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Thursday, 01/24/08
Posted 01/25/08, 12:22
am ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Thursday, 01/24/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,378 |
+
108 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,360 |
+ 44 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,352 |
+ 13 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Stimulus Response'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Guess? Inc. (GES)
J. Crew Group (JCG)
Lowe's (LOW)
Liz Claiborne Inc. (LIZ)
Jones Apparel Group Inc. (JNY)
Costco (COST)
TJX (TJX)
Urban Outfitters (URBN)
Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Toll Brothers (TOL)
Thornburg Mortgage Preferred
F (TMA-PF)
Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
(ABK)
Bear Stearns (BSC)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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JJC: Sometimes
we can be too cynical...
There are times when that
attitude of skepticism
pays off, but this isn't
one of them.
If you're selling stocks
right now, I think you're
being too cynical.
It's important to
remember, on a day like
today... that you
can still get what's known
as a virtuous circle...
when things go right.
Prices go up, which then
allows prices to go up,
and up, and up...
Let me explain...
First, this stimulus
package coming from
Washington... Do I
think it's good - $600
bucks a person?...
Not what I would do...
No!... But we're not here
talking about what I would
do. This is not a
political show. It's
about making money.
And this stimulus package
is clearly good for
retail, a group that was
hated until Tuesday...
Remember how retail stocks
work... They trade
off of what's known as
same-store sales...
Do last year's stores beat
this year's?... Do
this store sales beat last
year's?...
A same-store sales number
that beats the previous
year's number means the
stock goes higher, and you
make money if you buy it
beforehand...
I think it's inconceivable
that, once people get $600
bucks in their pocket,
that there will be less
shopping... There
will be more shopping...
and where they will go
will lead to higher
same-store sales over last
year's bad numbers, which
means
Guess? Inc. (GES),
J. Crew (JCG),
and
Lowe's (LOW)
are my three that could go
up rather easily on easy
comparisons (i.e.,
comparing this year's
higher sales to last
year's lower sales)...
People won't look through
it... they'll say, those
are going up...
How about I give you some
new ones?...
How about a newly
rejuvenated
Liz Claiborne (LIZ)?
I mean, that thing is so
low, it scares me... I
think it would be more
expensive to buy Juicy
Couture which is (owned
by) LIZ, than the whole
company...
How about a down and out
Jones Apparel (JNY)
with a dividend that can
be afforded?...
How about three that have
done well, just in case
you don't want to go down
and out?...
Costco (COST)...
TJX (TJX),
and then, look, it never
stopped clicking...
Urban Outfitters (URBN).
You may know it as
Anthropologie or Free
People... I just
know it as the place where
I lay out a lot of money
for my girls...
. . . .
.
I also like the
restaurants off this
rebate...
Now, they're hot and,
thanks to this, I didn't
see it. I'll admit I
didn't see that one
coming. I was too
negative on
Darden (DRI)...
But these could pull back
and, believe me, then you
have to consider buying
them... DRI is the
best of the bunch.
. . . .
.
We also got some news
today out of Washington
that changed the dynamic
for homebuilders... a
group of stocks which
also forecasted good
news before we got it,
right?... and that's
more mortgage money for
Fannie Mae (FNM)
and
Freddie Mac (FRE)
... They raised the
(limit)... Before,
if you bought a house
for more than $417,000
it so-called did not
conform... Now,
apparently... it's
$730,000... Talk
about being too
cynical...
. . . .
.
Just last week... Chuck
Akre stood right here...
He was one of my
(featured) funds from
Stay Mad For Life...
and you know what he
did?... He recommended
Toll Brothers (TOL)...
and I was like chuckling
inside...
He talked about book
value, how it was
undervalued, and I'm
thinking, oh man...
This stock was at $16
bucks, and most of you,
like me, grimaced...
Well, I was wrong...
I was way too skeptical.
With this plan, TOL is
the clear winner,
because its high-end
homes don't conform to
the old rules that allow
Fannie and Freddie to
help... Their
homes are $600,000....
Win, win, win, Bob
Toll!...
Under the new (federal
lending) rules agreed
upon today, huge amounts
of mortgage money is
going to flow Toll Brothers (TOL)'s
way... I believe this
must-sell has now become
a buy on any pullback.
Can you believe it?...
I mean it's up 30% from
when Akre stood right
here...
. . . .
.
The most direct play off
this huge change for
Fannie Mae that hasn't
moved is Thornburg
Mortgage... It
should be a windfall for
them. They move
jumbo loans... I
like the preferred,
Thornburg Mortgage Preferred
F (TMA-PF)...
Try to buy it under
$25... a pure win.
. . . .
.
And, finally, there's
the backdrop of a
bailout in the air for
the bond insurers...
I don't know if we'll
get one, but the fact
that these guys have
gone up big... It
does buy... buy time for
a white knight to come
in... and, tonight, we
got reports that Wilbur
Ross might be coming in
to save
Ambac
(ABK),
and that's one of the
worst! That's got
the banks and the
brokers still on the
bus... Look at how
Bank of America (BAC)
is suddenly able to
raise billions of
dollars at the drop of a
hat! It
keeps that big
dividend... These guys
got to live to play
another day...
. . . .
.
Things have been getting
better for a while, but
something was missing...
And now, I am coming
out, right here, right
now, and tell you to
expect something
imminently...
Write this down... It's
a coalesces...
everything good coming
together at the same
time... We got that
right about now in
1990... the template for
this recovery... the one
that told us to stop
selling the financials
when they were down
50%... That was a
good call though, and I
think it's a good call
now...
I think takeovers are
about to occur...
And I keep thinking
about the changes at...
Bear Stearns (BSC).
Great brand name...
great investment
banking. It has
fallen 82 straight
points from its high.
BSC has great stock
trading, great prime
brokerage, and a real
good fixed income
business, ex
mortgages...
I think BSC has become
too valuable to others
to be independent...
just too valuable...
In short, that's code
for, I think it's going
to be taken over!
I have to believe that
UBS (UBS),
which needs to shore up
investment banking, and
Deutsche Bank (DB),
which needs to own more
prime brokerage... or
Credit Suisse (CS),
which needs better stock
trading... could all bid
for this company.
They could all bid for
this company.
It should make for a
nifty acquisition...
and even - get this - a
possible bidding war...
I do not recommend
takeover stocks on this
show, so maybe I'm doing
something different
here... I think there's
40 points on the line.
This stock acts too well
for me to think that
it's not going away...
There's too much
near-term call option
buying... I could not
believe how many calls
were bought today for me
to think that there's no
fire to go with all that
smoke...
And the call option
buying... Look, we've
seen guys get arrested
for insider trading in
call options...
Probably some more guys
are going to go down...
but I see their
footprints, and I see
and want to follow them
for you...
Here's my called shot...
I think
Bear Stearns (BSC)
will be bought... It
will be bought at a
hefty premium as part of
the consolidation that
the financials need
right now.
. . . .
.
Haven't made a move
in these stocks yet?...
For all but BSC, I think
you'll get your chance.
With Washington helping
us, and with the Fed
looking like it acted
precipitously to avoid a
foreign bank collapse -
that turned out to be no
more than a rogue trader
who lost $7 billion... -
you'll hear all day
tomorrow that the Fed is
done... That's the new
wrap...
I don't want that to be
the case. I don't
think that will be the
case. I have made my
case over and over again
for more cuts...
I've written off this Fed
for a long time...
But, again, this could be
the moment where it stops
paying to be too
cynical...
Perhaps the failure of a
bond insurer, without
swift action or white
knight, will jar the Fed
back to reason... I hate
to trust the Fed to do
anything right...
So maybe wait for a little
pullback on all names,
except
Bear Stearns (BSC)...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
I'd use
weakness to buy something
in retail and something in
banking... maybe it's just
too virtuous out there.
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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See all of tonight's stocks'
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
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GES |
38.08 |
na |
Guess? Inc. (GES)
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JCG |
43.44 |
na |
J. Crew Group (JCG)
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LOW |
25.41 |
na |
Lowe's (LOW)
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JNY |
15.49 |
na |
Jones Apparel Group Inc. (JNY)
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COST |
67.15 |
na |
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)
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TJX |
31.04 |
na |
TJX (TJX)
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URBN |
27.16 |
na |
Urban Outfitters (URBN)
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DRI |
27.46 |
na |
Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI)
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MSFT |
33.25 |
na |
Microsoft (MSFT)
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TOL |
21.72 |
na |
Toll Brothers (TOL)
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TMA-PF |
24.10 |
na |
Thornburg Mortgage Preferred
F (TMA-PF)
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ABK |
11.33 |
na |
Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
(ABK)
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BSC |
87.74 |
na |
Bear Stearns (BSC)
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LIZ |
21.16 |
na |
Liz Claiborne Inc. (LIZ)
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Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
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Final Segment
2 Title: |
'On The
Line'....
'Keeping It
Rail'
CEO Interview
Michael J. Ward,
CEO |
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. . . .
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Featured
Stock(s): |
CSX Corp. (CSX) |
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. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|

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CSX |
46.83 |
na |
CEO Interview
Michael J. Ward,
CEO
CSX Corp.
(CSX)
Jim's comments
BEFORE interview:
Tonight, I put
on my crusader
for social
justice hat...
or at least,
shareholder
justice hat...
We're talking
about one of the
most shameful
and stupid
things I've seen
on Wall Street,
since starting
this show...
believe me,
that's really
saying
something...
Right now, not
one, but two
activist
investor
outfits, TCI and
3-G, are
agitating to
remove the
single best CEO
in the railroad
business,
Michael Ward, of
CSX.
This guy is
fabulous... he's
delivered the
best performance
in the sector
and, as far as
I'm concerned,
he has made CSX
into the best
company in the
happy oligopoly
that is the
railroad
business...
With the Fed now
eager to ease
after getting
caught with its
pants down...
the rails are
the place to be,
and you'd think
investors would
want to support
the best CEO in
the business, in
order to make
some money...
not boo him.
But, instead,
these bozos at
TCI and 3-G want
to get Ward
fired...
And come the
shareholder
meeting on May
7th,
unbelievably...
in a total
travesty...
they may
succeed...
. . . .
.
Jim's comments AFTER
interview:
Listen everyone...
if you own shares in
this thing... and
you index funds that
own it... use a
brain!... Vote
in favor of this
man! I rarely
come out in favor of
a CEO. This
guy's good!
Vote against these
guys [Jim pointed to
his
Wall of Shame], for heaven's sake!
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Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
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Symbol keys: |
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A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
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Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about. |
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Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms": |
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Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back... |
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Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you. |
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Definition: 'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock). |
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Definition: 'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >> |
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Helpful Websites: |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Warren
Buffett's portfolio
of
stocks at:
warren-buffett-portfolio.com |
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Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
StockHomework101.com
This site is coming soon.
Thank you. |
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FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
Fast Money Recap - Trades
for next day...
Compare these picks to Jim's
comments for the same
stocks. |
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© 2005-2007 MadMoneyRecap.com ■
Important disclaimer: This site is
not affiliated with Mr. James
Cramer, and is not associated with
any television networks or
broadcasts. Please note that all
thumbs up or thumbs down
indicators are not always clearly
indicated on the show and are
interpreted by us as accurately as
possible. Some comments have been
edited for brevity and clarity,
and extraneous material omitted. Please rely on watching
the show yourself, doing
your own homework,
and reading the text of the
comments to draw your own
conclusions. Also, data presented
on this site should not be used to
make investment decisions and
accuracy, although attempted,
cannot be guaranteed. Please
consult with your own financial
advisor for professional advice. |
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