Friday, 04/25/08
Posted 04/26/08,  08:07 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Friday, 04/25/08

  Dow Jones: 12,891    + 42
  NASDAQ:   2,422    -  6
  S&P 500:   1,397    + 9
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Pin Action'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Precision Castparts Corp. (PCP)

BE Aerospace Inc. (BEAV)


See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


JJC:   I've found some camouflaged green plays... stocks that you'd never imagine as environmentally-friendly, because they're as disguised by cammo as I am... and yet, they're actually making money off of green trends...

We can find our first two hidden green plays inside this... This is a Boeing Co. (BA) 787 GreenLiner, and it is poised to be the world's greenest plane, designed to consume 20% less fuel, than similarly-sized aircraft...

Now, BA has delayed and delayed and delayed the delivery date for this plane, which I'm calling from now on the GreenLiner... But, when it gave its most recent guidance this week, it didn't revise its GreenLiner schedule any further... which means it looks like we can finally recommend this plane...

But I'm not recommending BA as a pure green play... I have liked BA so long, but BA is hidden in plain sight... unlike Cramer, and the two cammo plays I am going to give you...

To find them under the war paint, we have to take apart the 787. Since 70% of the GreenLiner's manufacturing has been outsourced, BA's suppliers are the hidden green stocks... They're the cammo plays...

So, what's inside?...

Take the GreenLiner apart, and you'll find not one, but two, camouflaged green plays...

Precision Castparts Corp. (PCP)...

and...

BE Aerospace Inc. (BEAV).

We like PCP as an early-cycle play on the GreenLiner, meaning it's making money off the early construction of these planes right now.

BEAV is a late-cycle play... It makes most of its money when BA sells the planes, and other companies (e.g., airlines) furnish them with things like seats and kitchens, which is what BEAV makes.

These are what we call pin action plays...

Let's start with Precision Castparts Corp. (PCP)...

This company is making engine components and fasteners for the 787 that are roughly $5 million worth of PCP components in every 787... $5 million in each one of these is PCP... It's split 50/50 between fasteners - which are like screws - and the higher-margin engine parts...

PCP's CEO has said that, so far, it's a $4 billion order book for the 787. Let me give you some context on that number...

The Street only expects PCP to have revenues of $7 billion for its fiscal year, ending in March 2008... so the GreenLiner should be a big, big chunk of its business.

I call PCP an early-cycle play... What that means is that BA is buying these parts from them, and putting them in the plane itself... Fasteners and engines are some of the first things you build into a plane...

This means this is a stock you buy earlier than BEAV - the late cycle of BA - to take advantage of the 787...

Of course, PCP is about more than just the GreenLiner...

Half of PCP's business is aerospace, where it makes engine components, fans, compressors, combustors, air foils, landing gear beams... this is the real deal, right?... wing structures, struts, tail flaps, fasteners... You get the picture...

In fact, PCP said that they're in every single kind of jet aircraft out there... Considering that we're only in year three of what could be a seven or eight year aerospace cycle, that makes me think that PCP is a long-term... not a short term... but a long-term buy, buy, buy!

Their customer base is terrific... 17% of its sales come from General Electric (GE), parent company of this network... 17% from Rolls Royce... 11% from United Technologies (UTX)... These are companies making money off of aerospace and infrastructure booms, and PCP is making money of them.

This company also has a power business... 21% of revenues... making components for power plants that are used for coal, nukes, oil and gas... I mean, c'mon, this company, PCP, has a lot going for it... A lot of that growth is overseas.

The CEO said in a recent presentation that he is seeing overall demand in the power segment that he wasn't expecting until 2010... He is basically telling you that they are two years ahead...

PCP seems like a real good bet.

All right, on to the next stock...

We're going to go on to BE Aerospace Inc. (BEAV)...

This is the stuff that falls out when you smash a GreenLiner...

BEAV... They make the interiors... oxygen masks, ovens, beverage makers.

The company's CEO said that the GreenLiner could be a $1.5 billion opportunity, assuming that 1,000 of these planes get built... And that's just slightly less than BEAV's $1.6 billion in annual revenues...

You get it... Another camouflage play hidden within the GreenLiner...

BEAV is focused on the aftermarket from the 787... and other planes... 60% of its sales going there...

I like this because things like seats, which represent 38% of BEAV's revenues, generally need to be refurbished every one or two years... so they've got this replacement business... The larger the global airline fleet gets, the more seats are out there that need to be refurbished by BEAV. That's a positive shot to the system, adding more planes to the global fleet, and increasing BEAV's business...

Now, BEAV has got a great backlog of $2.2 billion... 60% of the company's market cap... Even better, only 15% of that backlog is associated with U.S. airlines... 38% of total North America, giving it some real rest-of-world credibility...

Okay, now here's the one issue, all right...

The company reports Monday, before the bell... So, if you want to buy it, be sure to do your homework, read the earnings release, and listen to the conference call...

And, if you don't know what I mean by homework, I want you to pick up a copy of Jim Cramer's
Real Money, where I explain what you have to do before you buy a stock I pick on the show, to get a better idea...

I like PCP and BEAV as stealth, cammo green plays, but they're also part of one of the long-term trends that I like so much, that I committed in this
Stay Mad For Life...

I have said that this aerospace cycle, from 1995 to 2000... think about this... the previous cycle... PCP went from $4 to $21 bucks... 325%...

BEAV went from $7 to $16, a 124% gain... although the stock had been at higher levels in the middle of the cycle...

The latest aerospace cycle started in 2005. These have generally lasted five to eight years... and, with the 787 Dreamliner, we're looking at an extended cycle now...

I think we're three years in... I believe PCP and BEAV have a lot further to go...


Now here's the bottom line...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      You want camouflage green stocks? I want you to crack open a 787... and what will fall out? Precision Castparts Corp. (PCP) and BE Aerospace Inc. (BEAV)... Those are the plays on the incredible run that Boeing (BA) has had just this week.


[See Jim's 2nd Opening Segment stock picks below... ]

 

 

 



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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

PCP

28.21

na

Precision Castparts Corp. (PCP)


BEAV

na

na

BE Aerospace Inc. (BEAV)

 

 


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Second Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'Cramer's Game Plan
  For Next Week'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Cummins Inc. (CMI)

See CMI's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for CMI here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


JJC:   What if I told you that our next green stock was a dirty, smokestack, industrial company that makes diesel engines? You might call me crazy...

But sometimes it takes a madman to see that, even the least-green-looking companies can make money, because of something like a political push to fight global warming...

And that's why (I like)... Cummins Inc. (CMI).

Yeah, remember that one? That's right, dirty old CMI is my next camouflaged green play.

By the way, this is also the stock that I picked for my Game Plan next week. It reports Wednesday, before the bell, and I think the quarter will be good.

This is a stock that we've had a lot of success with... I recommended this stock at $36.61... that's split-adjusted... I was betting against the shorts that day, who thought it was in trouble, because of weak North American truck sales...

CMI and Cramer proved them wrong...

And I declared victory, less than a month later, on April 27th, with the stock up at $48... a quick 31% gain...

At the current price, the stock's up 53%, from my Indiana University recommendation (on April 4th, 2007)...

Now... What makes this engine company so green?...

All over the world, governments are increasing their emissions standards for trucks so that they run cleaner... releasing less pollutants... especially carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

CMI has been one of the most proactive engine makers, in terms of responding to tighter emission standards...

They make fuel injectors, filters and turbo chargers for trucks that make their engines run cleaner than other companies' engines...

Based on this head start, it seems to me that this is a company with a clear technological advantage, when it comes to making greener engines... They're looking forward, designing engines to be compliant with emissions regulations, well into the future. They're already testing 2010 compliant on highway engines, and integrating 2011 compliance...

It's very unusual to see a company this far ahead... You know, most of the companies fight the rules. CMI embraces them.

The engines CMI makes... on average... 6% more fuel efficient than ones made by Cramer-fave Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)...

CMI and Navistar International Corp. (NAVZ.PK) are supposed to be in the lead, with the next generation of 2010 emissions-compliant technology. But since NAVZ is vertically integrated, it's likely to benefit from this less than CMI... because it's less likely to sell its engines to competitors, which is what we really need, when we spread out...

Beyond the green engine business, CMI is eating CAT's lunchables... with other types of engines. CMI's share in heavy-duty engines has gone from 25% to 43%. Its share of overall Class 8 engines has gone from 25% in January of 2007, to 42%! This is the biggest share take I've seen by a major American company, since I started Mad Money...

In the same period, CAT's share went from 25% to 11%... To put it bluntly, CMI is pants-ing CAT...

CMI is also gaining share among all truck manufacturers... It's now the largest supplier to Paccar Inc. (PCAR)... it had some big gains there.

Right now, CMI is super cheap, cheap, cheap...

It's trading at just 10x earnings, 21% long-term growth rate... It's average price-to-earnings multiple (i.e., P/E) has been in the 20x earnings range historically...

I wouldn't be surprised... yes, here I come skee daddy... that we could get a double here eventually.

Now for the Game Plan element...

The company reports before the bell on Wednesday, and I've got a good reason to think that CMI will beat the numbers.

You know why?...

Volvo AB ADR (VOLVY.PK) reported a great number today, and Volvo is trucks... They sold their passenger car business a long time ago.

CMI is in 27% of Volvo's North American Class A trucks, so we're extrapolating here... If Volvo had a great quarter, to me, that says that CMI should have a great quarter...

Here's the bottom line...

.  .  .  .  .

[See Jim's previous extensive comments and argument to buy CMI here.]

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a green sheep in industrial wolf's clothing... with its fuel-efficient, low-emissions engines, and it reports before the bell next Wednesday. If you want the Game Plan next week, pull the trigger ahead of the earnings... Maybe even ring some