Monday, 05/05/08
Posted 05/05/08,  11:49 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Monday, 05/05/08

  Dow Jones: 12,969   -  88
  NASDAQ:   2,464   -  12
  S&P 500:   1,407    -  6
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Split Decision'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY)

See BMY's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for BMY here.



See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


JJC:   On this show in Cramerica, we like companies that can reinvent themselves!... At least as long as there's something worthwhile to reinvent...

...and that's exactly what I think Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) looks like right now...

Do you know, I've hated this stock, ever since I started this show... I mean, despised it...

I'm changing right here... BMY looks like it's breaking itself up, to become a pure play drug company... buy, buy, buy!... and, when that happens, it should become one of the cheapest drug companies out there... one that I would definitely consider buying...

Here's the story...

On Friday, BMY sold its wound care business, Convatech, for $4.1 billion. Step one... People yawned. The stock was down today... Sorry... that's stupid...

Step two is the partial spinoff of Mead Johnson, BMY's nutritionals... I want you to think baby formula business (e.g., the Enfamil brand)...

Right now, the plan is to sell 10-20% of the nutritionals business in an IPO... It should bring in $940 million to $1.9 billion. I think it's going to be on the high side; this is going to be a very hot IPO.

Now, there have been rumors that BMY wants to sell the whole division... There's a lot of opposition to this from investors, because of the cash flow it brings in and because of the taxes...

BMY would take an outright sale, I believe... People don't want it. I do.

People won't be yawning when it happens...

You see, this IPO is seen as a compromise. BMY keeps to keep Mead Johnson, as a cash cow, even as it establishes an independent evaluation for that part of the company, and gets the flexibility to sell off the whole thing, later on down the line. I personally wouldn't be a bit surprised to see a cash bid for this division from our friends, Heinz (HNZ)... which I believe would love to have it... But I think the IPO will most likely place a very high valuation on Mead Johnson, and that would boost all of BMY...

The money from Convatech - the sale on Friday - and the Mead Johnson IPO should give BMY the money it needs to buy up smaller pharmaceutical companies... build a better pipeline... diversify out of its portfolio risk...

So what's BMY look like, as a pure play on drugs?...

Well, in three years, drugs representing half of BMY's profits, including Plavix, will go off patent...

You can look at this two ways...

It looks like BMY has three years of great earnings visibility left for these drugs, or BMY has three years to get its act together, before things get really bad.

I see these two moves, the selling of Convatech and the IPO of Mead Johnson, as steps BMY is taking to avert a catastrophic situation in 2011, where BMY's biggest drugs go generic.

BMY can use the money from these sales to buy up smaller drug companies, and round out its drug portfolio to replace what it's losing. Oh, and the Mead Johnson spinoff... In two years, they'll have to sell it entirely... good tax consequences. That could provide BMY with a ton of money right before the patent expirations...

Now, BMY does have other drugs, that are new ones, that should help pick up the slack... In other words, 2011 isn't the end of the world... it isn't the beginning of the collapse of a great American drug company...

For example, Reyataz, an HIV drug, already brought in around $1.1 billion a year for BMY, and it isn't due to lose market exclusivity until 2017... BMY's got Sprycel, which is a chronic myeloid leukemia drug, that some analysts think could become a billon dollar drug blockbuster... a 2013 expiration...

BMY has Ixempra, a drug for advanced breast cancer tumors... $800 million mark by 2012... Then there's Orencia... this is one that I've been following closely, because I have friends who have this... a rhumetoid arthritis drug that could reach $1 billion in sales by 2012, making it another potential blockbuster... that one, I think, is understated...

BMY's got a hepatitis drug, Baraclude, that could hit $700 million, within the next three years... These are all real drugs... How about the diabetes II drugs they've got... Saxagliptin... in the pipeline... phase III data coming out in June... I think you want to be in, ahead of that data... It could be a $500-600 million drug by 2012...

You see all these drugs by 2012 they have?... The "no pipeline" rap?... I think it's unjustified, in light of that lineup...

To put it this way... and it's even better than the fact that some think they have no pipeline...

Nobody believes anything BMY says... Any sweet upside... anything that does work is going to be immediately impactful, and make you money.

Now, tomorrow, BMY is going to have its annual meeting, and I think all of this is going to come out... The strategy to deal with its big drugs going generic... It's attempts to become more of a pure play drug maker... And I also think BMY will highlight the pipeline...

It's really much, much better than people think... Yeah! BMY is trying to reinvent itself!...

In addition to what I've already told you, it's been slashing costs. I mean, really getting rid of a lot of people there... BMY's got $1.5 in savings by 2012...

And, of course, there's BMY's bountiful 5.4% yield... I regard that as mouth watering... 11.4x forward earnings... I mean, it's ridiculous... It's got 11.4% long-term growth rate...

Big dividend... good growth rate... I think this is a stock... This is a stock that could either go up soon at the meeting tomorrow... if it is bullish, and I think it will be... or go up later. Hey, you know what?... If it takes longer, that's fine with me! BMY's paying you to wait, with that mighty dividend... much better than treasuries!...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) is transforming itself!... BMY is becoming more of a pure play on drugs and I think it's doing a good job of dealing with upcoming patent expirations in 2011, with a pipeline that doesn't get enough love. I think this one's a buy, ahead of when another drug company buys it... or the company's more positive fortunes - at last - come to light...


[See Jim's 2nd Opening Segment stock picks below... ]

 

 

 



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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

BMY

23.25

na

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY)



         

 


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Second Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'Foiled Again'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Alcoa, Inc. (AA)

See AA's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for AA here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

 

JJC:   We're going into the "wayback machine"... way back... taking us all the way... to try to make some money off of a tale of two cans... You see, on the one hand, you've got a steel can... and, on the other hand, you've got an aluminum can...

Historically, when steel gets too expensive... and, right now, we're in a moment where steel is real expensive... companies switch from steel to aluminum... It's cheaper and, because we're in the wayback machine, we remember it's called, "substitution"...

The steel companies have been putting in several price increases intra-quarter, which really is pretty amazing... and, while we've praised United States Steel Corp. (X) endlessly - including 40 points ago... that was like a month ago...40 points! - we now see that the cost of aluminum has now gotten way out of whack with the cost of steel, and you know what? This is about as simple a story as it gets... but, believe me, it works if you get in at the right time...

And I think the way to play the aluminum substitution game is... AA... another company like Bristol-Myers (BMY), which I have continually denigrated on this show... but I am changing my mind...

.  .  .  .  .

AA has about 10.9% of the world aluminum market... 19.8% of the alumina market... the actual raw stuff...

Living in America, we don't realize the enormous substitution potential that aluminum has, because we use aluminum in virtually almost all of our metal beverage cans but, in the rest of the world, metal beverage cans are split 50/50 between aluminum and steel...

You've got roughly 25 billion of these cans in Europe... A lot of them are still steel and, with steel prices so high, you'd better believe they're going to try to substitute for the cheaper metal... aluminum. There are plenty of steel aerosol cans out there... both places where you can substitute the cheaper aluminum too... and this is just the substitution part of the story... swapping out of steel for aluminum, because steel is so expensive... just one reason to buy AA.

I've got some others, and I think they're dynamite...

There are plenty of other reasons why manufacturers are using more aluminum...

Automakers, for example, have been using more aluminum each year, because it's lightweight... to save energy. It's a great aerospace metal for the same reason.

Also, according to the chairman of Alumina, an Australian company - and this is just as of three days ago - the Chinese are finally, finally now running short of aluminum... since high Chinese inventories have been holding the price of aluminum back... This is yet another reason to believe that aluminum should be going higher, at last and, therefore, take AA (higher)...

Let me throw in another thing that has happened in the last six weeks...

Power shortages in South Africa... they are keeping aluminum production down in that country... and you've got a great thesis for aluminum (prices) going up. We think it can go up faster than its raw costs... mostly the energy needed to smelt it... and that's something we haven't felt could happen until the Chinese excess capacity got worked off, and South Africa's problems starting hampering production. Those were the two places that were killing pricing...

Meanwhile, we know that AA teamed up with Chinalko... and a 12% stake with Rio Tinto (RTP)... Remember, just again, last week... we learned that the BHP bid for RTP is pretty much over. Why wouldn't BHP Billiton (BHP) then turn and buy AA?...

Looking at what RTP paid for Alcan, the last big aluminum acquisition... using those metrics... AA would be worth anywhere from $50, if you use sales... We're talking about a big increase to $50... and $64, if use measurements that involve cash flow...

AA could be a $64 stock masquerading as a $36 stock... because, with all the consolidation in the sector, I just can't think of a reason why BHP can afford to stay away, now that it's pretty much failed to get RTP...

Another thing... People don't realize that AA has a fantastic fastener business... think little screws, okay... They've built this business up over a 20-year period... The aerospace business, which also includes plates for wing and fuselage skins, and turbine airfoils... It's ignored... it's crazy. Now the fastener business... no one's wanted to look at it... It's been on hold because of all the delays with the Boeing (BA) Dreamliner... AA is supplying more than a million fasteners for a 787. It's their third-highest revenue plane and, now that it's finally on schedule, people should be buying AA off it, darn it...

A monstrous buyback... The company has 135 million shares left in its repurchase authorization... 16% of outstanding shares... The stock is trading at 10x 2008 earnings... 21% long-term growth rate... 10x earnings... No wonder people say this market won't go down... AA's cheap, even without a takeout...

Okay... Now, what's it doing at $36? The long-term reputation is poor... A series of missed opportunities and missed quarters... But, now, I think the only thing keeping it back is another kind of miss... mis-perception!
 

.  .  .  .  .


The Bottom Line!:      When steel prices get as high as they are now, companies generally start substituting aluminum for steel. It's not in anybody's numbers... I read through every single report on Alcoa, Inc. (AA) this weekend... And AA is the low-multiple substitution play, in addition to being a sweet, juicy... takeover target.

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


AA

36.89

na

Alcoa, Inc. (AA)

         

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

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Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

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Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
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