JJC: The speed
with which both
Fannie Mae (FNM)
and
Freddie Mac (FRE)
pretty much evaporated,
well even for this
grizzled 63-year-old, was
just plain frightening...
The fact that my old
friend, buddy, pal, Bill
Poole said they were
insolvent yesterday, the
plant in the New York
Times that said that
nationalization could be
on the horizon, almost
destroyed the whole
market... But the
president's change of view
this very day, a true
conversion, as he had been
the historic sworn enemy
of these companies, helped
us do better later in the
day...
The president has made it
clear first time... Fannie
and Freddie don't need
more capitol... He's still
the boss... Everyone,
including all the
examiners will now listen
to him... Now let me offer
a plan of my own that
could cause a massive
rally in equities... If
this administration wanted
to end this controversy
and ignite the housing
market, it could make more
implicit the guarantee of
all debt, and it is
trillions of debt of
Fannie and Freddie, simply
by taking 20% of these
companies in warrants,
that's like if you're old
enough like I am,
Chrysler, that's what we
did with Chrysler, very
successful bail out...
Mortgages would then
become the new treasuries,
and the scrambler would be
on to buy them and sell
treasuries for a huge wind
that could stop the house
price depreciation cold,
not that they'll listen...
But if they adopt my plan,
here's what I think would
happen... I think the
mortgage market, yes, how
you price your mortgage
would immediately rally
1-2 full points as
mortgages suddenly morph
into treasuries and put
any flows right back into
its system... The bank
stocks would go from bear
to bull and all of these
credit defaults you hear
about all day, they'd
implode, putting more
pressure up, upside on
banks...
Lehman Brothers
(LEH),
rallies 15 in this plan,
Wachovia Corp. (WB),
Bank of America (BAC)
thrive... Get this, change
of pace, stop trading,
citi group makes it... The
beauty of this plan is
that the government
doesn't have to spend a
single red cent, but it
would fix what the y
should have fixed last
year... The success of my
plan would get all the
markets fixed at once, and
again, read my lips, it
would not be a bailout for
those who are still
worried about that, even
in the late innings of
this economy and this
market... The government
gets a quarter of the
upside and everyone makes
it... I think its the
solution... Listen
government, it's the
solution... I bet the
government never looses a
penny, and owning a stake
in warrants of Fannie and
Freddie would be a win for
all of us, for you, for
me, for us taxpayers...
Especially because there
would be no more ratings
fees, virtually no
administrative overhead,
only about 1% of all
Fannie and Freddie
mortgages have actually
defaulted, I mean, it's
really only the last two
years that there's a
problem, so we'll work
through this...
With my plan, the big
mortgage firms would buy
mortgages and sell
treasuries, lowering
mortgage rates... We could
stop this decline in
housing... But remember,
that's what causes, other
than oil and gas is, the
decline in housing, it's
wrecking the economy...
The government makes a
fortune from taxpayers, we
all live happily every
after... By the way, if
successful, it would not
just fix the banks, it
might fix all of the
markets... Without any
bailout, without really
any moral hazard... I mean
in this scenario... Here
is my gameplan... Now,
without the scenario, I
don't know...
. . . .
.
Next week's business, I'm
not all that sanguine
about... Let's take a look
at it...
On Monday,
Genentech Inc. (DNA)
reports... This has been
part of our Field Manual
for Recessions... I think
you want to buy half
before and half after,
this is the story of
Avastin, which develops
over multiple years, so
there's no reason to bet
on the quarter... We just
like healthcare and
lifesaving drugs and you
know the bad publicity
should already be in the
stock, courtesy of friends
in the New York Times, who
almost broke the back of
Fannie and Freddie...
. . . .
.
Then Tuesday, before the
opening,
Eaton Corp. (ETN)
reports... Oh, do I love
ETN... I mean, I know it's
just a stock, but I think
it's pretty darn good... I
think this is the ultimate
new tech play with fuel
efficient transmissions,
hybrid engines, power
quality systems, all of
which save energy...
Totally unheard of, other
than on Mad Money... I
can't back away from this
one...
We've also got on
Tuesday...
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ),
the brothers Johnson, and
you know I'm not just
talking about a strawberry
23 letter... This will
probably be the best story
of the week now that
healthcare is back in
fashion, even though it
faces some real generic
competition... I think if
the market is weak Monday,
you buy some JNJ...
Then, after the close
Intel (INTC)
reports, I don't like
tech, all right...
including this one... I'm
not going to tell you to
buy it... I think its
still best of breed and
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
(AMD)
is doing really, really
badly... so INTC certainly
has open field running,
its literally why it's
being investigated... So,
no, but I do want to point
it out because all eyes
are going to be upon it...
Except for mine...
We've also gotten, and
this is a compelling one,
VF Corp. (VFC)...
Think North Face, okay?...
They're reporting after
the close on Tuesday...
This company already
preannounced better than
expected earnings last
week and it's down from
then... Down three
points... I mean, come on,
that's nutty... VFC is the
only apparel company I
would recommend buying
here, although I have a
soft spot for
Jones Apparel (JNY)...
I think that VFC is going
to have a great second
half...
. . . .
.
On Wednesday,
Yum! Brands (YUM)...
Oh boy, is this
controversial, because you
know how much we like
David Novak, the CEO...
YUM reports after the
close... I've watched this
one closely... I think YUM
will mention jalapenos and
illness, and it will hit
the stock... Not as much
as
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
(CMG),
because Taco Bell is only
one part of YUM's
business... But I predict
that it will still hurt...
But think about it... We
have the Olympics coming
up... YUM is a China
story... KFC, they just
can't get enough KFC over
there... Believe me, KFC
over there, that's like,
royalty, that's like
Buckingham Palace serves
KFC there what they have
one... I think you
should wait for YUM to
report... The story
will probably be E-coli
struck Taco Bell, and then
I think you should have a
great trade... So I would
keep your paddle dry, wait
for this one to take a
hit, and then
pull the
trigger...
. . . .
.
Thursday, before the
opening, we've got
"knockout" which, of
course, is the Wall Street
term for
Coca-Cola (KO)...
There has been sellers of
this one... and I believe
it's a major bank...
SunTrust Bank (STI)...
(a major holder of KO
stock)... But you know
what?... This is a premium
name, this is a
Buffett
name... I don't think KO
will lower guidance... I'm
tempted to buy some in
my charitable trust ahead of the
quarter... This is one of
the few food and beverage
companies at their 52-week
low... Almost all of the
others are very close to
their high, including
Heinz (HNZ)
and
General Mills Inc. (GIS)...
JPMorgan (JPM)
also (reports) before the
open on Thursday...
Now this is really
interesting, you know I
hate the financials, but
if this stock is trashed
by endless Fannie Mae,
Freddie Mac negativity, I
think you may want to buy
it on Wednesday afternoon
before it reports, because
Jaime Dimond, CEO, has
already told you that
things are better than
people think and the bear
integration is almost
over... I think he's ready
for more deals...
Ooh, another crucial
one... kind of like the
parent company of this
network today (i.e., GE),
just in terms of
comparisons,
United Technologies
(UTX)
reports Thursday
morning... This one has
been trashed mercilessly I
mean, unbelievably... I'm
watching it only to take
the temperature of the
economy... Be careful if
UTX is all down... I got
to skedaddle... In other
words, this is a
bellweather stock because
construction, aerospace,
air conditioning, it's got
all its bases covered...
AMD reports on Thursday,
oh boy... Now, this would
be a fabulous time for the
AMD board to fire Mad
Money
Wall of Shamer Hector
Ruiz (CEO)...
IBM (IBM)
also reports after the
close on Thursday... This
will be very
controversial, I think...
This is the most
consistent tech company I
know... May I remind you
that I do not like it, and
I will not recommend
IBM...
Microsoft (MSFT)
also reports on
Thursday... After the
close, I don't think
Palmer has anything great
to say, other than the
fact I like him... Just
another tech stock...
And finally,
Merrill Lynch
(MER)
comes out after the close
Thursday... I mean now,
Merrill Lynch... I think
this is important, people
want to hear anything
good, but come on... It's
a financial... I don't
expect anything good...
They do need to announce
they've sold their
Bloomberg stake and their
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)
stake, which I do think
they need to do to right
the ship.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Before you can make your
trades next week, and I
think we have to get out
from under the dark cloud
of
Fannie Mae (FNM)
and
Freddie Mac (FRE)...
I have given the
government a plan... They
didn't listen to me last
year when I said they know
nothing... I doubt they'll
do it this time either...
Hey, but at least my hands
are clean...