Monday, 05/05/08
Posted 05/05/08,  11:49 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Monday, 05/05/08

  Dow Jones: 12,969   -  88
  NASDAQ:   2,464   -  12
  S&P 500:   1,407    -  6
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Closing Segment 1 Title: 'A Swing And A Miss'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Google, Inc. (GOOG)


See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's SUDDEN:DEATH picks here >>


JJC:     If there's one thing I believe in on this show, it's accountability... 

When I screw up, I own it.   And I own it on air... typically in the most embarrassing and masochistic way possible... 

That's why I'm starting something new this week...

This is "Accountability Week" on Mad Money...

I'm running a new series on big calls that I blew... plays that I just simply got totally wrong... calls where I stepped up to the plate, and I whiffed...

And I am pants-ing myself... I'm putting the post-it note on...  because embarrassment is a powerful friend of performance... 

Let's start with how I whiffed on Google (GOOG), where I stayed negative for way too long...

I missed a huge move in this stock, after it reported a great quarter on April 17th... It went from $449 to $594... Was Cramer for it? Was Cramer telling you, all aboard?... No. Cramer was saying (trainwreck sound)...

How the heck did I underestimate this stock, that I had been so correctly bullish on for so many years?...

Let's break it down... because there were certain important things that I missed... that the Street missed... that I don't want you to miss...

.  .  .  .  .


My biggest mistake? I relied on someone else's work... I used this third-party, independent service called comScore Inc. (SCOR), which compiles its own data, to judge who's doing well on the internet, to judge a stock...

comScore has yet to admit that it screwed up anything; they tell you that everything's fabulous... wrong!

Back on February 26th, GOOG took a beating when data from comScore purported to show that GOOG's paid search/sponsored clicks - that's their key breadbasket - were down 7%.... down 7% in January, compared to December... down 0.3% year over year...

Now that's just catastrophic... I based my assessment of GOOG on these numbers. As it turned out, they were unreliable... as it actually happened.

I stayed negative. Everyone else did too. They all looked at the same data. But I don't care about them. I care about me. I got it wrong. I own it...

When GOOG reported earnings, the numbers came out... and aggregate paid clicks increased 20%... 4% over the previous quarter. comScore and Cramer could not have been more wrong. Again, comScore says it's not wrong. Cramer doesn't care. Cramer says I'm wrong...

I relied on someone else's work... my bad. Mega bad...

.  .  .  .  .


My next mistake is that I compared GOOG to Yahoo! (YHOO), which I shouldn't have done, because YHOO's so poorly run... as well as - after this weekend - a disgrace! And a company that never dealt in good faith with Cramer-fave, Steve Ballmer (i.e., CEO of Microsoft (MSFT)...

When YHOO does badly, that's not necessarily evidence that GOOG's doing badly... what was I thinking? It might be evidence that GOOG is crushing YHOO... Looking back, we can see that it just doesn't work to compare these two stocks...

Why? When you combine both Yahoo and Microsoft - the second-tier search engines - they're only 14.8% of the worldwide search market.... Google's share? 62.8%... There's no comparison...

.  .  .  .  .


I also underestimated GOOG's new revenue streams. I thought it would take them much longer to monetize them... I didn't know that they were going to be that fast, and that good about it... I underestimated YouTube... and, given how many times my video with (Erin Burnett... the "they know nothing!" segment) was aired, I'm really embarrassed.

Right now, GOOG's in a great position to diversify away from paid search, and into display ads, now that it's acquired DoubleClick... There are all these applications like GMail and GoogleReader... These are all making money! I thought it would take longer, so I whiffed and missed the bottom on those too...

.  .  .  .  .


The fourth thing I did... I missed the speed with which GOOG's international business would take off. I thought the weak economy in the U.S. would hurt GOOG more than it did... I wasn't giving the company enough credit for international growth and, make no mistake about it, GOOG is a ROW-er... a company that gets more than half of its sales from the rest of the world. We've been blessing those companies left and right... but I misjudged...

International revenues up 14% sequentially, 55% year over year... more than half of GOOG's revenues...

In the U.S., revenues were soft. I got that... 1.2%... 29% year over year... But international made up for the weakness, and then some...

You know, GOOG is the dominant player everywhere, except in China, where Baidu.com (BIDU) reigns supreme, and I didn't give that enough weight in my analysis. This is a gigantic trend and, no matter how fast-growing GOOG is here, it's even faster over there.

.  .  .  .  .


Finally... finally, I whiffed on calling the bottom because, look... I misjudged how hated GOOG had become... As of April 10th, a week before GOOG reported its blowout quarter, the short interest was humongous in this thing... it was way up big... 2.1% of the float.

Given how far the stock had already fallen... GOOG was down 45% from its high in early November of 2007... a recent low of $412 on March 17th... the degree of hatred just wasn't justified... Hedge funds should have been buying GOOG, not shorting it... But I paid attention to them. I thought they knew more than I did. That's why I whiffed on GOOG, and missed the bottom...

.  .  .  .  .


Well, what do we do now?...

I don't want to underestimate GOOG again. It's still trading at just 23.5x 2009 consensus earnings of 25%... a long-term growth rate of 28%...

If GOOG just traded inline with long-term growth, it would be a $697 stock... 17.2% higher than its current price.

The stock just spiked... not right. It spiked off the YHOO thing. You've got to wait for a pullback...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Never let anyone say that Cramer doesn't hold up his mistakes, and punish himself brutally. I whiffed on Google, Inc. (GOOG) and missed the bottom. Now you know why, and how you can avoid the same mistake in the future.

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


GOOG

594.90

na

Google, Inc. (GOOG)


       

 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at Amazon.com)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 


  We need your help! 
If you find our service valuable, your donation is critically helpful to support
our operating costs and is MUCH appreciated!
(click below to donate)

We are serving thousands of new visitors every day and our costs are growing as well.  Thank you for your support & generosity!


 

 

 

 
 
 
 
Second Segment
 
 
Final Segment 2 Title: 'Mad Mail'...

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): See comments below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Sudden:Death picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

na

na

na

Mad Mail

No specific stock picks.  General question...

Q:  
  You have made yourself quite clear recently that ethanol is not the answer to reducing our dependency on foreign oil... I'm curious to know why nobody seems to be talking about using DDGS (i.e., Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles) as a feedstock to replace some of the demand for corn. I've read a few articles that talk about billions of bushels of corn that can be displaced from the animal feedstock by using DDGS. What's your take?

JJC:     We can't reinvent the wheel here. It's not plausible. It's not going to happen... The farm ag lobby is behind corn - as stupid as that is - because sugar would have hurt our diet, if they had raised sugar... It's just all a big political mess. I had a guy in this morning on Squawk... who was a defender of his company, an ethanol company... I was embarrassed, frankly... I should have been much, much tougher with him, but it wasn't my show, and I was guesting... and I'm tired of being the bad boy, everywhere I go.

EDU

76.49

na

Mad Mail

New Oriental Education (EDU)

Q:  
  What do you think of EDU?

JJC:     I've looked at it... Very, very difficult to analyze... The Chinese are very difficult to get at...