Monday, 04/28/08
Posted 04/28/08,  10:09 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Monday, 04/28/08

  Dow Jones: 12,871   -  20
  NASDAQ:   2,424    + 1
  S&P 500:   1,396    -  1
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Window Shopping'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Apogee Enterprises Inc. (APOG)

See APOG's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for APOG here.


See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


JJC:   Green Week may be over... long live Green Week... but there's still a lot of money to be made in conservation and the companies that stress it...

Tonight, I've got an under-the-radar play. This is a stock that doesn't have any sponsorship from the big brokerage houses. Some would call it an orphan stock, just waiting to be adopted by a Daddy Warbucks, whose buying could make you big bucks.

You've never heard of this stock. You're going to like it though...

The stock is Apogee Enterprises Inc. (APOG)... and it's part of something called "the green building movement..."

Now I know that this sounds like some Birkenstock-wearin', granola-eating crowds... No. A lot of green stocks looked that way a year or two years ago, but they've had enormous gains, because these are the ways to battle and get back from what you're spending at the pump.

The idea behind green building - which is now a profitable business with ramping growth - is to construct buildings that are more efficient users of energy, letting the companies that own the buildings save enormously on energy costs. I want you to think of this as the Feng Sui, only for electricity instead of Chi...

Now, specifically, APOG is the dominant player in the market for energy-efficient and aesthetic-engineered glass for commercial buildings...

Side note... I just want to put this right up front... the stock doesn't trade well, because the company is perceived to be a residential housing market... It has no exposure to residential housing whatsoever.

Let me give you in plain English what APOG does...

APOG applies an ultra-thin coating to glass that improves the energy efficiency of windows and, as an added bonus, it can also create colors, and protect from hurricanes and bomb blasts. Hey, how about this? It's a hidden terrorism and security play too.

Their glass is being used in President Clinton's presidential library in Arkansas, 7 World Trade Center, the Bank of America tower in New York City, the Oklahoma Federal Building in Oklahoma City... all for blast-proofing...

Green building is a secular growth trend... Everyone wants to use less energy, because energy prices are so high. It's not held back by any of the negative cyclical forces, meaning the weak domestic economy, that the bears just love to harp on...

Green building can reduce a building's energy costs by as much as 30-40%... You're starting to talk about some serious cash... This is an environment where energy is so expensive, it's becoming increasingly apparent that you have to buy an APOG window to save money.

I think APOG is an orphan stock, right to be adopted by some high-brokerage houses, whose recommendations and research will then cause big mutual funds and hedge funds to buy the stock and send it much higher...

Terrific fundamentals here...

Look at APOG's recent quarter, which it reported on April 9th. 49 cents of earnings per share. The Street was looking for 45 cents, okay... Revenues grew 18%... Upside earnings guidance for 2009... They talking about making $1.82 to $1.94 a share. Consensus estimate was $1.72.

This was a monster beat, but no one cared, because no one in a major firm follows this company.

APOG's margins also expanded. That means its profitability - the percentage of each dollar of revenue that becomes profit... This company is executing fabulously...

APOG had closed at $16.84, before the earnings announcement, and then it opened as soon as the number came out, at $19.87. It hasn't looked back yet. Although, today, we did get a good pullback, down about 4% to $20.59, which is why I think it's so important that you focus on it now.

This is less than a dollar above where you could have bought it right after its great quarter.

The company has the largest backlog (i.e., pending orders sold, but not yet filled) in its history... $510 million. That's 87% of its market cap...

Remember when we did backlog with GlobalSantaFe, and we got that nice bid from Transocean (RIG)?... I always look at backlog. This company has so much backlog, versus its market cap. I think you've got to think about it.

I know management has....

They've increased their stock buyback by 750,000 shares in January. They bought shares in their most recently-reported quarter... about this, the company said, "we hadn't repurchased shares for several quarters. We felt it was an attractive investment now."

And that was, for them, because they paid an average... oh boy, they got in... at $15.96. If APOG is inclined to keep buying, it's got 1,911,000 left in its buyback program. It can go higher...

Okay, five analysts cover the stock, but they're all at smaller firms... Piper Jaffrey, Cantacourt Adams... Now those places produce great research, but they can't move stocks the way the coverage from one of the big firms, like a Goldman, or a Morgan or a Credit Suisse could...

And, if APOG keeps producing great quarters like its last one, it's just bound to start drawing itself some attention. I want you in before that...

How high can APOG go?... What's APOG's apogee? Like I could resist that...

Right now, the analyst consensus estimate for APOG is $1.87. APOG, I think, can beat that. That means APOG has a lowly price-to-earnings ratio of 11. Man, Eaton (ETN)'s like that. ETN is 9. This is 11. These are all technology companies.

Lowball consensus is that they're growing earnings at 26%, and it sells at 11x earnings? That's absurd.

If you want to use a more conservative number, APOG's long-term growth rate is supposed to be 14%. Hey, why don't we split the difference? Take 20% growth...

My rule of thumb is that stocks with good fundamentals usually trade with multiples between 1x and 2x their growth rate... If we put APOG at that very bottom of the range... If we slap a 20x multiple on $1.87, we're talking about a $37 stock... 80% higher than the current price...

All right, a little caveat here... a small-cap stock... Use limit orders. No one listens to me...

I think... you will be a loser if you pay up in the after-hours... You will be a loser if you pay up tomorrow.

If you want to buy APOG, be sure to wait at least five days from now, before you buy it. That's what we say in
Stay Mad For Life... Now, as I advise in my book, the five-day rule is the best way to outperform...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Apogee Enterprises Inc. (APOG) is a great company with an unknown, unsponsored stock. But I believe that's going to change, and I think you need to be in ahead of that. Five days, and then buy APOG. Buy it before then, and we're all going to laugh at you...

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


APOG

20.59

na

Apogee Enterprises Inc. (APOG)

Price target:  $37.00


       

 

 

 



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Second Segment
 
 
Final Segment 2 Title: 'Mad Mail'...

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): See comments below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Sudden:Death picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

CLNE

12.90

na

Mad Mail

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)

Q:  
  You mentioned CLNE in October when it was trading at about $20. It is now down considerably, and the company has made significant progress in opening 170 CNG (i.e., compressed natural gas) stations, and contracting with various local vehicle fleets. The chart looks good to me. There is essentially no debt. Would you revisit the stock, and give your more current views?

JJC:
     It's an aggressive growth stock. It was difficult to get a handle on the earnings versus, say, the revenues. More traditional people might want to go with an Eaton (ETN), which makes hybrid engines, that I think is probably a safer play... It's a spec, it's a spec...

ETN

87.63

na

Eaton Corp. (ETN)

See CLNE comments above for:
ETN

COST

70.83

na

Mad Mail

Costco (COST)