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Wednesday, 01/30/08
Posted 01/31/08, 1:17
am ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Wednesday, 01/30/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,442 |
- 37 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,349 |
- 9 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,355 |
- 6 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Fed On Target'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
MBIA (MBI)
Ambac
(ABK)
Radian (RDN)
PMI (PMI)
MGIC (MTG)
Altria (MO*)
AT&T (T)
Verizon
(VZ)
Costco (COST)
Urban Outfitters (URBN)
Sears (SHLD*)
Bear Stearns (BSC)
Goldman Sachs (GS*)
Wachovia (WB)
Washington Mutual (WM)
Countrywide
(CFC)
Citigroup (C*)
Ford (F)
General Motors
(GM)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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We got a gift today...
The market anticipated a
big cut, so we got it, and
then it sold off...
As someone who's traded
for almost 30 years, I can
tell you that's just very
typical of the short-term
thinking that colors the
market these days...
Don't fall prey to it...
Thanks to these cuts, the
future is looking much
brighter than the past...
I am being so un-cynical
here, because there's no
reason to be cynical.
So don't think that a
decline in the averages,
after the cut, means you
have to be bearish...
Right now, I believe it is
incredibly imperative for
you to be more bullish!...
Post-rate-cut... because
this is where and when you
make the money...
. . . .
.
I am so confident that,
right now, I feel like
purchasing perhaps the
most loathed and toxic
investment around... I
feel like purchasing an
asset, now synonymous with
the destruction of
value...
With this rate cut, I
think I'm going to go buy
house... You heard me...
A house! One of
those poisonous financial
instruments with living
rooms and bedrooms and
bathrooms... kitchens!...
10 days ago, before the
cuts, the very idea of
buying a house... buying
domestic real estate was
simply unthinkable!...
This was the malignant
growth at the heart of our
financial system...
the heart of darkness that
was going to bring
everything down...
and now, I think, you
could probably find some
darn good buys among
houses... I mean it.
I'm not lying...
Why?...
Because, beginning next
week, Dr. Bernanke (Fed
Chairman) has become Dr.
Guioutine!... The
guioutine of interest
rates... and, with this
additional 50-point basis
cut, I think he has made a
turnaround in housing
inevitable!... Buy,
buy, buy!...
. . . .
.
Today, I believe the Fed
averted national systemic
bank failure... This
cut takes a situation
where major banks were
going to go under...
And maybe still, some
mortgage insurers do... I
believe that...
But this was a situation
that would have been truly
catastrophic and, you know
what?... We're
taking the catastrophe
right off the table...
Now, banks can make enough
money lending, because the
Fed has lowered the rate
at which banks have to pay
out interest to their
depositors, which
increases their profits...
. . . .
.
These companies that
insure the derivatives...
Again, MBIA (MBI),
Ambac
(ABK),
Radian (RDN)...
I fret about the personal
mortgage insurers,
PMI (PMI)
and
MGIC (MTG)...
Now... There will be a
step back if they fail,
but you must be ready to
buy, not run, from that
retreat, because they are
all that stands in the way
of a full-blown housing
recovery that no one in
this country is expecting
or predicting...
perhaps, with the
exception of Chad Dreier,
the unbelievable CEO from
Ryland (RYL),
who got it right the whole
way...
This is part of the Fed's
mandate to avert financial
Armageddon...
They did their jobs, even
though there are a lot of
people out there, still
urging them to go in the
other direction, and fight
inflation by destroying
the economy...
. . . .
.
It's not the Fed's job to
choose stocks, but make no
mistake here... I believe
this cut has given you an
opportunity to make a
great deal of money...
Let me tell you how...
First, stocks with high
dividends... Even better
today than yesterday...
Think
Altria (MO*),
which just announced a
major split, and a major
dividend boost today...
63% payout goes to 70%
payout on average...
How about
AT&T (T)
and
Verizon
(VZ)?...
Much heaped upon...
Frankly, I think their
yields are so
attractive... you've got
to swap out of cash and
into that... The
rate Bernanke cut... the
cash rate... it's just not
compelling enough...
Those stocks should go
higher...
. . . .
.
Second, you know the rate
cuts mean the retailers go
higher... I've been saying
that for a long time...
Costco (COST),
Urban Outfitters (URBN)...
You know something?... I
don't even care... Just
get one. I mean,
even my friend, Eddie
Lampert's stock at
Sears (SHLD*)
has been going up... of
course, only because they
don't have Eddie Lampert
to kick around anymore...
. . . .
.
You know the bankers and
the brokers from
Bear Stearns (BSC)
and
Goldman Sachs (GS*)...
They should all go
higher...
A few weeks ago, I would
have said that the
strength we had today,
before we sold off, and
the coming rally I'm
predicting, would be a
chance to sell the
banks... especially the
ones truly hobbled by
sub-prime... And
there you've got to think
Washington Mutual (WM),
Countrywide
(CFC),
Citigroup (C*),
Wachovia (WB),
Downey Financial
(DSL),
BankUnited (BKUNA),
FirstFed (FED)...
Now, you can buy
Wachovia (WB)
on weakness... That,
by the way, is the best of
the troubled lot...
and I'm thinking that
Washington Mutual (WM)
can hang on, until it gets
a bid... And
Bank of America (BAC),
with that big preferred
issuance, can now handle
the
Countrywide
(CFC)
acquisition...
And
Citigroup (C*)?...
Well, hey, listen...
It muddles around...
. . . .
.
Third, you can buy
industrials... You can buy
- get this, first time
ever - automakers... I've
been recommending
General Motors 7.5
Preferred (GMS)...
I now think you can buy
Ford (F)
and
General Motors
(GM)
common stock... Go
ahead. They work
now, because financial
catastrophe has been taken
off the table...
New recommendations, and
we know the economy should
be better in 10-12 months
than it is right now...
Anything that used to be
in a bear market is now in
a full bull-market mode...
Housing, banks, brokers,
retail, the industrials...
automakers. Buy them
on weakness...
. . . .
.
In 1990, when we got here,
the bears doubled down on
their shorts... kind of
like the market tanked
today, after the quick
Fed-induced rally...
They talked about shooting
fish in a barrel... the
banks... Well,
they were the ones that
got shot. You never
heard from them again...
A lot of them were tepid
bulls... panicked today,
and sold what they had.
But a few of us said, down
50% - two weeks ago - that
the worst was over for the
financials... and
the Fed would now see the
error of their ways,
because that's what
history dictated...
They followed history.
They did it. Be glad
the market came down...
It's an opportunity.
It was simply reacting to
day after day of
anticipation of the
cuts...
Don't run away from
stocks, now that we have
to run to them...
. . . .
.
Business is real good away
from housing and retail
and auto...
You'll hear a lot of
people talking and say,
why did they have to cut?
Business is real good away
from housing and retail
and auto...
Because housing was so
bad, they had to cut!
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
I
believe the Fed has given
you a once-in-a-decade
opportunity to make big
money right now...
frankly, in stocks... and,
in six months, in homes.
Do not be scared away...
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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MBI |
13.96 |
12.09 |
MBIA (MBI)
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ABK |
10.85 |
9.86 |
Ambac
(ABK)
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RDN |
8.42 |
8.28 |
Radian (RDN)
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PMI |
9.11 |
8.41 |
PMI (PMI)
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MTG |
17.15 |
16.47 |
MGIC (MTG)
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MO* |
76.50 |
76.08 |
Altria (MO*)
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T |
37.35 |
36.81 |
AT&T (T)
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VZ |
38.24 |
37.75 |
Verizon
(VZ)
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COST |
66.23 |
65.63 |
Costco (COST)
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URBN |
28.24 |
27.64 |
Urban Outfitters (URBN)
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SHLD* |
105.07 |
103.78 |
Sears (SHLD*)
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BSC |
88.26 |
87.14 |
Bear Stearns (BSC)
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GS* |
198.55 |
196.45 |
Goldman Sachs (GS*)
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WB |
36.67 |
36.00 |
Wachovia (WB)
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WM |
18.65 |
18.16 |
Washington Mutual (WM)
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CFC |
6.47 |
6.40 |
Countrywide
(CFC)
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C* |
27.88 |
27.00 |
Citigroup (C*)
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F |
6.75 |
6.68 |
Ford (F)
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GM |
27.46 |
26.90 |
General Motors
(GM)
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Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
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Final Segment
2 Title: |
'On The
Line'....
'Seal Of
Approval'...
CEO Interview
Rick Goings, CEO |
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. . . .
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Featured
Stock(s): |
Tupperware Brands
Corporation (TUP)
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. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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TUP |
34.55 |
na |
CEO Interview
Rick Goings, CEO
Tupperware
Brands
Corporation
(TUP)
Jim's comments
BEFORE interview:
You know why I
can
trash some bad
CEOs with
impunity?...
Because, when
I've got good
ones... I bring
them on... I
praise them...
What's a good
one?... A
guy that makes
you money....
What's a bad
one?... A guy
that loses you
money... A
simple litmus
test.
If you're a
stock junky like
me, or simply
someone with a
healthy dose of
greed, on this
show we're fine
with that,
frankly, Gordon
Gecko outlook...
An earnings
report can be a
thing of
beauty... more
moving than the
best works of
art...
particularly
when you're
trying to assess
what a CEO has
brought to the
party.
That's why I'm
saying, move
over
Michelangelo...
forget about the
Impressionists...
I've got
something that
blows away all
of them...
This is
Tupperware (TUP)...
The beauty of
TUP's latest
masterpiece...
it's all in the
numbers.
This company has
been a slow and
steady winner
for us, ever
since
October 4th of
2006.
That's when we
got behind it.
We recommended
it at $19.73,
and have stayed
long it the
whole way, and
it's up a sweet
75% since...
Today, TUP
stopped being so
slow...
It came out with
a blowout
quarter that
catapulted the
stock up more
than 5 points,
or almost 18% on
a down day...
And, even after
that move, the
stock still
sports a
respectable 2.5%
yield...
Cramerica's kind
of story...
Earnings came in
at 93 cents a
share, 13 more
than the
consensus
estimate of 80
cents...
I'm pronouncing
this the biggest
beat... the
biggest beating
of estimates
since this year
began...
To top it all
off, TUP raised
guidance for the
first quarter,
and all of
2008...
TUP is a great
reminder that,
just because the
Fed does this or
does that...
that we must
always keep our
eyes open...
always be on the
lookout for
opportunity...
As it turns out,
this company
actually makes
money off of
higher
unemployment -
counter
cyclical... a
great play to
have in a
recession,
because it's
easier to
recruit sales
reps...
This is what
really does it
for me... Here's
what he (CEO)
said... He
was telling
investors that
they could
relax...
that, if there
was bad news,
they'd know it
already... so it
was safe to buy
the stock ahead
of earnings, and
make a ton of
money today.
How many CEOs
are this
shareholder-friendly?...
Only a handful
of guys are this
bankable, which
is why I am
thrilled to
welcome Rick
Goings, the
chairman and CEO
of TUP, to Mad
Money...
. . . .
.
Jim's comments AFTER
interview:
Rick Goings, you're
a hero for our show.
We take apart guys
who lose us money.
We've got to
celebrate the
winners, and you're
one of the winners.
Thank you for
everything you've
done, and for all
the people who
bought TUP off my
recommendation,
because I believed
in you.
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Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
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Symbol keys: |
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A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
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Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about. |
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Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms": |
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Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back... |
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Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you. |
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Definition: 'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock). |
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Definition: 'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >> |
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Helpful Websites: |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Warren
Buffett's portfolio
of
stocks at:
warren-buffett-portfolio.com |
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Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
StockHomework101.com
This site is coming soon.
Thank you. |
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FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
Fast Money Recap - Trades
for next day...
Compare these picks to Jim's
comments for the same
stocks. |
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© 2005-2007 MadMoneyRecap.com ■
Important disclaimer: This site is
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Cramer, and is not associated with
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thumbs up or thumbs down
indicators are not always clearly
indicated on the show and are
interpreted by us as accurately as
possible. Some comments have been
edited for brevity and clarity,
and extraneous material omitted. Please rely on watching
the show yourself, doing
your own homework,
and reading the text of the
comments to draw your own
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on this site should not be used to
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accuracy, although attempted,
cannot be guaranteed. Please
consult with your own financial
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