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Monday, 04/07/08
Posted 04/07/08, 10:51
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Monday, 04/07/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,609 |
- 16 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,370 |
+ 7 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,370 |
+ 1 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'No Stock Left Behind'
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Featured Stock(s): |
Temple-Inland Inc.
(TIN)
See TIN's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
TIN
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC:
Earlier, I said we were
starting some brand new
series today... The first
was "From
Russia With Love" about
stocks from the former
communist Warsaw Pact
countries that
have now become the
world's second-best
capitalists after the
Chinese communists...
Now it's time for my new
series... #2... The 57
flavors stocks... The
Ketchup Stocks!...
that we use on Wall Street
to describe stocks that
are lagging behind other
stocks in their
sector, and need to...
yes... catch up!
These trades only work,
though, when the Ketchup
Stocks deserve to go
higher...
Plenty of bad stocks don't
go up along with their
sectors too, so I'm
finding good ones
that I think have the
ability to play "catch
up"...
Now, our first pick of the
Ketchup Stocks for the
week is Temple-Inland Inc.
(TIN).
Yes, this stock has caused
me some pain, since I
recommended it on March
20th of
2007, at the University of
Texas... and it's down 25%
from where I recommended
it,
when you add together the
share prices of the two
companies it spun off
since then, and
the $10.50 special
dividend it paid in
December...
The last time I talked TIN
spinning off its real
estate and financial
services components,
at the behest of Carl
Icahn... TIN finished the
spinoffs at the end of
2007 and, now,
what's left is a terrific
wood company, that
produces building products
like particle
board, as well as
corrugated packaging...
As you can imagine, the
combination of a weak
housing market and a weak
economy has
been pretty poisonous to
these two businesses...
That's why the stock is
down 31%, since
TIN finished the spinoff.
But now there's some light
at the end of the tunnel!
Pricing should firm up in
2009 and 2010 for the
paper products TIN makes.
And we just
had IP pay $6 billion for
WY's paper products
businesses, which tells us
that this stuff
must be worth something to
someone...
All of this has driven its
competitor,
Louisiana-Pacific Corp.
(LPX), up 25% since March
20th. TIN is only up 11%
since then...
I think this is a better
company. It's profitable
right now... It should
(also) turn a profit
in 2008, while LPX can't
say either of those things
for itself. And, while LPX
does yield
5.4%, I don't consider it
a trusty dividend.
TIN's 3.1% yield, on the
other hand - which is only
so high, because the stock
is so low -
is the picture of
stability...
I know the stock is up a
lot today, off of that
Citigroup upgrade... but,
when you
consider this is a $14
stock that's come down
from $56, hey... that gain
looks a lot less
significant to me...
I think this stock
deserves to "catch up" to
LPX...
. . . .
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The Bottom Line!:
TIN's sector has turned...
Now I think its stock just
needs to play Ketchup...
. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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TIN |
13.98 |
na |
Temple-Inland Inc. (TIN)
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at
Amazon.com) |
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Final Segment
2 Title: |
'Mad Mail'... |
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. . . .
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Featured
Stock(s): |
See comments below... |
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here... |
. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|

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FCX* |
107.02 |
na |
Mad Mail
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*)
Q:
I've been
reading with
interest the
reforms Raul
Castro has
recently
implemented in
Cuba. Is
there a play
here?
JJC:
The play would
be FCX*, because
there's a giant
mine that was
confiscated by
Castro.
Raul does
believe in
nuclear power.
That's about the
extent of my
like for Raul.
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MO* |
21.88 |
na |
Mad Mail
Altria (MO*)
Q:
I can't believe
when you
declared the
King is dead,
and when you
sandwiched him
between Molson
and Miller...
you didn't
mention that the
way to get a
piece of Miller
Beer is through
the new leaner
Altria (MO*),
which owns about
28% of SAB
Miller and still
has that cool
yield. Go
MO*! A
beer, cigarettes
and 5% booyah!
What could be
better?
JJC:
The problem...
is that I've
done MO*
probably more
than any other
stock since the
year began, so
this is just
another way to
play it, but
you've got me
dead to rights.
And those who
say, listen, I
don't want to
sell
Anheuser-Busch
Companies Inc. (BUD),
you know,
listen, I'm not
going to tell
you...
BUD's
inexpensive.
We should look
at that Samuel
Adams situation,
because of the
glass in the
bottle... I
can't get my
arms around that
yet...
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CAO |
11.76 |
na |
Mad Mail
CSK Auto
Corp. (CAO)
Q:
It seems like
no one has even
noticed the
creation of the
third-largest
auto parts
retailer/wholesaler
with the
combining of
CSK Auto Corp.
(CAO)
with O'Reilly
Automotive Inc.
(ORLY).
Is this a
non-event, or
merely
overlooked?
JJC:
I think that
what happened
is, in the
General Motors
(GM)
strike, I didn't
pay attention to
it... But,
you know what?
Memo to staff...
Were going to
look at that...
and, if that
combination
makes sense to
us, we're going
to come right
here and do it.
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CMI |
51.46 |
na |
Mad Mail
Cummins Inc. (CMI)
Q:
During the last
five
recessionary
periods,
trucking has
been the
best-performing
sector at
greater than
30%.
I was wondering
if you have a
trucking or
trucking parts
play for us?
JJC:
The trucking
parts play is
going to be
Cummins Inc. (CMI)
or
Eaton Corp. (ETN),
and the trucking
play is going to
be Ryder
System, Inc.
(R)...
That's in really
great shape.
By the way, I
think
United Parcel Service, Inc.
(UPS)
is dirt cheap,
and FedEx
Corporation
(FDX)
is up 10 points
since they
pre-announced
the downside.
So those work
too.
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ETN |
81.63 |
na |
Mad Mail
Eaton Corp. (ETN)
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