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Monday, 05/19/08
Posted 05/19/08, 9:01
pm ET |
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below) |
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Today's date:
Monday, 05/19/08 |
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Dow Jones: |
13,028 |
+
41 |
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NASDAQ: |
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2,516 |
- 12 |
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S&P 500: |
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1,426 |
+ 1 |
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Opening Segment 1
Title: |
'Bullet Points' |
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Altria (MO*)
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*)
Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)
Transocean Inc. (RIG)
MedcoHealth Solutions Inc.
(MHS)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC:
Remember when the market
was going to brutalize
anyone who came near
it?... Way back...
way back on November 8th...
That's when I created a
Kevlar portfolio for
you... Of course,
nonsensically at the time,
I called it my bulletproof
portfolio... pretty
bone-headed... as there's
no such thing as a
bulletproof stock or
company... but there are
companies with Kevlar...
or, to simulate it
further, Timex
companies... that take a
licking and keep on
ticking...
I picked five stocks and
called them bulletproof...
so, of course, within a
week, they were down 6% on
average, compared to down
1.6% for the S&P 500...
and I know that you
probably gave up on me,
and them. At the time, I
felt like a complete
idiot... I mean, I got
more hate mail for these
stocks, than for about
anything I have ever
done...
But the critics missed the
point...
When you wear Kevlar, and
you get shot, you do fall
over. I mean, that's what
had to happen to many of
these stocks... They got
hit, and then they fell
hard. That first week, I
felt dumb... I should have
been aggressively telling
you to buy for the simple
reason that they'd get
back up! That was the
point!... that, when
they'd get hit, they'd
come back... Not like the
financials, not like the
retailers... those never
come back.
You buy Kevlar stocks,
when you get nicked... if
you want a chance to make
a fistful of dollars...
Because, in a month of
those companies of Kevlar
were up an average of 4%,
with the S&P 500 up 2%...
and now that we're
slightly more than six
months in, my
Kevlar-coated stocks are
up an average of 8.8%,
with the S&P 500 down
3.3%... This is wide-out
performance, okay...
I think it's time to
declare victory, and ask
if these stocks still have
the Kevlar advantage of
great fundamentals...
All right, first,
there's Altria... The
successful breakup into
domestic and
international... That's
Altria (MO*)
and
Philip Morris International
(PM*)...
This one's already
yielding early positive
returns. Together, the
two stocks are up 4.7%,
since I created the
Kevlar portfolio... The
domestic business turned
out to be totally
insensitive to the
economy so far, because
the 5% yield on MO* has
kept the stock from
going down, and the
company managed to raise
the price of Marlboros,
and didn't take a hit...
The international
business has been one of
the biggest
beneficiaries of the
weak dollar, and it
looks like it still has
great growth trends... I
gave this stock my
highest endorsement. I
bought some more of it
for
my charitable trust, after the
spinoff... right about
the time when a lot of
people sent me a lot of
hate mail, saying that
one wasn't doing
anything... The lack of
patience that people
have with these Kevlar
stocks is remarkable...
My next Kevlar stock was
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*)...
Remember, we called it
the year of mining
dangerously?... It's up
11.9%, since I created
the Kevlar portfolio.
The story here is short
and sweet... This is the
best copper story in the
world. Copper is in
short supply. There
haven't been any new
discoveries. Endless
labor problems in Chile
have helped keep the
price of copper high...
and, I've got to tell
you, those labor
problems never seem to
be going away...
The huge earthquake in
China, and the need for
a subsequent rebuild,
has boosted FCX*'s
business... If the U.S.
housing market ever
returns to health, I
mean, this one's going
to go through the roof!
I anticipated that
housing would be bad,
but I believed that FCX*
would have Kevlar
anyway... Here's another
stock that I bought more
of - when it got
hammered -
my charitable trust...
Still one more...
Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)...
Okay, maybe a little
disappointing... down
1%...
This is one that is a
key part of the Kevlar
portfolio, because it's
still my favorite
infrastructure stock,
even after the ramp that
it has had... It's
levered to higher energy
prices worldwide... very
little to do with
municipalities, which
has been the kiss of
death for
infrastructure...
This one survived the
big dip that apparently
turned out to be a
completely false read of
FWLT*'s health... But
the company assured us
on Mad Money, going so
far as to visit in
person, and gave us the
confidence we needed...
Ray Milkovich (CEO) came
on... I bought more
FWLT* when it dipped,
because the dip was for
no reason... It doesn't
matter... It had
Kevlar...
Transocean Inc. (RIG)...
I mean, this one is
monster... It is up
27.6%, since I invited
it to the Kevlar club...
The largest, best
deep-water contract
driller in the world.
When I said RIG was
bulletproof, I was
talking about its
earnings visibility...
meaning how accurately
you can predict what
your company will earn
in years and years and
years... well, let's
just say, usually 3-5
(years out)...
Now, if you've got
visibility, you're
generally less dependent
on the vicissitudes of
the current economy, and
that's precisely what
RIG is seeing through
2012...
You see, Brazil wants
80% of the biggest rigs
for the biggest oil find
in 30 years in the
entire world... and all
the rigs it needs are
deep-water... I think
that means, now, that
RIG will have orders
through 2015...
I did sell this
Kevlar-coated stock for
the trust... But
that's because I had a
double... I was feeling
really greedy...
Remember what we always
say in Cramerica...
Bulls make money, bears
make money, and hogs get
slaughtered. I had been
a hog. Still... I wish I
hadn't done it... The
stock went much
higher...
And, finally...
controversially...
MedcoHealth Solutions Inc.
(MHS)...
the only company in
Kevlar that fits the
traditional idea of a
defensive stock, like
drugs and foods... the
ones that were meant to
be Kevlar-coated, but I
told you weren't
anymore, because of raw
costs...
You're supposed to buy
stocks like MHS. Those
were old defense stocks.
They're not working... I
mean, you can take a
look... MHS did
nothing... it did
nothing, okay... MHS was
the only company in the
Kevlar list that I
created that really
doesn't make money, if
the economy... it
doesn't matter how
strong the economy is...
MHS makes its biggest
money as drugs come off
patent... and it gets
better margins when it
sells generics.
But, unlike RIG, MHS has
been hurt... because its
visibility only goes out
as far as 2012, which is
when a lot of the good
drugs go off patent.
After that, there aren't
that many drugs expected
to go off patent, and
there's more competition
than I thought to MHS.
The other four Kevlar
stocks really don't have
a lot of competition...
I mean, think about
it...
Altria (MO*)
is
pants-ing all the competition... We saw a good
research report our
Friday, talking about
market share...
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*)?
I don't know... there's
really no American
competition for
copper...
Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)?
No one is really in
these things, other than
Fluor (FLR),
and you know how high
that went...
Transocean Inc. (RIG)?
The only other guy that
really competed against
them was GlobalSantaFe,
and RIG bought them...
MedcoHealth Solutions Inc.
(MHS)...
There's a bunch of
companies in there.
Should it have been in
the Kevlar portfolio? I
think that what happened
there, is that I felt
like I had to have one
traditional defensive,
and that turned out to
be wrong. I'm hesitant
to keep calling MHS a
company in Kevlar... I
think, if it rallies,
I'd sell it...
The Bottom Line!:
The Kevlar portfolio
worked! It's up
almost 9%, while the S&P
500 is down 3.3%.
Some of these stocks got
knocked down, but I want
you to think about the
mammoth no-name the next
time that happens, okay...
they get up again.
And that's why we like
Kevlar stocks. They
have big themes that mean,
like Clint - like the man
with no name - they have
the capacity to recover...
even if any of the bad
guys shoots them.
. . . .
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■ |
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above |
■ |
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price
that
day |
Opening
price
next
day |
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each) |
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MO* |
22.56 |
na |
Altria (MO*)
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FCX* |
124.83 |
na |
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*)
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FWLT* |
76.81 |
na |
Foster Wheeler (FWLT*)
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RIG |
161.39 |
na |
Transocean Inc. (RIG)
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MHS |
48.74 |
na |
MedcoHealth Solutions Inc.
(MHS)
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See all of tonight's stocks'
latest quotes on
Yahoo! Finance |
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Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at
Amazon.com) |
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Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!
See Ken Heebner's CGM
Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No.
3 Top-Performing Mutual
Fund in 2007
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Opening Segment 2
Title: |
'Wind Wind
Situation' |
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. . . .
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Featured Stock(s): |
Thomas & Betts
Corp. (TNB)
See TNB's official
website
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
TNB
here.
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here... |
JJC: In
the old days, technology
companies used to be run
by engineers... guys who
would profit by solving
the most important
problems of the day...
Now, most of what we
consider tech is about
designing dazzling video
games... or creating
software that makes
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