JJC:
Before we get started on
my Game Plan, I want to
correct a misimpression...
Southwestern Energy Co.
(SWN*),
is really right now a play
in the Fayetteville
shale... I get my shales
all confused, but
Fayetteville seems to have
been obscured by
Haynesville and by
Marcellus... But SWN* is
pretty hot, and that's why
I've been buying it for
my charitable trust. Don't want to
get my shales confused
though...
. . . .
.
Okay, for next week, we're
reverting to our old
format for the Game
Plan...
Now the Game Plan is the
only time during the week
that I recommend trades on
Mad Money... That
somehow is a fact that
remains true despite
constant criticism from
the press...
So, next week is the
official start of the
Summer season on Wall
Street... I suspect
it to be quiet, unless oil
skyrockets or plummets...
So we're going back to an
individual stock Game
Plan...
. . . .
.
Monday...
Usually the market's down,
after expiration, we don't
care. What we're looking
for, is individual
stocks... And on Monday,
Walgreen Co. (WAG),
reports before the
opening. Here's the trade,
it's not WAG. That's done.
You had to do that on
Friday, the stock's going
to trade on how it opens
on Monday, and you'll
already have the news out.
If WAG is bad though, it
should pull down the whole
cohort. We think
that means you get a
chance to buy
CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS)
at a discount. It
seems like CVS is doing a
lot of right things,
wholesale pharmaceuticals,
the stores look great, and
remember, a drug store
chain is a pretty good bet
in the slowdown we're
having... Nah, but that's
not the main reason I like
this one. If WAG
gives us a good entry
point for CVS, I think you
do it because I think
Rite Aid Corp. (RAD)
is a rapidly diminishing
entity. I think RAD
is CVS' principle
competitor, is running out
of money and time.
What we could end up with
here is a potential
duopoly between WAG and
CVS, those guys are all
three going at it. And
that's a real possibility.
The only thing we like
more than a duopoly on
the show is a monopoly.
Given RAD reports next
Thursday, you won't have
long to wait to see if
this trade materializes.
Remember, we think, not
WAG... If WAG is
bad, buy CVS. If WAG
is good, there's nothing
we can do.
. . . .
.
Let's move to
Tuesday...
Here Darden Restaurants (DRI),
reports after the close.
You know we're giant fans
of the Olive Garden and
Red Lobster Seafood lover
in us... But
everyone keeps thinking
that this will be the
quarter that DRI blows up
because of high food
costs. I disagree.
If the stock, DRI is down
on Monday in anticipation
of a bad quarter, I think
you want to pick some up
on Tuesday... As we,
the royal we, think this
company will once again
deliver. DRI
reminds me of
Panera Bread Co.
(PNRA),
in that it offers enough
branded restaurants that
people will look forward
to going to that it can
still do well in this
environment. And
Panera last night, you
gave me two knives and one
fork, and my daughter was
all furious at me, okay,
so make my life easy,
please?
. . . .
.
Then Wednesday...
Two stocks reporting after
the close that I want to
focus on...
Nike Inc. (NKE)
and
Research
In Motion (RIMM).
First,
Nike Inc. (NKE).
I don't know if Nike will
report a good number or
not. And again, sometimes
the game plan is to know
the unknowable and
sometimes it is to say I
don't know. Now the best
opportunities often come
after a report, I think
NKE will be good. I don't
know. I do know this,
though. The next
quarter will include the
Olympics, which is a
worldwide showcase for
NKE's products, as well as
a fabulous NBC program. I
think NKE is a great
company that seems to be
growing consistently. So,
I want you to buy it on
weakness, if we get any
after the quarter. Now, if
the quarter is good, and
the stock goes up, we
don't get any weakness,
and then you pass. Nobody
ever lost money taking a
pass. All right now, how
about
Research
In Motion (RIMM)...
Blackberry...
I've already said I like
this one. I hope you would
have bought it already by
now. It's the only
horseman, of the four
horsemen, that I have
stuck with consistently in
2008. I raved about it on
Tuesday, when I talked
about the Ax, the
universally-acknowledged
best analyst in the stock,
Rob Sanderson, who also
happens to be a really
nice guy. He took
his estimates up well
above the others. He
became what's known as
street high. My
prediction is that RIMM
beats that Street's high
number, and they report a
great one... and all
the other analysts follow
Sanderson and boost their
estimates and either the
stocks marks time, as it
did the last quarter, and
then went higher, or it
goes higher immediately...
Those seem to be the two
options. Given the
run that RIMM has already
had, you should be aware
that it could even sell
off a little on a great
quarter... But
again, I want to buy it.
That's what
Goldman Sachs (GS*)
did. It opened at
$185 then sold down at
$179, you got a great
chance at them went back
to $185. If that
happens, if RIMM goes down
after the great quarter,
that's a great buying
opportunity. I want you to
keep some money on the
table for that, just in
case we get a dip.
. . . .
.
Thursday, unfortunately
is a whole different
story...
It's going to be a bad
day, I think. I'm
worried about Thursday.
First
ConAgra (CAG)
reports... You know
I put that in the Sell
Block because of raw
costs. Then we saw
J. M. Smuckers (SJM),
which is a really good
company... We saw it
just get crushed on bad
peanut butter earnings.
I can't believe that
ConAgra's Peter Pan peanut
butter will be any better.
Don't forget, ConAgra is a
huge popcorn company.
It has so many foods that
are jacked up by
commodities pricing, that
I just don't trust it.
So again, I'm reiterating,
stay away. Thursday,
Discover Financial Services
(DFS)...
Discover card. The
way I figure it... Why own
it when you could own
Mastercard
(MA)?...
Oh, and then this day just
continues...
Lennar Corp. (LEN)
reports, the big
homebuilder. Lennar will
probably put some quarter
that is lipstick on the
proverbial pig, if you own
it... I think you should
get ready to sell it into
the inevitable hype.
Micron Technology Inc. (MU),
a semiconductor company,
reports Thursday...
It probably will award us
with another bad quarter
from "old tech"...
And then, to top things
off, oh my,
Rite Aid (RAD)
reports, which I've
already told you, I think,
is circling the drain...
The only saving grace on
Thursday, if the markets
down... Maybe pick up some
Accenture Ltd. (ACN).
I think that could be
terrific in a day
otherwise shrouded in
gloom.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
If
Walgreen Co. (WAG)
disappoints on Monday, I
think you buy
CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS).
I recommend you buy
Darden Restaurants (DRI)
if it dips on Monday,
ahead of Tuesday earnings.
Nike Inc. (NKE)
is buy after it reports,
only if it goes down...
And
Research
In Motion (RIMM),
which you should already
be in... If it comes
off, I want you to buy
some more. And
then, stay home, lock your
doors on Thursday, because
I expect things to be
pretty darn bad, with the
exception of
Accenture Ltd. (ACN).