Thursday, 05/08/08
Posted 05/08/08,  9:03 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 05/08/08

  Dow Jones: 12,866   +  52
  NASDAQ:   2,451   +  12
  S&P 500:   1,397    + 5
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Ship Shape'

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Featured Stock(s): Nordic American Tanker (NAT)

See NAT*'s official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for NAT here.




See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

        
JJC:    What if I told you that there was a stock that could give you a huge dividend... a huge yield... and, when I say huge here, I'm not talking about a relatively puny, 5%, 6%, or 7% yield... No. I'm talking about giving you a morbidly obese double-digit yield... a yield that needs a tummy tuck!... And, at the same time, could potentially deliver serious, maybe as much as 25% upside...

Would you call me crazy?...

You don't often find these two things together... capital appreciation, capital preservation... but I think I've got it... I've got it all in one stock... I've got to go to Scandinavia to give it to you, but that's okay... because it trades here... and that stock is...

...Nordic American Tanker (NAT)!...

NAT is an oil tanker stock, and tanker stocks typically have zobtic yields, but NAT stands above the rest!... But, beyond that, this is a great time for oil tankers, at $125 oil... because spot prices for using these tankers are going higher and higher...

We've like other oil tanker stocks, and you know which one we've liked all the way... Frontline (FRO), which is up 17% since I recommended it on July 23rd of last year... giving you a 36% gain, when you include the dividend payouts... I see NAT as the next FRO...

.  .  .  .  .


NAT just reported earnings this week... Their earnings per share were below consensus estimates. I did wait for that... I feared that... But the company raised its quarterly dividend to $1.18, to be paid to shareholders of record on May 23rd...

Now, listen... That dividend is double the size of the dividends that NAT paid in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2007. I'm not so concerned about the missed earnings report, because spot rates are going up huge... NAT tankers are making... okay, these are numbers (i.e., metrics) that are normally associated with hedge fund managers... making $46,600 per day... Last year, they were making $27,000 a day, in the previous quarter; that's why we stayed away from these guys. I think the rates are going higher...

NAT typically uses dividends to forecast the future of profits. But, before we talk price increases, let's take a look at the company...

NAT has a fleet of 12 Suez Max double-hulled tankers... with two more under construction that should join the fleet between 2009 and 2010... A Suez Max is one that can fit through the Suez canal... These are smaller than the largest oil tankers which, in professional parlance, are called VLCCs... Very Large Crude Carriers...

Of NAT's 12 tankers, 11 are contracted at spot prices, meaning they're contracted out at whatever the current price is... they've got the leverage... And, right now, those prices are high... Average Suez Max spot rates, between January and April, $60,000 a day... higher than $46,000 that NAT reported in the latest quarter, the one that people didn't like...

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What's causing these high rates?...

For one, OPEC (i.e., oil-producing exporting countries) production has increased the volume of oil imports to the West... Well, of course, prices are up... wouldn't they be doing that?... That means more demand for tanker space...

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Beyond that, oil tanker stocks are very simple... They don't trade off the price of crude, so to speak... They're levered off the price of transporting crude... and that's determined by the number of oil tankers out there... Prices are high, and should stay high, because some of the largest oil tankers, the VLCCs are exiting the market, being converted to dry bulk ships... and oil platforms... That means that VLCC fleet growth should be flat. That's the competition...

We also know from NAT's latest quarter that Suez Max fleet growth stayed flat too... Again, no more ships... Again, we stayed away from this group, because the ships were being printed... they were putting so many of them out there... No more...

So, we've got high rates, and it looks like we're not adding ships... That's a recipe for rates to go higher...

And... you want trust?... The CEO, Herbjrn Hansson... I call him the IronMan of the Suez Max industry...

.  .  .  .  .


Now let's throw in something else... ships being taken off the market...

By 2010, 46 single-hull vessels - remember, our guy is double-hulled - should be taken off the market. You've also got Suez Max tankers being converted to offshore vessels, the dry bulk carriers... the same types of ships that NAT uses...

We also know that Iran is doubling the amount of oil that they're storing in idle tankers in the Persian Gulf, taking tankers off the market... again, increasing prices. Remember, it's the supply and demand of ships...

Last year, an oil spill in Korea also increased the demand for double-hull tankers. All of NAT tankers are double-hulled... That's helping to keep the spot rates high... All of this talk about spot rates is important, because they determine the size of NAT's dividend distributions, and that's why you want the stock...

.  .  .  .  .


I gave you all of that stuff so you understood why I am confident that this outsized dividend could even go higher... It's the $60,000 per day... that's the number I threw at you earlier for January... If that goes up... if it's correct, then NAT's dividend payout for the current quarter could be around $1.56 per share... Hey, it's not me saying just that... Bear Stearns is saying it.

Now you're talking about an implied yield of 17%...

Remember, the dividend they just announced for the last quarter was $1.18... so now it's 11.2%....

This is a company that's already paying out a massive dividend. To me, it looks like it's going to get even bigger...

.  .  .  .  .


Now, the Street is a lot less bullish than I am, when it comes to tankers... Of the 10 analysts covering NAT, only three have buys, against five holds, two sells... What have they got against the Scandinavians?... What is that all about?... They never hurt anybody.

The Street expects tanker rates to pull back in the second half of the year, as supply grows... I think that's a faulty assumption... I think they're stupid... I think they're wrong... I think they're morons... I can't see the supply of tankers growing fast enough to knock rates down...

The number of double-hulled VLCCs available in the next 30 days has been cut in half over the last month, from 56 to 28... Where are these analysts? Why are they taking this into account? Why am I the only one doing the work here? Oh... that's right... because I'm not paid billions of dollars, like they are.

This does not seem to be in the market, where supply is expanding... you just don't get that, with this kind of work...

.  .  .  .  .

Where does this put NAT?...

The tanker stocks trade, based on their yields... If NAT trades up to a 9% yield, which would put it inline with the other tanker stocks, you've got 25% (projected increase) in the stock...

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The Bottom Line!:
     You've got to love the oil tanker story... I think the stock's going higher, and I think the yield is going to go lower, because the dividend is going to be up.  Again, I'm always trying to get you that ratio...  I want you to understand that the dividend is different than the yield...  The dividend is the amount they give you (per share)...  It's what you divide the stock into... So it's entirely possible the dividend goes up, which sends the stock up, which sends the yield down.  That's the holy trinity of what we're looking for in a stock...  Right here, right now, I am upgrading Nordic American Tanker (NAT) to be as good as Frontline Ltd. (FRO)...

 

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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


NAT

36.64

na

Nordic American Tanker (NAT)

         
 

 

 



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Second Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'Thermal Dynamic'

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Featured Stock(s): Ormat Technologies Inc. (ORA)

See ORA*'s official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for ORA here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

        
JJC: Many thanks to... Jason Guerowitz, who is the remarkable producer who came up with the idea to talk at length about the 60th anniversary of a great country, that is a fabulous developer of business too... So we're going to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the State of Israel tonight on Mad Money... by, of course, our signature... we're going to help you make some money... in an Israeli stock that is as green as they come... but green is green, as in dollars, on this show...

Our Israeli anniversary stock is...

... Ormat Technologies Inc. (ORA)!

This sizzling company is a vertically-integrated geothermal power play... geothermal being a source of completely renewable energy...

Now, it's headquartered in Nevada... it's a stealth Israeli play. 60% of it is owned by an Israeli company, Ormat Industries... Half of its employees work in Israel... The reason why we went for ORA, a company that isn't totally Israeli, is that, even though there are a lot of Israeli stocks that trade in U.S. markets, very few of them right now, we thought, were right for the show...

I mean, for instance, a lot of people about Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA), the generic drug maker, but everyone loves TEVA even though, to me, it's just another generic play with some proprietary offerings, like Barr Labs (BRL), which is down 11 points today... We've never liked airlines on this show or generic drug companies... and I think you should be glad that we haven't; they've hurt a lot of people.

.  .  .  .  .

You see, I like what ORA does, a heck of lot more than I like TEVA... Plus, ORA's already made you a lot of money... February 2nd of 2006... at $35-40... that's when we put it on the list... It's up 51% since then...

And this is a stock you can be proud of... particularly to those of you who are oriented