Friday, 06/20/08
Posted 06/21/08,  09:51 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Friday, 06/20/08

  Dow Jones: 11,842  - 220
  NASDAQ:   2,406   - 55
  S&P 500:   1,317   - 24
 
 
 
 
 
Final Segment 1
 
 
Final Segment 1 Title: 'Cramer's Game Plan
  For Next Week'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS)
Darden Restaurants
(DRI)
Nike Inc. (NKE)
Research In Motion (RIMM)
Accenture Ltd. (ACN)
ConAgra (CAG)
J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)
Discover Financial Services (DFS)
Lennar Corp. (LEN)
Micron Technology Inc. (MU)
Rite Aid Corp. (RAD)


See Opening Segment 2, below...

 

JJC:    Before we get started on my Game Plan, I want to correct a misimpression... Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN*), is really right now a play in the Fayetteville shale... I get my shales all confused, but Fayetteville seems to have been obscured by Haynesville and by Marcellus... But SWN* is pretty hot, and that's why I've been buying it for my charitable trust. Don't want to get my shales confused though...

.  .  .  .  .

Okay, for next week, we're reverting to our old format for the Game Plan...  

Now the Game Plan is the only time during the week that I recommend trades on Mad Money...  That somehow is a fact that remains true despite constant criticism from the press... 

So, next week is the official start of the Summer season on Wall Street...  I suspect it to be quiet, unless oil skyrockets or plummets...  So we're going back to an individual stock Game Plan... 

.  .  .  .  .

Monday...
Usually the market's down, after expiration, we don't care. What we're looking for, is individual stocks... And on Monday, Walgreen Co. (WAG), reports before the opening. Here's the trade, it's not WAG. That's done.  You had to do that on Friday, the stock's going to trade on how it opens on Monday, and you'll already have the news out.  If WAG is bad though, it should pull down the whole cohort.  We think that means you get a chance to buy CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) at a discount.  It seems like CVS is doing a lot of right things, wholesale pharmaceuticals, the stores look great, and remember, a drug store chain is a pretty good bet in the slowdown we're having... Nah, but that's not the main reason I like this one.  If WAG gives us a good entry point for CVS, I think you do it because I think Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is a rapidly diminishing entity.  I think RAD is CVS' principle competitor, is running out of money and time.  What we could end up with here is a potential duopoly between WAG and CVS, those guys are all three going at it. And that's a real possibility. The only thing we like more than a duopoly on the show is a monopoly. Given RAD reports next Thursday, you won't have long to wait to see if this trade materializes. Remember, we think, not WAG...  If WAG is bad, buy CVS.  If WAG is good, there's nothing we can do.

.  .  .  .  .

Let's move to Tuesday...
Here Darden Restaurants (DRI), reports after the close. You know we're giant fans of the Olive Garden and Red Lobster Seafood lover in us...  But everyone keeps thinking that this will be the quarter that DRI blows up because of high food costs.  I disagree.  If the stock, DRI is down on Monday in anticipation of a bad quarter, I think you want to pick some up on Tuesday...  As we, the royal we, think this company will once again deliver.  DRI reminds me of Panera Bread Co. (
PNRA), in that it offers enough branded restaurants that people will look forward to going to that it can still do well in this environment.  And Panera last night, you gave me two knives and one fork, and my daughter was all furious at me, okay, so make my life easy, please?

.  .  .  .  .

Then Wednesday...
Two stocks reporting after the close that I want to focus on... Nike Inc. (NKE) and Research In Motion (RIMM). First, Nike Inc. (NKE). I don't know if Nike will report a good number or not. And again, sometimes the game plan is to know the unknowable and sometimes it is to say I don't know. Now the best opportunities often come after a report, I think NKE will be good. I don't know. I do know this, though.  The next quarter will include the Olympics, which is a worldwide showcase for NKE's products, as well as a fabulous NBC program. I think NKE is a great company that seems to be growing consistently. So, I want you to buy it on weakness, if we get any after the quarter. Now, if the quarter is good, and the stock goes up, we don't get any weakness, and then you pass. Nobody ever lost money taking a pass. All right now, how about Research In Motion (RIMM)... Blackberry...   I've already said I like this one. I hope you would have bought it already by now. It's the only horseman, of the four horsemen, that I have stuck with consistently in 2008. I raved about it on Tuesday, when I talked about the Ax, the universally-acknowledged best analyst in the stock, Rob Sanderson, who also happens to be a really nice guy.  He took his estimates up well above the others.  He became what's known as street high.  My prediction is that RIMM beats that Street's high number, and they report a great one...  and all the other analysts follow Sanderson and boost their estimates and either the stocks marks time, as it did the last quarter, and then went higher, or it goes higher immediately...  Those seem to be the two options.  Given the run that RIMM has already had, you should be aware that it could even sell off a little on a great quarter...  But again, I want to buy it.  That's what Goldman Sachs (GS*) did.  It opened at $185 then sold down at $179, you got a great chance at them went back to $185.  If that happens, if RIMM goes down after the great quarter, that's a great buying opportunity. I want you to keep some money on the table for that, just in case we get a dip.

.  .  .  .  .


Thursday, unfortunately is a whole different story...
It's going to be a bad day, I think.  I'm worried about Thursday.  First ConAgra (CAG) reports...  You know I put that in the Sell Block because of raw costs.  Then we saw J. M. Smuckers (SJM), which is a really good company...  We saw it just get crushed on bad peanut butter earnings.  I can't believe that ConAgra's Peter Pan peanut butter will be any better.  Don't forget, ConAgra is a huge popcorn company.  It has so many foods that are jacked up by commodities pricing, that I just don't trust it.  So again, I'm reiterating, stay away.  Thursday, Discover Financial Services (DFS)... Discover card.  The way I figure it... Why own it when you could own
Mastercard (MA)?... 

Oh, and then this day just continues...  Lennar Corp. (LEN) reports, the big homebuilder. Lennar will probably put some quarter that is lipstick on the proverbial pig, if you own it... I think you should get ready to sell it into the inevitable hype.   Micron Technology Inc. (MU), a semiconductor company, reports Thursday...  It probably will award us with another bad quarter from "old tech"...   And then, to top things off, oh my, Rite Aid (RAD) reports, which I've already told you, I think, is circling the drain...  The only saving grace on Thursday, if the markets down... Maybe pick up some Accenture Ltd. (ACN). I think that could be terrific in a day otherwise shrouded in gloom.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      If Walgreen Co. (WAG) disappoints on Monday, I think you buy CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS).  I recommend you buy Darden Restaurants (DRI) if it dips on Monday, ahead of Tuesday earnings.   Nike Inc. (NKE) is buy after it reports, only if it goes down...   And Research In Motion (RIMM), which you should already be in...  If it comes off, I want you to buy some more.   And then, stay home, lock your doors on Thursday, because I expect things to be pretty darn bad, with the exception of Accenture Ltd. (ACN).

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


CVS

41.36

41.46

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS)


DRI

31.64

31.90

Darden Restaurants (DRI)


NKE

66.73

67.03

Nike Inc. (NKE)


RIMM

144.56

146.50

Research In Motion (RIMM)


ACN

39.12

39.46

Accenture Ltd. (ACN)


CAG

22.18

22.23

ConAgra (CAG)


SJM

44.70

44.82

J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)


DFS

14.41

14.50

Discover Financial Services (DFS)


LEN

15.23

15.42

Lennar Corp. (LEN)


MU

7.23

7.25

Micron Technology Inc. (MU)


RAD

1.96

1.95

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD)

 

 

 



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