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Monday, 04/21/08
Posted 04/21/08, 10:47
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Monday, 04/21/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,825 |
- 24 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,408 |
+ 5 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,388 |
- 2 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'The Green Party'
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Featured Stock(s): |
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)
Shaw Group Inc. (SGR)
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA)
MEMC Electronic Materials
(WFR)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC: A
year ago, we had our first
"Green Week" on Mad
Money... I picked eight
environmentally-friendly
stocks for my green
portfolio... And now, the
results are in... Green
has been
pants-ing the rest of the market...
The tide seems to be
turning green! The stocks
in Mad Money's green week
portfolio are up... are
you ready skee-daddy?...
an average of 76.8%,
compared to a negative
5.5% for the S&P 500. Who
says money doesn't grow on
trees?!
Green up!...
The stocks I picked were
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR),
Foster Wheeler (FWLT*),
Shaw Group Inc. (SGR),
MEMC Electronic Materials
(WFR),
Tetra Tech Inc. (TTEK),
Fuel-Tech, Inc. (FTEK),
and OM Group Inc. (OMG)...
I know that FSLR's up
huge... But, even without
it, the Green Portfolio is
up 35%!... and that's
still a lot to brag
about...
Tonight, I want to review
the stocks in the
portfolio, to go over what
worked and what worked
less... and I want to tell
you which of these I think
you should dump... and
which ones I think are
worth hanging onto going
forward, or even buying
more of!
First, I want to go
through the big winners...
Then, after the break...
this is called a tease...
we'll try to learn from
the ones that only
slightly outperformed the
S&P 500.
But, before I start going
through the stocks, I want
to explain why green has
worked so well... and why
I expect it to keep
working...
A year ago, in our first
green week, we correctly
anticipated that oil would
be up huge to $125...
still our price target...
and it's higher oil prices
that have driven up
everything related to
clean energy... from solar
to clean coal... This is
the trend behind the
trend... and I don't think
it's going away... It's
what drove me back to the
ag stocks... and I've got
a new ag play to talk
about after the
Lightning Round...
Back to my green stocks...
The biggest winner out of
the bunch has been
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)...
It's up 367%, since I made
it a green week stock on
April 17th last year...
FSLR is the solar play
that doesn't need
subsidies to work... and
will be the standard in
this country, no matter
which presidential
candidate wins... as it
already is the standard in
Germany... I think the new
president brings in FSLR
fast. I also can't stress
enough how much (Gov.
Arnold Swartzennager) over
in California, has gotten
behind solar, and how the
utilities in California
always lead the rest of
the country.
FSLR was purely a play on
the need for energy that
pays back. Sure, right
now, an FSLR panel in year
1 is more costly than oil
or gas, and certainly more
than wind, but these
fossil fuels are getting
more and more expensive...
and are in short supply...
Remember, this is the most
cost-effective solar play
out there, because it
doesn't use silicon, and
that makes it much cheaper
for FSLR to make its
panels... to put them
right on the roofs of
commercial operations and
integrate them straight
into the grid... This is
practical solar... the
stuff that works when it's
nasty out... not the other
kind, where you kind of
need 98 degrees in the
shade for it to work...
We remain in conviction
mode for FSLR... and I
think that any big time
conglomerate that wants to
be in energy, should just
swallow the dilution, and
buy them!... I think this
is to solar what
Intel (INTC)
was to semiconductors...
and I expect it to repeat
the incredible performance
from Intel from 1988 to
1998...
The next winner was Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)...
a stock that remains in
my charitable trust...
FWLT, up 97%... This was
and is my favorite
infrastructure play. We
liked it for Green Week,
as a play on clean coal...
Now, if you think a
democrat is going to win
the White House, then I
think you can bet that
FWLT will go up because
clean coal, while
seemingly oxymoronic, is
FWLT's great environmental
contribution. Also, if the
price of oil stays high,
or continues higher, that
means FWLT, which builds
petrochemical plants and
refineries - all of which
are in short supply -
should work even higher.
This one if way off its
high... and, unlike FSLR,
which could use a little
10-point pullback... I
think you should be buying
FWLT right here. I think
FWLT knows how to make
green nuclear coal and
coal liquification
plants...
We had another
infrastructure stock in
the Green Portfolio... It
was called Shaw Group Inc. (SGR)...
up 79% since last year.
This one was a play on
nuclear, almost
extensively... and
exclusively...
It's winning energy and
power projects all over
the world, just like
FWLT... but nuclear is the
heart and soul of this
one, especially as nuclear
power plant projects in
the U.S. are just starting
to get off the ground. If
I were you, I'd definitely
stick with SGR, although
the Street didn't like the
quarter...
We picked BorgWarner
Inc. (BWA)
as a clean emissions
play... but I think you
should dump this one from
the portfolio. It's too
tied to auto production...
going nowhere.
Another one in the
portfolio we want to
jettison is MEMC Electronic Materials
(WFR)...
up 21.7% since last year.
It worked because of high
silicon prices. I don't
think it's sustainable. I
believe silicon's the
wrong technology for
solar. The company has
continually had execution
warnings... I say (ring
the register)... Faded and
fatigued... that's how I
regard WFR...
. . . .
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The Bottom Line!:
The Mad Money Green Week
portfolio worked! Money
did grow on trees, despite
those classes that you
took! Stick with
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)...
stick with Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)
and Shaw Group Inc. (SGR).
But it's time... yes, hit
the eject button on
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA)
and MEMC Electronic Materials
(WFR).
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at
Amazon.com) |
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
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FSLR |
291.85 |
na |
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
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FWLT* |
67.09 |
na |
Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)
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SGR |
55.02 |
na |
Shaw Group Inc. (SGR)
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BWA |
47.67 |
na |
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA)
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WFR |
75.96 |
na |
MEMC Electronic Materials
(WFR)
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Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
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Final Segment 1
Title: |
'Green Giants' |
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Tetra Tech Inc.
(TTEK)
Fuel-Tech, Inc. (FTEK)
OM Group Inc. (OMG)
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC:
We're going over the
stocks from last year's
Green Portfolio... We've
been through the winners.
Now, I want to talk about
the losers...
Every stock in the Mad
Money Green Portfolio beat
the S&P 500. But three of
them dramatically
underperformed the rest of
the group...
And that was Tetra Tech
Inc. (TTEK),
Fuel-Tech, Inc. (FTEK)
and OM Group Inc. (OMG).
I want to tell you where I
think we went wrong on
these three, and if
they're keepers or
losers...
First, let's talk about
Tetra Tech Inc. (TTEK)...
Up just 1.6%, this is a
water play that serves the
complete water cycle. It
gets a lot of its
contracts from the Feds...
I hate it when people say
they were early on a
stock, and not wrong. I'm
going to cop to both... I
got this one wrong,
okay?... But, right now,
it's actually becoming
right... Why?...
Water will be the next
global shortage, even
though all the talk right
now is about the oil and
gas complex... When it
comes to water, TTEK is
the largest player in the
sector. Multi-billion
dollar opportunities
coming up... There are
coastal engineering and
flood protection projects
coming... $20 billion...
Raw sewage management...
another $20 billion... and
military base closure
deals.
Just last month, TTEK
announced its largest
commercial - meaning
non-governmental -
contract... $100 million.
They also recently bought
a wind energy company,
making TTEK even greener.
That offers entry into
another $20 billion
opportunity... Wind, by
the way, is the
cheapest... That's the
cheapest per unit of
energy you're using.
Last year, TTEK was wrong.
But now it's entering the
environmental sweet spot,
and I'd be a buyer.
If I were a major
conglomerate, wishing to
get into wind power and
water construction, I
would bid for TTEK for a
lot more than it's selling
for now...
The next so-called loser
in the Green Portfolio is
Fuel-Tech, Inc. (FTEK),
which is up a mere 8.9%...
very popular as a
Lightning Round stock...
Here's the thing... FTEK
had an incredible run in
the two months after my
Green Day
recommendation... so I put
it in the Sell Block on
June 21st of last year
with a 72% gain. The stock
dropped sharply since
then.
And you know what I think
with FTEK?... At last,
after this big decline,
time to reload...
This is one of those
high-flying stocks that
swings wildly up and
down... and I think there
are good reasons to think
it'll go higher from
here...
FTEK is a clean coal play
that also increases the
efficiency of coal plants.
They recently reported
breakout fourth quarter
numbers, but they issued
conservative guidance that
made people sad...
I think these guys are
playing the UPOD game...
underpromise...
overdeliver...
Coal has been working, but
I think FTEK will do
especially well, if a
democrat gets into the
White House... But it
needs to be clean, and
FTEK does the cleaning.
There's a great
legislative catalyst here
too... Clear Air
Interstate Rule
Regulations are set
commence in 2009, and I
think utilities will be
seeking out pollution
control technologies like
the kind FTEK makes right
now...
The company is also only
beginning to tap foreign
markets... It's got the
foot in the door into
India and into China. From
what I can see, it's just
a question of execution
now, when it comes to how
much money they can make
in Asia.
Shockingly, I think there
is a growing perception
among the Chinese
Communists that dying from
bad air generated from
dirty coal plants may
actually be bad... at
least for business...
Back to FTEK... There's
been a lot of recent
insider buying... The
Chairman bought 25,000
shares at $17.90 on March
7th... about six points
below the current price...
The Deputy Chairman bought
20,000 shares a few cents
lower on March 10th.
I love insider buying...
You only buy for one
reason... because you
think it's going up. Stick
with it.
Finally... OM Group
Inc. (OMG)...
up 11.3%. This was an
emissions play that is
heavily dependent on
cobalt prices. We thought
cobalt prices were going
to go up... but then they
went down like the
Titanic... Going into
August, we were down 26%
on OMG, when the stock
bottomed. I think we
should be happy that
they've recovered so much
from here. Take profits on
OMG.
OMG makes the chemicals
used in hybrid car
batteries and, since the
auto business stinks out
loud, I don't think you
want that exposure, or
exposure to the cobalt
market.
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