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Thursday, 04/24/08
Posted 04/24/08, 09:21
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Thursday, 04/24/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
12,848 |
+ 85 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,428 |
+ 23 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,388 |
+ 8 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Second Wind'
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN)
See TRN's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for TRN
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC: It's
Green Week on Mad Money,
where we look for stocks
that can make money
cleaning up the
environment, cutting back
on global warming... We've
been through solar and
nuclear and natural gas
and biofuels... companies
with stocks, by the way,
have been completely
killed this week... truly
annihilated badly... which
is a terrific opportunity
to get started. We don't
want to buy them when
they're ramping. We want
to buy them when they're
getting killed, and they
are being hammered beyond
belief, which is why you
should be doing something,
like... buy, buy, buy!
These are all anti-carbon
emissions stocks... or
lower emissions stocks.
And we are buyers into any
short-term weakness,
because these are
multi-year trends that
should be strengthened
with a democrat, but they
could still be meaningful
with a republican in the
White House...
So, what's next?...
What's the next green
energy source we want to
highlight?...
(music playing)... The
answer my friend is
blowing in the wind... The
answer is blowing in the
wind...
That's right! It's wind
power day! We are big
believers in wind power,
because it's so cheap. But
the difficult thing about
wind... is that it's so
impractical for much of
our great country. I mean,
think about it... building
a windmill in New Jersey
for example?...
The thing is, in places
where wind is practical,
it's fabulous! And,
although we're not in The
Netherlands, there is a
whole lot of this country
that's just a windy
wasteland... where wind
can work.
Wind is far cheaper than
oil, than natural gas,
than coal, than solar...
and, despite the
practicality issues, it's
totally viable.
Here's the caveat
though... Let me just tell
you that there is a wind
power tax credit that's
slated to expire at the
end of the year, and the
Senate and the House can't
seem to come to an
agreement right now about
how to fund an extension.
If this thing dies, the
whole segment is not wiped
out, by any means, but I
just wanted to give you
that color before I tell
you, I still think it will
pass. And, looking ahead
to the next
administration, if a
democrat winds up in the
White House, I believe it
will be made permanent.
The money is here. But
what about the stocks?...
We've scoured our great
country for good plays on
wind and, as it happens,
they're all buried in
other companies... which
brings me to yesterday...
and to the fact that, once
again, our viewers... I
call them the citizens of
Cramerica... are the
smartest in the world...
I took a call yesterday
from Stephan in Florida...
and what was the stock
that he asked me about?...
He asked me about TRN...
and what did I do to TRN?
... a company that just
about everybody thinks of
as a pure producer of
railcars?... What did I
say about it?... I gave it
the thumbs down... sell,
sell, sell! Well, because
I thought that, as a
short-term play on
earnings, it's really just
a railcar thing...
And, as far as that goes,
it's true... I don't think
their earnings from
railcars will be any good.
Why?... Because TRN just
told us they wouldn't be
that good. They just
guided down earnings...
I'm listening to the
company. And that was
despite the fact that they
make railcars that ship
ethanol and grain... and,
despite the fact that
Cramer-fave CEO, Michael
Ward, of CSX... He said
that there's going to be a
lot of railcar buying...
TRN's main lot of
business... but I was not
going to buck the
company... I was not going
to buck the company, and
buy a stock where they
told us not to like it...
But you know what?... I
was thinking too small...
too rear-view mirror... I
was focused too much on
the company that TRN is
now. And too little on the
company that TRN will
become.
When I said TRN was a
sell, I was breaking wind,
when I should have been
thinking wind...
Because, here's the
thing... TRN also happens
to be the largest
manufacturer of wind
towers in the U.S.... Last
year, wind was only 6% of
their business. I think
it's going to grow to 10%
just this year... and I
now believe that TRN
should be the #1 wind play
out there... a mighty wind
indeed.
The best comparison I have
here, and this may sound a
little strange just at
first... is
Apple Inc. (AAPL).
I heart Apple... If you
were thinking too small,
too rearview mirror about
AAPL in 2002 and 2003,
thinking of it as a
computer company that
sells music players, you
know you missed the
biggest move that we've
seen in ages... You didn't
see what the iPod and,
eventually, what the
iPhone
would become... fashion
accessories!
You missed the idea that
AAPL, the tech stock was
becoming Apple, the sexy
brand.
Of course, I'm very
lucky... my daughter clued
me into this change, when
she asked me to buy her a
second, different-colored
iPod for the holidays,
right after I bought her
one for her birthday...
I'm also lucky that my
kids swear by iChat and
now laugh at the pathetic
Dell (DELL)
and
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ*)
computers... don't buy,
don't buy. They think
those are (like) radio...
Apple is television.
I reiterate that AAPL must
be bought on the strength
of iChat and the potential
iChat at the iPhone... but
that's not what we're
talking about. It's an
analogy. Sorry to get so
sidetracked, but you know
that I wanted you to be in
AAPL...
We're talking about
looking at AAPL as a
static PC maker, and TRN,
as I did, as a static
railcar maker. You can
view it as a railcar
play... what it is now...
or you take the
Bobby-Kennedy-some-men-see-things-as-they-are-and-say-why-I-dream-things-that-never-were-and-say-why-not
(whew!) approach, and look
at TRN as the wind
powerhouse it will become.
The company sells at 8x
earnings. It's got merely
a $2 billion market cap.
It's down 41% from its
high. Hey, we ain't missed
anything right? Even
though I don't think the
next quarter will be any
good, I think this could
be like
Nabors (NBR),
where you have to get in
ahead of the bad quarter
anyway...
You have to, not because
of where TRN is now but,
because of where it might
be, thanks to its
dominance of the wind
market. Right now, TRN's
wind business has a $750
million backlog. The
company expects wind
towers to be an $800-900
million business in sales
after five years.
This is a company,
remember, that's only
worth a little more than
$2 billion (i.e., its
market cap).
TRN's already expanded its
existing wind plant. It's
building another in
Mexico. It plans to build
a third in Iowa. TRN is
based in Texas, which is
the country's largest wind
market... around 24% of
the installed capacity
too.
The wind story is here
everybody...
It's not just Green Week.
Wind will be here next
week, after Green Week...
post-Green Week... If
there were any company
trying to get a presence
in this terrific source of
alternative energy, I
would buy TRN for the
windmill manufacturing
business, and spin off
that train car
manufacturing business. I
would then bring the
windmill business public
for what I bet would be
the whole... really the
value of the whole
company...
. . . .
.
[See Jim's
previous extensive
comments and
argument to buy
TRN
here.]
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
If you want to keep
thinking of
Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN)
as a railcar play, you're
tilting at windmills...
Focus on TRN's future as
the top builder of wind
towers, and you should see
just how attractive this
8x earnings, $2 billion
company, that is TRN,
really is...
[See Jim's 2nd Opening
Segment stock picks
below... ]
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|
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TRN |
28.21 |
na |
Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN)
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Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
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Opening Segment 2
Title: |
'Prevailing Wind' |
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Otter Tail Corp.
(OTTR)
See OTTR's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
OTTR
here.
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC: For Green
Week today, we're talking
about one of the cheapest
forms of renewable
energy... scratch that...
one of the cheapest forms
of any kind of energy out
there... cheaper than oil,
cheaper than natural gas,
cheaper than coal, cheaper
than solar... you name
it... and cleaner than
every one of them...
I'm talking about wind...
The problems with wind are
obvious... but where it
works - and this country
is full of flat, windy
places where wind power
can thrive - it works
well, and it works
inexpensively. The
problem, as I said
earlier, is that there
aren't any good pure plays
on wind power that U.S.
investors can easily
buy...
General Electric (GE),
parent company of this
network, has a big wind
division, but you don't
buy GE for the wind
division, okay?...
So, we have to look for
wind plays hidden within
other companies... wind
plays playing hide and
seek... and we found
them... olly olly oxen
free... which brings me to
my favorite play on wind
power of all...
This is a company... that
is so absurd... so
stupidly-named, so
funny...
Otter Tail Corp.
(OTTR).
Yeah, OTTR... which is a
strange pastiche, even a
mosaic, of businesses...
but mainly a boring
utility serving the
Dakotas and Minnesota.
OTTR is a bunch of random
businesses that are in
plastics, construction and
potato processing, of all
things... but we care
about is the fact that it
owns DMI Industries,
a fast-growing wind tower
manufacturer, that I
believe could be worth as
much as... well, it could
be worth the entirety of
OTTR... That's right. It
could be worth the whole
company...
I would never have known
about this, without a
great research piece from
a firm called D.A.
Davidson... Do some
business with D.A.
Davidson... get this
research... because DMI's
contribution is buried
within OTTR's earnings.
And, I've got to tell you,
even when I went through
"the Q"... the SEC
document... it wasn't
clear how big it is. Thank
you Davidson...
The wind business
contributed 27 cents to
OTTR's earnings per share
in 2007, up 42% - nice
growth... Remember, up-30%
growth is hard to find.
We've got 42% growth
within this company...
from 19 cents in 2006.
The guys at Davidson...
they believe that DMI
could contribute 44 cents
per share to OTTR's
earnings this year... 63
cents per share to this
power company in 2009.
That means their wind
business is set to grow...
are you ready... at 63%
this year. 43% next year,
but it's so big that I
find that incredible...
I scour the world both for
wind plays, and for stocks
that are up more than 30%.
I found it within OTTR...
With growth like that, I
have to believe that, if
OTTR spun off DMI - its
wind tower manufacturing
business - it could unlock
an enormous amount of
value for shareholders, by
letting people buy a
fast-growing pure play on
wind power, separate from
the confusing mix,
pastiche, mosaic of other
businesses that make up
OTTR...
We've got a market that's
starved for wind.
Remember, there aren't
really any pure plays out
there. So, if OTTR did do
this DMI spinoff, I have
to believe that the Street
would leap all over it.
How much is the spinoff
worth?...
D.A. Davidson sees DMI
bringing in revenues of
$439 million in 2009.
Earlier in the show, I
talked about TRN, and
their wind tower
manufacturing business.
Let's slap the same
enterprise value to
sales multiple on DMI's
revenues, as the one that
I think TRN deserves...
Are you ready?... You get
a company worth about a
billion bucks... It comes
to $36.71 a share...
That's actually a dollar
more than OTTR's whole
price. DMI is just one
piece of OTTR's business,
which should probably
represent about 28% of the
company's earnings next
year...
In other words, with OTTR
at $36, and the valuation
of its wind division at
$36, you get an implied...
are you ready... double.
Why doesn't OTTR get
credit for its fantastic
wind business?... These
guys are humble. That's
why. Management doesn't
say too much about DMI...
It just stuffs it in with
its six other businesses
in its manufacturing
segment.
That doesn't make me think
too highly of their
competence, frankly. They
should be highlighting it.
But maybe somebody at OTTR
is watching this show, and
wants to make some
money...
Memo to Otter Tail... Wind
is the tail wagging the
otter!...
Let me give you a little
more detail on the DMI
segment of OTTR...
We know that the backlog
for DMI was at around $289
million at the end of
2007... They've already
built around 616 towers.
Davidson says they have
about 18% wind market
share. There are some
concerns about
competition. I'm not that
concerned about it. I'm
not worried about it,
because of the enormous
potential for growth that
the wind power industry
has...
The company's expanding
its Canadian manufacturing
plant for wind towers. It
now has three plants
devoted to making them.
Geographically speaking,
DMI should be in a great
position, because it's
located close to some of
the best regions in
America for wind
farming... North Dakota,
South Dakota, Montana and
Minnesota, just to name a
few...
These are windswept areas,
without a lot of people,
so you can build a lot of
windmill | | | | |