After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here...
JJC:
What do you do with a
domestic economy -
excluding my new tech
companies - that are, for
the most part, exporting
to the rest of the
world... that's in the
dust...
We've got declining
housing prices... maybe a
bottom, out 12-18
months...
We've got consumer
confidence so low, the
government should probably
start mailing out bottles
of Prozac, instead of the
$600 rebate checks to get
people shopping again...
Obviously, gasoline... I
paid $4.22 this weekend...
How do you still make
money in this
environment?...
I recommended - and have
been recommending, and
have just been saying...
put as much as 20% of your
funds in foreign
companies... I've been
saying that consistently
since the show started,
and I'm not backing
down... And, as recently
as just a few months ago,
we've been saying there's
a lot of money coming at
us from Russia... or, to
be more accurate, the
countries of the old
Warsaw Pact... of course,
with love...
In a market where
commodity prices are
rising, there are whole
areas of the world that
are far wealthier in
minerals and oil and gas
than we are.... I think
you want to invest in
those places, and Russia,
with its enormous oil and
gas wealth, is chiefly one
of them.
You want some proof that
investing in the former
Soviet Union, and its
ex-satellites, works?...
All right, go back... to
the week of April 7th... I
told you that these
reformed communists had
become some of the best
bourgeois capitalists
rotors of them all...
second only to the
communist Chinese...
. . . .
.
See all of Jim's comments
for each of these five
stocks, from the week of
April 7th, 2008...
CTCM complete comments
from that night's show
here
CEDC complete comments
from that night's show
here
CETV complete comments
from that night's show
here
. . . .
.
I recommended a basket of
five Russian and Eastern
European stocks and,
collectively, they're up
13.7%, while the S&P 500
did not even return a full
percentage point, over the
same period (since the
week of April 7th,
2008)...
I regard that as "exhibit
A" of why you should be in
foreign markets for 20% of
your assets...
. . . .
.
Now it's time to update
our "Warsaw Pact
Portfolio"... both
because we believe in
doing homework...
Remember, it's "buy and
homework" in Cramerica...
not just "buy and hold."
That doesn't work if you
own that
Pfizer (PFE)...
okay...
Even though our basket is
up 13.7% in less than two
months, while the S&P has
done virtually nothing, I
made a mistake... I made
an error when I put this
portfolio together... and
it needs to be corrected.
I'm embarrassed about...
CTC Media, Inc (CTCM),
a Russian TV company...
The first four stocks (Mechel (MTL),
Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods
(WBD),
Central European
Distribution Corp. (CEDC)
and
Central European Media
Enterprises (CETV))
were really fabulous. I'm
actually quite proud of
these... MTL, up 19.7%;
WBD, up 14.8%; CEDC, up
19.2%; CETV, up 20.1%; and
then this stinker...
CTCM... This was a
comparative disaster, down
5.2%... Worse, on May 6th,
it was down as much as
15%! I mean, I was ready
to go to Siberia
immediately...
. . . .
.
I want to keep owning the
other four stocks. The
thesis behind each one of
them is still in tact but,
you know what?... I feel
like we're back, not to
even, but we're down only
5%. I want to cut and run
from CTCM... and that's
one of the reasons why I
wanted to revise the
portfolio.
I don't like to just throw
them out there and forget
about them. That's bush
league...
I never should have put
both CETV and CTCM in the
same basket... purely, at
least, as an issue of
diversification...
All of CETV's markets seem
to be doing well, and it's
the one I want to stick
with, but what about
CTCM?... How could it fail
in this environment? The
idea here was that
commodity wealth would
move through Russia's
economy. We were right on
that with the other
stocks... The mineral
wealth seems to have
trickled down to food and
beverages, even though we
know that Putin took as
much as he could... And
WBD and CEDC did well...
And it seems to have
trickled down to
infrastructure, through
the government, thus the
strength of MTL, the steel
company.
But it doesn't seem to
have trickled down to
CTCM... no... Partially, I
think that's because
entertainment is a luxury,
not a necessity, as food,
beverages and
infrastructure are... So
it takes longer for money
to trickle down from
Russia's oil and gas
wealth...
Also, if you compare CTCM
in Russia to CETV in
Eastern Europe, you can
see how CTCM is in a worse
position. Remember, we're
weighing which one to
keep...
CETV has audience share in
its markets, ranging from
18-40%... That's a great
proxy for advertising
growth in its markets...
CTCM just has 12-13%
audience share in Russia,
so it's not necessarily
going to do well, just
because the Russian ad
market is growing... it's
too small.
Plus I think CTCM didn't
work, because it overpaid
on a big acquisition, a la
Time Warner Inc. (TWX)
with AOL... or
Wall of Shamer,
Gary Pruitt from
McClatchy (MNI),
overpaying for anything...
Especially in the media
world, overpaying is just
deadly...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
The Warsaw Pact portfolio
marches on... But we've
had our show trial and
sent the Bukharin of the
group (i.e., CTC Media, Inc
(CTCM))
- not for execution, but
to Siberia - where it
belongs! Consider
Mechel Open Joint Stock
Company (MTL),
Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods
(WBD),
Central European
Distribution Corp. (CEDC)
and
Central European Media
Enterprises (CETV)
buys.
. . . .
.
■
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Second Segment
Final Segment
2 Title:
'Mad Mail'...
. . . .
.
Featured
Stock(s):
See comments below...
After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here...
. . . .
.
■
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above
■
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock
STOCK
SYMBOL
Closing
price
that
day
Opening
price
next
day
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each)
Q:
In the
speculative
plays show, you
mentioned
something called
"multiple
contraction."
All day last
Thursday, I was
down in the
dumps, sipping
my cheap scotch,
when I saw the
beating that
GME's stock took
after reporting
an astronomical
quarter. But
then I came home
and was properly
educated by the
professor. I
maintained
discipline and
bought while it
was low, knowing
that the company
was not broken,
just the stock
(temporarily).
You sir, are
keeping me in
the game and,
for that, I
salute you and
your staff... JJC:
Okay... listen.
I applaud you on
understanding
that we're going
to pay less and
less for a
certain group of
earnings, but I
know - because
you're from
Cramerica - that
you went through
the conference
call. And, if
you did go
through the
conference call,
you know that
the company was
not as upbeat
about the future
as people
wanted. And
that, I think,
is more of a
reason why it
didn't go up. I
think it's fine.
I wish they had
been more
bullish. They're
lack of
bullishness made
me less bullish.
And you know I
used to like
that stock, and
told people to
own it right
through until we
got to Christmas
last year, and
then we rang the
register.
Q:
You recommended
we sell our
shares of AAPL
when the 3G
iPhone
comes out. Is
that when it is
announced on
June 9th, or
when it actually
hits the market?
I realize this
is one of those
"buy on the
rumor and sell
on the news"
plays, but how
is that actually
done? Do we sell
the day of, day
after, or
before? JJC:
You're going to
do all combo...
If you've got
100 shares,
you're going to
sell 25 the day
before the
announcement...
You're going to
sell 25 the day
of the
announcement...
okay... right in
the morning. And
then you're
going to sell 25
in the afternoon
of the
announcement...
and then you're
going to hold
the other 25, to
see if people
are still
excited. By that
point, you will
have been out of
three-quarters...
The last 25
can't take away
your profit.
That's how we're
going to play
it. Get used to
it. I'm going to
repeatedly
mention the
four-trench way
to get out of
AAPL, as we get
into the
introduction (of
the upcoming new
3G
iPhone
model)...
[
end of final segment ]
Go to the SUDDEN:DEATH
SEGMENT from
tonight's showhere >>
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Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >>
Symbol keys:
A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >>
Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself.
Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself.
Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about.
Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms":
Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back...
Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you.
Definition:'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock).
Definition:'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >>
Helpful Websites:
See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
