See TROW's investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
TROW
here.
After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here...
. . . .
.
Jim: Back
on January 3rd, I put
Legg Mason Inc. (LM)
in the Sell Block... with the
stock at $73.44. I thought
Bill Miller, the legendary
money manager behind LM's
biggest fund, not to mention
the Chief Investment Officer
of Legg Mason Capital
Management, had lost his
touch, making LM one toxic
stock...
Nine months and 32 points
later, LM still hasn't learned
its lesson, so we're
re-sentencing this recidivist
asset manager to the Sell
Block... Sell, sell sell!... I
wouldn't go near this one.
This is a case of solitary
confinement... because we're
not allowed to waterboard
stocks in this country, much
to my own chagrin...
Why bother with
re-sentencing?...
The reasons are myriad, but I
think the single-worst one is
that LM is the largest holder
of
Freddie Mac (FRE),
the common stock... As of the
end of July, it owned 79.9
million shares, a 12.4% stake.
The legendary Bill Miller just
couldn't help himself... he
kept buying and buying and
buying...
How could he not see that the
government was going to have
to intervene and
potentially destroy the common
stock?...
But it's not just Freddie Mac,
although that's his most
recent bad call...
Bill Miller and LM were all
over Bear Stearns, big buyers
of Countrywide,
Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA),
now at 41 cents... They loved
Washington Mutual (WM),
now at $2.83... It was like he
was completely oblivious to
the whole mortgage mess...
Now, I said that Ben Bernanke
knew nothing but, compared to
Bill Miller, Bernanke's a
veritable Einstein...
This is the guy who fought the
Yahoo! (YHOO)
merger... the
Microsoft (MSFT)
bid... and has now seen the
stock cut in half... he fought
that. Only a Yahoo would
believe in YHOO at this
point...
What else does he own?...
How about
Qwest (Q)?...
Yeah, Quest, down 59%... How
about some
Eastman Kodak (EK),
down 42%... The black hole
that is
AIG
(AIG),
down 73%... These are all
year-over-year numbers... How
about
Sprint Nextel
(S),
down 63% year-over-year...
Bill Miller has become a
one-man wrecking crew. He buys
your stock and you're dead...
And it's not just stocks where
LM got mortgages wrong... LM
has enormous exposure to
SIV-related issues... these
toxic mortgage-related
securities that have been the
bane of so many banks... LM
says it has $3.5 billion in
remaining SIV exposure... and
about $3.1 million in cash. As
the company's had to raise
capital to support the SIV
funds, it doesn't believe it
needs to raise capital
anymore... But, gee, I think
I've heard that one before.
This is not your father's LM
which, for years, was the
best-run money management
company in the world. Now it's
totally off the reservation.
Who the heck wants to have
your money managed by the
company that got itself
neck-deep in the mortgage
mess? I mean, if they can't
run their own money for
heaven's sake... This is such
a red flag for any of LM's
potential customers. I don't
see how the company's going to
be able to attract new
investors, let alone keep old
ones...
And when you look at LM's
latest quarter, you can
actually see that the
investors are fleeing like
rats on a sinking ship...
LM had $18 billion in net cash
outflows for the quarter.
That's terrible. New money to
manage is the lifeblood of
asset management companies,
which get their profits not
from performance, obviously,
but from taking a cut of the
total assets they manage.
Now LM is running $923
billion, down 3% from the
previous quarter, and down 7%
from the previous year. I
think the capital exits will
accelerate, given the Freddie
Mac debacle. I could see it
losing 10% of its money
without a problem.
And you can't blame the market
for LM's woes; not all asset
management companies have had
to suffer during bear markets.
Back
on February 5th of 2007,
we had a "pair trade"... as
it's called. It's a long time
ago, but we compared LM - then
at $104 - with
T. Rowe Price Group,
Inc. (TROW),
at $48. Since then, TROW, the
stock, is up 20.7% during this
great bear market. LM's stock
is down 60% since we told you
to get out of it.
If TROW can perform during
troubled markets, and it
can... last quarter, it had a
net cash inflow of 2%,
something that it's maintained
for at least the last seven
quarters... then LM frankly
has no excuse at all.
This is LM's second offense.
That means it goes straight to
solitary confinement. Frankly,
this company's lucky to avoid
getting the needle.
If you want to own an asset
manager I think you should,
again, still... swap out of
this one, and into
T. Rowe Price Group,
Inc. (TROW),
which is bringing in new
money, and isn't up to its
neck in lethal
mortgage-related securities...
Here's the bottom line...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
When good money managers go bad,
don't hope the glory days will come
back. Just get out of dodge or, in
this case,
Legg Mason Inc. (LM).
Because I believe Bill Miller has lost
his touch.
. . . .
.
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Final Segment 2
Final Segment
2
Title:
'Mad Mail'...
. . . .
.
Featured
Stock(s):
See comments below...
After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here...
. . . .
.
■
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above
■
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock
STOCK
SYMBOL
Closing
price
that
day
Opening
price
next
day
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each)
Q:
Back in the
spring, you
highlighted OI.
I began
monitoring this
stock and saw
the stock price
get killed when
the natural gas
prices exploded.
Now that prices
have eased, I
would have
thought OI would
have drifted
upward.
However, just
the opposite is
the case.
It appears to be
trading at just
a little over 8x
estimated 2008
earnings.
Is this stock a
buy here, or are
other factors
that I'm missing
keeping this
stock down?...
Jim:
Stephanie Link
who works
closely with
me... who's just
terrific... she
and I were
looking at this
stock today and
we said, holy
cow, we cannot
believe it has
fallen so
much...
There's a little
bit of a demand
problem, but
you're
absolutely
right, in terms
of raw costs...
I'm looking at
it again for
my charitable trust. It is
just too darn
cheap. But
I have to tell
you, it is
chilling to see
some of these
stocks that are
owned by hedge
fund managers...
and that one's
heavy... the way
they plummet.
I think there's
real value
there. We
should call the
CEO and get him
back on.
He was terrific.
na
na
na
Mad Mail
General question
about how to
read balance
sheets, etc.
from public
companies.
Q:
Do you have a
place to go with
recommendations
for learning
(i.e., how to
read balance
sheets, cash
flow statements,
charts,
etc.)?...
Jim:
Okay, for the
people who are
advanced and
ready to go, and
want complicated
strategies that
include
understanding
the balance
sheets, that
Real Money...
I wrote that
book for you.
That's the
handbook you got
when you went to
work at my hedge
fund. For
those of you who
are more
inclined... and
don't have a lot
of time to do (homework)...
and want to do
mutual funds
which I salute,
and want to
learn about just
the basics...
that's my last
one, that's
Stay Mad For Life.
That's the
easiest one.
I should have
written it
first, but the
other one was my
handbook from my
hedge fund.
Q:
I would like to
know your
opinion on BBY.
Now that they
sell the
iPhone
and have a
recent expansion
into Russia, do
you think they
would be a good
buy?
Jim:
I believe that
there is a
resurgence in
retail coming.
I've been
buying...
suggesting
Lowe's (LOW),
Home Depot (HD),
Urban Outfitters (URBN)...
I believe that
Sears (SHLD)
has had a turn
after that last
quarter.
Uh, BBY is
pretty good.
I think those
others are
better. I
really
think that
people should
stay close to
SHLD, because,
if they get a
turn there, then
Eddie Lampert
will be
vindicated.
I stopped
talking about it
because I took
too much heat,
but I believe in
Eddie. I
started with him
at Goldman
Sachs. I
really believe
that he knows
what he is
doing.
Q:
I was wondering
what you thought
of CAG. It
lowered its
earnings
guidance and its
price has
dropped because
of it. On
the bright side,
it has a pretty
high yield.
Is this a good
buying
opportunity?
Jim:
We do not own
food stocks for
a yield, we own
them for growth.
CAG is not...
that guy is a
very good guy
who's running
it, but he has
got the worst
raw costs, other
than
Tyson Foods (TSN).
I do not want
you in CAG.
By the way,
Campbell Soup Co. (CPB)
reported a darn
good quarter
today.
That's one that
we do like.
Go to the SUDDEN:DEATH
SEGMENT from
tonight's showhere >>
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Finance from
tonight's show stocks
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Symbol keys:
A Charitable Trust stock.
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stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself.
Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself.
Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about.
Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms":
Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back...
Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you.
Definition:'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock).
Definition:'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >>
Helpful Websites:
See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.