JJC:    At long last!... At long last, it looks like the tyranny of terrestrial radio may finally come to an end!...  That the FCC will agree to what the Department of Justice's Anti-Trust division ruled in March... that the merger of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) is not monopolistic, and should be allowed to go through!

Now that the chairman of the FCC, Kevin Martin, has expressed his approval for the merger, you'd think it was pretty much of a done deal, right? I'd like to hope so but, if there's one thing I've learned from the saga of SIRI and XMSR, it's that there's always another obstacle lurking... as the opponents of the deal are so entrenched that they're likely to do anything to put a stop to it.

There is no issue I've been more of a crusader on than this one, as this government has allowed so many of what are, in my opinion, anti-competitive deals, through over the last 20 years of laissez-faire anti-trust... Oh, but when it came to SIRI and XMSR... so scary and so dangerous!... All of the sudden, our regulators decided to get tough on anti-trust...

This is a deal that's taken longer... precisely one year and 119 days... had more congressional hearings... four hearings... than what I think was the completely anti-competitive - and you know it, because you pay at the pump - Exxon/Mobil deal... In our infinite wisdom as a government, we thought that Exxon/Mobil was less of a danger to you than XMSR and SIRI... and why?... Because the National Association of Broadcasters, the lobbying arm of terrestrial radio, has been throwing money at congress!... And, in addition, silently blackmailing every elected official with the potential threat of a vocal radio... vocal radio... going against them during the next elections.

All right, don't get me wrong... they're not actually blackmailing anyone, but what congressmen want... What congressman would want the local radio stations to turn against him?... something they could do, if that congressman supports this dreaded, anti-competitive, dangerous deal...

But now... Now everything comes down to five people, step-by-step, inch-by-inch... There are five people. The five members of the FCC (i.e., Federal Communications Commission) and, since we know that Kevin Martin, the chairman, is in favor of the deal, that leaves us with four. We need two more votes in the FCC besides Martin's. And I think it's very doable, given the fact that the FCC is slit 3 to 2, in favor of the GOP...

We've got one vote from the chairman. I'm betting Commissioner Copps - a democrat - votes against, as he has said in the past that he is not convinced the merger should be allowed to proceed. He's irredeemable.

Then there's Commissioner Adelstein... the second democrat... who thinks the FCC should consider the concerns of the State Attorneys General on the deal. Okay, wait a second... I mean, this is the most national deal... XMSR and SIRI, they're nationwide. The federal Justice Department has said it's okay it is nationwide. No... He wants to go with the State Attorneys General. Why not break it down even further... how about getting some input from the mayors?...

Now, there are two likely votes against... but Commissioner McDowell... This guy, well he said the market seems to be larger than just satellite radio... something we've said on this show from (the start)... I mean, he's including iPods, terrestrial radio, CD players... this guy must have kids right... So, he's a likely yes. Commissioner McDowell, you've got horse sense.

Okay, that leaves Commissioner Tate, the woman in the picture, as the arbiter of the fate of this most important deal. Yes... not just the arbiter of this merger because, if it doesn't happen, at least one these companies will go under... probably XM...

All this deal does is insure a viable competitor to terrestrial radio. If anyone's behavior has monopolistic, it's the old-fashioned radio companies trying to destroy a new source of competition.

This is about whether we have satellite radio period, so Commissioner Tate, I beg you... I beseech you... please support this deal! Tate's a republican. I know she wants to do the right thing. We're counting on her to make it happen. If Tate plays ball, then Mel Karmazen (CEO of SIRI) gets this deal done. We're going to see a radical change in the way these companies do business.

The auto companies, for instance... the chief market for satellite radio companies... have pitted these two players against each other mercilessly. So has talent, major league baseball, football, golf and Cramer-fave, Nascar... I think Mel will change all that, paying less for programming and getting more from the auto companies for each satellite radio. Mel is money...

But the real benefits of this deal, in terms of revenue and cost, I expect, are going to come down the road. They don't mean much immediately, because of the three-year (freeze) on prices. No. What matters in the near term is one thing... refinancing. Both companies are always in danger of running out of money and, as separate competitors, it's hard for them to borrow... but the equation changes when SIRI and XMSR merge. Then they can go hat in hand to Wall Street, with a good bond deal that people will no longer worry about defaulting. That's why, combined, these stocks are so good... right here, right now.

There's no quick way to monetize the two companies when they combine though. It isn't a short-term gain. The approval process should boost prices briefly, but the combined Sirius/XM will be a terrific long-term play, a dominant company that will pretty much destroy terrestrial radio. This may be the biggest reason the radio stocks continue to trade down, and CBS continues to be brought down by its radio division...

People hate commercials. They will flock to a viable satellite alternative.

Now here's the bottom line...

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