Friday, 06/06/08
Posted 06/08/08,  12:28 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Friday, 06/06/08

  Dow Jones: 12,209  - 394
  NASDAQ:   2,474   - 75
  S&P 500:   1,360   - 43
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Cramer's Game Plan
  For Next Week'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Wal-Mart (WMT*)

Brown-Forman Corporation
(BF-B)

Copart Inc.
(CPRT)

Integra Lifesciences
(IART)


See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

        
JJC:    I know...  I know today was really bad...  I know today was one of the worst days in a long time. It's a cheap alcohol on my very own dirty linoleum floor day, if there ever was one.

A down 395 day can really make you feel desperate and bearish and hopeless...

But there is hope, and that's why I'm here. I know when it gets this awful you wanna give up or panic or just scream and pull your hair out...believe me, I sympathize, days like today are the reasons why all my hair fell out...I still have some here but I guess it has to be down-800 to make that go away...

This may be the fifth end of the world day we've seen just in this very 18 months. But with oil prices so high and the regional banks looking like they're rolling over like dominoes, it's not hard to believe that it really might happen this time around.

At these moments I know many of you turn off the TV...you want to give up. Right now it's easy to say it will never get better...that you just can't make money in the market any more...that it's too painful...

Today's market did this to any sense of bullishness out there (puts out cigarette and steps on bull with foot)...but I still believe that there is always a bull market somewhere...

I think this moment's a terrible time for you to abandon ship, however emotionally difficult that may be to accept. And remember, do some arithmetic.  Average in yesterday's fantastic gain with today's horrid losses, and you have it down-200 day in 48 hours...not even a sharp stick in the eye.

I've got to tell you, the spike of $10.75 in oil...even I was freaked out by it...that is, unless you're a huge believer in usual suspects... And we continue to suggest you round them up... on any weakness...and you didn't get any (weakness) today, even down 400 points...

Natural gas?... Most of them up, because it is the year of natural gas.

Agriculture?...  Because seeds are our best long-term hope for renewable energy...even though we hate ethanol...every time Monsanto (MON) comes up with a new seed, it's like a giant oil find.

Minerals, coal, copper all pretty much up or flat...

And finally, of course, the drillers, which remain our very faves.

Everyone else is showing you the lowlights of today, they're running lowlight films of the patch with guys screaming over there...  lowlight films of the Israeli, Iran thing...

I want to show you the stocks that I think will be the highlights...not today, but for next week, so you can still make money off them...   Because, after a huge sell off, you get a short-term buying opportunity...  in one particular group of stocks...the stocks that would have gone much higher if it were not for this overall market selloff based on weak financials, and oil spiking, and worries about a potential conflict in the Middle East...  And these could go to where they should have been this week, maybe over the next month, if recent history repeats itself.

These wondrous stocks, that can buck today's bearishness, where are they?...

They're the companies that this very week reported the biggest beats of the estimates... the ones that far exceeded expectations, but their stocks were held back or taken down hard by the general tide of oil-related negativity, even as not one of them had anything to do, or had their sales curtailed, by higher oil. 

That's why I'm offering you a game plan for next week...

I want you to pick among the bearish rubble to find the high-quality bullish stocks that would have gone higher if it were not for this dreaded decline...

I've got four stocks that fit the bill for what I suspect will be a hard opening on Monday...   You'll get your prices...don't be aggressive...don't buy after the close...   Don't do any of those stupid things like I saw, by the way, in Windstream Corporation (WIN) last night.

Alright, now just to remind you that we actually have a little rigor on this show...that I'm not just pulling all this out of a bull's mouth...  How about a little proof that our picking-among-the-rubble methodology works...  that you should be looking for buys right now, in the wake of this sickening decline?...

After the enormous sell off in the week of March 2007... that was nasty... I recommended a series of stocks during the week of March 6th...  It felt a lot like today... stocks that I felt would have been up big if not for the whole market taking a beating..  I felt they would have been up big because, like these four I'm about to give you, these companies reported huge estimate beats just the very week they were obscured by the market.   They were General Cable Corp. (BGC), Chemed Corp. (CHE), First Solar (FSLR), and Akamai (AKAM)...

Do you know what these stocks were even with this horrible market last year and this horrible market now...do you know what these stocks were a month later?   They were up an average of 16.4%, which more than tripled the performance of the S&P over that same period. 

It worked then, and I believe it will work again now...

.  .  .  .  .

I've got four stocks I think you should be buying next week, maybe right into a bearish opening...  as "picking through the rubble" plays, these are your game plan...

The first, and this the most obvious one, the one... the one that you got a total break on today that I didn't think you deserved to get, because I know you're a naysayer about the store... The first is Wal-Mart (WMT*)...which reported strong may same-store sales just reported the other day... driven by some of the $600 tax rebates, grocery store sales, but mostly because of it's remodeling, it's more aggressive CEO Lee Scott, and yes, the cheapest pricing in the world.

Yes, WMT is a trade-down play in a weak economy when people are trying to save money and spend less. WMT is where they go. They beat by a penny on May 13th, and the international business is expanding with plans to enter Russia. You know that the Russian department stores won't hold a candle to even this WalMart.

Before WMT beat earnings, the stock was at $58 bucks.  Now, with the stock at $58.37, after falling 2.3% today, you're getting what I think is a "buy, buy, buy!" opportunity.  At a price that's barely above where the stock was before they reported that blowout month, come on... that's a steal!  Oh and, by the way, with $4 gasoline going to five bucks, where you know that's headed... I'm switching to WalMart shopping too, and WalMart has gotten more fun to shop at lately, I kid you not...  Lee Scott has got the place feeling down right "Target-ish."

.  .  .  .  .


The second stock I'm recommending is a familiar name and the name is Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B), which beat by 12 cents, a 17% upside surprise when it reported yesterday, but everyone immediately forgot that Jack Daniels, Southern Comfort and Finlandia Vodka just gave you a fantastic earnings report.  These are all indeed all the necessities to have on a dirty linoleum floor if you were down-395 day.

It's international that's growing...  Jack grew in the high single digits overseas. This is the sheik brand.  I can tell you in all the bars that I cruise... people actually say, "give me Jack Daniels"...  When I went in, it was just like give me a bourbon. Now they identify it by name, some of them just call it Jack like he's their buddy-pal, friend. Brown Forman now gets half of its earnings from ROW...the rest of the world, I think it can go higher, as it increases it's international sales, especially now with the weak dollar helping, and it's new marketing and sales strategies stabilizing it's U.S. business. I still don't see a lot of people ordering Chinese bourbon or Indian bourbon, they just don't. They drink American bourbon.

The stock is down 1.5% today but still up 7.1% from where it reported. I believe it would have gone much higher today, not lower, if not for the selloff. You don't drink less liquor in hard times, you drink more hard liquor and Brown Foreman is your HQ.

Oh and by the way, just so we're at it, I like the Herradura...  lately it's become my tequila of choice.

.  .  .  .  .


The third stock I've picked out from this rubble is Copart Inc. (CPRT).  This is the company that makes money off of salvaging cars and other vehicles.  It beat by four cents what it reported after the bell Tuesday...8% upside surprise...  It was down 1.7% today... and it is up 5.9% from Tuesday's close...you're not going to get this one below where it reported, that's not going to happen.  It's up 16.3% from when we had CPRT's CEO on April 23rd...and up 30% since I first recommended it.

I think CPRT can keep going higher because it's a scrap play...strong steel prices... you need scrap...that's why Nucor (NUE) made their big acquisition... Everyone needs scrap, scrap...and because the company's expanding...  It's scheduled to add 10-15 locations to North America over the next year...that will let it collect more salvage cars, lower towing costs. This is the single best play on the steel shortages that I know of.

.  .  .  .  .


Finally, I like Integra Lifesciences (IART). This is a new name for me, I have not talked about it before...it's symbol is IART.  This is a surgical implant medical device stock. It beat it's earning estimates by nine cents when it reported on Wednesday.  That's a mega 22% upside surprise.  The stock is only down 10 cents today... it's only up 27 cents since it reported... That's ridiculous.

Integra is a demographic play, it makes neurosurgical and orthopedic implants, 37% of its business... which I'm sure are going to be in higher demand as my generation ages.  It also looks like a great obesity play, as it makes spinal implants... and heavier people tend to have more back problems. You don't stop trying to alleviate pain just because the economy's slumping or gasoline is at five bucks. 

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      After a big down day, I am urging you to get off your dirty linoleum floor...  Don't get discouraged.  Look for good deals... companies you can get on the cheap, thanks to the negative action.   Pick among the rubble...  find the bull market with me... and maybe do some homework over the weekend to buy Wal-Mart (WMT*), Brown-Forman (BF-B), Copart (CPRT), or Integra Lifesciences (IART)...  particularly if they open down next week.   And remember... these companies can't disappoint their earnings.  They just reported them!

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


WMT*

58.37

58.98

Wal-Mart (WMT*)



BF-B

77.25

77.41

Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B)



CPRT

47.01

47.98

Copart Inc. (CPRT)



IART

42.80

43.27

Integra Lifesciences (IART)


 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at Amazon.com)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 


We need your help!
If you find our service valuable, your donation is critically helpful to support
our operating costs and is MUCH appreciated!
(click below to donate)

We are serving thousands of new visitors every day and our costs are growing as well.  Thank you for your support & generosity!


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 
 
 
 

Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!  See Ken Heebner's CGM Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No. 3 Top-Performing Mutual Fund in 2007


 
 
Second Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'Cool-Aid'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Ingersoll-Rand (IR)

See IR's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for IR here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

 

JJC:   I want you to view the brutal mauling that we took today with the market down 395, not as a reason to feel folded, to feel spindled... to feel mutilated...but as an opportunity actually to buy a great stock...

And that stock is Ingersoll-Rand (IR)... which should have gone higher today...

I mean, you're getting it at a lower price than you should.   Do not get me wrong.  This was a catastrophic day. The house of pain...that's the address...But on big down days what do we do?   Do we jump out the window?...Do we say (train wreck)?...  No, what we look for is good stocks, and we say all aboard...and that's exactly what I think IR is at $42 and change.

Yesterday, IR completed its acquisition of TRANE...the heating ventilation and air conditioning HVAC company...that was the last piece left of the broken up American Standard...thank you Fred Poses for making so much money for everyone...  This is an acquisition that has completed the final step in the transformation of IR for the archetypal cyclical smoke stack stock to a strong economy... that's what it was levered to now...to a well how about a kind of economy we got after today's unemployment number. You know, a stinky one...

Now we have a new technology company that's levered to two of our big man kind saving new tech themes that don't need employment to soar, don't need oil to go down, and those are reducing energy consumption and solving the global famine... the one I believe we sort of had a hand in creating with our stupendously moronic ethanol mandate that trades 30% of our corn which we actually eat for 3% of our gasoline which nobody wants.

It's a kinder, gentler IR and one with better earnings power.  For over a year now, IR has been making this transformation...selling off capitol intensive cyclical divisions, like its road development business and Bobcat...packages construction equipment business that sold for what seems now like an unbelievably great price.  These guys are smart guys...  But the TRANE acquisition was meant to be the grand finale of IR's fantastic transformation...yes the great transformation...

IR should no longer be dependent on a strong domestic economy to do well.  It's not the kind of stock I think you should be selling in fear of a bad unemployment number, or a ten dollar spike in oil...  It's become a much more secular growth new tech play that needs oil to go higher to make the most money.  Believe me, the IR of today would be almost unrecognizable to the IR of a year and a half ago...especially, by the way, to Ingersoll and Rand who are doubtlessly rolling over in their graves.

This year, 67% of IR sales will come from climate control technologies, and most of that is TRANE...  Trane should account for about 46%... just under half of all of IR's full year revenues. When you hear climate control I need you to think use less energy...nice thought with oil at $137 going to Cramer price target $150...   I have to brand these things because, other than bloggingstocks.com, and other people who completely rip me off every day, no one else gives me credit...  Then, industrial technologies should be a mere 18% of IR's sales, and security technologies business is the last 15%...  So, IR is now a climate control company... with a couple of sidelines in industrial tech and security systems.

Why does this matter so much?...

Because there are two global mankind-saving, "new tech" trends that IR is now mostly devoted to addressing...

Now the first one is famine.  Right now in Asia they have a food spoilage rate of about 40% compared 3% in North America and double that in Europe... 6%.

40% of their food in Asia goes bad, and is inedible. That's a huge contributing cause to the global famine... and I'm not talking about the food that is inedible by nature, like the stuff I ate in Paris recently which has too much cream or is too fattening...like the eight pounds I gained in France.  Don't worry, I took it off on the Harry S. Truman, the aircraft carrier/diet machine which has thousands of Stairmasters. 

The solution to the food spoilage problem is the cold chain project, the cold chain project. I want you to think of it like the Silk Road inverse.  Companies are building more and better refrigeration technology across Asia and in other emerging economies to keep food cool and reduce that huge spoilage, which is even worse than what we do with ethanol.  Trane is a big part of that, making devices that monitor and control the temperature of perishable goods while they're being stored and transported.  I want you to think of Trane as the Marco Polo of the cold chain...and now it belongs to IR.

The second "new tech" theme that IR now really can sink its teeth into is the need to replace the installed base of aging and inefficient commercial heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems with modern ones that use much less energy.  This is one of the most efficient, cost-effective ways for those of us in the first world to cut down our carbon emissions.

The combination of Trane with IR's existing climate control business means IR has a lot of exposure to a trend that not a lot of people have recognized yet, but which I believe will be enormous as more and more companies seek to lower their carbon emissions and energy consumption.   And you know, under either Obama or McCain there's bound to be a cap and trade system... this is your play on that... it's going to create even more of an incentive for companies to replace their old HVAC systems with new ones.  

IR was a spewing garomy of carbon...this one is a carbon-saving company...   Get this... If 80% of all commercial HVAC units in the U.S. are due to be replaced between 2010 and 2020, then HVAC sales would be three to four times larger...

I'm giving you all this because on a down day you need grounding...  You can't just say, wait a second, Cramer said to buy IR, and then it opens down a dollar and then you sell IR?... No. This is, what I'm giving you now, is a huge untold story tripled to quadrupled the demand of a product... I don't have a lot of stories like that... 

And now that IR owns Trane, its two thirds climate control its poised to benefit from this coming HVAC replacement cycle.  And then, of course, it's just the plain old ordinary benefits you get from any good acquisition... 

Now, there are low-ball estimates... IR is supposed to save $125 million this year, $300 million by 2010...  I think that's icing on the cake.  I also think those estimates are low. Don't worry... they won't stick those fired employees in thermo king trucks and send them to who knows where...  IR just doesn't have to pull off that, but they will save money from huge head count reductions.  I know, at turn, this sounds much less threatening than layoffs or mass firings.

.  .  .  .  .


The Bottom Line!:
      I think Ingersoll-Rand (IR) is a triple buy... That's right...  On a down day, this stock should have been higher.  It didn't, because the Trane deal just closed.  Buy, buy, buy!...  It's a less-cyclical, "new tech" player that's fighting famine, reducing carbon emissions, and helping us use less energy.   Use the $137 (cost per barrel) oil to buy oil pumpers or oil savers... like the brand spanking new IR.

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


IR

42.70

42.32

Ingersoll-Rand (IR)

         

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
  FastMoneyRecap:   This site will be a quick summary of recommendations made by the great Fast Money TV show crew, that will offer you a unique service, to compare their picks to Jim Cramer's past comments about those stocks.

Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
  © 2005-2007 MadMoneyRecap.com ■ Important disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with Mr. James Cramer, and is not associated with any television networks or broadcasts. Please note that all thumbs up or thumbs down indicators are not always clearly indicated on the show and are interpreted by us as accurately as possible. Some comments have been edited for brevity and clarity, and extraneous material omitted.  Please rely on watching the show yourself, doing your own homework, and reading the text of the comments to draw your own conclusions. Also, data presented on this site should not be used to make investment decisions and accuracy, although attempted, cannot be guaranteed.  Please consult with your own financial advisor for professional advice.
 
 

 

 
       

Feedback   ■   Terms of use   ■   Privacy Policy  ■   Keep this site Free