JJC:
If there's one thing I
believe in on this show,
it's accountability...
When I screw up, I own it.
And I own it on air...
typically in the most
embarrassing and
masochistic way
possible...
That's why I'm starting
something new this week...
This is "Accountability
Week" on Mad Money...
I'm running a new series
on big calls that I
blew... plays that I just
simply got totally
wrong... calls where I
stepped up to the plate,
and I whiffed...
And I am
pants-ing myself... I'm putting the post-it note
on... because
embarrassment is a
powerful friend of
performance...
Let's start with how I
whiffed on
Google (GOOG),
where I stayed negative
for way too long...
I missed a huge move in
this stock, after it
reported a great quarter
on April 17th... It went
from $449 to $594... Was
Cramer for it? Was Cramer
telling you, all
aboard?... No. Cramer was
saying (trainwreck
sound)...
How the heck did I
underestimate this stock,
that I had been so
correctly bullish on for
so many years?...
Let's break it down...
because there were certain
important things that I
missed... that the Street
missed... that I don't
want you to miss...
. . . .
.
My biggest mistake? I
relied on someone else's
work... I used this
third-party, independent
service called
comScore Inc. (SCOR),
which compiles its own
data, to judge who's doing
well on the internet, to
judge a stock...
comScore has yet to admit
that it screwed up
anything; they tell you
that everything's
fabulous... wrong!
Back on February 26th,
GOOG took a beating when
data from comScore
purported to show that
GOOG's paid
search/sponsored clicks -
that's their key
breadbasket - were down
7%.... down 7% in January,
compared to December...
down 0.3% year over
year...
Now that's just
catastrophic... I based my
assessment of GOOG on
these numbers. As it
turned out, they were
unreliable... as it
actually happened.
I stayed negative.
Everyone else did too.
They all looked at the
same data. But I don't
care about them. I care
about me. I got it wrong.
I own it...
When GOOG reported
earnings, the numbers came
out... and aggregate paid
clicks increased 20%... 4%
over the previous quarter.
comScore and Cramer could
not have been more wrong.
Again, comScore says it's
not wrong. Cramer doesn't
care. Cramer says I'm
wrong...
I relied on someone else's
work... my bad. Mega
bad...
. . . .
.
My next mistake is that I
compared GOOG to
Yahoo! (YHOO),
which I shouldn't have
done, because YHOO's so
poorly run... as well as -
after this weekend - a
disgrace! And a company
that never dealt in good
faith with Cramer-fave,
Steve Ballmer (i.e., CEO
of
Microsoft (MSFT)...
When YHOO does badly,
that's not necessarily
evidence that GOOG's doing
badly... what was I
thinking? It might be
evidence that GOOG is
crushing YHOO... Looking
back, we can see that it
just doesn't work to
compare these two
stocks...
Why? When you combine both
Yahoo and Microsoft - the
second-tier search engines
- they're only 14.8% of
the worldwide search
market.... Google's share?
62.8%... There's no
comparison...
. . . .
.
I also underestimated
GOOG's new revenue
streams. I thought it
would take them much
longer to monetize them...
I didn't know that they
were going to be that
fast, and that good about
it... I underestimated
YouTube... and, given how
many times my video with
(Erin Burnett... the "they
know nothing!" segment)
was aired, I'm really
embarrassed.
Right now, GOOG's in a
great position to
diversify away from paid
search, and into display
ads, now that it's
acquired DoubleClick...
There are all these
applications like GMail
and GoogleReader... These
are all making money! I
thought it would take
longer, so I whiffed and
missed the bottom on those
too...
. . . .
.
The fourth thing I did...
I missed the speed with
which GOOG's international
business would take off. I
thought the weak economy
in the U.S. would hurt
GOOG more than it did... I
wasn't giving the company
enough credit for
international growth and,
make no mistake about it,
GOOG is a
ROW-er... a company that
gets more than half of its
sales from the rest of the
world. We've been blessing
those companies left and
right... but I
misjudged...
International revenues up
14% sequentially, 55% year
over year... more than
half of GOOG's revenues...
In the U.S., revenues were
soft. I got that...
1.2%... 29% year over
year... But international
made up for the weakness,
and then some...
You know, GOOG is the
dominant player
everywhere, except in
China, where
Baidu.com (BIDU)
reigns supreme, and I
didn't give that enough
weight in my analysis.
This is a gigantic trend
and, no matter how
fast-growing GOOG is here,
it's even faster over
there.
. . . .
.
Finally... finally, I
whiffed on calling the
bottom because, look... I
misjudged how hated GOOG
had become... As of April
10th, a week before GOOG
reported its blowout
quarter, the short
interest was humongous in
this thing... it was way
up big... 2.1% of the
float.
Given how far the stock
had already fallen... GOOG
was down 45% from its high
in early November of
2007... a recent low of
$412 on March 17th... the
degree of hatred just
wasn't justified... Hedge
funds should have been
buying GOOG, not shorting
it... But I paid attention
to them. I thought they
knew more than I did.
That's why I whiffed on
GOOG, and missed the
bottom...
. . . .
.
Well, what do we do
now?...
I don't want to
underestimate GOOG again.
It's still trading at just
23.5x 2009 consensus
earnings of 25%... a
long-term growth rate of
28%...
If GOOG just traded inline
with long-term growth, it
would be a $697 stock...
17.2% higher than its
current price.
The stock just spiked...
not right. It spiked off
the YHOO thing. You've got
to wait for a pullback...
. . . .
.