Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Cramer's Game Plan   For Next Week' .  .  .  .  . Featured Stock(s): No specific stock picks. (see all comments above) See Opening Segment 2, below...

After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

        
JJC:    Here's the question... Have we truly bottomed?...  Have we really, at last, hit the bottom?...

That is the subject of the great market debate of 2008.  The bulls and, for now the entire market, are both saying a resounding yes!

On the other hand, there's a hoard of bears, armed with a lot of really negative data that says this is the false bottom.  Me?... Let me tell you where I am, it's where I want you to be, okay...  I'm agnostic.  I'm like Henry Clay looking for a compromise, a little greater than the one he got in 1850, or for the younger demo... I'm for play-doh.  I'm trying to be flexible and pliable...

If you rely on stocks to forecast what comes next, it's hard not to at least entertain the possibility of a real bottom. The combination of the steadfast refusal of the homebuilders to go down, no matter what's been thrown at them... Or how about the better than expected retail sales...that wasn't supposed to happen right?  When we pay four and a quarter at the pump, aren't we supposed to stop shopping?  How about the strength of the transports? Shouldn't transports of goods drop? 

How about the conclusion of the Clear Channel (CCU) deal?..  I mean no one thought that possibly could happen. 

All of these things come together and say, "this is a bottom"...

The fact that the PHLX Housing Sector Index (^HGX) - the homebuilding index - simply will not go down, even though the homebuilders keep spewing awful numbers that just can't be fathomed.  Well, how about guys violating their debt covenants... it's like it's Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF)... despite the bad loans, the lack of mortgage money... that may be, again, an evidence of a real bottom.  When you get bad news and it doesn't go down, that's a bottom.

The rally today off a bad opening on bad news like consumer confidence... which is as low as when Jimmy Carter was president, wearing that cardigan sweater... that's classic bull market activity...

People are accumulating the homebuilders, the very group whose signal even caused the downturn, because home prices are finally showing some indication that they could stabilize. When the homebuilders are forced to sell homes at a discount - as Toll Brothers (TOL) was this quarter, taking no gains on homes - you remove the excess inventory and, when you do that, you stabilize pricing.  And we know this because that's exactly what happened in western Florida.  That was the first area hit by the downturn.  It's now come full circle, it's strong... We know that because Bob Toll told us right here on Mad Money earlier in the week...   You see, the lack of inventory brings out buyers... and that causes your bottom. And that's even more likely to happen with the intervention of the government. You know my plan... that was to spend $200-300 billion to allow the FHA to guarantee loans.  That way we can keep people in their homes, rather than evict them.  We stop house price depreciation, we bottom.

Then again, the feds could destroy everything... everything, if they give the home builders a tax rebate.  Then the homebuilders will stop cleaning out their inventory, stop the firesale... and then we won't get the bottom.  That ridiculous gift to the homebuilders must be stopped. The senate, where Chris Dodd is pushing to provide real help, obviously matters here. Unfortunately so does the president, whose entirely laissez faire... totally about this issue,  and could become the enemy with the quick stroke of his veto pen.  If only... as Senator Dodd quipped... President Bush had an adjustable rate mortgage on the White House... Then he'd know what kind of problems America's having.

Now, today we got the news that Fannie Mae (FNM) is planning to get rid of the rule requiring down payments on really hard hit areas... Hey, wait a second... that could hurt Fannie Mae, but it sure will clean out more inventory... that's another good sign.

There's one side of the great debate...  On the other side...look...there's a litany...  We hear about it all day... Unemployment is real bad, right... miserable consumer confidence...  we're all just down in the dumps... Sky high oil... I mean, well, what else is new? 

I don't want to take a side here. Lowe's (LOW) reports Monday, Home Depot (HD) reports Tuesday.  If you want a good tell for which side is right, these two companies would sell products that you use when you buy a home or fix it up to sell... they're it.

If they have good numbers, then I think that you're gonna hear a lot more next week about the bottom, and the potential rallying in what's known as the early-cycle plays like the homebuilders... it will be for real.  This group will go up big next week.

Now I don't know about LOW or HD will report... To me, betting on the bullish side is not my game... it shouldn't be yours... especially not after a big up week like this one...

I'm not betting on either bulls or the bears on this issue... Let me tell you how I want to play it... I'm saying something completely different, and probably much more relevant than that tug-of-war that you hear every day when you watch our network. The fact that we're even having this debate about whether this is a real bottom or, if we have worse to come, that's a good thing in and of itself, making everything better. I do not know if we've bottomed...

I mean, look... I'm an old guy now... I've made a lot of mistakes... One of them would be uberous to say that we've bottomed.  I do think that, after the Bear Stearns (BSC) debacle, things have been better... but I'm sticking with the same themes that have been working for us - for you and me - and will keep working... bottom or no bottom.

I'm sticking with international infrastructure, oil and gas and alternatives like wind, solar, agriculture... I'm sticking with minerals and mining, made more pertinent by the Chinese (earthquake) tragedy...  The defense stocks, as both candidates favor strong defense, although Alliant Techsystems Inc. (ATK), the dealer in lead... might suffer under Obama.

These are my long-term, multi-year themes.  It doesn't matter who's president... it doesn't matter whether the bulls win or the bears win in consumer confidence...  These are the ones that I am reiterating, in one form or another, every night here... Some nights with Transocean Inc. (RIG), some nights with National Oilwell Varco (NOV*), which I own for my charitable trust...  some nights with Agrium (AGU) or CVRD (RIO) or Apache (APA)... did you see that one today?... or Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)... I own that one too for the trust... or General Dynamics (GD) or Trinity (TRN)...  Regular viewers know my buy list, even as the academics and journalists systematically ignore it... 

These big things... they don't need a bottom in retail or homebuilding, or a top in oil...  They don't even need help from Washington... Plus, "new tech"... you know I like that, that is something I've been drilling into your head now for two weeks... real companies that make real solutions to save precious resources like water and air and oil... they're rocketing... leaving behind the "old tech" which makes felonious video games...