|
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
● |
|
|
 |
| |
| |
 |
| |
|
| |
Friday, 05/09/08
Posted 05/11/08, 8:23
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
|
| |
| |
|
Today's date:
Friday, 05/09/08 |
|
| |
Dow Jones: |
12,745 |
- 120 |
| |
NASDAQ: |
|
2,445 |
-
5 |
| |
S&P 500: |
|
1,388 |
- 9 |
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Cramer's
Game Plan
For Next Week'
 |
|
. . . .
. |
|
Featured Stock(s): |
Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)
Wal-Mart (WMT)
Deere (DE)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
|
|
|
After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC:
First, on Monday...
after the close there is
McDermott International Inc.
(MDR)...it's
always known as "murder"
on the trading desk...I
don't care one bit about
MDR, but after that last
quarter and the
pre-announcement, it's too
hard to call, they've had
too much disruption in
their coal fire business.
And we know from Ray
Milkovich of
Foster Wheeler (FWLT*),
that the business
domestically has softened.
So why mention MDR at all?
If MDR gets hit, it's
going to take down fellow
infrastructure play FWLT,
and that's going to be a
great buying opportunity.
We know all FWLT
businesses are smoking
other than this coal fire
business, it just
reported, we just talked
of Ray Milkovich?. So, MDR
gets hit, you buy FWLT...
Tuesday: We
got the king. We got
Wal-Mart (WMT).
We like this one very
much. Reporting before the
open, I think the stock is
headed, courtesy of
options expiration, to
$60. That is my target
price for next week. Lee
Scott, by the way, he runs
the best retailer in
America, particularly when
things are tougher. WMT
has gone from worst to
first in our eyes, and we
even shop there now...I
love the price of them.
This is one you buy ahead
of the quarter.
Now, on the flip side,
Liz Claiborne Inc. (LIZ)
reports that day.
LIZ is the quintessential
sell...we don't like it.
We think that turnaround
is years away. We don't
like mid to high end
retail right now, either.
This one is a total cats
and dogs play with way to
much exposure to the big
bad department stores. If
we buy WMT, buy, buy,
buy...and sell LIZ, I
think you're going to make
some real good cash: it's
what is called a pairs
trade.
Wednesday: Before
the open gives us one of
our absolute favorites:
Deere (DE).
This is a 37 billion
dollar company that is in
the sweet spot of the two
biggest shortages of our
time, oil and food.
Farmers love to spend and
we love to give them a lot
of money. They take the
money and by DE. The
dollar is weak, farmers
worldwide buy DE. This is
the premier world wide
manufacturer today with
superior technology and a
superior attitude and
superior state of mind.
This is a great brand
name, and it's doing what
we may do best in this
country, which is making
farm equipment. DE is a
fantastic rest of worlder
with wonderful management.
Sometimes the stock acts
nutty after reports.
Here's what you do. You
buy half your position
before, that's Monday, and
you buy the other half
after, unless the stock is
up so much you can't
reconcile yourself paying
that much because the
stock is up so high.
Business in Latin
America...they just had a
big presentation in Brazil
that was off the charts
with this company...and
ethanol is not going away.
Plantings are up worldwide
because of the great
prices farmers are getting
and they can't do it
without DE. This company
is also a new tech play
because it has got a new
plant that has gotten a
lot of stuff in, loading
proprietary technology
making better, faster,
cheaper farm equipment.
Just remember, half before
the quarter, half after,
unless it's too expensive.
Thursday: From
the farmer to the
Dell...or at least
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ).
I think HPQ will have a
big quarter. Big...
big!... I don't think it
will matter. The upside in
HPQ is always after hours
and then it gives up the
gains. Sell half of your
HPQ before the quarter
reports and then sell the
other half right after.
Mark Hurd, the CEO, is a
miracle worker and the
weak dollar is working
wonder in their bottom
line. HPQ is best of
breed, but it is old
technology and we don't
want old tech. We want you
to ring the register on
this one, some before the
quarter and some after,
it's just too dicey a call
and I think owning the
stock into the summer is
just a beggars bet.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Monday:
Foster Wheeler (FWLT*).
Tuesday is
Wal-Mart (WMT).
Wednesday is
Deere (DE).
Thursday is sell half
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
before, half after.
That's your game plan...
. . . .
.
| |
|
| |
|
■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
|
| |
|
|
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
|

|
FWLT* |
68.97 |
na |
Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)
|
|

|
WMT |
57.18 |
na |
Wal-Mart (WMT)
|
|

|
DE |
86.31 |
na |
Deere (DE)
|
|

|
HPQ |
49.13 |
na |
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
|
Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at
Amazon.com) |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
We need your help!
If you find our service valuable, your
donation is critically helpful to support
our operating costs and is
MUCH appreciated!
(click below to donate) |
We are serving thousands
of
new visitors every day and our costs are
growing as well. Thank you for your
support & generosity!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
|
|
Opening Segment 2
Title: |
'Auto Repair' |
|
. . . .
. |
|
Featured Stock(s): |
Visteon Corp. (VC)
See VC's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
VC
here.
|
|
|
After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC:
I think it's finally ready
to be bought... I think
Visteon Corp. (VC),
which used to stand for
Victim's club, could now
be for Victor's club.
Understand me, VC is a
pure turn around play so
we know they are
inheritantly dangerous.
This company is
restructuring itself.
That's the catalyst.
That's why I'm
recommending an auto parts
play in an environment
where I don't want to go
near the auto parts, other
than the
FORD Preferred (F-PA).
If you remember that
Lear Corp. (LEA)
turnaround which
continues, it started in
2006, I think this could
be the next Leer. VC will
go up for one terribly
unsexy reason, a reason I
typically don't like to
recommend stocks, but for
this group it works. That
is head count reduction.
They're slashing costs and
that boosts the numbers.
But the street is fighting
them tooth and nail.
Last week, VC reported a
spectacular quarter, much
better than expected with
earnings before interest
and taxes a positive 51
million dollars, the
street was looking for a
40 million dollar loss in
earnings before interest
and taxes. The street was
looking for a house of
pain but they got a house
of pleasure. Still, it's a
small number considering
VC 2.86 billion in sales
for the quarter, but the
numbers are improving. The
margins, the company's
profitability is
improving. Gross margins
for the first quarter
actually increased, I
didn't expect this, to
7.1%, from 4.2% last year.
You know what that tells
me? It tells me that the
turn around is working. It
makes me a buyer.
Now of all the bulge
bracket major firms that
cover VC, they've all got
in neutral or a hold,
don't buy, and not one of
them changed their ratings
after this unexpected
quarter. These are all
fighting it. They won't
come around until it's too
late. They are gonna stay
bearish until its bullish
and that's great for you
because when they are
finally forced to come
around the good numbers
from VC, they'll take the
stock even higher and let
you make the great trade.
The expectations from the
street are so low it just
creates a fantastic
opportunity for you to buy
VC and for VC to pull
another upside surprise.
VC is helping them with
lowball guidance. They are
saying we don't know if we
can make it, perfect.
They're saying it's going
to be break even cash flow
for this year. That's so
low even the animals don't
believe in it. VC is
perfect...under promise,
over deliver. The analysts
have been singed, they've
been scalded, they've been
toasted, had third degree
burns on 101% of their
bodies. They don't want to
go positive. But we
haven't been burned, we're
tanned, like Les Moonves,
CEO of
CBS Corporation (CBS).
But we have the edge and
we are saying VC is a buy,
buy, buy.
This company has made
great strides in cutting
costs. It sold 23
unprofitable plants. That
had the added advantage of
removing more than 18,000
expensive union employee
contracts. I love unions,
but on this show I'm
wearing my share holder
hat and I'll take higher
share prices over unions
on any day of the week.
For example, back in Sept
2005, VC sold it's
automotive components
holding business back to
Ford, allowing the company
to rid itself of continued
losses. They also got Ford
to absorb some of their
healthcare liability.
That's huge because the
union healthcare liability
really weighs down on
anything auto. The largest
cost in making an
automobile is healthcare.
VC is focused on building
strong leadership
positions and niche auto
positions: electronics,
climate sensors, interior
parts. VC today is a
smaller, more efficient
company with a more
realistic cost structure
that management believes
will make VC more
profitable by 20 tan,
that's close.
VC has also been
diversifying its sales, it
no longer just relies on
Ford. In 2004 Ford was 70%
of VC sales and by 2007 it
was below 40%. Management
expects Ford to decline to
25% of sales by 2010. Even
though we believe in Ford,
and prefer the preferred
that was issued in 2006.
Sales to GM and Chrysler
were only 4%, so actually
VC could benefit from
increased sales to the
other members of the not
so big anymore three. The
company has substantial
contracts with Hyundai,
that's 15% of sales,
Nissan Murano, 11% of
sales and it's already
established a presence
with the rest of the
world...Asia 5% of revenue
growth in the first
| | | | |