After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here...
Jim: Alright now, what
do you do with a stock that's down 17
points... 23%... in one day... in one
day's session?...
If the stock is
Nordson Corp. (NDSN),
which got polaxxed... just as I just
described... well, I think you've got to
sell... Sell, sell, sell!...
because it missed its quarter by 5
cents. The Street was looking for
98 cents of earnings per share, and NDSN
delivered 93 cents...
But, more importantly, its forecast for
the next quarter was 16% lower than the
Street was expecting... a
mid-point of 89 cents... The Street was
looking for $1.05.
But then, you're probably wondering...
and this is true Wall Street
knowledge... How does a 16% miss
in guidance at the company turn into a
23% decline in the stock? It seems
like reverse alchemy, doesn't it?
How is that right... for just 16 cents
of missed earnings next quarter... 5.3
million fewer dollars... to destroy $600
million worth of NDSN's value as a
company? Are we just like... have
we lost our minds on Wall Street?...
I mean, NDSN was a $2.4 billion company
before it reported... and now it's a
$1.8 billion company after?... And
then, after it went lower again
today?...
I'm telling you... that it wasn't wrong
at all...
I don't even believe the selling is
done. I think the company
has much lower to go.
. . . .
.
Now the proportions seem wrong to you,
don't they? Shouldn't a 16% miss mean a
16% haircut?... And not a 23% haircut,
plus the additional 3.8% today?...
I mean, didn't the CEO just tell us not
to worry on Erin's fabulous Street Signs
show this afternoon?...
Well the CEO may be right about the
company, but that's not what we care
about on Mad Money... We care about the
way the stock market works...
And it's not working for NDSN...
. . . .
.
As I see it, and I think the Street sees
it... When NDSN... and it's an
industrial company that makes products
used to dispense sealants, adhesives for
coatings for food, diapers, consumer
durables, housing, auto industry... When
they missed its quarter, they went from
a dependable growth company that
consistently beat earnings.... a growth
stock that all the momentum guys wanted
to own... to a stock that none of them
wanted to own. Instead of being the glue
for products like Depends, you now need
Depends if you own it...
In one day, the company seems to have
immediately lost all of its credibility
and the respect of its entire share
base, which is why I believe it fell 17
points on Friday, and why I think it's
got more to go... because it takes a
long time for the shareholder base to
change. The growth guys can't get out of
it all at once... you saw them hit it
again today... and I think NDSN will
have to be much lower, before it starts
appealing to value investors.
. . . .
.
Now, if you just look at what the
company emails are saying, you'd think
that everything was almost hunky-dory...
On the conference call, NDSN's
management was trying to do damage
control... like good politicians...
focusing on very strong performance from
two of our segments... and trying to
ignore everything that was bad.
Even the research doesn't seem to
indicate any real problems with the
company. You have to read between the
lines to see how a 5 cent earnings miss
and 15% lower guidance can be such a
disaster... This is a company where 22%
of sales are housing-related... read,
"miserable"... and 7% is auto-related...
read, "nastola"... and the auto part SUV
(i.e., large sport utility vehicles
which are steadily declining in sales)
which is now SVU (i.e., referring to
NBC's "Special Victim's Unit)... And the
results for its advanced tech segment,
which serves the electronics industry,
and was supposed to be a key driver of
NDSN's earnings growth?... They were
lower than expected too... although the
company put on a good face about this
division on Erin's show.
No one wants to own NDSN for
inconsistent earnings in one big
division... Uh uh... They were in it for
consistent, double-digit performance in
at least several divisions and at least
some positives in the others...
. . . .
.
Now this is an adhesive's company that's
been heavily dependent on a weak dollar
to compete overseas... Adhesives?... I
don't know. To me, they're a
commodity... I'm sure they think it's
proprietary, but that's how the Street
views it... And, if it's a question of
price, the strengthening dollar will
likely mean that NDSN sticks to the
bottom and can't bounce back...
But, to really understand the scope of
this catastrophe, I think you have to
look at the context of the whole year...
NDSN took its guidance up big when it
reported the quarter before this one...
So, when it missed earnings and guided
down big on Friday, that utterly
destroyed management's credibility, and
killed the reason for the stock's whole
advance...
NDSN is one of these companies that you
thought had expanded into the rest of
the world, so it seemed less vulnerable
to the U.S. economy... but like a bunch
of other industrial companies, including
many we've liked... although I never
understood the big NDSN growth story...
it saw a dramatic slowing in Europe that
nobody, especially not management, saw
coming...
Oh boy, the analysts were caught
blindsided here... they were
flabbergasted... and now they're
abandoning ship, as though it's the
Titanic, if not the Hindenburg... with
no DiCaprios among them...
. . . .
.
Now, like I said before, I believe NDSN
is going to keep going down, because it
takes a long time to change the
shareholder base...
Before this abomination of a quarter of
horrific guidance, NDSN's shareholder
base was primarily industrial growth
buyers... people who wanted to believe
they could still own industrials that
had moved aggressively overseas... The
company had beaten its expectations so
consistently that its shareholders were
lulled into thinking it was a global
growth story/lovey blanket...
. . . .
.
Suddenly, when it missed the numbers
last week, it became a global mis-growth
story, and you can't use any of the
metrics that had given it such appeal to
the growth momentum players to judge the
stock anymore. They don't want to touch
it now... and, at these prices, there's
really no one who would...
NDSN is a hot potato... going from
growth to value... and, from my
experience, that trajectory is
vicious!...
It could take as long as 18 months for
the shareholder base to change from
growth to value... and, through all that
time, the stock will likely continue to
get hammered. Over the last six months,
the stock is still up 3.8%, so this big
decline has just taken NDSN back where
it was at the beginning of its run...
but I think it needs to be lower than
that because, now that the run is over,
none of the momentum players who were
buying it will have any interest in
owning the stock at all.
There's typically a vast chasm between
what growth and momentum players are
willing to pay for a stock... and what
the value guys are now willing to pay.
NDSN was trading at 17x forward earnings
before it got its head cut off... Now
it's trading at 14x forward earnings,
and that's still not low enough...
If it got a traditional cyclical
valuation, say like
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)...
which is a darn good company... you get
an 11x multiple for CAT... which leads
to a $40.59 share price... That's 12
points below the current price. And
that's where I think NDSN is going...
A good company but, in my opinion, the
bottom line...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Nordson Corp. (NDSN),
now down $19.01 before it missed.
It still isn't a bargain, and it won't
be, until it goes much lower.
. . . .
.
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Final Segment 2
Final Segment 2
Title:
'CEO
Interview'
. . . .
.
Featured Stock(s):
Interview with Glen Tullman,
CEO Allscripts Healthcare
Solutions Inc. (MDRX)
See
MDRX's official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
MDRX
here.
After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here...
. . . .
.
Jim's comments BEFORE the
interview:
This is a tough market. You've
got to try to take gains when
you can get them. We
recommended a stock called
Allscripts Healthcare
Solutions Inc. (MDRX)
on July 1st. It then
rallied 27%, and we said to take
the money off the table, because
it's been so hard. Why did
we like MDRX? Because MDRX
is the kind of play that
actually cuts the cost of
healthcare... something that we
know that Barack Obama is in
favor of... hard to believe that
Senator McCain is against it,
frankly... And the
Medicare bill had certain
incentives for e-prescribing
systems... The best
e-prescribing system in the
world is from MDRX, which is why
we want to bring on its chairman
and CEO, Glen Tullman.
Mr. Tullman, welcome to Mad
Money...
. . . .
.
Jim's comments AFTER the interview:
Guys, this is a good story.
Yeah, I mean, look... the market's
so bad that I felt (you should) take
some off the table... But, you
know what? He's right. And
if the stock gets dinged all the way for
the dividend, we're going to come right
back and re-recommend the story.
■
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above
■
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock
STOCK
SYMBOL
Closing
price
that
day
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price
next
day
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each)
Go to the SUDDEN:DEATH
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Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
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across a caller with a stock
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indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
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the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about.
Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms":
Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back...
Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you.
Definition:'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock).
Definition:'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
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See more
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