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Monday, 02/04/08
Posted 02/04/08, 11:21
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Monday, 02/04/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,635 |
-
108 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,382 |
- 30 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,380 |
- 14 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Mirror, Mirror'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
No specific stock picks.
See all comments below...
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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JJC: Do you feel
like the market's sending
you mixed signals?...
Let's take just the
research this morning...
Today, Merrill Lynch
downgrades the banks.
UBS downgrades the credit
card companies...
Both because of the
recession...
At the same time, Dick
Bove - a good financial
analyst, who'd been very
bearish - upgrades all the
brokers... because the Fed
has woken up, and the
business environment has
gotten so much better...
that even these short-term
rates don't mean that
much. In other
words, the Fed is going to
save us...
. . . .
.
I always like to use
cultural icons on the
show... ones that are
cross-generational... that
everyone can latch onto...
That's why I settled on
something truly
timeless... Snow White and
the Seven Dwarfs!...
All of the opinions on the
market remind me of the
Seven Dwarfs...
which each represent a
different group of
investors, who have
different views about the
market, and different
views about the economy...
These dwarfs don't whistle
while they work, but they
do get down and dirty,
trying to get their
message out... and
convince others... in
order to make things go
their way...
. . . .
.
Dopey represents
the guys who genuinely
believe that the
fundamentals are sound...
The Dopeys out there are
the ones that truly think
all is well... These
dopes will buy any stock
that blows in their
window.
Sleepy stands in
for the guys who just woke
up to the fact that we're
in a recession. The
Fed belongs firmly in this
camp, right?...
Sleepy represents the
buyers who are behind and
are only now liking
recession stocks...
Doc, of course, is
clearly Professor
Bernanke...
intellectual and clueless,
with faux rigor...
who can't see the forest
through the trees...
Grumpy symbolizes
the camp that believes
nothing can save the
economy... The
Grumpys are all-out bears
who are the short sellers
and naysayers who hate all
stocks now...
These guys hate
everything, including
stocks...
Then, there's Happy!...
Yeah, Happy... The camp
that believes everything
will work out, because the
Fed is now on the case...
Happy thinks the cuts will
lead to mortgage
refinances, re-fi madness,
more money, fewer
foreclosures, and the $600
iPod in every pocket...
Happy represents those
people who think the Fed
has come to the rescue...
. . . .
.
These are the camps...
and, whenever anyone says
anything about stocks,
you've got to consider...
are they from the Grumpy
camp, the Happy camp, the
Sleepy camp, or the Dopey
camp... Or,
obviously, are they
adherents to Doc?...
. . . .
.
But there's more to this
market than these groups
fighting each other...
There's also what they're
fighting over...
They're fighting over
Bashfuls...
These are consumers who
won't come out and play...
they won't spend on
retail, restaurants or
autos...
The Grumpys think the
Bashfuls will stay home,
but those in the Happy
camp think they'll come
out and spend... So, Happy
and Grumpy are dueling
over Bashfuls...
They're also arguing about
the Sneezy's...
These are the guys who've
been blown out...
They're too sick.
They're not working.
They lost their jobs on
Friday, on that number...
If too many Sneezy's lose
their jobs, then this camp
(i.e., the Happys) gets
destroyed...
And, finally, we have to
ask ourselves...
Mirror, mirror on my
wall... what's coming?...
The Wicked Witch... a
long, cold recession?...
Or Snow White?... A
short recession and a
recovery?...
My mirror says, Snow
White.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
I'm
betting with Happy!... I'm
saying that Doc and Sleepy
have woken up, and I think
that these guys have led
to what will ultimately
be... this (Snow White)...
and this (The Wicked Witch)... is a
loser.
Consider buying
industrials, financials
and homebuilders in this
market.
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Hair Apparent'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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JJC:
Why did XOM go down, after
that gigantic upside
surprise?... What
was the matter with that
quarter?... Why
didn't the stock open up
$6?...
This company, XOM,
reported an astounding
record quarterly profit of
$2.16 a share!... 21 cents
higher than the consensus
estimate of $1.95...
But the Street didn't like
it... not one bit...
To understand why this
happened, you need to
understand a little
something about hair...
That's right, hair...
XOM's quarter had way too
much of it, and on Wall
Street, hair's a bad
thing... On Wall
Street, bald is truly
beautiful...
Hair has another meaning
on the Street... nothing
that has anything to do
with the stuff that's not
normally on my head...
When a company reports a
quarter that's full of
great looking numbers, but
the quarter isn't clean...
it's full of one-time
gains, or it's not
sustainable...
I am telling you that XOM
had hair on it, meaning
not everything was
perfect... XOM is a
great example of what a
quarter with too much hair
looks like...
After the Lightning Round,
I've got a stock that can
show us why it's so great
to be hairless...
Now, when you compare a
company like XOM, where I
say hairy earnings...
hairy production growth...
hairy, weak (reserves)
replacement... to a
company like Cramer fave,
Apache Corp. (APA),
with its 9-12% production
growth, and great reserve
replacement... not
to mention
the incredibly-bullish
interview their CEO,
Steven Ferris, gave on
this show... then I see no
reason to own the XOM's of
the world. Their
just too darn hairy!...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Don't
be bamboozled by hairy
earnings. Look at
what those numbers are
made of, so you can tell
the difference between a
disappointing hairy beat
like
Exxon (XOM)'s...
and a stock with a real
win, which I'll give you
by the way, as an example,
after the Lightning
Round...
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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|
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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XOM |
85.44 |
84.11 |
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
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APA |
98.48 |
96.93 |
Apache Corp. (APA)
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Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
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Symbol keys: |
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A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
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Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
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