.  BBI, if it goes up even 10 cents, can make you a pretty penny if you reinvest that penny when the price falls back down.  It's beautiful.  Thanks Cramer!

JJC: