Tuesday, 01/22/08
Posted 01/22/08,  11:33 pm

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Tuesday, 01/22/08

  Dow Jones: 11,971   - 128
  NASDAQ:   2,292     - 47
  S&P 500:   1,310     - 14
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'In The Long Run'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): General comments about the Fed's action today to cut 3/4 points and about the market outlook from here...


See Opening Segment 2, below...

        
JJC:   Today was the day when the Fed joined us, in our view, that things were deteriorating so rapidly that emergency action was warranted...

Today was the day when the Fed blinked and woke up from its measured, but reckless, stupor!...

Today may be the beginning of the end of this nightmarish market... just the beginning... but we're sure as heck are better off than we were last week... and we sure did much better than they acted in Europe...

.  .  .  .  .

What I would suggest - if you own a bank stock - is to use any lift to be able to avoid the group (and sell)...

So, what is working?...

What do we do now that we have these cuts?...

My take is that we've got to look at some down and out stocks... but not the ones you think...

Now we are still swearing in Cramerica by the notion that you can buy the Procter & Gamble (PG)'s...  buy the Altria (MO*)'s... buy the Coca-Cola (KO)'s...   Those stocks were just tossed out today... tossed out mercilessly... and I think that's wrong...

But I think that what we can also do is look at a group that we have despised here... that we have endlessly criticized... that I think makes a huge amount of sense, when we dust off the playbook, and take a look at where we are... and that's retail...

So tonight, we're going to explore retail, and figure out one that actually works... [See TJX recommendation in Second Segment below]...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     Okay, listen up ladies... (it was Ladies' Night with a live studio audience for this show)... I want people to focus on the longer term... I want to focus on retail and, when we come back, I'll have a great name for you... below.


[See Jim's 2nd Opening Segment stock picks below... ]

 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance


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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

na

na

na

na


na

na

na

na

         

 


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Second Segment
 
 
Final Segment 1 Title: 'Mad Maxx'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)

See TJX's website here.

Yahoo! Finance profile for TJX here.


2nd segment picks below...



On this incredible day where - basically, I'll call it - a crash was averted by the Fed... all the safety stocks were down... all the supermarket stocks... all the stuff that we buy... that we expect will last no matter what... the Procter & Gamble (PG)'s... the Merck (MRK)'s...

A lot of tech was down and that's going to continue tomorrow probably with Apple (AAPL) projecting that things... not what we wanted to hear... particularly, light on iPhone...  light on iPod...

But there was one group that held up the whole day, and kept rallying throughout the day... and that was the retailers...

I mean, you might have seen the retailers up today...  You know why?...

Because, with today's emergency 75 basis point (3/4% rate cut), people are starting to believe that the Fed may actually be for real...  that the Fed might actually know something...  

.  .  .  .  .

The playbook says you buy retail after the Fed gets aggressive, because of the expected increase in year-over-year earnings...  Yeah, the big institutions are definitely thinking that far ahead...  I think you should too.

Now they're thinking about next Christmas, and how it has to be better than last year's, because interest rates will be dramatically lower...   It makes sense... It makes sense, when you put on a 9-month, or 12-month hat...

.  .  .  .  .

You have to obey the playbook, but you also have to acknowledge that we've got a serious economic slowdown, and the Fed can't save everything, so I think we compromise in retail... I always like to split the difference... I never like to make the full-board bet...

I think you need to own a retailer that makes you money in either scenario... a stock that should go up, regardless of whether the Fed has saved the day or not...

And the stock that I've come up with... the stock that I guess I'm going to have to start shopping at... is TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)! 

.  .  .  .  .

That's the company behind TJ Maxx and behind Marshall's...

These guys are the masters of the trade-down retail...  It's blessed because, as a discount retailer, TJX will thrive if things don't turn up but, thanks to its leadership, a big retail turnaround is also a win...

There are plenty of discount retailers that I am not recommending right now...

TJX is different...

Part of it is their business model, and part of it is their brilliant CEO, Carol Meyrowitz, who took over at the top a year ago, and she has just changed this company.  She's another one of these CEOs that I regard as being a transformational one.

But, whatever the cause, nobody can deny that TJX has been able to deliver better than any other retailer in America in the last year...

This is the company that actually reported a rise in December same-store sales, even as almost every other retailer fell apart last month...

If Meyrowitz was making this work before the rate cut, imagine how well she'll do now...

And this company doesn't come to its shareholders empty handed... TJX comes bearing buybacks...

So far, this year, the company bought back $650 million worth of share... it plans to buy another $250 million before the end of the month, and then I think you get another reload...

So, if this stock gets hit, you know they're right in there supporting prices with you.

The stock is trading at only 13x this year's consensus earnings estimate... It's trading at the very low end of its historical range...

You've got a 12% gain if TJX just goes back to average, and a 36% gain if the stock trades back up to the higher end, which you could certainly justify in a market where retail is cannibalizing itself, and TJX is the king... of the cannibals.

The company is going too strong for the stock to stay down here. 

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     Even after this (Fed rate) cut, there aren't too many stocks that work... not many companies that can make their numbers, and those are especially hard to find in retail, which is finally moving... but TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) has proven itself worthy... it's proven that it works... and, in my book, that makes the stock a buy, buy, buy.



.  .  .  .  .


 


Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

TJX

29.71

29.65

The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)

         

 

   
 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>


Netflix, Inc.


Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
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