Friday, 07/11/08
Posted 07/12/08,  07:47 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Friday, 07/11/08

  Dow Jones: 11,100  - 128
  NASDAQ:   2,239   - 18
  S&P 500:   1,239    -13
 
 
 
 
 
Final Segment 1
 
 
Final Segment 1 Title: 'Cramer's Game Plan
  For Next Week'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

Genentech Inc. (DNA)
Eaton Corp. (ETN)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Intel (INTC)
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
VF Corp. (VFC)
Yum! Brands (YUM)
Coca-Cola (KO)
JPMorgan (JPM)
United Technologies (UTX)
IBM (IBM)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Merrill Lynch (MER)

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Sudden:Death picks here...
 

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JJC:   The speed with which both Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) pretty much evaporated, well even for this grizzled 63-year-old, was just plain frightening... The fact that my old friend, buddy, pal, Bill Poole said they were insolvent yesterday, the plant in the New York Times that said that nationalization could be on the horizon, almost destroyed the whole market... But the president's change of view this very day, a true conversion, as he had been the historic sworn enemy of these companies, helped us do better later in the day...

The president has made it clear first time... Fannie and Freddie don't need more capitol... He's still the boss... Everyone, including all the examiners will now listen to him... Now let me offer a plan of my own that could cause a massive rally in equities... If this administration wanted to end this controversy and ignite the housing market, it could make more implicit the guarantee of all debt, and it is trillions of debt of Fannie and Freddie, simply by taking 20% of these companies in warrants, that's like if you're old enough like I am, Chrysler, that's what we did with Chrysler, very successful bail out... Mortgages would then become the new treasuries, and the scrambler would be on to buy them and sell treasuries for a huge wind that could stop the house price depreciation cold, not that they'll listen... But if they adopt my plan, here's what I think would happen... I think the mortgage market, yes, how you price your mortgage would immediately rally 1-2 full points as mortgages suddenly morph into treasuries and put any flows right back into its system... The bank stocks would go from bear to bull and all of these credit defaults you hear about all day, they'd implode, putting more pressure up, upside on banks... Lehman Brothers (LEH), rallies 15 in this plan, Wachovia Corp. (WB), Bank of America (BAC) thrive... Get this, change of pace, stop trading, citi group makes it... The beauty of this plan is that the government doesn't have to spend a single red cent, but it would fix what the y should have fixed last year... The success of my plan would get all the markets fixed at once, and again, read my lips, it would not be a bailout for those who are still worried about that, even in the late innings of this economy and this market... The government gets a quarter of the upside and everyone makes it... I think its the solution... Listen government, it's the solution... I bet the government never looses a penny, and owning a stake in warrants of Fannie and Freddie would be a win for all of us, for you, for me, for us taxpayers... Especially because there would be no more ratings fees, virtually no administrative overhead, only about 1% of all Fannie and Freddie mortgages have actually defaulted, I mean, it's really only the last two years that there's a problem, so we'll work through this...

With my plan, the big mortgage firms would buy mortgages and sell treasuries, lowering mortgage rates... We could stop this decline in housing... But remember, that's what causes, other than oil and gas is, the decline in housing, it's wrecking the economy... The government makes a fortune from taxpayers, we all live happily every after... By the way, if successful, it would not just fix the banks, it might fix all of the markets... Without any bailout, without really any moral hazard... I mean in this scenario... Here is my gameplan... Now, without the scenario, I don't know...

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Next week's business, I'm not all that sanguine about... Let's take a look at it...

On Monday, Genentech Inc. (DNA) reports... This has been part of our Field Manual for Recessions... I think you want to buy half before and half after, this is the story of Avastin, which develops over multiple years, so there's no reason to bet on the quarter... We just like healthcare and lifesaving drugs and you know the bad publicity should already be in the stock, courtesy of friends in the New York Times, who almost broke the back of Fannie and Freddie...

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Then Tuesday, before the opening, Eaton Corp. (ETN) reports... Oh, do I love ETN... I mean, I know it's just a stock, but I think it's pretty darn good... I think this is the ultimate new tech play with fuel efficient transmissions, hybrid engines, power quality systems, all of which save energy... Totally unheard of, other than on Mad Money... I can't back away from this one...

We've also got on Tuesday... Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), the brothers Johnson, and you know I'm not just talking about a strawberry 23 letter... This will probably be the best story of the week now that healthcare is back in fashion, even though it faces some real generic competition... I think if the market is weak Monday, you buy some JNJ...

Then, after the close Intel (INTC) reports, I don't like tech, all right... including this one... I'm not going to tell you to buy it... I think its still best of breed and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is doing really, really badly... so INTC certainly has open field running, its literally why it's being investigated... So, no, but I do want to point it out because all eyes are going to be upon it... Except for mine...

We've also gotten, and this is a compelling one, VF Corp. (VFC)...  Think North Face, okay?... They're reporting after the close on Tuesday... This company already preannounced better than expected earnings last week and it's down from then... Down three points... I mean, come on, that's nutty... VFC is the only apparel company I would recommend buying here, although I have a soft spot for Jones Apparel (JNY)... I think that VFC is going to have a great second half...

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On Wednesday, Yum! Brands (YUM)... Oh boy, is this controversial, because you know how much we like David Novak, the CEO... YUM reports after the close... I've watched this one closely... I think YUM will mention jalapenos and illness, and it will hit the stock... Not as much as Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG), because Taco Bell is only one part of YUM's business... But I predict that it will still hurt... But think about it... We have the Olympics coming up... YUM is a China story... KFC, they just can't get enough KFC over there... Believe me, KFC over there, that's like, royalty, that's like Buckingham Palace serves KFC there what they have one... I think you should wait for YUM to report... The story will probably be E-coli struck Taco Bell, and then I think you should have a great trade... So I would keep your paddle dry, wait for this one to take a hit, and then pull the trigger...

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Thursday, before the opening, we've got "knockout" which, of course, is the Wall Street term for Coca-Cola (KO)... There has been sellers of this one... and I believe it's a major bank... SunTrust Bank (STI)... (a major holder of KO stock)... But you know what?... This is a premium name, this is a Buffett name... I don't think KO will lower guidance... I'm tempted to buy some in my charitable trust ahead of the quarter... This is one of the few food and beverage companies at their 52-week low... Almost all of the others are very close to their high, including Heinz (HNZ) and General Mills Inc. (GIS)...

JPMorgan (JPM) also (reports) before the open on Thursday...

Now this is really interesting, you know I hate the financials, but if this stock is trashed by endless Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac negativity, I think you may want to buy it on Wednesday afternoon before it reports, because Jaime Dimond, CEO, has already told you that things are better than people think and the bear integration is almost over... I think he's ready for more deals...

Ooh, another crucial one... kind of like the parent company of this network today (i.e., GE), just in terms of comparisons, United Technologies (UTX) reports Thursday morning... This one has been trashed mercilessly I mean, unbelievably... I'm watching it only to take the temperature of the economy... Be careful if UTX is all down... I got to skedaddle... In other words, this is a bellweather stock because construction, aerospace, air conditioning, it's got all its bases covered...

AMD reports on Thursday, oh boy... Now, this would be a fabulous time for the AMD board to fire Mad Money Wall of Shamer Hector Ruiz (CEO)...

IBM (IBM) also reports after the close on Thursday... This will be very controversial, I think... This is the most consistent tech company I know... May I remind you that I do not like it, and I will not recommend IBM...

Microsoft (MSFT) also reports on Thursday... After the close, I don't think Palmer has anything great to say, other than the fact I like him... Just another tech stock...

And finally, Merrill Lynch (MER) comes out after the close Thursday... I mean now, Merrill Lynch... I think this is important, people want to hear anything good, but come on... It's a financial... I don't expect anything good... They do need to announce they've sold their Bloomberg stake and their BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) stake, which I do think they need to do to right the ship.

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The Bottom Line!:      Before you can make your trades next week, and I think we have to get out from under the dark cloud of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)... I have given the government a plan... They didn't listen to me last year when I said they know nothing... I doubt they'll do it this time either... Hey, but at least my hands are clean...

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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


DNA

77.75

na

Genentech Inc. (DNA)


ETN

80.93

na

Eaton Corp. (ETN)


JNJ

66.26

na

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)


INTC

20.64

na

Intel (INTC)


AMD

4.84

na

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)


VFC

70.64

na

VF Corp. (VFC)


YUM

35.68

na

Yum! Brands (YUM)


KO

50.27

na

Coca-Cola (KO)


JPM

33.16

na

JPMorgan (JPM)


UTX

60.69

na

United Technologies (UTX)


IBM

122.12

na

IBM (IBM)


MSFT

25.25

na

Microsoft (MSFT)


MER

27.61

na

Merrill Lynch (MER)


       

 

 

 



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