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Thursday, 02/28/08
Posted 02/28/08, 11:07
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Thursday, 02/28/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,582 |
-
112 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,331 |
-
22 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,367 |
- 12 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
CEO Interview
Bob Lane, CEO
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Deere (DE)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
Jim's comments BEFORE the
interview:
Okay... this market's
awful, all right? I
said it... Why is it
awful?... Because
your home or, more
accurately, the decline of
your home in price, is
killing almost every
sector out there, except
two... energy and food.
If you own shares in a
company that drills for,
or owns, oil, you know
what you've got... you've
got a winner. If you
own shares in a company
that makes more grain
grow, to counter a
developing worldwide food
shortage, you have a
winner...
Now, how about if you have
one that does both?...
Buy, buy, buy! How
about if you have one that
helps create more
energy... that gives
farmers a chance to be
wildcatters... and
develop renewable sources
of energy? How
about if you have a
company that can cash in
on the president's mandate
- democrats love it too,
as we know from Hillary
Clinton last night -
ethanol?...
That's right, mandated
food price inflation...
There are only a handful.
We call them the Fab Five
on this show...
Mosaic (MOS),
Potash (POT),
and
Agrium (AGU)
on fertilizer...
Monsanto (MON)
on the seed side...
And I think, best of all,
Deere (DE),
which I have to say may be
the single best
manufacturer in America...
not of farm equipment, but
of all equipment, selling
into the single best
market in the world...
agriculture.
DE blew the numbers away -
pin action on farms -
when it reported a few
months ago... It is
up 149% since we first
recommended it in 2005...
And anyone who's watched
the show knows that we've
recommended it dozens of
times.
Some guys are my heroes.
I talk about a lot of bums
on the show... You know
why I can get away with
that? Because I
honor heroes... people who
have made great products
and have made you money...
And, tonight, I have the
honor to have the
chairman, CEO and
president of this great
company, Deere (DE)...
Bob Lane, on Mad Money...
Mr. Lane, welcome to
Cramerica...
. . . .
.
Jim's comments AFTER the
interview:
All right, guys, this
stock... anytime it's
below $100, you have got
my blessing to buy it.
Deere (DE)
has been a winner since we
started this show, and it
will be a winner long
after this show. Own
an ag (riculture) stock...
Don't own one? Own
DE!
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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This holiday's
hottest tech
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Most popular
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(click any book to see at
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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DE |
86.97 |
86.85 |
Deere (DE) |
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Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
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Opening Segment 2
Title: |
'International
Calls'
'From Russia With
Love' |
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Mobile Telesystems (MBT)
See MBT's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
MBT
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC: Today, we
heard that
Sprint Nextel (S)
- the one American
wireless player that I
just love to loathe -
sell, sell, sell! - lost
683,000 subscribers who
pay monthly, for a net
loss of 108,000
subscribers in their last
quarter... Man, are
they bad...
There are two lessons
here...
First... This is why
I've been recommending
buying
AT&T (T)
and
Verizon
(VZ*)
which, by the way, are up
huge, since I said you
should buy them off of S,
as the beautiful
wrinkle-free face of
repacious capitalism is
creating a slaphappy
duopoly between T and
VZ*...
And now, not only has S
blinked, but it's also
gotten a...
cattle-pressure gun right
in the eye!
. . . .
.
But the second lesson is
what we're about now...
and what we've been
talking about all week...
the developing world telco
stocks. So
much better than being
hostage to our country...
The rise of wireless
phones is one of the
greatest long-term secular
growth trends around.
But, in the West, a lot of
that trend is already
played out. T and
VZ* can grow, but they can
only do so by poaching
subscribers from Sprint
(and each other)...
And, while you have to
admit that S totally has
it coming to them, for
being the most-horribly
mismanaged firms in any
industry... T and
VZ* still aren't totally
in an enviable position...
I mean, T, with the
on-fire
iPhone... and VZ*, because of
its great network in
FiOS... but soon, in the
end, those guys are going
to have to end up killing
each other... we know
that...
. . . .
.
That's why, this week,
we've been looking for
cellular service providers
in what used to be called
the second and third
worlds - the former commie
countries, and the
countries that are even
poorer, respectively.
These are places that
haven't been saturated
with cell phones yet.
They're places where an
aspiring wireless carrier
still has room to grow...
And that's why, tonight,
I'm taking you to Russia
with love... and to the
other former members of
the Union of Soviet
Socialist Republics...
also known as the evil
empire...
The Russian wireless
market is
en fuego right now...
Think the Russian steel
industry two years into
that Stalin first
five-year plan...
Let's just say that I
think it's a great time to
be in a wireless phone
provider in Russia...
. . . .
.
My two favorites...
Mobile Telesystems (MBT)
and
Vimpel-Communications (VIP).
Now, I think they're both
great buys... but
only one can be the
winner...
. . . .
.
While the American
wireless industry is busy
cannibalizing itself for
customers, our Russian
counterparts are growing
at a sizzling pace...
Industry revenues grew 33%
year-over-year... 44%
traffic growth...
This year, the Russians
are expected to grow
revenues at a 30% clip in
dollar terms... and
they should grow traffic
at 32%.
. . . .
.
There are three reasons
why both MBT and VIP are
triple buys...
1. Prepaid to
post-paid...
Right now, 90% of Russian
subscribers use prepaid
accounts. The least
profitable for both MBT
and VIP. But, as
they make more money,
they're moving to the kind
of subscriptions we have,
post-paid plans... That's
the kind that we have...
They encourage increased
usage and allow companies
like MBT and VIP to charge
higher prices.
2. Wireline to
wireless...
Russians spend about
450-500 minutes a month
talking on fixed lines.
But they're getting with
the future... The
concensus is that a lot of
these minutes will migrate
to mobile phones the way
wireless has been crushing
wireline in the rest of
the developing world.
The Russians have been
building cellular networks
out...
Translation... more profit
for MBT and VIP.
3. The C.I.S....
The Commonwealth of
Independent States...
These are the countries
that used to be part of
the U.S.S.R. and are now
independent. Both
MBT and VIP are now using
their geographic and
cultural ties... to easily
expand into these
countries. Wireless
expansion into the C.I.S.
is only at 45%. MBT
and VIP have huge
opportunities.
. . . .
.
That's why we want one of
these two stocks, because
we respect the two
hallowed traditions in
Russia...
vodka-inspired alcoholism
and looting... but we
prefer not to be too
entangled with them, so
we're trying to pick the
best...
So, the question remains,
who gets Cramer's
endorsement, and who gets
Cramer's icepick in the
head, like Trotsky...
Both MBT and VIP are
great, but I frankly want
you to own
Mobile Telesystems (MBT).
. . . .
.
It's the market leader
with 33% market share in
Russia. VIP only has
30%. And, in Moscow,
MBT's market share is even
higher. They've got
45% of the Moscow market,
compared to 35% for VIP.
You want that Moscow
market, believe me...
But mostly I like it,
because it's safer.
VIP is still digesting an
acquistion with a lot of
potential to make
mistakes, while MBT has
been making smaller,
tuck-in acquisitions, much
harder to screw up.
MBT has a better yield at
1.8%... 0.7% for
VIP... Sure VIP has
got more growth, but MBT
is the better value...
13x earnings on 17%
long-term growth.
VIP has an 18x multiple
and 26% growth. A
little too dicey for me...
If you want to roll the
dice, you go for VIP...
In this kind of market,
you want to play it safe
though, with a
higher-yielding stock that
has a lower multiple...
Now, of course, the
Russian market is off huge
here. It's down
nearly 300 points from its
high. It's a good
time to get in.
That's why we're featuring
MBT, which is 22 points
off its high.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
The Russian wireless
market, dominated by two
titans,
Vimpel-Communications (VIP)
and
Mobile Telesystems (MBT),
both work, but I'll give
you MBT for safety, the
dividend and lower
multiple. So forget
about the U.S.A....
It's time to get back with
the U.S.S.R.
. . . .
.
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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|
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
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