After this segment, you
can see Jim's
SUDDEN:DEATH picks
here >>
JJC:
At my old hedge fund, when
anyone screwed up, I'd
make them wear a post-it
note on their head, for a
little public
humiliation... It really
changes people's behavior.
They do better the next
time, when they're
humiliated...
This week is Cramer
humiliation week...
Every day this week, I'm
featuring a big call that
I just blew... a stock
where I just whiffed...
I stayed too negative on
CMCSA... I stayed too
negative for too long, and
I missed a beautiful,
beautiful bottom...
I was so focused on the
telco companies... on
Verizon
(VZ*),
which I own for
my charitable trust... on
AT&T (T)...
and how they were
pants-ing cable... and I completely ignored the
signs of a bottom in
CMCSA... and I missed the
stock's run up from $17 to
$21.85...
. . . .
.
How did I whiff on
CMCSA?...
First and foremost, I
misjudged the competitive
landscape, the competitive
market... I thought it was
a zero-sum game between
cable and telco... I
totally ignored other
sources of subscriber
gains... I saw VZ* and T
gaining subscribers, and I
just assumed that they
were coming at the expense
of CMCSA and other cable
companies.
It turns out... I was dead
wrong...
The expectation was for
CMCSA to lose about
100,000 basic subscribers.
No. It only lost half
that. CMCSA also added,
more importantly, far more
high-speed data and voice
subscribers than anyone
suspected... especially
Cramer... 492,000 and
639,000, respectively...
That's gigantic.
It looks like CMCSA and
other cable companies
could be taking
subscribers from
everybody... from
satellite TV and cable...
It also seems to be
capitalizing on analog,
antenna-based TV
subscribers to digital.
That's set to happen
February 17th of 2009...
Do you know that there are
still 8 million people who
use bunny ears?... That's
right... they don't have
cable or satellite and
they use antennas?... I
don't know, once the
country goes all digital,
they're going to have to
choose between cable or
satellite. There's still a
lot of growth left for
cable.
. . . .
.
My second mistake was to
think of FiOS' gains as
cable's pain... We know
VZ*'s FiOS (i.e., their
high-speed fiber optic TV,
voice, internet and data
delivery service) is doing
really well, but it still
isn't everywhere. FiOS'
internet is only available
in 22.9% of VZ*'s
markets... FiOS' TV is
only available in 18.7% of
its markets...
What was I thinking?...
So, in the many areas
where FiOS isn't around,
CMCSA is still a better,
faster alternative to the
telco companies'
traditional DSL service,
which they're killing...
CMCSA is killing that.
When CMCSA reported, we
learned that two-thirds of
its subscriber additions
were converted DSL
subscribers, taken from
the telco companies...
that's monster...
I thought telco was
crushing cable... It turns
out, they're just going at
each other, but there's a
lot of low-hanging fruit
for both...
. . . .
.
I also missed CMCSA's
ability to compete and
fend off telco companies
with aggressive
marketing... they really
upped their marketing...
and more services like
increased video-on-demand,
and more HDTV choices...
I missed CMCSA's ability
to listen... and this is
really important... I
really got this wrong... I
misjudged their ability to
listen to smart activist
investors...
This was perhaps the
biggest whiff of all...
Back in January, and
activist fund called
Chieftain capital, led by
Glen Greenburg, started an
all-out assault against
CMCSA CEO, Brian
Roberts... calling CMCSA
management
"Comcastrophe"... Now,
that's amazing, because
the commercial (they have)
is "Comcastic"... So, it
was kind of like, not
"Comcastic", but
"Comcastrophe"... so it
was really hurtful...
I thought the Roberts'
family - which controls a
third of the voting power
of all CMCSA stock - would
ignore... I thought Brian
Roberts would just give
them the old brush-off...
Instead, he listened...
CMCSA agreed to buy back
$7 billion worth of stock,
through 2009... More
importantly, it
implemented its first
dividend since 1999. Okay,
small yield, but that's
okay... 1.1% annual
yield... And it cut the
founder, Ralph Roberts'
salary to a dollar... It
got rid of the
multi-million dollar
benefit, payable when he
passes...
. . . .
.
The final thing I missed
at CMCSA was its
ability... and this was...
of all the things I
whiffed at, this was
probably the worst
whiffing... Its ability to
fix its myriad customer
service problems...
There was a great article
in the Washington Post a
while back, describing how
bad CMCSA customer service
was... You know, there's
even a website called,
ComcastMustDie.com...
I regard that as somewhat
extreme... It is a blog
filled with posts from
angry customers... I think
Comcast goes to the
blog... I think they fix
things...
I thought CMCSA would
continue to offer poor
customer service, but then
the unthinkable
happened... competition.
Verizon's FiOS, I think,
lifted CMCSA's game... I
think it may turn out to
be a good thing for CMCSA,
because it forced the
company to address the
customer service issue...
It added 15,000 customer
reps in the last year and
a half. It managed to
reduce repair calls for
online and television
services. They reduced
repair windows from a full
day to four-hour
windows... so you don't
have to wait around all
day, like you have nothing
to do...
On their latest conference
call, the company noted
that they have fewer
customers calling in with
problems and that churn -
you know, it's like guys
leaving it (i.e., customer
cancellations) - are
sequentially lower.
The bottom line...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
I completely and utterly
whiffed on
Comcast (CMCSA).
I thought it was a
pitiful, helpless giant,
powerless against telco...
even as the signs that the
situation was the exact
opposite where all there.
I'm not going to repeat
that mistake... that's why
I'm wearing this post-it.
I think CMCSA looks good
here... and worth
buying... Although that
doesn't make up for my
missing four miserable
points to the upside.
. . . .
.
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's
SUDDEN:DEATH picks
here >>
Jim's Comments BEFORE
the interview:
We've got a situation
which I have been saying
represents good value,
because management is so
in touch with what you
want as a shareholder...
It's a company that
returns a lot of profit,
that grows in a very even
fashion... and that, I
think, has had the
capability of being a
put-away, IRA/401k kind of
stock... and it's WMI...
And, right now, we have
David Steiner, and we said
we'd check back with him.
He's the CEO of WMI. We
recommended the stock not
that long ago... It's not
up huge. Candidly, it's
not up huge... It's up 6%
since we had him on on
February 8th... They
reported earnings... it
beat estimates by a
penny...
Let's talk to Mr. Steiner,
and see what the future
holds... Mr. Steiner,
welcome back to the
show...
. . . .
.
Jim's Comments AFTER
the interview:
David Steiner, CEO of WMI
has consistently
delivered. This is a stock
that goes up over time.
There are a lot of you who
don't want a lot of risk,
a lot of jumping around...
WMI is for you...
. . . .
.
■
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above
■
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock
STOCK
SYMBOL
Closing
price
that
day
Opening
price
next
day
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each)
Go to the SUDDEN:DEATH
SEGMENT from
tonight's showhere >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
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Symbol keys:
A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >>
Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself.
Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself.
Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about.
Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms":
Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back...
Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you.
Definition:'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock).
Definition:'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >>
Helpful Websites:
See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
