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Thursday, 01/17/08
Posted 01/18/08, 8:16
am |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Thursday, 01/17/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,159 |
-
306 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,346 |
- 47 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,333 |
-
39 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'The Sell Block'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Selling All Casino
Stocks...
Las Vegas Sands Corp.
(LVS)
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN)
MGM Mirage (MGM)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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JJC: What I'm
telling you tonight... I
believe nothing, and want
only to put the casinos...
that's right, the casino
stocks - sell, sell, sell!
- in this truncated -
because of the tough market -
Sell Block...
The casinos are dealing
with the real estate
collapse that is just as
bad as everywhere else,
maybe worse, and a
slowing, maybe recessionary
economy...
That's why
Las Vegas Sands Corp.
(LVS)
missed by 19 cents the
last time it reported, and
the Nevada gaming
authority reported Las
Vegas strip casinos won
19% less money in
November, than they did
last year...
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN)
and MGM Mirage (MGM)
managed to beat earnings,
but I'm telling you to
sell them now too - sell,
sell, sell!...
especially MGM, where
they're making a tender
offer...
I think you want to tender
every share you have of
MGM in this Dutch
Auction... They're buying
up to 15 million shares...
what an opportunity!
The house loses... you win
before everything falls
apart.
. . . .
.
How bad is this business?... How
much is it getting squeezed?...
A casino developer, named Bruce
Eichner just defaulted on a $760
million loan from Deutsche Bank...
a loan that was supporting the $3
billion Cosmopolitan Resort and
Casino in Vegas...
A lot of these casino stocks had
been held up by high real estate
values - MGM especially. The
values, I am telling you, are
going down fast! Please,
please... Sell, sell, sell!...
During the last real estate
downturn, between June & November
of 1990, MGM fell by 26%.
Harrah's lost 56%. I think
it's going to be a lot worse.
And it's not just the lousy
economy... The fact is, it's more
expensive than ever for people to
go to Vegas or Atlantic City...
The cost of gas on a roundtrip
between New York and Atlantic City
is up 37% since two years
ago...How about Los Angeles to
Vegas?...Up 26%.
Even if the economy were going
strong, the casinos would still
have to deal with increased
competition... Six new casinos
under construction in Vegas...
40,000 new rooms coming on...
Since the money up for grabs is
shrinking, and there are more
players trying to grab it, I'm
telling you business will not be
good... They're overbuilding and
they've already overbuilt and,
believe me, they're going to pay
for it. I don't want
you paying for it...
. . . .
.
How about the Indian
casinos?... 460 commercial
casinos in America... 372
Indian casinos... big
competition.
How about the
disappointing numbers
coming out of Macau?...
The Street was expecting
growth of 75%. We're
getting 40-45%. A
lot of growth, but a major
disappointment, and
Macau's much stronger than
Vegas lately, so they're
hurting... We must be in
really big trouble.
When you top all that off
with a slowing economy
that causes fewer people
to visit casinos, and it
makes them have smaller
bets, you've got a real
industry downturn.
. . . .
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The Bottom Line!:
You
need to seriously consider
selling your casino stocks
before they even lose you
more money!
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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Most popular
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
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LVS |
74.46 |
73.55 |
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)
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WYNN |
96.89 |
97.03 |
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN)
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MGM |
67.81 |
67.61 |
MGM Mirage (MGM)
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Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
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Final Segment 1
Title: |
'Second Wind'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Wind River Systems Inc. (WIND)
See WIND's website
here.
Yahoo! Finance profile for WIND
here.
2nd segment picks
below...
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Hey, the market's
horrible... you don't need
me to tell you that... but
it doesn't mean I'm ever
going to stop looking for
a company that could be a
value to another company,
if not to you.
We're not going to be
looking at a blind
opportunity... we're not
going to be aggressive.
We know it's a bear
market, but we've got to
keep looking...
I mean, that's why we've
been hunting all week for
notes from the tech
underground... I've
been doing a series on
tech stocks that have been
beaten down and washed
out, and I have said that
they could go lower, but I
have also said that they
are below their intrinsic
value, and their
businesses are still going
strong.
. . . .
.
Tonight, my
down-but-not-out tech
stock... it's a little
guy, you'll like it, but
don't pay up for it,
because it's little... is
Wind River Systems (WIND).
It's off 33% since
November. Nothing's
happened... This is
actually better than
November.
In light of the BEA
Systems (BEAS)
deal we got yesterday, I'm
thinking WIND makes a
great takeover candidate.
It could make you a bundle
at these prices, and the
business is good.
It's not like I'm
recommending something bad
that I hope gets taken
over...
. . . .
.
It makes what are called
embedded systems... These
consist of a
microprocessor and an
operating system... the
operating system is the
software the processor
runs...
See WIND's
website and
profile to do more
homework on what this
company does.
. . . .
.
All right, what's the real
hook here?...
WIND has teamed up with
Google Inc. (GOOG)...
GOOG's open handset
alliance, along with LIMO,
they were the only Linux
OS (i.e., operating
system) provider that was
highlighted in Google's
Android press release...
In other words, in a bull
market, we'd be paying
twice this already,
because of just the
relationship with
Google... but we're not in
a bull market, we're in a
bear market...
On December 20th, an
analyst from Benchmark - a
good firm - talked about a
meeting he had with WIND's
management, when they
hinted that there are
"several trophy deals" in
the pipe...
Hey, what do I think?... I
think it sounds like a
good, big deal and maybe
works for Google... You
probably want to get in
ahead of it... no urgency.
. . . .
.
This $619 million stock
has only gotten cheaper,
about a quarter above its
52-week low right now...
You'd think it has a lot
of debt, right? But
it has an immaculate
balance sheet... It has
$111 million in cash, no
debt at all. That's
what a good takeover
target should look like.
For a takeover to happen,
WIND needs a suitor... and
I think it would be
attractive to the usual
suspects... SAP (SAP),
Oracle (ORCL),
Cisco
(CSCO),
especially
IBM (IBM),
Motorola (MOT)...
IBM bought Telogic, a
company that makes
embedded software, part of
what WIND does, and we
know that IBM's making hay
with their acquisition,
actually up today... They
just did that in June...
they're clearly interested
in the space...
Given WIND's work in the
mobile handset - think of
Google's contract - this
one should definitely be
attractive to MOT, which
needs growth...
We wouldn't be surprised
if Icahn, looking at how
much money he made on the
last deal, valued this one
in the mid-teens. He
could be skeptical about
gains this big, given the
weakness in the market,
and we're not calling for
a turn in the market... We
think it's a bear market,
and we think it goes
lower... We're not calling
for a turn in this
market...
But we're talking about
tech players with hoards
of cash... cash that
they're desperate to spend
on growth, and will pay.
Remember, these guys don't
need to borrow to acquire
anybody, and this is a
natural.
. . . .
.
Even without a takeover,
WIND's fundamentals are
solid, and you can bet
there are some upcoming
catalysts, thanks to their
work with Google and the
open handset alliance.
There could be some big
gains.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
We are not saying the
market's done going
down... We are
saying please don't buy in
the aftermarket, because
these stocks aren't
necessarily going to run
right now. We're
saying, maybe it's a tech
needle in a haystack...
It's been sold off in a
panic... it's gotten too
cheap... and we think it
recovers.
. . . .
.
|
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
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WIND |
8.15 |
8.59 |
Wind River Systems Inc. (WIND)
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