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Friday, 05/09/08
Posted 05/11/08, 8:23
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Friday, 05/09/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,745 |
- 120 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,445 |
-
5 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,388 |
- 9 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Slick Moves'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Continental Resources Inc.
(CLR)
See CLR's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
CLR
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's
SUDDEN:DEATH picks
here >>
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JJC: My week
of public humiliation and
shame is almost over.
We're down to one last
whiff, one last blown
call. If you remember I've
spent all week talking
about stocks I got wrong.
I was too negative on
Google and Comcast, I was
being to positive on
Sheering Plow all the way
down and yesterday I
wasn't trusting Ruth
Frankford, the Coach CEO,
when I should have been
telling you to buy his
stock hand over fist.
These were all classic
whiffs, I missed the tops
or bottoms because I
misjudged or just missed
some important pieces of
information that I should
have been able to process.
The last whiff of the week
is
Continental Resources Inc.
(CLR).
You haven't heard about
CLR from me. So it's
difficult for me to wear
the post it...The one good
thing about CLR, at least
from the point of view of
you watching me continuing
to whiff, is that this one
was a called third strike.
I kept the bat on my
shoulder, and I got called
out looking. I liked the
stock back on January 15,
when I was really starting
to look at the all the
local, the domestic oil
and gas companies that
were drilling, and strange
places like the Dakotas. I
liked what I saw, I just
didn't like the price.
Here was a company that
was drilling for oil and
gas in the northern
Rockies, the Midwest and
the Gulf Coast, but 75% of
its reserves were in the
Dakotas and Montana. Their
main play right now is the
Red River Play. This is a
river in North Dakota.
Continental's most
important play, however,
is the Blackened Shale in
Northwestern North Dakota
and Northeastern Montana.
This is no Barnett shale
in Texas, which is the
biggest natural gas mine
in the country, nor is the
Marcellus shale in
Pennsylvania, another
bountiful find. But it's
still got great potential.
Right now it's only 25% of
Continentals's reserves,
but many people think it
could be a whole lot
bigger. I wanted to tell
you about this stock
before I explain how I
blew the call, because I
never told you about it in
the first place. Here's
how I completely screwed
this one up, proving that
Cramer is indeed, a sad
clown. When I found this
stock it was $26.15, which
was at its 52 week high
when I found it. I was
being cute and kept the
bat on my shoulder. I was
waiting for a pull back
for my perfect pitch
before recommending it and
I kept waiting and waiting
and waiting and then of
course when I got my
perfect pitch and the
stock pulled to 22, what
did I do? It would have
been a steal, what did I
do? I still didn't
recommend it, I still kep
the bat on my shoulder as
they tossed it at me.
Instead of doing what my
discipline says which is
to buy at your price, I
ignored it thinking, hmm
it must be going down
because oil could go over,
I better you there is even
a better pitch on the way.
. . . .
.
So I didn't swing. And
then sure enough, it
jumped back up to $28 and
for about three weeks
still Cramer said nothing.
There I was biding my
time, waiting for the
perfect pitch, but there
is no perfect pitch in
this game. CLR wasn't
biding its time. It wasn't
waiting around for me to
recommend it before taking
off. The stock then
exploded,going from $25.91
on March 24, to $53.22,
where it is now. But no,
no, I had to wait for the
perfect pitch. That's a
double that I missed. CLR
just reported a fantastic
quarter. Beating by 4
cents with a monster
production rate output of
what they were going to
produce in the future,
even though the production
this quarter wasn't what I
wanted, because of a gas
plant outage. CLR expected
yearend 2008 production to
be up 48% from last year.
Like I said before, there
are oil and gas stocks
with production growth
that are also growing the
preserves.
. . . .
.
Those are the ones you
want. CLR is one of them.
I could have given it to
you in the 20s. Now it's
in the 50s because I was
too cute, as many of our
female callers acknowledge
nightly. That was my
biggest mistake. I knew
CLR was big, but I thought
it was late. I thought I
was late. I kept thinking
better pitch, better
pitch. I never even
thought about how much
higher it could go and
this gets to a fundamental
lesson. When you believe
something, when you
believe in a theory, when
you think you're right on
a macro, big theory, pull
the trigger. Just say
okay, we're not going to
be pennywise, we're not
going to get the perfect
pitch. Let's buy some and
if it comes down, we buy
more. If not, the worst
that happens is that we'll
make a little money on
what we put on.
That, by the way, is
investing rule #3 in
Jim Cramer's Real Money. If
I had followed my own
rule, I would have at
least mentioned this one
to you, and you could've
caught a double, even in a
small position, instead of
missing everything because
I was too cautious and
wouldn't take the bat off
my shoulder. Now CLR is
spending more money on
drilling, they've bought
some land in my favorite
area, the Marcellus Shale,
which remember the
democrats think is a very
bad veal dish, but it's a
Cramer fave. It just came
out with great numbers.
. . . .
.
I hate to recommend a
stock at $53.22 that I
missed at $25, but the
truth is that as long as
oil and gas stays strong,
this one is going to keep
going higher. I missed it
once, but I've learned my
lesson, I'm a believer.
That means that I would
buy a teeny weeny position
now and wait for a pull
back.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
I
kept the bat on my
shoulder, got called out
on strikes and
Continental Resources Inc.
(CLR)
because I spent too much
time worrying about
getting a perfect pitch,
and not enough time just
trying to be able to put a
little bit of...To not
repeat my mistake, if you
believe in a stock and
it's expensive, bunt, just
put in a small position,
you might get lucky. Or
you might get unlucky, but
you cuold've caught a
double, and that was
sweet.
. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|

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CLR |
53.18 |
na |
Continental Resources Inc.
(CLR)
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at
Amazon.com) |
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Final Segment 2
Title: |
'Wall of Shame'
CEO, Martin Sullivan |
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
American International Group
(AIG)
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's
SUDDEN:DEATH picks
here >>
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JJC: Very
important
Wall of Shame
update... we've got some
changes, some re-arranging
we have to do. We all know
that Kerry Killinger has
been busy running
Washington Mutual (WM)
into the ground and that's
pretty much of a daily
endeavor, and he's been
very successful at that.
However, it's time because
we've got a guy now who is
so bad, there is just no
way he doesn't deserve to
be at the top. That is the
CEO of
American International Group
(AIG),
appointed by my friend
Elliot Spitzer, to replace
a guy named Greenburg, who
was actually a pretty good
manager, Hank Greenburg.
This is a quarter I can't
believe. This is a company
that has the guts to
accuse me of not doing
homework when I put it in
the cell block in the $60s
last year. They called me
and said Jim, you haven't
done your homework. You
know what I said to the
guy who told me I didn't
do my homework? I said
listen, I'll give you one
of the biggest breaks
ever: quit. Quit the firm.
I'm telling you to get the
heck out of that dodge.
Well, this quarter was so
awful that they're raising
money, they have to raise
money, they increased the
dividend, it was so stupid
because I figured they
were going to issue stock
and buy back stock at the
same time. This company is
moronic and I don't trust
a word they're going to
say.
This guy is no longer
Martin Sullivan, he's Ed
Sullivan and he's running
a really big shoe?. I
cannot believe how bad
this guy is or how bad
this quarter was. AIG is a
disgrace and if you go and
buy stock in that deal,
you're just another
sucker, you're worse than
the people who bought Citi
all the way down. I'm not
making enough of a point
about htis guy, Sullivan.
I have to have a Wall of
Shame Annex to put things
in perspective. I've been
just challenged by how bad
Sullivan is and how bad
AIG is, down 10% today,
killed the DOW, who told
me all the stuff that they
said at their December
teach-in with all those
Wharton? professors that
all this stuff was just
protective protective,
none of it's
protected...who even knows
what they own.
There has to be like in
the real hall of fame in
Cooperstown where they
have these special annexes
for really unbelieveable
things...I've got a
special annex in my
Wall of Shame...a
"Wall of extra shame"
because I have to make a
point here. Here's the
deal. This guy, if there
is a board of directors,
if there is anything like
a referee in this
business, an umpire. This
man has to be fired. You
probably don't hear a lot
of other people on tv ever
say stuff like this, no.
You've probably never
heard anyone say it. Why?
Because maybe they're
afraid he goes to the same
club as they do, maybe
he's got friends that
could lean on me, maybe
there's the possibility
that this is one of those
situations where there was
pressure. I work at a
great network, I work at a
great company. The network
and the company allow me
to tell it as it is. This
stock would go up 10%
maybe 20% if this man were
fired over the weekend.
That's why he's got his
own annex on the hall and
wall of shame. AIG, if you
have any shame, you should
fire this man.
. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
|
| |
|
|
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|

|
AIG |
40.28 |
na |
American International Group
(AIG)
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