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Friday, 01/11/08
Posted 01/13/08, 11:33
pm |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Friday, 01/11/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,606 |
- 246 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,439 |
- 48 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,401 |
- 19 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Cramer's Game Plan
For Next Week'

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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Citigroup (C*)
Intel (INTC)
Washington Mutual (WM)
JPMorgan (JPM)
Parker Hannifin (PH)
Schlumberger Limited (SLB)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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JJC: This is a
two day's forward,
one-day-take-it-all-back
kind of market.
After two solid up days,
we practically trade right
back to where we started,
before the oversold
rally... right back to the
same dismal, depressing,
declining market we had
before... although we did
hold those August lows
which, for people who are
technically inclined -
meaning they look at
charts - you might
actually feel good this
weekend...
At times like this, when
I'm sure many of you are
just sick and tired of
looking at what's known as
the tape underneath, and
are hemorrhaging money,
you're not interested in
my Game Plan for trying to
make money next week...
but the fact is, I believe
next week could be the
week when expectations
have finally fallen low
enough - particularly
after the American
Express (AXP)
thing (dramatic decline)
today - that we can create
some genuine moneymaking
opportunities...
. . . .
.
Why?... Because the
fickle Federal Reserve, in
indicating that it was
inclined to ease, also
transformed bad news -
meaning weak economic news
- into good news!...
You see, the worst news we
hear, the more likely we
are to have big rate
cuts... More rate
cuts could turn around a
lot of stocks...
So, we're looking for the
better chances for the Fed
to cut, and that comes
from bad news...
Particularly, by the way,
when we hear from the
banks next week... that's
the fulcrum of the Game
Plan...
. . . .
.
So, how are we going to
play it?...
Well, first, we're betting
that the Fed keep its
word... Bad is
good... and that's going
to be our mantra for next
week and beyond...
the more negative news,
the more likely we get big
cuts... but one huge,
huge, huge caveat...
If the PPI and CPI (i.e.,
producer price index and
the consumer price index)
- if we see inflation
roaring - then everything
that might be intriguing
to buy in this Game Plan
probably won't work...
because that means they'll
stop Bernanke from doing
anything helpful...
. . . .
.
Now, let me tell you about
the opportunities next
week that this mantra of
'bad news is now good
news' makes possible...
First, on Monday, MacWorld
starts... I have
never seen such low
expectations, going into
MacWorld, in my life...
Steve Jobs (i.e., CEO of
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
is going to be talking...
he's got new stuff
maybe... no one's even
focused on that... I
think you could take a
shot... a shot at buying
AAPL in the morning, if
the market opens down,
like I think it will.
MacWorld's on the west
coast... It'll start later
in the day, thanks to
pacific time... This
stock's been clobbered.
And, even though AAPL
won't unveil anything
nearly as sexy as last
year's
iPhone, I do think we'll hear about
soaring Mac sales, and we
already know the iPhone is
making boat loads of money
from
AT&T (T).
Low expectations... great
speaker... Steve Jobs...
means upside.
. . . .
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Tuesday... Tuesday's big.
We've got
Citigroup (C*)
and we've got
Intel (INTC),
okay?...
These are both earnings
reports. I expect
monster chargeoffs from
C*, a huge dividend cut,
and the possible
announcement of an outside
investor. But, if
Vikram Pandit, who's the
new CEO, repudiates the
legacy of one of the worst
CEOs in the history of
America, Chuck Prince, and
says that, when it comes
to selling, everything is
on the table, including
all that junk that Prince
loaded up the balance
sheet with, then I think
that INTC bottoms.
Intel (INTC)...
INTC has gone from adored
to hated in 60 seconds...
The expectations have
gotten so low that it
could really rally after
it reports, even if it
says nothing.
Remember, its competitor,
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD),
is totally hobbled.
INTC should pay them to
make sure that they stay
afloat... if only to stop
this ridiculous anti-trust
investigation by the New
York State Attorney
General...
. . . .
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On Wednesday,
JPMorgan (JPM)
and Wells Fargo (WFC)
report. Remember, I
told you, it's chock full
of banks...
WFC is a candidate to buy
Washington Mutual (WM)
before it limps into
receivership... The
network earlier talked
about JPM doing it... I
think both of them would
be interested.
That means you want to
start thinking about that
stock, even though its
quarter will be terrible.
As for JPM, last time,
they got a pass...
They reported a so-so
quarter, but everybody
like it... and they got a
pass because the CEO,
Jamie Dimond, is perceived
by everyone on Wall Street
as the greatest - true or
not. And they'll do
it again...
I regard Jamie Dimond as
the Mohammed Ali of
CEOs... you can't lay a
glove on this guy.
If
Citigroup (C*)
goes higher on Tuesday,
then I think you buy JPM
mid-day Tuesday to play
the thrilla in Manila...
. . . .
.
Thursday is problematic,
but since bad news is now
good news, maybe I should
call it encouraging....
We've got
Merrill Lynch
(MER)
and
Washington Mutual (WM)...
Okay... these are both
going to be - without a
doubt - two of the most
horrible, ugly... house of
pain quarters you are ever
going to see... Now, many
financials are in a
desperate need of sheiks
(as in Arab sheiks) to
bail them out, but there
just aren't enough sheiks
to go around... a sheik
shortage, if you will...
and I don't know if
they're going to bother
with WM. I think
it's going to be some
other bank, and it's
certainly not going to be
at this price... meaning
lower. But there
could be some good news...
Even though they've got
terrible, bad real estate
loans, and they've got
terrible disclosure, we
have Kerry Killinger, the
CEO, on the
Wall of Shame... and
you know how long
executives last on the
Wall of Shame... and
I think it's entirely
possible that, as WM
offers horrid disclosures
and is clueless about how
bad things really are,
you've got to take it on
faith from me that this
could be the day (of
reckoning) from Kerry
Killinger's career...
he's got too many skanky
loans that should explode
later on. I think
Killinger's out next
week...
. . . .
.
The good on Thursday... is
Parker Hannifin (PH)...
It's an industrial company
that's firing on all
cylinders that could
announce a big buyback,
and has upside. It's
down 20 straight points.
My money is on PH.
. . . .
.
Come Friday,
Schlumberger (SLB)
reports...
Last time that SLB
reported, nobody like it,
and they disappointed...
But this titan of oil
service will be hungry to
re-establish its
pre-eminence. That
said, this trade only
works if oil's up from its
current price a week from
now.
So, if oil goes up
Wednesday, off the low
inventory number, I think
you buy it right then and
there. Otherwise,
you've got to take a
pass...
. . . .
.
But beyond all of these
stocks, remember that
earnings season is an
awful time to try to make
money. Most of the
market's gains happen away
from earnings season.
There's too much confusion
out there so, if you don't
understand any of these
trades, do the smart thing
and take a pass.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Bad news for
the financials next week
could mean good news for
the market, because it
means that the Fed may
actually keep its promise,
and offer
substantive easings...
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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See all of tonight's stocks'
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
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AAPL |
172.69 |
177.60 |
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
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C* |
28.56 |
28.95 |
Citigroup (C*)
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INTC |
21.99 |
22.89 |
Intel (INTC)
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WM |
14.69 |
14.91 |
Washington Mutual (WM)
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JPM |
40.86 |
41.27 |
JPMorgan (JPM)
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PH |
64.47 |
65.12 |
Parker Hannifin (PH)
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SLB |
94.01 |
94.77 |
Schlumberger Limited (SLB)
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Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
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Final Segment 1
Title: |
'On The Line'...
'Gold Standard'
CEO Interview
Peter Marrone, CEO
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. . . .
. |
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Featured Stock(s): |
Yamana Gold Inc.
(AUY)
See AUY's website
here.
Yahoo! Finance profile for AUY
here.
Google News search for AUY news
here.
2nd segment picks
below...
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Jim's comments BEFORE
the interview:
In this market,
moneymaking stocks are
harder to find than a
needle - or maybe a
handful of needles - in a
haystack...
Even with talk of more
rate cuts coming... only a
few more stocks will join
the winner's column...
When I tell you, there is
always a bull market
somewhere, that's
absolutely true and 100%
sincere...
And, right now, it cannot
be denied that gold -
which hit $900 an ounce
today - is completely and
utterly en fuego!...
This is one area that's
delivered, and should keep
delivering... And,
within the gold universe,
my longtime favorite
growth stock... my
unbelievably favorite
unrelenting positive gold
stock is
Yamana
(AUY)!
Now,
back on December 6th,
I recommended AUY - along
with
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX)
- which I also think is
great - as an example of
the kind of stock you
should hang onto, even if
it doesn't make you
money... The idea
then, taken from the third
new rule in
Stay Mad For Life
- my new guide to personal
finance - says that you
need some stocks as
insurance. Gold
stocks are insurance
against inflation and
economic turbulence, just
like collision is
insurance for a car...
[See Jim's complete
recommendation comments
for AUY from December
6th's show
here.]
So, even if you believe
the Fed will start easing
with real verve, and
inflation is nothing to
worry about, you may still
want a position in a gold
stock, to hedge against
the risk that you're
wrong... Remember,
we are fallible... That
way, even if the stock
lags, you've got at least
one that will make money
if the rest of your
portfolio gets killed, and
that's what I mean about
insurance.
This time around, paying
your premiums has really
paid off.
Yamana
(AUY)
- up from
$13.13
on December 6th, to
$16.40... I call that a
mega 23% gain in one of
the worst markets in a
little more than a month.
The stock was at $8.20
back on October 14th of
2006... Hmm...
doesn't that smell like a
100% gain?...
But you had to have
patience to make money in
AUY...
Last year, when base
metals were outperforming
gold, and AUY spent a long
time stuck in the mud, a
lot of people turned on
the stock... they turned
on me! Now gold's up
40% year-over-year...
It's nearing its all-time
highs.
Gold is such a great
hedge, because it tends to
go up when bad things
happen. And bad
things are happening right
now... We've got an
economic slowdown in
America... economic
uncertainty throughout the
globe... higher oil
prices... weak dollar...
All these drive gold
higher, as does
stagflation, and it's
going to keep driving it.
AUY's my pick here,
because it's got
tremendous production
growth... AUY aims to grow
annual production at a 50%
clip by 2009. Their
cash costs - what they
have to pay to get the
gold - are low and
sustainable...
They're producing more of
an increasing-expensive
metal for less money...
What could be better?
I believe AUY's a straight
up winner, but I do not
know if I would've been
able to stick with it last
year, if I hadn't been
able to trust one man... a
man who convinced me
personally that it was
worth buying, almost a
year ago,
on January 8th, 2007,
at $11.54 and, once before
that, when it was
appreciably lower at $6...
We have, just since last
year, a 42% gain... and
that man's name is Peter
Marrone. He's the
chairman and CEO of AUY,
and a proven moneymaker,
who we've got on the show
right now...
. . . .
.
Jim's comments
AFTER
the interview:
All right, everybody...
listen up, okay? Do you
own a gold stock? You're
going to need a gold stock
in 2008, and I am telling
you that, as I said in
2007... As I said in
2006... and those who knew
me in 2005... the play...
the one you want to buy...
the one I am telling you
to buy... buy, buy,
buy!... is
Yamana Gold Inc.
(AUY),
because Peter Marrone's
got a growth strategy. You
just heard it. He's money!
|
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
 |
AUY |
16.40 |
17.48 |
Yamana Gold Inc.
(AUY)
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ABX |
51.20 |
52.56 |
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX)
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Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
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Symbol keys: |
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A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
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Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about. |
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Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms": |
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Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back... |
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Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you. |
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Definition: 'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock). |
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Definition: 'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >> |
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Helpful Websites: |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Warren
Buffett's portfolio
of
stocks at:
warren-buffett-portfolio.com |
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Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
StockHomework101.com
This site is coming soon.
Thank you. |
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FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
Fast Money Recap - Trades
for next day...
Compare these picks to Jim's
comments for the same
stocks. |
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© 2005-2007 MadMoneyRecap.com ■
Important disclaimer: This site is
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Cramer, and is not associated with
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thumbs up or thumbs down
indicators are not always clearly
indicated on the show and are
interpreted by us as accurately as
possible. Some comments have been
edited for brevity and clarity,
and extraneous material omitted. Please rely on watching
the show yourself, doing
your own homework,
and reading the text of the
comments to draw your own
conclusions. Also, data presented
on this site should not be used to
make investment decisions and
accuracy, although attempted,
cannot be guaranteed. Please
consult with your own financial
advisor for professional advice. |
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