Friday, 04/11/08
Posted 04/13/08,  08:41 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Friday, 04/11/08

  Dow Jones: 12,325   - 256
  NASDAQ:   2,290    - 61
  S&P 500:   1,332    - 27
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'From Russia With Love'

'Quality Programming'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Central European Media Enterprises (CETV)

See CETV's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for CETV here.



See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


JJC:    What happened today... the 257-point decline... It's exactly why I made this "Warsaw Pact Week"...

It's a day when some of you might feel like giving up... just quitting, because it's so hard...

I've given you four stocks so far, that are plays on the five-year-plan style of growth...
See Monday's pick here...
See Tuesday's pick here...
See Wednesday's pick here...
See Thursday's pick here...

Coming out of the countries coming out of the former Eastern Bloc... Russia is not America... Our woes really have very little, if anything, to do with them at all. They have not bought our mortgages...

It's all part of a broader trend on this show to talk about international stocks, so that you have less exposure to the U.S., avoiding the pain caused by our recessionary economy, and our Federal Reserve whom we said last year maybe should be a little more worried.

This has been, and will continue to be, a constant theme on this show, because I believe you need as much as 20% of your portfolio... to be in overseas stocks... because our country, at times, has become the pitiful, helpless giant that Cramer's fave cold warrior, (former President) Dick Nixon, hinted at some 35 years ago...

Today, I've got a company that blankets Eastern Europe... at least as well as the Red Army in 1945... CETV, a TV network in the Czech Republic, where it has 43% market share... Slovakia, it has 40% share... Romania... with 25% share... Ukraine, with 18% share... and then two countries that used to be communist... but owe no allegiance to Joe Stalin... Slovenia, where CETV has a 42% audience share, and Croatia, where it has 20%.

It really dominates in a lot of these countries...

We've actually recommended this stock way before now... November 29th of 2005... See complete comments here >>...

It's up 61%... That gives us Russian Boulevard cred...

The countries where CETV operates are all growing well right now, which means that advertisers are thrilled to buy ad space... The Czech Republic growing at 4.6%... The Ukraine at 5.4%... Slovenia, a little lagging, at 3.4%... Romania, 6%... Slovakia going crazy at 7.3%.... Croatia at GDP, 4.7%...

What are we growing? Zero, right!...

These are economies, unlike this one, are where you want to be running a television company, plus, these markets are very under-penetrated, leaving CETV with what looks like, to me, a lot of room to run. You have to understand that these are countries chock full of ideal consumers... people that are getting richer... and are just beginning to buy Jimmy Chou shoes... They're not hiding under their beds, eating saltines to save Rubles, like we are in the U.S....

This company is also buying out their minority investors in the Ukraine, where it owns 60% of its networks. The CEO has said that EBITDA... from Ukraine would almost double, if the network were wholly owned... Wow!... I mean, that's the potential breadbasket of profits...

This is the exact same thing they did in Slovakia, where revenue grew 48% last quarter... This is the antidote to all the TV and radio and media companies that go down everyday... This is where you've got to own media...

Plus, there's CETV's internet division. It isn't making money yet, but it's got websites in Croatia and Romania, and they're leaders in those countries... Paid users for the whole division are 200% year over year... This could be very big if CETV gets better at monetizing it.

Hey, opportunity... The stock's off (i.e., down in price) big... They did a convertible bond deal. I wouldn't worry about it one bit, because it converts well above where the stock is now.

Valuation... way too low. 16.8x expected earnings... 31% growth rate!... I call a cheap when it has good fundamentals and the multiple is below the growth rate. I mean, this is so far below the growth rate, I can't really believe it...

31% growth is just outstanding in a low-growth world. I'm jumping up and down on this one... like a newly-released prisoner from the Gulag... where reception is just awful...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Get into Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) while it's cheap, because I believe this is one of the best ways to play the embrace of capitalism in the former Eastern Bloc, as well as parts of the former Yugoslavia...


[See Jim's 2nd Opening Segment stock picks below... ]

 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

CETV

86.34

na

Central European Media Enterprises (CETV)


 

       

 


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Second Segment
 
 
Final Segment 1 Title: 'Pipeline To Profits'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ)

See CNQ's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for CNQ here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

 

JJC:    We've been playing catch-up all week, as in stocks that need to catch up to the rest of their sector... This week, for the same reason I've been doing all these Soviet stocks, they protect you from down-257-point days...

We had one (today)... I'm trying to give you protection and give you offense...

Ketchup stocks, which have gone up a lot less than their peers, and seem to be a lot less over-extended, shouldn't get hit as hard, or stay down as long, during a big decline like today's...

That's why I gave you...
See Monday's Ketchup Stock here...
See Tuesday's Ketchup Stock here...
See Wednesday's Ketchup Stock here...
See Thursday's Ketchup Stock here...

Today, my Ketchup Stock is Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ)...

That's the second-largest oil and gas producer in Canada, with a lot oil sands exposure... CNQ is cheaper than the rest of its cohort, because of a new project that's gone bad... the Horizon Project... It's been hit with delays and cost overruns... It's a real bummer... But it's a huge project that could produce as many as 110,000 of barrels per day - that's a lot - when it comes online in the third quarter...

In 2007, CNQ's total production was 609,000 barrels per day... The project's going to be huge for them. The folks at Lehman Brothers values it as much as $29.00 to $36.00 per share... I mean, that's huge, right?...

This project coming online should be reason enough for CNQ to play catch up, but it's got other things going for it too. CNQ has the second-largest land position in Western Canada, and especially large positions in Montenay (?) and Musqua (?) shales... which they haven't even started developing yet... These are gigantic pieces of land.

But high natural gas prices might change that, as EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) recently indicated that these regions contain... are you ready?... 6 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas reserves... And TriStone Capital has estimated that CNQ's position in shale has around 3.6 trillion cubic feet of unrisked reserve potential...

Now, remember, this is the year of Cramer's year of natural gas... and, with so many American natural gas companies now drilling, it's possible CNQ won't be far behind...

I think that CNQ, if it gets it right - and it very well could get it right - could be the next Anadarko Petroleum (APC) or Apache Corp. (APA), although that's a tall order, as APA is drilling like mad in Canada, and looks like it could make tons of Loonies while, right now, CNQ is simply driving investors loonie...

I think CNQ is about to get out of the Loony Bin, and into the Loonie bank...

Also, because CNQ has a lot of heavy oil production, it's benefiting from the narrowing price between heavy and light oil; there's a differential always... As oil goes higher, it takes those with marginal holdings - like CNQ - and takes them up more than the ones that have a lot of what I consider to be my favorite drink... Light Sweet Crude...

CNQ is trading at 13.1x earnings. The average multiple for the group is 13.9x... so it's obviously trading at a big discount to its peers...

I think CNQ deserves a premium, especially once that Horizon Project starts producing in that 3rd quarter... That's why the stock will play catch up...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ) has been a laggard, because it's big Horizon Project has held it back. Now that the company says it's on schedule to come online in the 3rd quarter, I think CNQ deserves catch up, and deserves to become a leader...

 

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


CNQ

76.65

na

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ)

         

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio