See JNY's official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
JNY
here.
. . . .
.
After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here...
Jim: How do you
separate the winners from
the losers?... to get
blunt... the stocks that
will likely make you money
in the next six months from
the stocks that will lose
you money?...
We've done our homework...
we've done empirical
analysis... We figured
out how to best isolate the
best of the best...
Now, there are no guarantees
when it comes to the stock
market, as anyone knows...
but we have found that, when
you get behind companies
that have reported much
better-than-expected
quarters, we got the beats -
the big beats - that tend to
make you, well, good money,
as long as you get in at the
right price...
In other words, if you get a
beat, and the stock just
soars, and you can't get
back in, I'm not interested.
We are talking about right
price... We have seen
this happen over and over
and over again. And
the lesson of this
particular piece, is not
just that, if you buy the
beats, you do well.
It's that you buy the beats
at price. It's about
discipline...
Now it's also truly
empirical
that companies that report
the biggest beats tend to
have the stocks that
outperform the rest of the
market for several quarters
ahead.
Now that earnings season is
over, we're looking back...
We now can figure out who
had the biggest beats.
We know who we have as the
potential winners for the
future...
But I will tell you...
All week we looked at
these... they are all up
big, okay... They're
all up big so, if you go buy
them now, you're not
listening to what this
segment's about, which is
discipline to buy big
winners... and maybe
pass on them, if they don't
come in.
What I'm going to do this
week is give you a shopping
list... of the stocks with
the biggest upside surprises
that I really, really
like... but, remember, we
are not at prices that I'm
willing to go down the aisle
and take them...
For the most part, you will
not be able to buy these
stocks where they are right
now. They're all
flying high after great
quarters.
So what do you do?
You wait for the market to
have its inevitable
pullback... Pullbacks
are part of the equation.
And, since I can't be there
with you every second,
guiding all of your
investments, I'm giving you
the shopping list now... so
you'll know what to do when
the timing is right...
We're going to have a
down-300 day, and you've got
to whip out the shopping
list... not tomorrow!...
Just like the supermarket
throws a sale now and then,
and the stock market does
too... with this series, you
will be ready Skee Daddy...
. . . .
.
The first name on this list...
Jones Apparel (JNY)...
which you probably know as Jones New
York, Nine West, Anne Klein, L.E.I. Jeans,
Casper, or Easy Spirit, to name just a
few of the company's brands...
. . . .
.
Now, the stock is up
today. It's been up
in a straight line.
It's up 39 cents. At
one point, it was up
almost a dollar... it's up
2.13%. So, by no
means, should you buy this
one now. It is too
hot.
So, what's I'm saying here
is that JNY had a gigantic
beat. And then it
moved... and now I am
telling you that, if we
catch a big market
selloff, I like it at $17.
No higher.
Listen, the stock was at
$13-14... Believe
me, if you're patient and
prudent, and wait for a
pullback - and I think
you'll get one - this is
the one. If you
don't... well, you miss
JNY... But I've got
to do these things, so
that you're ready when
it's down because, by the
time I do it, it's too
late.
. . . .
.
JNY is one of the few
retailers that I really
like in this
environment... It's
up 21% since I recommended
it
back on January 24th...
It was my stimulus
(government check tax
stimulus refund of $600)
play at $15.49... and the
quarter it gave us last
Wednesday was a thing of
beauty... it was a great
stimulus play. The
Street was looking for
(quarterly earnings per
share of) 12 cents.
JNY did 20 cents. A
50% beat. The
highest I've seen.
The company makes women's
clothes, footwear and
jewelry, and it's run by
some seriously-smart
cookies...
JNY got out of the
department store business
at the top, selling
Barney's New York to
Ishtar, in Dubai, for $840
million, after a big
bidding war a year ago.
The only winner in that
bidding war was JNY.
I don't think they could
get anything close to that
now. I think you'd
have to pay them to take
it.
In 1997, department store
sales made up 88% of JNY.
Now, they only make up
43%. That's good.
You don't want to be
hostage.
This company also made a
great deal with Taylor
Swift, a big-time
multi-platinum artist
(singer), in case you're
no country music/pop
aficionado... with an
agreement to sell Taylor
Swift branded costume
jewelry and sundresses...
and potentially footwear,
handbags and sunglasses at
Wal-Mart (WMT*),
starting next spring...
I think this Wal-Mart deal
is incredible for JNY,
because they're getting
prime placement for their
products. JNY's
L.E.I. Jeans will be in
nearly 3,000 Wal-Mart
stores and 1,200 hot
spots... the best place to
move merchandise in
Wal-Mart.
JNY already launched its
L.E.I. Jeans in Wal-Mart
back in June... it's
smokin'...
It's in talks to launch
them in Wal-Mart's Canada
stores and, of course,
courting the rest of the
world after that. I
think it's one of those
deals that could be an
enormous driver for JNY
stock... more than it's
even had...
Analysts don't seem to see
it. Only two call
the company a "buy."
Four have it at "hold"...
Two at "sell"...
Notice, by the way,
Martha Stewart Living
Omnimedia (MSO)
is starting to make a move
too, as I predicted...
also because of
Wal-Mart... I'd love
that stock, if stocks
weren't just pieces of
paper...
. . . .
.
JNY has hit a bottom...
well, not really, but I
mean it's a bottom over
the long term...
And it is, at bottom, a
turnaround story, with a
great buyback and a juicy
3.1% dividend.
Remember, when it came
down to $15, the dividend
was the largest of the
retail group.
This last quarter, the
retail division reported
its first profits since
2006. Tighter
inventories since last
year too... JNY also
cut costs by $100 million
in 2007. And, this
year, it's been reaping
the rewards from those
cuts...
Right now, shoes are
really what's driving the
company... and, by the
way, footwear is still in
a bull market...
Footwear same-store sales
are up 5.8%. Overall
apparel is down 11.7%.
But that should be enough
to keep this company
going, until the Wal-Mart
kicker starts paying
off...
You can thank JNY's top
dog, Wes Card, one of the
great retail CEOs, in my
opinion, for this
fabulously pro-shareholder
deal. Buyback?...
JNY is one of the most
aggressive companies out
there, when it comes to
buying its own stock.
And, after already doing
an accelerated buyback,
JNY has authorized a $500
million repurchase
program. And, as of
the beginning of July,
$305 million bucks were
left in the buyback.
That's about 20% of the
company's
market cap.
John McClain, this
company's terrific CFO, is
behind the financials, and
you don't get me talking
about CFOs on this show,
unless they're as great as
I think this guy is...
. . . .
.
Now I know this all sounds
great, but let's talk
again about price...
Price is everything when
it comes to stocks and, at
$18.74, I do not consider
JNY a buy!
Like all the stocks I'm
going to talk about this
week on the shopping cart
series... they've
all just come out with
better-than-expected
earnings. Now you've
got to wait for this one
to come in before
considering
pulling the trigger... $17 bucks!...
Remember, this is a
shopping list, not a
buying now list!...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
I think the companies that blow away the
numbers tend to make the best buys...
Jones Apparel (JNY)
is one of them, but you've got to wait
for the right price... $17...
Otherwise, you'll probably regret the
decision and, of course, you'll hate me
for mentioning the stock.
■
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See SE's official
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SE
here.
. . . .
.
After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here...
. . . .
.
Jim's comments BEFORE the
interview:
You might have seen a
story today in The Wall
Street Journal... natural
gas firms seek outlets for
growing supplies...
On July 2nd of this year,
we recommended a stock,
Spectra Energy Corp.
(SE),
at $27 bucks. Uh,
the call hasn't really
worked yet, okay...
And one of the reasons why
it may or may not have
worked is a perception
that every company that's
associated with natural
gas, whether it transports
it, or whatever, is now in
a losing position.
I don't think that's true.
But you know what?
My view on natural gas has
been too bullish. I
was able to call a top,
but I said, remember... to
get back in them. I
was too soon. The
group's still under
pressure.
Let's find out more.
Joining me now is Fred
Fowler, President and CEO
of
Spectra Energy Corp.
(SE)...
Welcome to Mad Money Fred.
Good to see you...
. . . .
.
Jim's comments AFTER the
interview:
Good to see you, sir.
Thank you for coming on
Mad Money...
■
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above
■
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock
STOCK
SYMBOL
Closing
price
that
day
Opening
price
next
day
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each)
Go to the SUDDEN:DEATH
SEGMENT from
tonight's showhere >>
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Finance from
tonight's show stocks
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Symbol keys:
A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >>
Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself.
Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself.
Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about.
Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms":
Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back...
Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you.
Definition:'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock).
Definition:'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >>
Helpful Websites:
See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
