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Friday, 02/15/08
Posted 02/16/08, 08:03
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Friday, 02/15/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,348 |
-
28 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,321 |
- 10 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,349 |
+ 1 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'On The Line'
State of New York
Governor
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Interview with Gov. Eliot
Spitzer
State of New York
No fresh stock picks.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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JJC:
We've got a kind of
bizarre situation in
America right now... one
that the governor of New
York has to try to solve,
because he regulates the
issue. It's where a
group of companies that no
one knows about, other
than a couple of
investment firms that
issue bonds, and tons of
municipalities that need
bonds, have turned out to
be the linchpin for the
whole market... just a
couple of companies... and
the linchpin is
breaking...
These are firms - notably
Ambac
(ABK)
and MBIA (MBI)
- that we have hated,
hated, hated on this show
for a year now...
They're facing billions of
dollars in losses...
losses that would normally
cause their companies to
be rated just atrociously
by the ratings agencies...
especially because they
could go belly up.
Despite the protestations
of the companies
themselves repeatedly on
our network, these
companies would seem to
need more capital than
they could possibly raise
- at least privately - in
order to meet future
obligations from the junk
they insured...
The governor of New York
has said this situation
has to be solved, and that
it could cause a crisis
beyond what we already
have...
And I want to know what
he's thinking.
That's why I am thrilled
to have the governor of
New York, Eliot Spitzer,
back on the show...
. . . .
.
Jim's comments AFTER
interview:
We've
got to solve this problem.
At least he's trying.
I don't know many others
who are...
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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NEW RESOURCE!
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Opening Segment 2
Title: |
'Flu's Clues'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Quidel Corp. (QDEL)
See QDEL's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
QDEL
here.
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JJC: For
Speculative Friday, I've
got a stock that should be
great for everyone...
but especially for those,
who are "L"
sympathizers... I'm
talking about those of you
who think we're not going
to see a recovery from the
recession... merely a
decline, and then a
stabilization...
[See Jim's description of
the types of recoveries
(i.e., the "L", the "U",
and the "V" recoveries)
and those that believe in
those respective camps,
from the 2/8/08 show,
here... ]
. . . .
.
The "L"
makes
you
pretty
bearish
about
most
stocks
but, if
you see
an "L"
shaped
recovery,
then you
should
be
pretty
darn
bullish
about...
Quidel
Corp.
(QDEL).
QDEL -
which
I'm both
going to
recommend
and use
as a
primer
on how
to
speculate
wisely...
something
I
recommend
as an
investment
strategy
for all
in
Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing In An
Insane World... a book
you
should
not
forget,
simply
because
Stay Mad For Life,
my
newest
guide to
money
has
recovered
back to
the #9
on the
New York
Times
bestseller
list...
. . . .
.
This is
a
diagnostic
name,
and you
know I
believe
that
diagnostics
is one
of the
best
long-term
stories
out
there...
of
course,
because,
if you
diagnose
things
early,
it costs
the
system
much
less
money...
not to
mention
what I
think is
one of
the most
bulletproof
kind of
stocks,
because
we just
love
diagnostics,
because
it helps
us get
better
faster...
Diagnostics
lowers
medical
costs...
a huge
long-term
trend,
and
makes
people
healthy,
so
everybody
loves
it...
Twice-blessed
thesis...
and you
know we
love
those,
as we
saw in
agriculture,
and as
we saw
lately
in
coal...
. . . .
.
Right
now, for
a great
trade...
a trade
this
time...
QDEL's
got
something
even
better
going
for
it...
The
company
makes
diagnostic
tests
that
detect
the flu,
strep,
and also
pregnancy...
These
are the
tests
you get
at the
doctor's
office -
nothing
over the
counter
- and,
in flu,
QDEL is
the
absolute
dominant
player,
with 70%
of the
market
for
point of
care flu
tests.
They're
at
40-50%
with
strep
and
pregnancy,
which
gives
them an
incredibly-strong
presence
there
too...
. . . .
.
So
what's
the
edge?...
I mean,
what do
I have
for
you?...
You
can't
just buy
something
because
I tell
you it's
okay...
The edge
is
clear!
The flu
season
seemed
pretty
mild
just a
few
weeks
ago.
It
picked
up a
little
in
January...
Remember
how it
drove
down all
those
drugstore
stocks?...
Because
it
didn't
happen?...
Well,
you know
what?
Now it
has
quietly
roared
back,
without
creating
enough
headlines
yet -
yet,
mind you
- to
really
send
QDEL
much
higher...
. . . .
.
Right
now,
nearly
every
state is
reporting
widespread
flu
activity,
and that
is
really
something
to
celebrate
if
you're
rooting
for the
flu in a
deranged
kind of
way...
Since
flu
tests
make up
40% of
their
sales,
this
means
QDEL
should
have a
pretty
good
first
quarter...
. . . .
.
Now, I
want to
introduce
you to
an
important
idea
that
explains
how QDEL
could
make you
a lot of
money
off
this...
The
strong
flu
season
is what
I call,
"not in
the
numbers"...
meaning
no one's
estimating
it -
from
Wall
Street -
no one's
estimating
it will
be this
good...
or bad,
depending
on your
perspective...
We say
"good"
because
this
show is
about
making
money,
not
about
healing
people...
The
phrase
that's
important
here
about
QDEL is
that the
flu
season
is "not
in the
numbers"...
You see,
we're
always
looking
for
situations
on Mad
Money,
where we
can get
an edge
on the
Street...
and know
what the
earnings
will
be...
better
than the
analysts,
with all
their
models
and
algorithms...
. . . .
.
Anytime
you find
something
not in
the
numbers,
you're
ahead of
the
curve...
you have
an edge
that the
Street
doesn't.
And,
unless
you turn
out to
be
horribly
wrong -
and we
won't
be,
because
of this
late flu
season -
you
should
make
money,
as the
earnings
go up,
even as
the
price-to-earnings
multiple
(i.e.,
P/E)
stays
the
same...
Remember
that
little
equation
I taught
you?...
(M)ultiple
x
(E)arnings
=
(P)rice
of the
stock
that you
pay...
So, if
the
earnings
go
higher,
then the
stock
price
goes
higher...
Remember
that
equation...
. . . .
.
QDEL is
one of
those
great
situations
where we
found
something
big -
the
now-active
flu
season -
and it's
not in
the
numbers...
On a
nuts-and-bolts
level, I
think
the
trade is
going to
work
something
like
this...
QDEL
reports
next
Thursday,
the
21st.
It's
after
the
bell.
I think
you
should
buy
before
the
earnings
come
out.
That's
dicey,
but it
is
Speculation
Friday...
Why?...
Because
I don't
think it
matters
if they
make or
miss the
quarter.
I mean,
look,
they're
reporting
the
fourth
quarter
of
2007...
We
expect
them to
tell us
good
things
about
the flu
in the
first
quarter
of
2008...
on their
conference
call.
And the
analysts
will
reiterate
that,
because
that's
what
they
do...
they
like to
parrot...
. . . .
.
The
stock
should
rise,
and
you'll
already
be an
owner.
That's
the
power of
"not in
the
numbers"
information...
. . . .
.
Now,
QDEL has
more
going
for it
than
that.
It
wouldn't
be
enough
just to
be "not
in the
numbers"...
It's a
great
investment...
They
partnered
with
bioMerieux
(announcing
a global
strategic
alliance
in rapid
diagnostics
- see
QDEL's
news
release
here).
The
company
gets to
be the
sole
distributor
outside
the
U.S.,
Japan,
and
Scandinavia
of
QDEL's
QuickVue
products
- the
brand
name of
most of
its
successful
tests.
This
starts
in May
of 2008.
It's a
great
way for
QDEL to
become a
much
bigger
ROW-er...
meaning
rest-of-worlder...
a
company
that's
not just
held
hostage
to the
U.S.,
because
it can
move its
product
overseas...
. . . .
.
Now, for
the
basic
checklist
that I
always
want you
to run
through
for any
stock,
even a
speculation
stock...
Balance
sheet -
how was
it?
It's
clean,
it's
pristine...
$35
million
in cash
on the
balance
sheet,
versus
$8
million
in cap
leases...
Buyback?
Check!
A $21
million
buyback
authorization
that
they can
use to
boost
the
stock on
a rainy
day.
And,
boy,
we've
had a
lot of
those
lately...
Valuation?
Check!
This is
actually
huge.
We have
finally
found a
cheap
diagnostics
stock...
not
something
that
happens
often...
QDEL
trades
at 27x
earnings...
but,
bear
with me,
it's got
a
long-term
growth
rate, so
it's not
so bad.
That's
some
strong
non-cyclical
growth
that
will be
there
whenever
you need
it,
especially
with
Uncle
Ben
(Bernanke,
Fed
chief)
not
cutting
the way
we'd
like him
to...
. . . .
.
Since
QDEL's
multiple
is just
1.2x its
long-term
growth
rate, by
my
standards,
it's
fabulously
cheap.
Especially
when we
know the
earnings
are
about to
get much
better,
thanks
to a flu
season
that's
not in
the
numbers...
What a
great
opportunity...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
When
you get the flu, don't
feel bad... Own some
Quidel Corp. (QDEL)
and profit off your own
misery.
. . . .
.
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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QDEL |
15.97 |
na |
Quidel Corp. (QDEL)
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Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >> |
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Symbol keys: |
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A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >> |
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself. |
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Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself. |
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about. |
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Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms": |
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Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back... |
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Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you. |
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Definition: 'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock). |
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Definition: 'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point. |
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See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >> |
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Helpful Websites: |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com |
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See the stocks currently
known to be in Warren
Buffett's portfolio
of
stocks at:
warren-buffett-portfolio.com |
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Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
StockHomework101.com
This site is coming soon.
Thank you. |
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FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.
Fast Money Recap - Trades
for next day...
Compare these picks to Jim's
comments for the same
stocks. |
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© 2005-2007 MadMoneyRecap.com ■
Important disclaimer: This site is
not affiliated with Mr. James
Cramer, and is not associated with
any television networks or
broadcasts. Please note that all
thumbs up or thumbs down
indicators are not always clearly
indicated on the show and are
interpreted by us as accurately as
possible. Some comments have been
edited for brevity and clarity,
and extraneous material omitted. Please rely on watching
the show yourself, doing
your own homework,
and reading the text of the
comments to draw your own
conclusions. Also, data presented
on this site should not be used to
make investment decisions and
accuracy, although attempted,
cannot be guaranteed. Please
consult with your own financial
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