Thursday, 05/01/08
Posted 05/01/08,  10:47 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 05/01/08

  Dow Jones: 13,010   + 189
  NASDAQ:   2,480    + 67
  S&P 500:   1,409    + 23
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'The Sell Block'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Tonight, Jim placed traditional tech into the Sell Block...

No specific stock sell recommendations, except what's indicated in Jim's comments...



See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's SUDDEN:DEATH picks here >>


JJC:     You've heard all week about the new tech stocks... the stocks that are in the Ohio Valley... the stocks that are in Camp Hill, PA... the stocks from the industrial heartland... those are the techs. You know the industrials that are engineering new technologies to address the serious life or death issues... the food issue, the oil issue, the defense issue... and they're making serious money doing it.

But now that we've gotten new tech, what happens to regular old tech stocks? The QQQQ? The Nasdaq... the four-letter guys... What happens to tech? What is to be done?...

It's time to put tech... the tech that you and I know as tech, before Cramerica got to it... yeah, tech like Intel (INTC)... tech like Seagate (STX)... tech like Celestica (CLS)... tech like Cisco (
CSCO)... It's time to put that tech - sell, sell, sell - in the Sell Block, and throw away the key...

Why?...

With very few exceptions, I think tech stocks as we think them, have stopped being truly innovative. Step back from the P/E, and the Texas Instruments (TXN) quarterly update... step away from the National Semiconductor (NSM) beat or not beat... These companies have stopped trying to use their know-how... how to tackle big problems... and, make no mistake, the big problems are where the most opportunities are...

Most tech companies aren't even trying... They don't even imagine anymore... they don't even try... And, yet, they still get sky-high multiples, compared to the new tech stocks, even though their organic growth has slowed to the point where, on average, the old tech players are growing earnings at a significantly slower pace than the new tech stocks: Eaton (ETN), Parker Hannifin (PH), Harsco (HSC), Joy Global (JOYG), Bucyrus (BUCY)... they're all growing much faster than any Silicon Valley company, with the exception of maybe Google (GOOG)...

You don't believe me? You still think tech stocks are worth what the Street's paying for them? Okay... Let me go through what the whole tech sector has really devolved to... every different kind of business that's considered tech, okay... so you can see how played out these stocks are...

It's almost humorous, I've got to tell you... Here's what tech is...

Pretty much every tech company falls into one of two categories. It's either... I'm not kidding, this is so embarrassing... tech is either about making the workforce more productive in a service economy, and that includes software to make employees sell better... and the best of that is Salesforce.com (CRM) or Oracle (ORCL)... Or, you get companies like Seagate (STX) that store data on a disk, instead of paper... whoop de-doo... That's the first branch of tech... high tech... the kind that lets you effure more effective salespeople... wow... a real Manhattan project.

The second kind of tech makes... get this, this is really important, in terms of survival, in terms of energy independence, in terms of hunger... video games, good cell phones, stuff for music...

These companies either make you a better salesman or a better gamer... That's what tech is... You can pretty much fit every tech business into the salesman or gamer categories...

And some are even more useless than they sound...

Dell (DELL) and Lexmark (LXK)... what are they? They packagers and stylists of PCs and printer parts. Wow... that's tech...

I believe every one of these categories is stale... they have nothing to do with solving the big issues which, right now, are myriad... the food crisis, oil crisis, clean coal, precious resources, making water cleaner, making engines more efficient, saving the rainforests, getting emissions down, getting hard-to-reach oil, getting shale to oil, creating more energy out of all sorts of waste products, making the climate cooler, better wind towers... No... Making cars efficient, making buildings more energy-efficient... No... Making devices that take natural resources like wind, hydrogen, sand, sunlight... into energy... like Cramer-fave, First Solar (FSLR), down today because of oil futures... No. They're not going to do that. They don't care... They're not developing a way to store spent nuclear energy... or figuring out how to get more oil out of grain...

What's the biggest thing they're working on right now in Silicon Valley?... Grand Theft Auto 4! That's ambitious... really teaching our children how to be better felons...

Meanwhile, Eaton (ETN) has a grand plan to reduce truck emissions by 40%... Better felons?... Truck emissions?... In fact, tech is all about theft... Just look at Google, which is the greatest tool ever... ever devised for stealing intellectual property...

Honestly, have these tech companies really produced anything big since email?... Search optimization?... I don't think so...

How about Adobe (ADBE)?... a tech stock that makes you get cleaner documents. How about Tetra Tech (TTEK), which makes cleaner water?... What's more important to you?

Texas Instruments (TXN) wants to make better and better gadgets. First Solar (FSLR) wants to make cheaper and cheaper energy, solving the single most important problem of our time.

I don't even think the people running most tech companies understand that what they could be doing... what the new tech stocks are doing... innovating in ways that matter, solving the real problems out there, and making a bundle doing it.

Instead, they're whetted to the consumer. They've forgotten how to innovate, and only care about how to sell...

Intel (INTC) used to be run by great engineers... Bob Noyes, Gordon Moore, Andy Grove... These days, everyone there feels like a salesman to me.

Look at Microsoft (MSFT)... oh boy... battling to buy Yahoo! (YHOO)... an also-ran par excellence, after developing that incredible tool, that I think may have solved world hunger... the XBOX! C'mon Microsoft!  They've got a hoard of cash... they've got brilliant people working for it... Couldn't the top software company in the world focus its efforts on software that deals with the real issues that the new techs deal with?

But, in the Midwest, where most of new technology companies are based, the manufacturers are building the best technology, and the cheapest technology, in the world to reduce emissions, better harvest our natural resources, create equipment for alternative energy... like Trinity (TRN), up a quick 10% today, because of wind technology...

These companies are ruled by engineers! Innovation is their watchword... They know, because they've got to stay alive. They know what their customers want... These companies have survived the onslaught of foreign competition in the 80s and 90s, and they're constantly making new things to better solve real problems that you and I know exist everyday... Best of all, they're making money doing it.

The old tech stocks have high multiples and slowing growth. I think they have to be sold, in favor of the new tech... where the growth is high, and the price-to-earnings multiples are low.

Here's the bottom line...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Tech stocks are supposed to be innovative, but I don't see much of that, when I look at what most people call tech... I see a bunch of companies trying to do the same set of things... not branching out... not making an effort to go where the money is... and that's why tech belongs in the Sell Block.  

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


na

na

na

Tonight, Jim placed traditional tech into the Sell Block...

No specific stock sell recommendations, except what's indicated in Jim's comments above...


       

 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Second Segment
 
Final Segment 2 Title: CEO Interview:
John McMahon, CEO

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Genesis Lease Limited (GLS)

See GLS's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for GLS here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's SUDDEN:DEATH picks here >>

        
Jim's Comments BEFORE the interview:         On the show tonight, I said I nailed Trinity (TRN), and I said I nailed Cummins (CMI)... You'd think I nailed everything, right? Well how about Genesis Lease (GLS)? Down 49% since I recommended it. Pretty pathetic, huh? Am I pathetic? I don't know. Let's find out what went wrong here.

On the line now is John McMahon, CEO of GLS. Welcome back to Mad Money sir...

.  .  .  .  .

Jim's Comments AFTER the interview:      Look, I obviously have no right or standing to give you a judgment at all... I was so wrong on the thing. If I were at my hedge fund, I would have just said, hey Cramer, go put a post-it sign on your head, Genesis Lease (GLS), and go wear it home, and then put your head in the toilet and flush it...

 

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


GLS

13.94

na

Genesis Lease Limited (GLS)

         
 

 

[ end of final segment ]

   
 

Go to the SUDDEN:DEATH SEGMENT from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>


Netflix, Inc.


Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
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Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
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