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Wednesday, 01/23/08
Posted 01/23/08, 11:41
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Wednesday, 01/23/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,270 |
+
298 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,316 |
+ 24 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,338 |
+ 28 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Bottom Dollars'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
TJX Companies, Inc.
(TJX)
CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS*)
J. Crew Group, Inc. (JCG)
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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JJC: What do
you call it when the Dow
loses 320 points the day
after a surprise
75-basis-point rate cut,
and then recovers to close
up 299 points?...
What do you call it?...
What do you call a
600-point swing, after
re-testing yesterday's
lows?...
I know what you call it...
You call it a bottom.
The market came back today
from the abyss... the same
abyss that it toured
yesterday... because all
the elements of a bottom
are in...
Stocks are way too cheap,
no matter how you value
them...
Stocks are dramatically
oversold...
And that always happens at
a bottom...
Most importantly, you can
see the worry... How
is it demonstrated?...
Well, in my play book,
it's demonstrated in not
the Wall Street Journal...
but the New York Times...
You don't see us, above
the fold, on the front
page of the Times... and
we took it all up... at
anything other than a
bottom... The best sign of
all...
. . . .
.
We turned a major down day
into one with a 299-point
gain...
We saw what's known as a
whoosh capitulation
yesterday... something I
call a crescendo
selloff... and it was
verified by today's
action... which will go
down in history as a
successful re-test...
The re-test means we held
yesterday's lows... we got
down there... It's a floor
now... no longer a
ceiling.
That doesn't mean that
everything has bottomed...
But we did come back and
rally hard today, and you
could have made a small
fortune, had you put
together that buy list
that I always urge you to
do...
We got 10% swings, and not
in middle-cap stocks...
You could have bought
AT&T (T)
at $33. It went to
$36... How about
Verizon
(VZ)
down there?... Did
you see
Schlumberger (SLB)?...
I mean, c'mon...
These are lifetime
swings... from bottom to
top today...
And it proves once again
that nobody ever made a
dime by panicking...
and, if you're ready, and
you have your price, and
the supermarket, or the
retailer, throws the sale,
then you could buy it at
your price, and that's how
great, great wealth is
created...
. . . .
.
Now, you need to
know what happens
next... and
what to do next,
as the cycle
changes...
We are at a moment
where the bad
stocks triumph...
It might seem
senseless, or even
unjust, to sell
the companies that
are making so much
money... and
buy everything
that's been
hobbled, wounded
and trashed...
. . . .
.
What
do I think you
should do?...
We go diversified
on this show... we
buy a little of
this, and a little
of that...
But I respect the
herd... and the
herd of big money
says, listen, do
some leadership
change...
Sell the leaders
and buy the
laggards...
With the exception
of agriculture,
which I still
believe can fall
some more, because
it was the last to
start falling, the
idea of selling
the old leadership
down here, even
though the big
institutions say
it's right, and I
include techs,
uh-uh... No,
it seems plain
wrong to me.
It's already had
the correction,
and it's certainly
compressed...
Hold onto through
the cycle now, if
you own those.
They should be
swiftly rising,
given the Fed's
energy, and I
think you'll be
rewarded, if you
buy the shot
leadership right
here...
. . . .
.
But stick with the
playbook, when it comes
to buying the financials
and the retailers...
Pick one, okay... buy
one.
We said they'd bottom
when they were cut in
half... they were
cheap... The Fed
now frantically trying
to catch up, before a
major bank goes bust...
You have to believe that
both these groups will
do much better...
My plan to protect
the mortgage insurers
getting credence at the
highest level...
That certainly makes the
banks less risky...
particularly the ones
that did not cut their
dividends... but,
unbelievably, I think
Citigroup (C*)
has bottomed too...
. . . .
.
As for the retailers, I
have it first hand that
the buying in retail -
all that institutional
money - is not short
covering... It's real!
There's just no stock
for sale down at those
levels that we saw.
The sellers are all
done... another classic
sign of a bottom...
. . . .
.
You have to find a
retailer that you like,
one to buy... Last
night, I suggested
TJX
(TJX)...
Hey, that went up too...
How about this one?...
How about
CVS (CVS*)?
It was down on
same-store sales that I
think will be stronger
next year... I own it
for
my trust...
How about
Costco (COST)?...
How about
Guess? (GES)?...
How about
J. Crew Group (JCG)?...
The heck with the refi's
and the stimulus
package... I like
them all.
The consumer will be
much stronger for next
year's holiday season,
and the big money has to
make that bet right now,
if they're going to
finish their positions
in time for the
holidays.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Don't
turn your back on the
new-found losers, or the
old ones, okay? The
times may be a changin'...
but the stocks remain the
same. Right here,
both the old leadership
and the new look like
buys, now that we've come
through the panic and
bottomed. Yes, I
still expect a pullback
over the next few days.
We've moved up too quickly
but, this time, I expect
you to be ready, if we
come back to where we
started today or, heaven
forbid - what a gift - we
revisit the abyss once
again...
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
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TJX |
31.75 |
31.95 |
TJX Companies, Inc.
(TJX)
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CVS* |
37.09 |
35.90 |
CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS*)
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JCG |
41.69 |
41.90 |
J. Crew Group, Inc. (JCG)
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COST |
68.61 |
68.38 |
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)
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Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
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Final Segment 1
Title: |
'Feeling The Beat'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
DuPont (DD)
See DD's website
here.
Yahoo! Finance profile for DD
here.
IBM (IBM)
See IBM's website
here.
Yahoo! Finance profile for IBM
here.
2nd segment picks
below...
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Even now that I believe
we've bottomed... I
think the bottom is here,
and I think that things
are still pretty crazy...
I don't think we want to
take too much risk... My
feeling with bottoms is
that you re-visit them a
couple of times...
maybe going a little bit
higher each time...
So, we're going to take it
from the perspective that
we are going to have a
pullback, and we also know
that these rotations -
these endless buying and
selling of whole sectors -
keeps sending down the
good with the bad, and
vice versa...
So we're looking for
anomalies...
. . . .
.
Sure, we got more than a
600-point swing today, and
that was great if you
bought at the low.
You could even ring the
register (and sell) at the
high...
That's the best evidence
we need stocks that we can
trust though... stocks we
won't panic and sell, so
we can take advantage of
days like today...
See, we are entering a
period of wild swings...
ask me about... I re-wrote
the show five times
today...
. . . .
.
I smell a bit of a
pullback tomorrow... I say
a bit, because I don't
expect it to be severe...
We might get it
tomorrow... we might get
it Friday...
But you need to get a list
ready...
I sense a lot of you...
people didn't have their
list for the decline...
they didn't know what they
would buy, if the market
came down...
Were you ready? Most
people aren't...
So, if you aren't, and you
don't have a list, let me
give you two solid
suggestions right now...
. . . .
.
The way to do - not
risk-free, but as close to
risk-free investments as
you can - is to buy stocks
that have no earnings
risk... stocks that
have already reported
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