Thursday, 01/17/08
Posted 01/18/08,  8:16 am

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 01/17/08

  Dow Jones: 12,159    - 306
  NASDAQ:   2,346     - 47
  S&P 500:   1,333     - 39
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'The Sell Block'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Selling All Casino Stocks...

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN)
MGM Mirage (MGM)



See Opening Segment 2, below...

        

JJC:   What I'm telling you tonight... I believe nothing, and want only to put the casinos... that's right, the casino stocks - sell, sell, sell! - in this truncated - because of the tough market - Sell Block...

The casinos are dealing with the real estate collapse that is just as bad as everywhere else, maybe worse, and a slowing, maybe recessionary economy...

That's why Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) missed by 19 cents the last time it reported, and the Nevada gaming authority reported Las Vegas strip casinos won 19% less money in November, than they did last year...

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) and MGM Mirage (MGM) managed to beat earnings, but I'm telling you to sell them now too - sell, sell, sell!...  especially MGM, where they're making a tender offer...

I think you want to tender every share you have of MGM in this Dutch Auction... They're buying up to 15 million shares... what an opportunity!  The house loses... you win before everything falls apart.

.  .  .  .  .

How bad is this business?... How much is it getting squeezed?...

A casino developer, named Bruce Eichner just defaulted on a $760 million loan from Deutsche Bank... a loan that was supporting the $3 billion Cosmopolitan Resort and Casino in Vegas...

A lot of these casino stocks had been held up by high real estate values - MGM especially.  The values, I am telling you, are going down fast!  Please, please... Sell, sell, sell!...

During the last real estate downturn, between June & November of 1990, MGM fell by 26%.  Harrah's lost 56%.  I think it's going to be a lot worse. 

And it's not just the lousy economy... The fact is, it's more expensive than ever for people to go to Vegas or Atlantic City...  The cost of gas on a roundtrip between New York and Atlantic City is up 37% since two years ago...How about Los Angeles to Vegas?...Up 26%.

Even if the economy were going strong, the casinos would still have to deal with increased competition... Six new casinos under construction in Vegas... 40,000 new rooms coming on... 

Since the money up for grabs is shrinking, and there are more players trying to grab it, I'm telling you business will not be good... They're overbuilding and they've already overbuilt and, believe me, they're going to pay for it.   I don't want you paying for it...      

.  .  .  .  .

How about the Indian casinos?... 460 commercial casinos in America... 372 Indian casinos... big competition.  

How about the disappointing numbers coming out of Macau?...

The Street was expecting growth of 75%.  We're getting 40-45%.  A lot of growth, but a major disappointment, and Macau's much stronger than Vegas lately, so they're hurting... We must be in really big trouble.   When you top all that off with a slowing economy that causes fewer people to visit casinos, and it makes them have smaller bets, you've got a real industry downturn.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     You need to seriously consider selling your casino stocks before they even lose you more money!


[See Jim's 2nd Opening Segment stock picks below... ]

 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance


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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

LVS

74.46

73.55

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)


WYNN

96.89

97.03

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN)

MGM

67.81

67.61

MGM Mirage (MGM)

 


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Second Segment
 
 
Final Segment 1 Title: 'Second Wind'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Wind River Systems Inc. (WIND)

See WIND's website here.

Yahoo! Finance profile for WIND here.


2nd segment picks below...



Hey, the market's horrible... you don't need me to tell you that... but it doesn't mean I'm ever going to stop looking for a company that could be a value to another company, if not to you.

We're not going to be looking at a blind opportunity... we're not going to be aggressive.  We know it's a bear market, but we've got to keep looking...

I mean, that's why we've been hunting all week for notes from the tech underground...  I've been doing a series on tech stocks that have been beaten down and washed out, and I have said that they could go lower, but I have also said that they are below their intrinsic value, and their businesses are still going strong.

.  .  .  .  .

Tonight, my down-but-not-out tech stock... it's a little guy, you'll like it, but don't pay up for it, because it's little... is Wind River Systems (WIND).

It's off 33% since November.  Nothing's happened...  This is actually better than November.

In light of the BEA Systems (BEAS) deal we got yesterday, I'm thinking WIND makes a great takeover candidate.  It could make you a bundle at these prices, and the business is good.  It's not like I'm recommending something bad that I hope gets taken over...

.  .  .  .  .

It makes what are called embedded systems... These consist of a microprocessor and an operating system... the operating system is the software the processor runs...

See WIND's website and profile to do more homework on what this company does.

.  .  .  .  .

All right, what's the real hook here?...

WIND has teamed up with Google Inc. (GOOG)...  GOOG's open handset alliance, along with LIMO, they were the only Linux OS (i.e., operating system) provider that was highlighted in Google's Android press release...

In other words, in a bull market, we'd be paying twice this already, because of just the relationship with Google... but we're not in a bull market, we're in a bear market...

On December 20th, an analyst from Benchmark - a good firm - talked about a meeting he had with WIND's management, when they hinted that there are "several trophy deals" in the pipe...

Hey, what do I think?... I think it sounds like a good, big deal and maybe works for Google... You probably want to get in ahead of it... no urgency. 

.  .  .  .  .

This $619 million stock has only gotten cheaper, about a quarter above its 52-week low right now...

You'd think it has a lot of debt, right?  But it has an immaculate balance sheet... It has $111 million in cash, no debt at all.  That's what a good takeover target should look like.

For a takeover to happen, WIND needs a suitor... and I think it would be attractive to the usual suspects...  SAP (SAP), Oracle (ORCL), Cisco (
CSCO), especially IBM (IBM), Motorola (MOT)...

IBM bought Telogic, a company that makes embedded software, part of what WIND does, and we know that IBM's making hay with their acquisition, actually up today... They just did that in June... they're clearly interested in the space...

Given WIND's work in the mobile handset - think of Google's contract - this one should definitely be attractive to MOT, which needs growth...

We wouldn't be surprised if Icahn, looking at how much money he made on the last deal, valued this one in the mid-teens.  He could be skeptical about gains this big, given the weakness in the market, and we're not calling for a turn in the market... We think it's a bear market, and we think it goes lower... We're not calling for a turn in this market...

But we're talking about tech players with hoards of cash... cash that they're desperate to spend on growth, and will pay.   Remember, these guys don't need to borrow to acquire anybody, and this is a natural.      

.  .  .  .  .

Even without a takeover, WIND's fundamentals are solid, and you can bet there are some upcoming catalysts, thanks to their work with Google and the open handset alliance.  There could be some big gains.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     We are not saying the market's done going down...  We are saying please don't buy in the aftermarket, because these stocks aren't necessarily going to run right now.  We're saying, maybe it's a tech needle in a haystack...  It's been sold off in a panic... it's gotten too cheap... and we think it recovers.



.  .  .  .  .


 


 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

WIND

8.15

8.59

Wind River Systems Inc. (WIND)

 

       

 

   
 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>


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Symbol keys:

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Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
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