Thursday, 02/28/08
Posted 02/28/08,  11:07 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 02/28/08

  Dow Jones: 12,582   - 112
  NASDAQ:   2,331     - 22
  S&P 500:   1,367     - 12
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: CEO Interview
Bob Lane, CEO

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Deere (DE)


See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


Jim's comments BEFORE the interview:      Okay... this market's awful, all right?  I said it...  Why is it awful?...  Because your home or, more accurately, the decline of your home in price, is killing almost every sector out there, except two... energy and food.

If you own shares in a company that drills for, or owns, oil, you know what you've got... you've got a winner.  If you own shares in a company that makes more grain grow, to counter a developing worldwide food shortage, you have a winner...

Now, how about if you have one that does both?...  Buy, buy, buy!  How about if you have one that helps create more energy... that gives farmers a chance to be wildcatters...  and develop renewable sources of energy?   How about if you have a company that can cash in on the president's mandate - democrats love it too, as we know from Hillary Clinton last night - ethanol?...   That's right, mandated food price inflation...

There are only a handful.  We call them the Fab Five on this show... Mosaic (MOS), Potash (POT), and Agrium (AGU) on fertilizer...  Monsanto (MON) on the seed side...   And I think, best of all, Deere (DE), which I have to say may be the single best manufacturer in America... not of farm equipment, but of all equipment, selling into the single best market in the world... agriculture.

DE blew the numbers away - pin action on farms - when it reported a few months ago...  It is up 149% since we first recommended it in 2005...  And anyone who's watched the show knows that we've recommended it dozens of times.

Some guys are my heroes.  I talk about a lot of bums on the show... You know why I can get away with that?  Because I honor heroes... people who have made great products and have made you money...

And, tonight, I have the honor to have the chairman, CEO and president of this great company, Deere (DE)... Bob Lane, on Mad Money...  Mr. Lane, welcome to Cramerica... 

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Jim's comments AFTER the interview:      All right, guys, this stock... anytime it's below $100, you have got my blessing to buy it.   Deere (DE) has been a winner since we started this show, and it will be a winner long after this show.  Own an ag (riculture) stock...  Don't own one?  Own DE!


[See Jim's 2nd Opening Segment stock picks below... ]

 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance


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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

DE

86.97

86.85

Deere (DE)

       

 

 


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Second Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'International Calls'

'From Russia With Love'

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Featured Stock(s): Mobile Telesystems (MBT)

See MBT's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for MBT here.



See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

        

JJC:   Today, we heard that Sprint Nextel (S) - the one American wireless player that I just love to loathe - sell, sell, sell! - lost 683,000 subscribers who pay monthly, for a net loss of 108,000 subscribers in their last quarter...  Man, are they bad...

There are two lessons here...

First...  This is why I've been recommending buying AT&T (T) and
Verizon (VZ*) which, by the way, are up huge, since I said you should buy them off of S, as the beautiful wrinkle-free face of repacious capitalism is creating a slaphappy duopoly between T and VZ*...

And now, not only has S blinked, but it's also gotten a... cattle-pressure gun right in the eye!

.  .  .  .  .

But the second lesson is what we're about now... and what we've been talking about all week... the developing world telco stocks.   So much better than being hostage to our country...

The rise of wireless phones is one of the greatest long-term secular growth trends around.

But, in the West, a lot of that trend is already played out.  T and VZ* can grow, but they can only do so by poaching subscribers from Sprint (and each other)...  And, while you have to admit that S totally has it coming to them, for being the most-horribly mismanaged firms in any industry...  T and VZ* still aren't totally in an enviable position...

I mean, T, with the on-fire iPhone...  and VZ*, because of its great network in FiOS... but soon, in the end, those guys are going to have to end up killing each other... we know that...

.  .  .  .  .

That's why, this week, we've been looking for cellular service providers in what used to be called the second and third worlds - the former commie countries, and the countries that are even poorer, respectively.

These are places that haven't been saturated with cell phones yet.  They're places where an aspiring wireless carrier still has room to grow...

And that's why, tonight, I'm taking you to Russia with love... and to the other former members of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics... also known as the evil empire...

The Russian wireless market is en fuego right now...  Think the Russian steel industry two years into that Stalin first five-year plan...

Let's just say that I think it's a great time to be in a wireless phone provider in Russia... 

.  .  .  .  .

My two favorites...  Mobile Telesystems (MBT) and Vimpel-Communications (VIP).

Now, I think they're both great buys...  but only one can be the winner...

.  .  .  .  .

While the American wireless industry is busy cannibalizing itself for customers, our Russian counterparts are growing at a sizzling pace...  Industry revenues grew 33% year-over-year... 44% traffic growth...

This year, the Russians are expected to grow revenues at a 30% clip in dollar terms...  and they should grow traffic at 32%.

.  .  .  .  .

There are three reasons why both MBT and VIP are triple buys...

1.  Prepaid to post-paid...  Right now, 90% of Russian subscribers use prepaid accounts.  The least profitable for both MBT and VIP.  But, as they make more money, they're moving to the kind of subscriptions we have, post-paid plans... That's the kind that we have...  They encourage increased usage and allow companies like MBT and VIP to charge higher prices.

2.  Wireline to wireless...  Russians spend about 450-500 minutes a month talking on fixed lines.  But they're getting with the future...  The concensus is that a lot of these minutes will migrate to mobile phones the way wireless has been crushing wireline in the rest of the developing world.  The Russians have been building cellular networks out...   Translation... more profit for MBT and VIP.

3.  The C.I.S....    The Commonwealth of Independent States...  These are the countries that used to be part of the U.S.S.R. and are now independent.  Both MBT and VIP are now using their geographic and cultural ties... to easily expand into these countries.  Wireless expansion into the C.I.S. is only at 45%.  MBT and VIP have huge opportunities.

.  .  .  .  .

That's why we want one of these two stocks, because we respect the two hallowed traditions in Russia...  vodka-inspired alcoholism and looting... but we prefer not to be too entangled with them, so we're trying to pick the best...

So, the question remains, who gets Cramer's endorsement, and who gets Cramer's icepick in the head, like Trotsky...

Both MBT and VIP are great, but I frankly want you to own Mobile Telesystems (MBT).

.  .  .  .  .

It's the market leader with 33% market share in Russia.  VIP only has 30%.  And, in Moscow, MBT's market share is even higher.  They've got 45% of the Moscow market, compared to 35% for VIP.  You want that Moscow market, believe me...

But mostly I like it, because it's safer.  VIP is still digesting an acquistion with a lot of potential to make mistakes, while MBT has been making smaller, tuck-in acquisitions, much harder to screw up.

MBT has a better yield at 1.8%...  0.7% for VIP...  Sure VIP has got more growth, but MBT is the better value...   13x earnings on 17% long-term growth.  VIP has an 18x multiple and 26% growth.  A little too dicey for me...

If you want to roll the dice, you go for VIP...

In this kind of market, you want to play it safe though, with a higher-yielding stock that has a lower multiple... 

Now, of course, the Russian market is off huge here.  It's down nearly 300 points from its high.  It's a good time to get in.  That's why we're featuring MBT, which is 22 points off its high. 

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      The Russian wireless market, dominated by two titans, Vimpel-Communications (VIP) and Mobile Telesystems (MBT), both work, but I'll give you MBT for safety, the dividend and lower multiple.  So forget about the U.S.A....  It's time to get back with the U.S.S.R.

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL