Friday, 06/27/08
Posted 06/29/08,  11:17 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Friday, 06/27/08

  Dow Jones: 11,346  - 106
  NASDAQ:   2,315    - 5
  S&P 500:   1,278    - 4
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Cramer's Game Plan
  For Next Week'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

BP plc (BP)
Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)
Compagnie Gnrale de Gophysique-Veritas (CGV)
Oceaneering International, Inc. (OII)
FMC Technologies, Inc. (FTI)
Smith International Inc. (SII)


See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

        
JJC:    I'm just glad this down-3% week is over.  Yeah, we had to bring his head out.  Making a statement.  That's the last time you're going to hear bear, or see it.  Anyway, another crummy session behind us, what are you going to do?   We could dwell on it, we could put a lot of decos underneath...  That's the yellow thing underneath.  Or, I say we could focus on what's going to happen...  What's going to happen next, not what happened already...  That doesn't make you money.  Next week is a shortened week.  Thank heavens.  This market needs to catch its breath.  The declines have been brutal and swift and nightmareish, except for a handful of companies that provide energy worldwide. 

Which brings me to next weeks Game Plan...

.  .  .  .  .

This coming Wednesday, at 10:30 a.m., a number will come out, a sainted number...  It's called the oil inventory number, and it will cause considerable angst and hoopla.  Hundreds of thousands of traders will be fixated on it and I frankly think it's absoulutely right to cover it with a full court press.  It will be full of sound and fury.  But it signifies nothing, because it makes you no money.  And we on Mad Money are not about to pay attention to something that makes us no money. In fact, this inventory number is what I call a contrary indicator, an indicator that you can't ignore because if you go against it, I think you'll get your best trade of the week.  And the Game Plan is all about trading, the only time during the week I reccommend them.

.  .  .  .  .

Every week for the last year, we have seen this domestic inventory number come out, 10:30, and it usually comes out where it's supposed to be or where it's predicted by short term traders who try to gain the next dollar or two of crude prices every wednsday. Sometimes it's a little more than predicted, meaning that we have a little more oil in the US system than we did the week before. Sometimes it is a little less than predicted, and then the world goes insane at 10:31 after the number comes out. Take this week... The numbers were a little bit high and the price of oil immediately plunged, dropped $4. What happened was all the stocks we like here on Mad Money, including the series of clean coastal drilling stocks we featured this week just got pollaxed, spindled, mutilated anilated, pancaked... Or to use our favorite word here on Mad Money... They got pantsed. All, mind you, because of this plunge in the oil futures casued by a domestic, not a worldwide, not a Chinese - a domestic inventory number that was a little too high. So what happened the next day? Did we just dwell on that? Do you think it must have gone lower, right? Futures signify the inventory bill?... No. Crude rallied $6 bucks and went to an all time high. Now, what happened to that invenvtory that everyone thought was oh so important? Despite the abjectly horrible nature of the market yesterday, many of the oil stocks bucked the trend... Some rallied, most stayed even. How can this be? Doesn't the domestic inventory number control oil? No. Hardly... Think of it like this... Recall that I just said every week, every wednsday we get a report, and it's pretty much in line, plus or minus, and everybody goes nuts selling the oil and gas stocks if the inventories are high and buying them if the inventories are low. Yet, what has happened? What happened in the last year despite this up a little, down a little, up a little... What happened is that oil has doubled. So I don't think its direction, its pricing over this period had anything to do with any Wednsday's number, or any particular inventory number. So what do we do with this insight? I say we use it to our Cramerican advantage. If this number comes out next Wednsday and it shows a big inventory bulge... What are we going to do?... You think maybe, what we should do is panic, and sell with the maddening crowd?... No, no. We're going to utilize the information I just gave you, the contrary information and we're going to buy the oil stocks. We're going to go buy the ones we like and we're going to use the moronic hair trigger selling by everyone else who's uninformed to our advantage.

.  .  .  .  .

For those of you who are looking for a relatively safe oil play with yield, how about you sit there and buy some BP plc (BP) with a near 5% yield. For those who want a humango-monsterous yield I think you should purchase Cramer-fave, Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT), a yield double BP. You want something a little game, then I'd say go with ConocoPhillips (COP), the most integrated, balanced refiner, with natural gas. If you agree with Cramer about this year being the year of nat gas, how about this one?

How about picking up some Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB), which had the misfortune to report yesterday. It reported one of the greatest upside surprises I have ever seen on a down-358 point day... giving you the good fortune to be able to buy it at prices much lower than it should be trading.

How about a coastal drilling play?... because you realize that the momentum is there... We featured a bunch of them... Compagnie Gnrale de Gophysique-Veritas (CGV), Oceaneering International, Inc. (OII), FMC Technologies, Inc. (FTI), Smith International Inc. (SII), and a player to be named later. That ladies and gentleman, is called, because I am such a TV guy, a tease.

Now here's the frustrating part of the gameplan...   The big caveat...

.  .  .  .  .

Okay here's the big caveat.... The big cabiet that could make everything I've said irrelevant. If we do not get a build in inventories that causes the price of oil to plunge, along with everybody in the oil patch, then there is nothing to do at all.  Trade cancelled. We will simply have to wait for the following week to get another chance. The bat stays on our shoulder. I've got both bats out because I want you to remember next Wednesday. You don't get the inventory build, you keep the bat on your shoulder.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Here's my recommended, truncated Game Plan for a truncated week. Wait for your oil pitch.  If it's grooved, if it hangs, if it's juicy and fat, swing for the fences.  If it's outside and can't be hit, just say, Happy Fourth of July, and move on.

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


BP

67.78

na

BP plc (BP)



PBT

25.57

na

Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)



COP

91.64

na

ConocoPhillips (COP)



WMB

39.17

na

Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)



CGV

46.10

na

Compagnie Gnrale de Gophysique-Veritas (CGV)



OII

76.24

na

Oceaneering International, Inc. (OII)



FTI

75.13

na

FMC Technologies, Inc. (FTI)



SII

79.82

na

Smith International Inc. (SII)


 

 



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