Thursday, 06/12/08
Posted 06/12/08,  09:08 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 06/12/08

  Dow Jones: 12,141  + 57
  NASDAQ:   2,404  + 10
  S&P 500:   1,339   + 4
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Broad Range'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Range Resources Corp. (RRC)

See RRC's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for RRC here.


See Opening Segment 2, below...
 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

        
JJC:    With oil trading erratically today... at one point, down $3 bucks, and then rallying... which some view as a sign of a top in the petrol stocks... something we here at Mad Money disagree with vehemently...  you now have a great opportunity to get into some of the best plays on high oil.  And, believe me, it will stay high, even with days when it drops - like today - before it rallies.

What, pray tell, is the best way to play high oil?...  I mean, sky-high oil?... ... not just regular, but sky-high?...

Well, you know what we've been doing all week... It's the wildcatters... which is why this is "Wildcat Week" on Mad Money... We're talking about companies that drill for oil and gas in new and unexplored places... including wacky ones like Pennsylvania and Illinois... I mean, places where I didn't think there was any oil.

Today's wildcatter is Range Resources Corp. (RRC)...

This company is believed to be the largest player in the Marcellus Shale... It's definitely the oldest, when it comes to milking these giant Appalachian fields... including the birthplace of where oil was first found in this country... the Keystone State... and the stock made a big move earlier in the year, when the spotlight was entirely on this... okay... entirely on the Marcellus Shale alone...

In fact, at one point, at the end of March, it was the biggest percentage gainer in the whole S&P 500... everything, including the ag stocks...

But, since then, the spotlight's faded, except on Mad Money, and the Street's getting worked up on other plays, like the Bakken Shale and, most recently, the Haynesville Shale... They're attracting the hot money right now.

RRC has pulled back from its high of $76.81, less than a month ago... It's just $64 right now, because of all that attention shifted away from this (Marcellus Shale)...

We don't care, as long as it stays on natural gas, because the spotlight on the fuel of the year in Cramerica has made us a lot of money. We also don't care, because 99% of America doesn't know what shale is, let alone all of these cool shales that will help the dream of energy independence... or, at least, higher stock prices... come true.

But Marcellus Shale is still big... and so is RRC...

.  .  .  .  .

With some of the spotlight off of Marcellus Shale, RRC now has a chance to catch up to the newer, hotter wildcatters that we've been featuring...

It doesn't matter which shale play the Street is salivating over at the moment... What matters is who can find oil and gas, and that's a contest that maybe you should put your money on RRC to win...

2.2 trillion cubic feet of reserves, with another potential 16-21 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Remember, 2008 is the year of natural gas. This is throughout all its properties... 8 to 10 times more than its proven reserves...

.  .  .  .  .


RRC isn't just in Marcellus. It's a big player with exposure all over the place. The Huron Shale... there's another one... This one's in Kentucky, where it could have 0.8 to 1.5 trillion cubic feet... Our old friend, Barnett Shale... it's got 1.4 trillion cubic feet. How about this one?... The Woodford Shale in Oklahoma, with 300 billion cubic feet, plus 400 billion cubic feet in the old-fashioned Permian Basin, which we always knew about... and 200 billion cubic feet in Floyd Shale in Alabama...

Are you getting the picture?... Are any of the politicians getting the picture?... We actually have a lot of natural gas in the country but, no... they're too busy trying to stuff us with ethanol.

RRC has its hand in so many different shales... we call that diversification on this show, and we like it... that I think it's more likely to be successful than a wildcatter with just one or two different prospects, even though we have profiled those this week.

RRC is also a low-cost operator, and this is why you need to focus... because, in the show, the wildcats, the props... everything... is about profits.

It's finding costs are about $1.89 per million cubic feet of natural gas. The industry average is $3.00. We love it when wildcatters can find oil and gas on the cheap, because that just leaves more profits at the end of the day. So let's just do, not the math, but the arithmetic...

You find something at $1.89... you sell it at $12 bucks...

Do you have any companies in your portfolio with that kind of profit margin?... I don't think so.
 

.  .  .  .  .

What else do I like?...

The company has raised its production growth guidance to 19% for the year, from 15%... That's like, when you're on the conference call, saying, listen, we've been saying it's X... It's going to be much better...

It plans double its number of rigs in 2009 from three to six... The Street likes growth wherever it can find it, whether it be new or old tech, or oil and gas. That's what attracts new buyers.

Now get this... RRC did a secondary offering, selling $267 million in stock to fund its land acquisiton in the Marcellus Shale... The offering price was $66.38. Do you know that's higher than RRC is now, which closed at $64 (today)...

At these levels, I've got to tell you, I think this stock is an absolute steal.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Range Resources Corp. (RRC) should never have gotten this cheap.  And, if you want a large, established, now undervalued play for Wildcat Week, RRC is the one for you.

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


RRC

64.04

na

Range Resources Corp. (RRC)


 

 



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Second Segment
 
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'The Sell Block'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): ConAgra (CAG)

See CAG's official website here.

See the Yahoo! Finance profile for CAG here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


JJC:    With my friend, Ben Bernanke (i.e., Fed Chairman) and Hank Paulson, practically quoting Herbert Hoover, saying of course, the worst is over... I defy you to tell me whether Bernanke or Hoover said this: "I am convinced we have now passed the worst and, with continued unity of effort, we shall rapidly recover. There is one certainty of the future of the resources, intelligence and character of the people of the United States... that is, prosperity." Or, who said this: "Any lack of confidence in the economic future or the basic strength of business in the United States is foolish." Yeah, okay... with these guys in full Hoover mode... talking about how the worst is over... When they say that you know the worst is far from over, you know that... you know it's recession time. And, when it's recession time, you want to own recession stocks... the ones that thrive in a bad economy, because they can keep delivering consistent earnings.

.  .  .  .  .


But, more importantly, you have to own the right recession stocks. It's not like the old days, where you could go to the supermarket or the drug store and say everything here gets bought, even in a slowdown.

It doesn't work like that anymore. There are such things that have raw costs that have wrecked that thesis...

And that's what tonight's Sell Block is about...

.  .  .  .  .

Isolating a recession stock... putting it not just in the Sell Block, but in solitary... because we think it's earnings will disappoint.

And the stock... and I say this with trepidation, because me like them... the management of this company... The stock is... ConAgra (CAG).

And you know why... because, obviously, all the things that Cramer eats when he gets home alone on his gigantic linoleum floor... Now, I think you've got to stay away from this stock...

Now, I had Gary Rodkin, the CEO of CAG, on... and I'm clapping for him, because he's a good man, okay... I had him on the show on April 29th, and I endorsed the stock at the time. It was roughly the same price now as it was then, so I've got an opportunity... In other words, it's like the Hippocratic Oath... I haven't done any harm here...

But, since that interview, things seems to have gotten worse for the raw costs for CAG...

.  .  .  .  .

Raw costs for this packaged foods company... which makes a lot of stuff that's wrapped in plastic too... they just keep going higher and higher, and I have a lot of trouble believing that CAG is going to be able to make its numbers. In other words, there are estimates out there that Wall Street creates... I don't know if it can beat them... I don't know if it can make them...

You know, it's actually kind of funny... Back on September 20th, CAG's CEO said, "Inflation input cost is through the roof." He said that on his quarterly conference call. I almost dropped the phone when I heard it, because it's very rare to hear a CEO basically say that something's not that great.

Well, since then, the problem is that costs have gotten even higher...

Corn is 76% more expensive... I want to thank ethanol... and thank the government... so it made it so that corn went to $7 bucks.

How about wheat?... Wheat is up 39% more. Live cattle, 7% more expensive.

.  .  .  .  .

And then, of course, energy costs have ballooned. Oil up 64%... Natural gas up 113%.

From what I can tell, CAG is being eaten alive by raw costs. They have gone higher since the last time they reported, but I don't think the analysts are factoring in these intra-quarter price increases, which we estimate are going to shave $215 million off of the fair value of this company, into the numbers.

In English, I think CAG is going to disappoint us big time.

When you own a stock, and you think the numbers are too high... well, you know what that's like being?... That's like being on the train tracks, and hearing the toot-toot of an oncoming train... You've got to get off the darn tracks!

And that's why I am saying, sell, sell, sell CAG.

.  .  .  .  .

We want to own recession stocks... We want to own the ones that have earnings proof, that are not going to disappoint, because we know that people are still going to go to the store and buy them. But will someone please tell me why we should own a CAG, where I think the earnings are in doubt, because of the costs... and that's being very generous about it...

When Indra Nooyi (CEO) at Pepsi (PEP) has said it's having no trouble making its numbers... and Coke (KO) is telling Wall Street the same, why take the risk with CAG, as the whole group is inexpensive historically... Obviously, CAG is cheaper on what's known as a price-to-earnings multiple, but I think what you want to do is go with safe and solid earnings. KO and PEP has them. CAG doesn't. I'd even prefer General Mills (GIS) to CAG.

And, of course, the cheapest of the recession-proof stocks remains a company that I continue to buy for my charitable trust, and is doing quite well, especially when you lump in the dividend, and that's Altria (MO*)... Cigarette companies... sorry, they have almost no raw costs, and this one has a great dividend... not to mention what looks to be soon like a gigantic buyback.

Remember how institutions think... They want stocks that will allow them to sleep at night, and not wake up the next morning to an earnings shortfall. That's the house of pain.

PEP took fears away that that could happen with their statements on the tape. CAG apparently can't alleviate them, or I think they would have done just what PEP did.

.  .  .  .  .

I want you to swap out of CAG, and into Pepsi (PEP), if you want to own a recession-proof stock. You know, that's what the big boys will be doing. I want you to do it with them.

It's clear to me that Herbert (Hoover) Bernanke and Herbert (Hoover) Paulson... or should it be Ben and Hank Hoover?... are leading us down a path where the recession stocks are essential, now that they're saying everything's turned up. But when you go shopping for them in the supermarket and the pharmacy aisles, stay away from the CAGs... the ones that have seen big intra-quarter increases in raw costs... that means increases between the last time it reported and now... because I really unfortunately believe that CAG will disappoint.

Here's the bottom line...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Recession stocks are going to be in season again, because of Paulson and Bernanke... but not ConAgra (CAG). That's the one I've sentenced to a stay in the 'Sell Block' thanks to increases in raw costs that seem to make it near impossible for this company to meet its earnings estimates, let alone beat them.

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