Thursday, 09/11/08
Posted 09/12/08,  08:43 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 09/11/08

  Dow Jones: 11,433 + 164
  NASDAQ:   2,258  + 29
  S&P 500:   1,249  + 17
 
 
 
 
 
Final Segment 1
 
Final Segment 1
Title:
'The Sell Block'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

Sell:
Legg Mason Inc.
(LM)

See LM's official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for LM here.

.  .  .  .  .

Buy:
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.
(TROW)

See TROW's investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for TROW here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Sudden:Death picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

Jim:    Back on January 3rd, I put Legg Mason Inc. (LM) in the Sell Block... with the stock at $73.44. I thought Bill Miller, the legendary money manager behind LM's biggest fund, not to mention the Chief Investment Officer of Legg Mason Capital Management, had lost his touch, making LM one toxic stock...

Nine months and 32 points later, LM still hasn't learned its lesson, so we're re-sentencing this recidivist asset manager to the Sell Block... Sell, sell sell!... I wouldn't go near this one.

This is a case of solitary confinement... because we're not allowed to waterboard stocks in this country, much to my own chagrin...

Why bother with re-sentencing?...

The reasons are myriad, but I think the single-worst one is that LM is the largest holder of Freddie Mac (FRE), the common stock... As of the end of July, it owned 79.9 million shares, a 12.4% stake. The legendary Bill Miller just couldn't help himself... he kept buying and buying and buying...

How could he not see that the government was going to have to intervene and potentially destroy the common stock?...

But it's not just Freddie Mac, although that's his most recent bad call...

Bill Miller and LM were all over Bear Stearns, big buyers of Countrywide, Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA), now at 41 cents... They loved Washington Mutual (WM), now at $2.83... It was like he was completely oblivious to the whole mortgage mess...

Now, I said that Ben Bernanke knew nothing but, compared to Bill Miller, Bernanke's a veritable Einstein...

This is the guy who fought the Yahoo! (YHOO) merger... the Microsoft (MSFT) bid... and has now seen the stock cut in half... he fought that. Only a Yahoo would believe in YHOO at this point...

What else does he own?...

How about Qwest (Q)?... Yeah, Quest, down 59%... How about some Eastman Kodak (EK), down 42%... The black hole that is AIG (AIG), down 73%... These are all year-over-year numbers... How about Sprint Nextel (S), down 63% year-over-year...

Bill Miller has become a one-man wrecking crew. He buys your stock and you're dead...

And it's not just stocks where LM got mortgages wrong... LM has enormous exposure to SIV-related issues... these toxic mortgage-related securities that have been the bane of so many banks... LM says it has $3.5 billion in remaining SIV exposure... and about $3.1 million in cash. As the company's had to raise capital to support the SIV funds, it doesn't believe it needs to raise capital anymore... But, gee, I think I've heard that one before.

This is not your father's LM which, for years, was the best-run money management company in the world. Now it's totally off the reservation.

Who the heck wants to have your money managed by the company that got itself neck-deep in the mortgage mess? I mean, if they can't run their own money for heaven's sake... This is such a red flag for any of LM's potential customers. I don't see how the company's going to be able to attract new investors, let alone keep old ones...

And when you look at LM's latest quarter, you can actually see that the investors are fleeing like rats on a sinking ship...

LM had $18 billion in net cash outflows for the quarter. That's terrible. New money to manage is the lifeblood of asset management companies, which get their profits not from performance, obviously, but from taking a cut of the total assets they manage.

Now LM is running $923 billion, down 3% from the previous quarter, and down 7% from the previous year. I think the capital exits will accelerate, given the Freddie Mac debacle. I could see it losing 10% of its money without a problem.

And you can't blame the market for LM's woes; not all asset management companies have had to suffer during bear markets. Back on February 5th of 2007, we had a "pair trade"... as it's called. It's a long time ago, but we compared LM - then at $104 - with T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW), at $48. Since then, TROW, the stock, is up 20.7% during this great bear market. LM's stock is down 60% since we told you to get out of it.

If TROW can perform during troubled markets, and it can... last quarter, it had a net cash inflow of 2%, something that it's maintained for at least the last seven quarters... then LM frankly has no excuse at all.

This is LM's second offense. That means it goes straight to solitary confinement. Frankly, this company's lucky to avoid getting the needle.

If you want to own an asset manager I think you should, again, still... swap out of this one, and into T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW), which is bringing in new money, and isn't up to its neck in lethal mortgage-related securities...

Here's the bottom line...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     When good money managers go bad, don't hope the glory days will come back.  Just get out of dodge or, in this case, Legg Mason Inc. (LM).  Because I believe Bill Miller has lost his touch.

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

LM

41.64

na

Legg Mason Inc. (LM)


TROW

58.08

na

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW)

 

 

 

 



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Final Segment 2
 
Final Segment 2
Title:
'Mad Mail'...

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): See comments below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Sudden:Death picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

OI

36.39

na

Mad Mail

Owens-Illinois, Inc. (OI)

Q:    Back in the spring, you highlighted OI.  I began monitoring this stock and saw the stock price get killed when the natural gas prices exploded.  Now that prices have eased, I would have thought OI would have drifted upward.  However, just the opposite is the case.  It appears to be trading at just a little over 8x estimated 2008 earnings.  Is this stock a buy here, or are other factors that I'm missing keeping this stock down?...

Jim:
    Stephanie Link who works closely with me... who's just terrific... she and I were looking at this stock today and we said, holy cow, we cannot believe it has fallen so much...  There's a little bit of a demand problem, but you're absolutely right, in terms of raw costs...  I'm looking at it again for my charitable trust.  It is just too darn cheap.  But I have to tell you, it is chilling to see some of these stocks that are owned by hedge fund managers... and that one's heavy... the way they plummet.   I think there's real value there.  We should call the CEO and get him back on.  He was terrific.


na

na

na

Mad Mail

General question about how to read balance sheets, etc. from public companies.

Q:    Do you have a place to go with recommendations for learning (i.e., how to read balance sheets, cash flow statements, charts, etc.)?...

Jim:
    Okay, for the people who are advanced and ready to go, and want complicated strategies that include understanding the balance sheets, that Real Money... I wrote that book for you.  That's the handbook you got when you went to work at my hedge fund.  For those of you who are more inclined... and don't have a lot of time to do (homework)... and want to do mutual funds which I salute, and want to learn about just the basics... that's my last one, that's
Stay Mad For Life.  That's the easiest one.  I should have written it first, but the other one was my handbook from my hedge fund.


BBY

46.00

na

Mad Mail

Best Buy (BBY)

Q:    I would like to know your opinion on BBY.  Now that they sell the iPhone and have a recent expansion into Russia, do you think they would be a good buy?

Jim:
    I believe that there is a resurgence in retail coming.  I've been buying... suggesting Lowe's (LOW), Home Depot (HD), Urban Outfitters (URBN)...  I believe that Sears (SHLD) has had a turn after that last quarter.  Uh, BBY is pretty good.  I think those others are better.  I really  think that people should stay close to SHLD, because, if they get a turn there, then Eddie Lampert will be vindicated.  I stopped talking about it because I took too much heat, but I believe in Eddie.  I started with him at Goldman Sachs.  I really believe that he knows what he is doing.


HD

29.50

na

Mad Mail

Home Depot (HD)

See BBY comments above for:
HD


LOW

25.28

na

Mad Mail

Lowe's (LOW)

See BBY comments above for:
LOW


URBN

36.61

na

Mad Mail

Urban Outfitters (URBN)

See BBY comments above for:
URBN


SHLD

99.09

na

Mad Mail

Sears (SHLD)

See BBY comments above for:
SHLD


CAG

19.98

na

Mad Mail

ConAgra (CAG)

Q:    I was wondering what you thought of CAG. It lowered its earnings guidance and its price has dropped because of it.  On the bright side, it has a pretty high yield.  Is this a good buying opportunity?

Jim:
    We do not own food stocks for a yield, we own them for growth.  CAG is not... that guy is a very good guy who's running it, but he has got the worst raw costs, other than Tyson Foods (TSN).  I do not want you in CAG.  By the way, Campbell Soup Co. (CPB) reported a darn good quarter today.  That's one that we do like.


CPB

39.00

na

Mad Mail

Campbell Soup Co. (CPB)

See CAG comments above for:
CPB


 

       
 

 

[ end of final segment ]

   
 

Go to the SUDDEN:DEATH SEGMENT from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
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Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
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of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
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StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
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