Monday, 02/04/08
Posted 02/04/08,  11:21 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Monday, 02/04/08

  Dow Jones: 12,635   - 108
  NASDAQ:   2,382     - 30
  S&P 500:   1,380     - 14
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Mirror, Mirror'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): No specific stock picks.  See all comments below...


See Opening Segment 2, below...

        
JJC:  Do you feel like the market's sending you mixed signals?...

Let's take just the research this morning...  Today, Merrill Lynch downgrades the banks.  UBS downgrades the credit card companies...  Both because of the recession...

At the same time, Dick Bove - a good financial analyst, who'd been very bearish - upgrades all the brokers... because the Fed has woken up, and the business environment has gotten so much better... that even these short-term rates don't mean that much.  In other words, the Fed is going to save us...

.  .  .  .  .

I always like to use cultural icons on the show... ones that are cross-generational... that everyone can latch onto...

That's why I settled on something truly timeless... Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs!...

All of the opinions on the market remind me of the Seven Dwarfs...  which each represent a different group of investors, who have different views about the market, and different views about the economy...

These dwarfs don't whistle while they work, but they do get down and dirty, trying to get their message out... and convince others... in order to make things go their way...  

.  .  .  .  .

Dopey represents the guys who genuinely believe that the fundamentals are sound... The Dopeys out there are the ones that truly think all is well...  These dopes will buy any stock that blows in their window.

Sleepy stands in for the guys who just woke up to the fact that we're in a recession.  The Fed belongs firmly in this camp, right?...  Sleepy represents the buyers who are behind and are only now liking recession stocks...

Doc, of course, is clearly Professor Bernanke...  intellectual and clueless, with faux rigor...  who can't see the forest through the trees...

Grumpy symbolizes the camp that believes nothing can save the economy...  The Grumpys are all-out bears who are the short sellers and naysayers who hate all stocks now...   These guys hate everything, including stocks...

Then, there's Happy!...  Yeah, Happy... The camp that believes everything will work out, because the Fed is now on the case...   Happy thinks the cuts will lead to mortgage refinances, re-fi madness, more money, fewer foreclosures, and the $600 iPod in every pocket...   Happy represents those people who think the Fed has come to the rescue...   

.  .  .  .  .

These are the camps... and, whenever anyone says anything about stocks, you've got to consider... are they from the Grumpy camp, the Happy camp, the Sleepy camp, or the Dopey camp...  Or, obviously, are they adherents to Doc?...

.  .  .  .  .

But there's more to this market than these groups fighting each other... There's also what they're fighting over...

They're fighting over Bashfuls...  These are consumers who won't come out and play... they won't spend on retail, restaurants or autos...

The Grumpys think the Bashfuls will stay home, but those in the Happy camp think they'll come out and spend... So, Happy and Grumpy are dueling over Bashfuls...

They're also arguing about the Sneezy's...  These are the guys who've been blown out...  They're too sick.  They're not working.  They lost their jobs on Friday, on that number...

If too many Sneezy's lose their jobs, then this camp (i.e., the Happys) gets destroyed...

And, finally, we have to ask ourselves...  Mirror, mirror on my wall... what's coming?...  The Wicked Witch... a long, cold recession?...

Or Snow White?...  A short recession and a recovery?...

My mirror says, Snow White.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     I'm betting with Happy!... I'm saying that Doc and Sleepy have woken up, and I think that these guys have led to what will ultimately be... this (Snow White)... and this (The Wicked Witch)... is a loser.   Consider buying industrials, financials and homebuilders in this market.


[See Jim's 2nd Opening Segment stock picks below... ]

 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance


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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


       
         


       
         

 


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Second Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Hair Apparent'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)


See Opening Segment 2, below...

        

JJC:   Why did XOM go down, after that gigantic upside surprise?...  What was the matter with that quarter?...  Why didn't the stock open up $6?...

This company, XOM, reported an astounding record quarterly profit of $2.16 a share!... 21 cents higher than the consensus estimate of $1.95...  But the Street didn't like it... not one bit...

To understand why this happened, you need to understand a little something about hair... That's right, hair...

XOM's quarter had way too much of it, and on Wall Street, hair's a bad thing...  On Wall Street, bald is truly beautiful...

Hair has another meaning on the Street... nothing that has anything to do with the stuff that's not normally on my head...

When a company reports a quarter that's full of great looking numbers, but the quarter isn't clean... it's full of one-time gains, or it's not sustainable...

I am telling you that XOM had hair on it, meaning not everything was perfect...  XOM is a great example of what a quarter with too much hair looks like...

.  .  .  .  .

After the Lightning Round, I've got a stock that can show us why it's so great to be hairless...

Now, when you compare a company like XOM, where I say hairy earnings... hairy production growth... hairy, weak (reserves) replacement...  to a company like Cramer fave, Apache Corp. (APA), with its 9-12% production growth, and great reserve replacement...  not to mention the incredibly-bullish interview their CEO, Steven Ferris, gave on this show... then I see no reason to own the XOM's of the world.  Their just too darn hairy!...  

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     Don't be bamboozled by hairy earnings.  Look at what those numbers are made of, so you can tell the difference between a disappointing hairy beat like Exxon (XOM)'s... and a stock with a real win, which I'll give you by the way, as an example, after the Lightning Round... 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


XOM

85.44

84.11

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)

APA

98.48

96.93

Apache Corp. (APA)

 

   
 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>


Netflix, Inc.


Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own