Tuesday, 05/20/08
Posted 05/20/08,  8:22 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Tuesday, 05/20/08

  Dow Jones: 12,828 -  199
  NASDAQ:   2,492  -  23
  S&P 500:   1,413  -  13
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'The Big New Tech Ten'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): General comments about "New Tech"

No specific stock picks.




See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

        
JJC:    What do you do on a day like today?...  When the market's down about 200... and smacks you around so hard, you prefer a nice vacation... to the shellacking you're out there getting...

Do you panic?...  One course of action, but nobody ever made a dime panicking... one of my many rules, by the way, that you'll find in the original Cramer gospel, Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing In An Insane World.

No...  On bad days, we do one thing...   We go back to long-lasting, long-term themes... 

.  .  .  .  .

You know the themes... you've been there with us... We like agriculture... oil and gas... infrastructure... minerals... aerospace... all of which do better, as oil rises, and gets closer to my price target of $150 smackers a barrel...

These are the themes that will let you sleep at night, and not have nightmares about all the red that's on the tape today. I bet you would have almost broken even today, if you'd just followed the themes...

You know what they do... they let you buy at cheaper prices. Not sell low, after buying high...

Today, I'm adding a new theme to the list... one that I wish I had before I wrote my last book... because it's one that's kind of come to me, over the course since we started our fourth year on Mad Money... It's one we've talked about lately... but, today, right here... it's joining the pantheon of big themes... the ones you always have to go back to, after a bad day... and it is... "new tech"...

Now, I've given you "new tech" stocks by the dozens... You know, Eaton (ETN) and Emerson Electric (EMR)... First Solar (FSLR), Parker Hannifin (PH), Cummins (CMI)... The list goes on and on...

But, today, I want to take a step back, and truly define what makes a new technology company, so you can help me find new technology companies... not just what separates the "new tech" from the "old tech"... You know, the Cisco (
CSCO)s, the Intel (INTC)s and the Take-Two (TTWO)s of the world... that only care about better gadgets, or better felon training software... that is, Grand Theft Auto... or stuff that helps your employees sell four more gizmos than the other guy...

So what defines "new tech?"... I've been focusing a lot on industrial manufacturers that invent things that solve the world's problems... But not every smokestack stock deserves the "new tech" mantle... These are the companies that are engineering solutions to the long-term, big-picture problems of the entire world... They're profitable do-gooders... but only because, as the "old tech" companies used to understand, solving problems is where the money is.
 

.  .  .  .  .

But which problems?...

There's a great chart, from Dr. R.E. Smalley, at Rice University, listing 10 needs of humanity over the next 50 years... These define what I am talking about, when I say "new tech"... and that "new tech" is addressing the important issues of the era... You are "new tech" if you're developing new solutions, engineering new products that help meet these ten needs... So, here's the list...

[Jim then listed his "Top 10 Needs of Humanity - for the next 50 years", as shown below]

Energy.
Creating more of it, using it more efficiently... something almost all of my picks have in common, because I've been focusing on energy almost forever... Eaton (ETN) and Emerson Electric (EMR) are two good examples.

Food.
You can think of Deere (DE) as a "new tech" stock, or Monsanto (MON)... I'm trying to rationalize how Agrium (AGU) or Mosaic (MOS) can be, because they're really just fertilizer makers... but there's tech involved there too, but I'm not going to give them that much credit. MON and DE are innovating to make it easier to make more food with greater efficiency. Count DuPont (DD) in there too. Maybe Bunge (BG) and Syngenta (SYT) in Europe.

Water.
This will be the next great shortage after oil... which is ironic that ethanol uses a gigantic amount of water... another reason not to like ethanol... And any company that's making products that improve our use of water... recycling it, improving it, or decayed domestic water infrastructure... well, they're all "new tech." I've been using Tetra Tech (TTEK). That's a great example.

Environment.
I've given you lots of these. These are companies that control and reduce carbon emissions and make cleaner energy. I want you to think about Cummins (CMI), or Owens Corning (OC)... They're all "new tech"...

Poverty.
This one should encourage you to get creative... but, yes, companies that are focusing on making the bare necessities cheaper, and more cheaply, are part of the solution. I'm working on good stocks to meet the poverty challenge. I am not confident enough to reveal them yet to you.

Terrorism/War.
That puts a lot of the defense stocks that we've liked forever... that's one of our five themes... into the "new tech" category... Today, Raytheon (RTN*), which I own for my charitable trust, was down almost a dollar... That makes it cheaper... You know General Dynamics (GD) has long been a favorite here.

Disease.
Yes, those who can make more efficient and effective medical technology... particularly diagnostics, okay... Those are companies that are the arms dealers to biotech. These all fit the "new tech" rubric... I like Thermo Fisher (TMO) for that but, again, it's a work-in-progress for me...

Education.
Now, I've yet to find a good "new tech" stock that fits... I thought I had one yesterday, and then the Justice department opened an investigation against it, so that wasn't right... Now, I've got some in mind that could pan out in the not-too-distant future though... These are companies that give people the skills they need to address all the other problems on the list...

Democracy.
I know it sounds a little silly, but there's a lot of infrastructure you need on the ground before you can get a functioning democracy... something we learned in Iraq... and any company that's improving the technology, that creates the conditions for democracy... for a functioning state that's stable enough for a democratic government... well, you put a lot of infrastructure stocks in this category, and they deserve to be called "new tech"...

Population.
Right now, there are 6.3 billion people on earth... In 2050, they will be 8-10 billion... And all the companies that are making it possible to support this population growth, and the ones that help slow it, also fall into "new tech"... I'm working on hygiene stories, just so you know, to meet that need.

.  .  .  .  .


This is my playbook for the next, I don't know, five years of Mad Money... That's how vital I think the needs to humanity are...

When I ran my hedge fund, there was a great guy, Bob Farrell at Merrill Lynch... He identified major themes, and then fit the recommended list to it. It was the most effective thing I've ever seen in my whole research career. I'm trying to duplicate that right here with these top 10 needs of humanity.

These are the 10 big needs. Any company that's innovating, that's applying technology to help meet these needs, belongs to the "new tech" family, and will be featured right here...

Vital, unmet needs do not include internet security; cooler, hotter cell phones with different colors; smaller cameras; bigger TV screens... Yet that's the standard definition when I hear "tech"... What everyone else says is tech, I say is "old tech"...

We will visit all of these unmet needs, and pick stocks that meet them, over and over and over again... Why?... Because, when the market is down horribly, like it was today, you need themes to backstop you... to let you say, you know what... I don't mind buying more of it. These themes aren't going away. They are 50-year themes... And (these themes) allow you to buy more, rather than to cut and run...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Now you know what defines "new tech"... when I come in here and say Emerson Electric (EMR) is a "new tech" story... or Eaton Corp. (ETN) is a "new tech" story... The 10 unmet needs of humanity... And now tech is part of the pantheon of ag, oil, minerals, infrastructure, aerospace, and defense... the groups of stocks that you buy for less, on a down day, because you believe they've got a great theme, a powerful theme... These stocks, when they go down, are actually cheaper, and the themes will take them higher eventually...

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


na

na

na

General comments about "New Tech"

No specific stock picks.



 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Second Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'Navistar Sighting'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Navistar International Corp. (NAVZ.PK)

See NAVZ.PK's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for NAVZ.PK here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


JJC:    I've been preaching the gospel of "new tech"...  the mostly industrial companies that are innovating, to create technology that solves real problems... not just also-ran chip makers that let you get sleeker cell phones...

And, in keeping with that, I've got a classic "new tech" stock... a company that was "new tech" at the turn of the century...  the previous century... with the original McCormick Harvester... and is now "new tech" once again, at the turn of the 21st century...

And that company is...  Navistar International Corp. (NAVZ.PK)...

Think about it for a second... At one time, tech tackled world hunger, right... at the turn of the 20th century... Now we think of tech as tackling the desperate need to trump Guitar Hero with Rock Band II...

Navistar is not like that. It's like the original Harvester... new tech then, and new tech now...

Navistar is our "new tech" truck and school bus company... the education part of the list...

The company has 60% market share in school buses... but that's not what we're excited about... It's got 38% share in Class 6 and Class 7 trucks, and 26% share in Class 8 trucks... the big guys...

.  .  .  .  .


But Navistar is not a keep-on-trucking kind of company... They're a keep-on-trucking-more-efficiently-with-fewer-emissions kind of company.

Other than Cummins (CMI), Navistar is the leader in fuel efficient engines. Remember our themes... If you can cut back the use of energy, you're a winner... This sets it apart from other truck makers that are just plain old smokestack industrial stocks with no "new tech" component...

Navistar has plenty of new tech...

This was first company to enter production of hybrid commercial trucks and school buses. Hybrids work... big cutbacks in emissions. It's got all kinds of environmentally-friendly power-saving products... An auxiliary power unit that's designed to help trucks produce power without idling the engine... And this is a huge one... Navistar has a line of MaxForce diesel engines that are supposed to save 9-13% of fuel, compared to similar non-fuel efficient engines...

.  .  .  .  .


I also want to throw in that Navistar has a very strong military business... The company thinks it could become a $2 billion business for them. You know what they make is the MRAPs - those mine-resistant vehicles... along with tactical and support vehicles. By fiscal 2009, Navistar expects $15 billion in sales and $1.6 billion in profit.

They have a parts revenue of $2 billion... Once you buy their product, you have to buy the replacement parts to keep it going... It should be a great source of recurring business...

.  .  .  .  .


Now, Navistar is more than just a "new tech" story. It's also a company getting its act together... This is really important... because you have no idea how much of a catalyst the next element of this story is going to be...

Navistar was de-listed from the New York Stock Exchange, back in 2005... some accounting issues... they're behind them. It will soon be eligible to be re-listed. I think that's going to produce a huge gain.

Listen... I recommended this stock on September 25th of last year, because it was set to start filing restated financials on October 25th... That was a promise the company fulfilled. That's when it started filing... The stock was at $60 bucks then, okay... and now it's trading at $68.70, giving you a 14% gain, if you got in on my recommendation... The market's done horribly. This has done much better.

See, Navistar got de-listed from the New York Stock Exchange, because it screwed up the financials. But, once it files its 10-K for 2007 - which I think could happen any week now - it's going to be eligible to be re-listed on the New York Stock Exchange. That will bring in a lot of institutional money, that takes a stock up when they want to get in. That money is staying away from the stock, because it's on the bulletin board right now...

You see, now this stock is toxic... because lots of funds can't own the stocks that don't have up-to-date financials. Navistar is a pariah, a leper... the way Terex (TEX) - a Cramer-fave construction equipment company - was not that long ago, when it wasn't up-to-date with its filings. That's another name that I pushed hard for you, saying the financials were about to be filed.

You caught a double when TEX finally put their accounting problems behind them. I think you can do the same with Navistar...

Plus, I think Navistar would make a great acquisition candidate, once it has up-to-date financials. It makes tons of sense, as part of a larger industrial company. Again, that will not happen until its 10-K gets filed. It's too risky for an acquirer to buy a company that doesn't have current financials.

.  .  .  .  .

All right, let's talk about price targets... where this thing could go...

Right now, Navistar's trading at a pathetically small 7.7x expected 2009 earnings. That is ridiculous!   Paccar (PCAR)... the same business... hasn't been de-listed, and trades at 11.6x forward earnings... So, in other words, you get this thing to file, and I think it's every bit as good as PCAR, if not better.

Now, if Navistar got Paccar (PCAR)'s valuation... (the stock price would be) $104... That would give us a 51% gain. Give it a 10% discount to PCAR... The stock would still go to $94... a 37% gain.

I don't even want to tell you what Navistar would be worth if you gave it the multiple of a great company like Cummins (CMI)... I'm not even going to tell you, okay... because you wouldn't believe me if I said $135... a double... so there's no way I will share that with you... I promise... You will never, ever hear that $135 number from my lips...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Navistar International Corp. (NAVZ.PK) is a classic "new tech" company, with a great catalyst, that should send the stock much higher. I think it's too cheap. I nailed it once. I think I'm nailing it again... I think you should get in, before it becomes expensive, when the paperwork problems get cured.

 

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


NAVZ.PK

68.70

na

Navistar International Corp. (NAVZ.PK)

         

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
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StockHomework101.com

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