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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Working Theory' |
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Featured Stock(s): |
Yamana Gold Inc.
(AUY)
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Savient Pharma (SVNT)
BioMarin (BMRN)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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JJC: Gold is
skyrocketing... Oil
has finally done it... It
hit $100 bucks a barrel...
We got higher prices, less
economic activity, and
inflation... and how about
a presidential campaign in
Iowa that will likely give
us some candidates that
the market thinks are
awful for business?...
So it's no wonder we were
down 221 points in the
first trading day of
2008...
It's a pity, but it's also
one we've dealt with over
and over again here in
Cramerica, and it's one
we'll keep dealing with
because, alas, there is
always some bull market
kicking around
somewhere... and
today's market screams
that oil and
infrastructure, and this
nation's absolutely absurd
love affair with ethanol
will make 2008 look a lot
like... yep... 2007.
The only adjustment we
need to make is we need to
add gold, which is why I
was already commenting
earlier in the year that I
thought it was good for
insurance, right?... But
now it looks like
insurance is paying off...
So let's just take down
some gold for
investment... It's
Barrick (ABX)
for mainstream gold, and
Yamana Gold Inc.
(AUY)
for growth gold...
. . . .
.
Since this year is looking
a lot like last year
already, we don't need to
focus on how bad the tape
is - meaning the broad
proclivity of stock...
We need to look at what
went right first... and
then what went wrong in
2007... particularly with
things I predicted... so
that you can apply these
lessons, and keep on
trying to make some mad
money in this new year...
. . . .
.
At the beginning of 2007,
I picked nine stocks of
the year... three value,
three growth and three
speculative..
The stocks collectively
were up an average of
16.4%, compared to 4% for
the S&P...
So, even though I'm all
about - as everyone knows
- self flagellation and
self-mutilation... the
results mean we need to
focus on what worked,
rather than on what
didn't...
For value, I picked
Goldman Sachs (GS*),
up 7%... I picked
Altria (MO*),
up 16%... and I picked
Halliburton (HAL),
up 27%...
Yeah, all winners...
. . . .
.
For growth, I picked
Cisco Systems, Inc.
(CSCO),
down 5%...
Apple Inc. (AAPL),
up 131%... and NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYX*),
the worst trading stock I
have ever seen, for most
of the year, which
finished down 8%...
. . . .
.
My speculative picks were
Savient Pharma (SVNT),
which I then told you to
swap out of, to
BioMarin (BMRN)...
on September 28th...
That gave you a 77%
return... and then two
real clunkers... Rite Aid Corp. (RAD),
down 50%... and
Level 3
(LVLT),
down 49%...
But we still managed to
come out on top...
. . . .
.
There's a lot we can learn
from getting introspective
here... and then analyzing
what went right...
First and foremost, these
stocks of the year show
that, if you contain your
losses, your winners will
get there.
Remember, one of the
things we learn, and we
keep teaching is, if you
can cut your losses, you
are going to make money.
We didn't have any big
losers in the growth and
value groups... And
you can see how an AAPL or
a HAL - the two big
winners - took care of all
the upside...
. . . .
.
The second takeaway is
that you need to stick
with your winners...
AAPL had been a big winner
in 2006. We liked it
then...
Then, you could have
gotten out, but nothing
had changed, except that
it had gotten better, with
the
iPhone... with more iterations
of iTunes and, most
importantly, with the
actual old Macs... and it
made you more money.
Winners win and losers
lose... what a cliché...
but, most of the time,
it's just that simple.
You've got to remember
that the market is really
- in the end - just one
big herd and, most of the
time, herds aren't that
sophisticated, and that
means, if you're
out-thinking things, well,
you're going to get it
wrong. Losers will
hurt, and winners will
help.
As long as AAPL keeps
growing at 30%, I'm on
board...
. . . .
.
The third takeaway is that
even the worst stock in a
good neighborhood... the
absolute worst stock in a
good neighborhood...
remains in the house of
pleasure...
I'm talking about here...
Prince
Halliburton (HAL)...
Do you know, that was the
worst of the oil service
bunch?... and it's still a
winner...
The
Oil Service Index
(OIH)
was up about 42%... HAL
was only up 27% for the
year...
You would have been better
off owning a different oil
driller, but anything in
that sector worked,
because rising tides do
lift all boats...
. . . .
.
The fourth lesson...
slow and steady can win
the race in stocks.
Do you know that there was
absolutely nothing
exciting about Altria
(MO*),
which is the old Phillip
Morris?... It was
just a weak dollar play
with a strong dividend...
I own it for
the trust. But
it beat the averages
handily...
One of the things I like
is that there's a guy
there by the name of
Dinyar Devitre, who's the
CFO... I am telling you
something... that guy
should stick with the
company, because they are
the best, well-managed
money team I have ever
seen.
. . . .
.
The last thing that I want
you to learn from these
stocks is that biotech is
the true stuff of
dreams... and, while it's
high reward...
Both Savient (SVNT)
and BioMarin (BMRN)
were big winners.
Of course, my other
speculative stocks... they
got annihilated...
. . . .
.
On a big down like today,
it's important to look
back at what's worked, so
you can duplicate it in
the future. And not
let yourself get all
depressed, and hopeless,
and homeless... because
the tape was so ugly...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
If you contain your
losses, your winners will
win. You need to
stick with those winners,
as long as the
fundamentals underneath
stay the same...
Even the worst stock in a
strong sector can make you
money. Slow and
steady stocks can win the
race for you and, if
you're going to speculate
in 2008, biotech is the
field to speculate in.
Stick with Cramer to see
me stick it to myself for
what went wrong with the
stocks of the year, and
then, later, I'll actually
tell you what to do with
all these stocks, and
which ones are still
super-deduper strong buys.
I have not talked to an
investor on the phone in
ages, although a lot of
guys bothered me yesterday
trying to get me to
recommend a bunch of
stocks I don't like, like
Elan Corp. plc (ELN)...
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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See all of tonight's stocks'
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