Friday, 05/09/08
Posted 05/11/08,  8:23 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Friday, 05/09/08

  Dow Jones: 12,745  - 120
  NASDAQ:   2,445   -  5
  S&P 500:   1,388    - 9
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Cramer's Game Plan
  For Next Week'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)

Wal-Mart (WMT)

Deere (DE)

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)



See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

        
JJC:    First, on Monday... after the close there is McDermott International Inc. (MDR)...it's always known as "murder" on the trading desk...I don't care one bit about MDR, but after that last quarter and the pre-announcement, it's too hard to call, they've had too much disruption in their coal fire business. And we know from Ray Milkovich of Foster Wheeler (FWLT*), that the business domestically has softened. So why mention MDR at all? If MDR gets hit, it's going to take down fellow infrastructure play FWLT, and that's going to be a great buying opportunity. We know all FWLT businesses are smoking other than this coal fire business, it just reported, we just talked of Ray Milkovich?. So, MDR gets hit, you buy FWLT...

.  .  .  .  .


Tuesday:   We got the king. We got Wal-Mart (WMT). We like this one very much. Reporting before the open, I think the stock is headed, courtesy of options expiration, to $60. That is my target price for next week. Lee Scott, by the way, he runs the best retailer in America, particularly when things are tougher. WMT has gone from worst to first in our eyes, and we even shop there now...I love the price of them. This is one you buy ahead of the quarter.

Now, on the flip side, Liz Claiborne Inc. (LIZ) reports that day.  LIZ is the quintessential sell...we don't like it. We think that turnaround is years away. We don't like mid to high end retail right now, either. This one is a total cats and dogs play with way to much exposure to the big bad department stores. If we buy WMT, buy, buy, buy...and sell LIZ, I think you're going to make some real good cash: it's what is called a pairs trade.

.  .  .  .  .


Wednesday:  Before the open gives us one of our absolute favorites: Deere (DE). This is a 37 billion dollar company that is in the sweet spot of the two biggest shortages of our time, oil and food. Farmers love to spend and we love to give them a lot of money. They take the money and by DE. The dollar is weak, farmers worldwide buy DE. This is the premier world wide manufacturer today with superior technology and a superior attitude and superior state of mind. This is a great brand name, and it's doing what we may do best in this country, which is making farm equipment. DE is a fantastic rest of worlder with wonderful management. Sometimes the stock acts nutty after reports. Here's what you do. You buy half your position before, that's Monday, and you buy the other half after, unless the stock is up so much you can't reconcile yourself paying that much because the stock is up so high. Business in Latin America...they just had a big presentation in Brazil that was off the charts with this company...and ethanol is not going away. Plantings are up worldwide because of the great prices farmers are getting and they can't do it without DE. This company is also a new tech play because it has got a new plant that has gotten a lot of stuff in, loading proprietary technology making better, faster, cheaper farm equipment. Just remember, half before the quarter, half after, unless it's too expensive.

.  .  .  .  .


Thursday:  From the farmer to the Dell...or at least Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). I think HPQ will have a big quarter. Big... big!... I don't think it will matter. The upside in HPQ is always after hours and then it gives up the gains. Sell half of your HPQ before the quarter reports and then sell the other half right after. Mark Hurd, the CEO, is a miracle worker and the weak dollar is working wonder in their bottom line. HPQ is best of breed, but it is old technology and we don't want old tech. We want you to ring the register on this one, some before the quarter and some after, it's just too dicey a call and I think owning the stock into the summer is just a beggars bet.

.  .  .  .  .


The Bottom Line!:
    
Monday:  Foster Wheeler (FWLT*).
Tuesday is Wal-Mart (WMT).
Wednesday is Deere (DE).
Thursday is sell half Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) before, half after.
That's your game plan...

 

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


FWLT*

68.97

na

Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)


WMT

57.18

na

Wal-Mart (WMT)


DE

86.31

na

Deere (DE)


HPQ

49.13

na

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)

         
 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Second Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'Auto Repair'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Visteon Corp. (VC)

See VC's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for VC here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

        
JJC:    I think it's finally ready to be bought... I think Visteon Corp. (VC), which used to stand for Victim's club, could now be for Victor's club. Understand me, VC is a pure turn around play so we know they are inheritantly dangerous. This company is restructuring itself. That's the catalyst. That's why I'm recommending an auto parts play in an environment where I don't want to go near the auto parts, other than the FORD Preferred (F-PA). If you remember that Lear Corp. (LEA) turnaround which continues, it started in 2006, I think this could be the next Leer. VC will go up for one terribly unsexy reason, a reason I typically don't like to recommend stocks, but for this group it works. That is head count reduction. They're slashing costs and that boosts the numbers. But the street is fighting them tooth and nail.

.  .  .  .  .

Last week, VC reported a spectacular quarter, much better than expected with earnings before interest and taxes a positive 51 million dollars, the street was looking for a 40 million dollar loss in earnings before interest and taxes. The street was looking for a house of pain but they got a house of pleasure. Still, it's a small number considering VC 2.86 billion in sales for the quarter, but the numbers are improving. The margins, the company's profitability is improving. Gross margins for the first quarter actually increased, I didn't expect this, to 7.1%, from 4.2% last year. You know what that tells me? It tells me that the turn around is working. It makes me a buyer.

.  .  .  .  .

Now of all the bulge bracket major firms that cover VC, they've all got in neutral or a hold, don't buy, and not one of them changed their ratings after this unexpected quarter. These are all fighting it. They won't come around until it's too late. They are gonna stay bearish until its bullish and that's great for you because when they are finally forced to come around the good numbers from VC, they'll take the stock even higher and let you make the great trade. The expectations from the street are so low it just creates a fantastic opportunity for you to buy VC and for VC to pull another upside surprise. VC is helping them with lowball guidance. They are saying we don't know if we can make it, perfect. They're saying it's going to be break even cash flow for this year. That's so low even the animals don't believe in it. VC is perfect...under promise, over deliver. The analysts have been singed, they've been scalded, they've been toasted, had third degree burns on 101% of their bodies. They don't want to go positive. But we haven't been burned, we're tanned, like Les Moonves, CEO of CBS Corporation (CBS). But we have the edge and we are saying VC is a buy, buy, buy. 

.  .  .  .  .

This company has made great strides in cutting costs. It sold 23 unprofitable plants. That had the added advantage of removing more than 18,000 expensive union employee contracts. I love unions, but on this show I'm wearing my share holder hat and I'll take higher share prices over unions on any day of the week. For example, back in Sept 2005, VC sold it's automotive components holding business back to Ford, allowing the company to rid itself of continued losses. They also got Ford to absorb some of their healthcare liability. That's huge because the union healthcare liability really weighs down on anything auto. The largest cost in making an automobile is healthcare. VC is focused on building strong leadership positions and niche auto positions: electronics, climate sensors, interior parts. VC today is a smaller, more efficient company with a more realistic cost structure that management believes will make VC more profitable by 20 tan, that's close.

.  .  .  .  .

VC has also been diversifying its sales, it no longer just relies on Ford. In 2004 Ford was 70% of VC sales and by 2007 it was below 40%. Management expects Ford to decline to 25% of sales by 2010. Even though we believe in Ford, and prefer the preferred that was issued in 2006. Sales to GM and Chrysler were only 4%, so actually VC could benefit from increased sales to the other members of the not so big anymore three. The company has substantial contracts with Hyundai, that's 15% of sales, Nissan Murano, 11% of sales and it's already established a presence with the rest of the world...Asia 5% of revenue growth in the first