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Tuesday, 05/27/08
Posted 05/27/08, 8:43
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Tuesday, 05/27/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,548 |
+ 68 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,481 |
+ 36 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,385 |
+
9 |
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Final Segment
2
Title: |
'The Warsaw Pack' |
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Mechel Open Joint Stock
Company (MTL)
See MTL's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
MTL
here.
See Jim's original
complete comments for
MTL from Monday,
4/7/08,
here

Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods
(WBD)
See WBD's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
WBD
here.
See Jim's original
complete comments for
WBD from Tuesday,
4/8/08,
here

CTC Media, Inc (CTCM)
See CTCM's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
CTCM
here.
See Jim's original
complete comments for
CTCM from Wednesday,
4/9/08,
here

Central European
Distribution Corp. (CEDC)
See CEDC's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
CEDC
here.
See Jim's original
complete comments for
CEDC from Thursday,
4/10/08,
here

Central European Media
Enterprises (CETV)
See CETV's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
CETV
here.
See Jim's original
complete comments for
CETV from Friday,
4/11/08,
here

See Final Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here... |
JJC:
What do you do with a
domestic economy -
excluding my new tech
companies - that are, for
the most part, exporting
to the rest of the
world... that's in the
dust...
We've got declining
housing prices... maybe a
bottom, out 12-18
months...
We've got consumer
confidence so low, the
government should probably
start mailing out bottles
of Prozac, instead of the
$600 rebate checks to get
people shopping again...
Obviously, gasoline... I
paid $4.22 this weekend...
How do you still make
money in this
environment?...
I recommended - and have
been recommending, and
have just been saying...
put as much as 20% of your
funds in foreign
companies... I've been
saying that consistently
since the show started,
and I'm not backing
down... And, as recently
as just a few months ago,
we've been saying there's
a lot of money coming at
us from Russia... or, to
be more accurate, the
countries of the old
Warsaw Pact... of course,
with love...
In a market where
commodity prices are
rising, there are whole
areas of the world that
are far wealthier in
minerals and oil and gas
than we are.... I think
you want to invest in
those places, and Russia,
with its enormous oil and
gas wealth, is chiefly one
of them.
You want some proof that
investing in the former
Soviet Union, and its
ex-satellites, works?...
All right, go back... to
the week of April 7th... I
told you that these
reformed communists had
become some of the best
bourgeois capitalists
rotors of them all...
second only to the
communist Chinese...
See all of Jim's comments
for each of these five
stocks, from the week of
April 7th, 2008...
MTL complete comments from
that night's show
here
WBD complete comments from
that night's show
here

CTCM complete comments
from that night's show
here

CEDC complete comments
from that night's show
here

CETV complete comments
from that night's show
here

I recommended a basket of
five Russian and Eastern
European stocks and,
collectively, they're up
13.7%, while the S&P 500
did not even return a full
percentage point, over the
same period (since the
week of April 7th,
2008)...
I regard that as "exhibit
A" of why you should be in
foreign markets for 20% of
your assets...
Now it's time to update
our "Warsaw Pact
Portfolio"... both
because we believe in
doing homework...
Remember, it's "buy and
homework" in Cramerica...
not just "buy and hold."
That doesn't work if you
own that
Pfizer (PFE)...
okay...
Even though our basket is
up 13.7% in less than two
months, while the S&P has
done virtually nothing, I
made a mistake... I made
an error when I put this
portfolio together... and
it needs to be corrected.
I'm embarrassed about...
CTC Media, Inc (CTCM),
a Russian TV company...
The first four stocks (Mechel (MTL),
Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods
(WBD),
Central European
Distribution Corp. (CEDC)
and
Central European Media
Enterprises (CETV))
were really fabulous. I'm
actually quite proud of
these... MTL, up 19.7%;
WBD, up 14.8%; CEDC, up
19.2%; CETV, up 20.1%; and
then this stinker...
CTCM... This was a
comparative disaster, down
5.2%... Worse, on May 6th,
it was down as much as
15%! I mean, I was ready
to go to Siberia
immediately...
I want to keep owning the
other four stocks. The
thesis behind each one of
them is still in tact but,
you know what?... I feel
like we're back, not to
even, but we're down only
5%. I want to cut and run
from CTCM... and that's
one of the reasons why I
wanted to revise the
portfolio.
I don't like to just throw
them out there and forget
about them. That's bush
league...
I never should have put
both CETV and CTCM in the
same basket... purely, at
least, as an issue of
diversification...
All of CETV's markets seem
to be doing well, and it's
the one I want to stick
with, but what about
CTCM?... How could it fail
in this environment? The
idea here was that
commodity wealth would
move through Russia's
economy. We were right on
that with the other
stocks... The mineral
wealth seems to have
trickled down to food and
beverages, even though we
know that Putin took as
much as he could... And
WBD and CEDC did well...
And it seems to have
trickled down to
infrastructure, through
the government, thus the
strength of MTL, the steel
company.
But it doesn't seem to
have trickled down to
CTCM... no... Partially, I
think that's because
entertainment is a luxury,
not a necessity, as food,
beverages and
infrastructure are... So
it takes longer for money
to trickle down from
Russia's oil and gas
wealth...
Also, if you compare CTCM
in Russia to CETV in
Eastern Europe, you can
see how CTCM is in a worse
position. Remember, we're
weighing which one to
keep...
CETV has audience share in
its markets, ranging from
18-40%... That's a great
proxy for advertising
growth in its markets...
CTCM just has 12-13%
audience share in Russia,
so it's not necessarily
going to do well, just
because the Russian ad
market is growing... it's
too small.
Plus I think CTCM didn't
work, because it overpaid
on a big acquisition, a la
Time Warner Inc. (TWX)
with AOL... or
Wall of Shamer,
Gary Pruitt from
McClatchy (MNI),
overpaying for anything...
Especially in the media
world, overpaying is just
deadly...
The Bottom Line!:
The Warsaw Pact portfolio
marches on... But we've
had our show trial and
sent the Bukharin of the
group (i.e., CTC Media, Inc
(CTCM))
- not for execution, but
to Siberia - where it
belongs! Consider
Mechel Open Joint Stock
Company (MTL),
Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods
(WBD),
Central European
Distribution Corp. (CEDC)
and
Central European Media
Enterprises (CETV)
buys.
. . . .
.
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|

|
MTL |
51.48 |
52.10 |
Mechel Open Joint Stock
Company (MTL)
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WBD |
127.55 |
125.86 |
Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods
(WBD)
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CTCM |
27.50 |
27.46 |
CTC Media, Inc (CTCM)
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CEDC |
72.92 |
72.57 |
Central European
Distribution Corp. (CEDC)
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CETV |
103.70 |
104.67 |
Central European Media
Enterprises (CETV)
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