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Wednesday, 01/23/08
Posted 01/23/08, 11:41
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Wednesday, 01/23/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,270 |
+
298 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,316 |
+ 24 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,338 |
+ 28 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Bottom Dollars'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
TJX Companies, Inc.
(TJX)
CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS*)
J. Crew Group, Inc. (JCG)
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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JJC: What do
you call it when the Dow
loses 320 points the day
after a surprise
75-basis-point rate cut,
and then recovers to close
up 299 points?...
What do you call it?...
What do you call a
600-point swing, after
re-testing yesterday's
lows?...
I know what you call it...
You call it a bottom.
The market came back today
from the abyss... the same
abyss that it toured
yesterday... because all
the elements of a bottom
are in...
Stocks are way too cheap,
no matter how you value
them...
Stocks are dramatically
oversold...
And that always happens at
a bottom...
Most importantly, you can
see the worry... How
is it demonstrated?...
Well, in my play book,
it's demonstrated in not
the Wall Street Journal...
but the New York Times...
You don't see us, above
the fold, on the front
page of the Times... and
we took it all up... at
anything other than a
bottom... The best sign of
all...
. . . .
.
We turned a major down day
into one with a 299-point
gain...
We saw what's known as a
whoosh capitulation
yesterday... something I
call a crescendo
selloff... and it was
verified by today's
action... which will go
down in history as a
successful re-test...
The re-test means we held
yesterday's lows... we got
down there... It's a floor
now... no longer a
ceiling.
That doesn't mean that
everything has bottomed...
But we did come back and
rally hard today, and you
could have made a small
fortune, had you put
together that buy list
that I always urge you to
do...
We got 10% swings, and not
in middle-cap stocks...
You could have bought
AT&T (T)
at $33. It went to
$36... How about
Verizon
(VZ)
down there?... Did
you see
Schlumberger (SLB)?...
I mean, c'mon...
These are lifetime
swings... from bottom to
top today...
And it proves once again
that nobody ever made a
dime by panicking...
and, if you're ready, and
you have your price, and
the supermarket, or the
retailer, throws the sale,
then you could buy it at
your price, and that's how
great, great wealth is
created...
. . . .
.
Now, you need to
know what happens
next... and
what to do next,
as the cycle
changes...
We are at a moment
where the bad
stocks triumph...
It might seem
senseless, or even
unjust, to sell
the companies that
are making so much
money... and
buy everything
that's been
hobbled, wounded
and trashed...
. . . .
.
What
do I think you
should do?...
We go diversified
on this show... we
buy a little of
this, and a little
of that...
But I respect the
herd... and the
herd of big money
says, listen, do
some leadership
change...
Sell the leaders
and buy the
laggards...
With the exception
of agriculture,
which I still
believe can fall
some more, because
it was the last to
start falling, the
idea of selling
the old leadership
down here, even
though the big
institutions say
it's right, and I
include techs,
uh-uh... No,
it seems plain
wrong to me.
It's already had
the correction,
and it's certainly
compressed...
Hold onto through
the cycle now, if
you own those.
They should be
swiftly rising,
given the Fed's
energy, and I
think you'll be
rewarded, if you
buy the shot
leadership right
here...
. . . .
.
But stick with the
playbook, when it comes
to buying the financials
and the retailers...
Pick one, okay... buy
one.
We said they'd bottom
when they were cut in
half... they were
cheap... The Fed
now frantically trying
to catch up, before a
major bank goes bust...
You have to believe that
both these groups will
do much better...
My plan to protect
the mortgage insurers
getting credence at the
highest level...
That certainly makes the
banks less risky...
particularly the ones
that did not cut their
dividends... but,
unbelievably, I think
Citigroup (C*)
has bottomed too...
. . . .
.
As for the retailers, I
have it first hand that
the buying in retail -
all that institutional
money - is not short
covering... It's real!
There's just no stock
for sale down at those
levels that we saw.
The sellers are all
done... another classic
sign of a bottom...
. . . .
.
You have to find a
retailer that you like,
one to buy... Last
night, I suggested
TJX
(TJX)...
Hey, that went up too...
How about this one?...
How about
CVS (CVS*)?
It was down on
same-store sales that I
think will be stronger
next year... I own it
for
my trust...
How about
Costco (COST)?...
How about
Guess? (GES)?...
How about
J. Crew Group (JCG)?...
The heck with the refi's
and the stimulus
package... I like
them all.
The consumer will be
much stronger for next
year's holiday season,
and the big money has to
make that bet right now,
if they're going to
finish their positions
in time for the
holidays.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Don't
turn your back on the
new-found losers, or the
old ones, okay? The
times may be a changin'...
but the stocks remain the
same. Right here,
both the old leadership
and the new look like
buys, now that we've come
through the panic and
bottomed. Yes, I
still expect a pullback
over the next few days.
We've moved up too quickly
but, this time, I expect
you to be ready, if we
come back to where we
started today or, heaven
forbid - what a gift - we
revisit the abyss once
again...
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
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TJX |
31.75 |
31.95 |
TJX Companies, Inc.
(TJX)
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CVS* |
37.09 |
35.90 |
CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS*)
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JCG |
41.69 |
41.90 |
J. Crew Group, Inc. (JCG)
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COST |
68.61 |
68.38 |
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)
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Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
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Final Segment 1
Title: |
'Feeling The Beat'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
DuPont (DD)
See DD's website
here.
Yahoo! Finance profile for DD
here.
IBM (IBM)
See IBM's website
here.
Yahoo! Finance profile for IBM
here.
2nd segment picks
below...
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Even now that I believe
we've bottomed... I
think the bottom is here,
and I think that things
are still pretty crazy...
I don't think we want to
take too much risk... My
feeling with bottoms is
that you re-visit them a
couple of times...
maybe going a little bit
higher each time...
So, we're going to take it
from the perspective that
we are going to have a
pullback, and we also know
that these rotations -
these endless buying and
selling of whole sectors -
keeps sending down the
good with the bad, and
vice versa...
So we're looking for
anomalies...
. . . .
.
Sure, we got more than a
600-point swing today, and
that was great if you
bought at the low.
You could even ring the
register (and sell) at the
high...
That's the best evidence
we need stocks that we can
trust though... stocks we
won't panic and sell, so
we can take advantage of
days like today...
See, we are entering a
period of wild swings...
ask me about... I re-wrote
the show five times
today...
. . . .
.
I smell a bit of a
pullback tomorrow... I say
a bit, because I don't
expect it to be severe...
We might get it
tomorrow... we might get
it Friday...
But you need to get a list
ready...
I sense a lot of you...
people didn't have their
list for the decline...
they didn't know what they
would buy, if the market
came down...
Were you ready? Most
people aren't...
So, if you aren't, and you
don't have a list, let me
give you two solid
suggestions right now...
. . . .
.
The way to do - not
risk-free, but as close to
risk-free investments as
you can - is to buy stocks
that have no earnings
risk... stocks that
have already reported
great numbers... the
ones that have already
been tested and proven...
That doesn't mean that we
couldn't get the sector
wrong, but at least we
know we won't get the
stock wrong...
This is a method I used to
use at my hedge fund.
I don't run a hedge fund
anymore...
Sometimes things were so
difficult at that hedge
fund... that I would just
say, would you give me
something I know?... Not
something I don't know?...
You don't want to put
yourself in an
Apple (AAPL)-like
position, where you buy
ahead of the quarter and
then get crushed...
. . . .
.
So I've got two stocks
that cannot crush you like
that... because they've
already pre-announced
sharply higher earnings...
and then, when they
announced the actual
earnings, they beat the
revised guidance again...
I call these twice-blessed
stocks, and they are
serial beaters of the
estimates...
And their names are...
IBM (IBM)
and
DuPont (DD)...
. . . .
.
I think these two stocks
are the safest industrials
to buy right now on any
pullback...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
We need stocks we can rely
on in a crazy,
rollercoaster market.
And I believe that means -
when we get the selloff -
I am expecting we need to
pull the trigger, yes,
on
IBM (IBM)
and
DuPont (DD).
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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DD |
45.36 |
45.53na |
DuPont (DD)
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IBM |
106.10 |
106.38 |
IBM (IBM)
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Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
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Symbol keys: |
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A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
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Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about. |
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Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms": |
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Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back... |
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Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you. |
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Definition: 'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock). |
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Definition: 'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >> |
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Helpful Websites: |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Warren
Buffett's portfolio
of
stocks at:
warren-buffett-portfolio.com |
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Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
StockHomework101.com
This site is coming soon.
Thank you. |
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FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
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made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
Fast Money Recap - Trades
for next day...
Compare these picks to Jim's
comments for the same
stocks. |
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