After this segment, you
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. . . .
.
JJC: I'm just
glad that last quarter is
over and the new one has
begun... We caught a rally
today... A nice turnaround
from the lows... And once
again, we saw leadership
from a group that people
have hated all year... And
that group is
Healthcare...
So what are we doing?...
We're pressing our
advantage here... Seeking
the safety and comfort
this week from the federal
government and its latest
cooperate giveaway: the
Medicare boondoggle, the
Medicare bill... The
healthcare stocks are
finally starting to work
anyway. We got the wind at
our backs... But the ones
who benefit from the
Medicare bill should do
even better than the whole
healthcare group... But
you got to read the fine
print to figure out what
that might be... And we
have read it for you...
But that's why you tune
in, isn't it?... That's
why we watch Mad Money...
Because we're here...
We've done the work...
And we've got three more
stocks to follow up on the
Fresenius Medical (FMS)
that we recommended
yesterday... By the way,
the German papers were
incredible...
Bleebleeblee... Mad
Money....
Bleebleeooblah...
Fresenius... That's my
own translation...
Anyway, I think these
stocks are poised to feed
heavily at the federal
trough, which could make
us tons of money off of
this Medicare bill...
Proving once again, that
we do have blessedly, a
government for, by, and of
the cooperation, just like
Lincoln wanted... Maybe
not... Anyway, God bless
America for that...
So who's the next player
to benefit from the
Medicare largess?...
I think its a stock that
has lost people a lot of
money in the past... One
that I have disliked, one
that I have trashed,
tarred, and feathered...
And the winner is...
Allscripts Healthcare
Solutions Inc. (MDRX)...
The top company for
electronic medical records
and electronic
prescriptions... Now,
normally I'd stay away
from a stock that dropped
from $28 to $8 in a blink
of an eye, even if it
rebounded at $12.16 now,
booyah... But because this
Medicare bill seems like
it could be so favorable
for this company, I'm
sticking my neck out, and
perhaps other body parts,
and recommending it. See,
the Medicare bill contains
both incentives for using
e-prescribing systems that
will run from 2009 to
2013...
And an e-prescribing
mandate that will penalize
doctors and hospitals that
don't start using
e-prescribing software by
the end of 2010. This part
of the bill has huge
bi-partisan support,
perhaps the only thing in
the world other than
ethanol that is
bi-partisan support...
It's in the both the House
and Senate language. Now,
I think it could be
exactly what a company
like MDRX needs to get
itself into gear...
Because doctors have been
notoriously slow to adopt
their new technology,
which I think is part of
the reason it dropped so
precipitously. They want
to keep using their awful
handwriting... They want
to keep using the same
old, same old, that result
in pharmacy having to call
the doctors office 30% of
the time because the print
is illegible for these
crucial drugs... Not to
mention the numerous
accidents that occur...
Like that kind of senior,
remember George Bailey?...
You know, Farah Fielday in
"It's a Wonderful Life"...
Paper medical records are
so wrong, they're almost
as bad as lawyers, who
still think a word
processor is a stooge
sitting in front of a
typewriter, not a computer
program... But now that
the government is going to
start providing pay
incentives for using this
software and penalties for
not using it, physicians
and hospitals actually
have a pretty good reason
to change their evil ways
in order to protect the
bottom line.
Why MDRX?... After
digesting its recent
merger with Misys
Healthcare, a deal that's
expected to close in the
third quarter, MDRX should
have a client basis of
roughly 150,000 doctors
and 700 hospitals...
That's a quarter of the
doctors in the US. MDRX
has relationships and
sells software to all of
these doctors, but
e-prescribing, the
e-prescribing market is
still small... Only 2% of
the 1.47 billion new
prescriptions and renewals
eligible for election
rally were transmitted
electronically in 2007...
Hey, that has enormous
room for growth and big
addressable market,
Wall Street jibberish for people you sell to...
Especially with the
e-prescribing mandate
coming down from Congress,
which might as well just
be a check made out to
MDRX... As they're already
selling software to a huge
portion of the market,
thus I believe, are poised
to capture the new
e-prescribing business
that the Medicare
boondoggles will bring.
This is exceedingly
bullish... Buy, buy,
buy...
Also, MDRX has a product
called ERX, now it's
software that they give
away for free so doctors
don't have to invest in
new hardware or even pay
for the software... This
is a great Gillette kind
of razor blade business
model if you know what I
mean... MDRX gets paid
whenever there's a
transaction, but there
aren't any upfront costs.
The main thing that MDRX
precipitously from $28 to
$8 was its failure to
deliver on its electronic
health records platform.
There were bugs and the
company had execution
issues, given it was
trading at 60-times
earnings, any little
slip-up would send this
stock to growth purgatory,
and its share holders,
frankly, to Hades, for
losing 20 straight points.
That's exactly what
happened... But, according
to MDRX, they expect to
resolve this issue by the
end of the year with a new
less-buggy version of the
platform...
And since this software
has nothing to do with
e-prescriptions, which
should be the big driver
going forward, I'm not
going to worry about it
too much, you shouldn't
either. I think MDRX is a
comeback stock. It gets
82% of its revenues and
over 90% of its profits
from its software services
division, which provides
e-prescribing solutions...
And the number of
prescriptions filed
electronically are
expected to grow by 400%
this year. The stock is at
18-times earnings, 40%
earnings growth, long-term
growth rate of 23.5%...
I think this stock has
been punished enough. When
you're a high-flying
momentum stock and you
screw up, you pay the
price. But that's in the
past now, especially with
the help of the new
Medicare bill, essentially
mandating the hospitals
and doctors to use MDRX's
product. I think the stock
is going to get its 25
multiple mojo back in
2009... We're talking a
44% gain, I see, ahead of
time.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
The Medicare boondoggle
will pay doctors to use
e-prescribing software,
and penalize those who
don't. I think
Allscripts Healthcare
Solutions Inc. (MDRX)
is the leader here... It's
the one I want you to own.
. . . .
.
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JJC:
We're back, and we're
still all about feeding at
the federal trough. That
was such a cozy nap...
We're all still looking at
stocks that could benefit
from the latest government
boondoggle... The Medicare
bill.
Our next stock is a little
different... It's a name
that I think has been
unfairly tarnished by the
Street's misunderstanding
of the Medicare policy...
The company, and now
you'll understand why I'm
down here obviously on my
Sterns and Foster, or what
do we have?... Oh, even
better, unknown Costco
brand...
The company is ResMed
Inc. (RMD),
and it's one of the two
biggest makers of the
machines that treat sleep
apnea, continuous positive
airway pressure devices...
We just call them sleep
apnea devices for short,
or machines... With 40% of
the market share, it's in
a happy duopoly with its'
competitor Respironics,
which was recently
acquired by Phillips for a
big win... And you know we
like happy duopolies on
this show... Here's the
story of what I see as
this stock's unfair fall
from grace... The people
who administer Medicare
introduced a policy of
competitive bidding that
was announced months ago,
only kicked in today in
order to bring down the
cost of sleep apnea
machines and other durable
medical equipment, which
hurt our stock, RMD...
But we think the Street's
been overreacting, because
only 47% of RMD's sales
are from the US, and of
that, only 20% come from
Medicare... So I believe
the earnings won't be hit
nearly as badly as Wall
Street thinks... Plus,
it's still possible that
Congress will postpone the
second round of
competitive bidding...
They tried to postpone the
first round in that Senate
bill that failed last
week... But the first
round began today and we
still don't have a
Medicare bill, so that
chance is gone... The
second round where
competitive bidding will
be rolled out to more
locations won't start
until the middle of 2009
and it could still be
postponed... Look, it
doesn't matter... Even if
the second round of
competitive bidding
doesn't getting postponed,
RMD's growth drivers in
2009 should more than
offset the impact on
earnings... Either way,
either way I believe that
the RMD situation is being
undervalued and there's
just way too much hand
ringing, these people just
have to take a nap...
Alright, now here's the
other thing that I think
the Street is
forgetting... This fall,
the Medicare regulators
will likely make it easier
for people to get their
sleep apnea machines...
Sleep apnea, by the way,
is one of the most under
diagnosed illnesses out
there... RMD estimates
that there are 35 million
sleep apnea patients in
the US who aren't being
treated... That's a big
untreated market... The
market for the sleep apnea
machines themselves is
less than 10%
penetrated... Most
healthcare situations are
overdone, this is
underdone... Both patients
and doctors aren't really
aware of the disease...
But since there has been a
steady stream of data
connecting sleep apnea
with diabetes, with hyper
tension, and with obesity,
along with data showing
that improved sleep from
sleep apnea machines helps
those conditions, they're
doing basically
preventative medicine... I
think that more people
with those conditions will
get tested for sleep
apnea... Now mind you, and
this is really important,
this sleep apnea illness
is quite different from
another undiagnosed
disease, wake apnea, which
afflicts 90% of our
critics in the media, ba
da dom... Now in order to
get a sleep apnea machine,
a patient has to get a
prescription to visit a
sleep lab, somewhat like
this one, without the Mad
Money blanket... And
because that's such a pain
in the butt, 30% of
patients who get the
prescription don't go...
Now, here's the good
news... On March 13th the
federal agency that
administers Medicare
approved reimbursement for
home diagnostic testing
for sleep disordered
breathing... Since RMD
makes the machines that
are used to diagnose sleep
apnea, they sell the
machines for $1000 bucks,
the doctors get $200 from
Medicare for testing a
patient for sleep apnea...
The economics for this is
great for doctors in
hospitals... This part of
the Medicare boondoggle
should be terrific for the
business, as testing will
be easier, more
convenient, more
profitable... Plus, it
leaves some of the 30% of
the patients who skip out
on sleep labs should be
fine with at home
testing... And that should
improve over all
adaptations of sleep apnea
machines... In other
words, I see a big wave of
sleep apnea machines
coming, and RMD is
definitely riding that
wave... I think this stock
could go as high as $50 or
$53, giving you a 12-point
gain from today's close,
or 30%, as its been
growing sales at 28% over
the past 10 years, and has
a long term growth rate of
21%... I think this stock
is way underpriced... Even
with it shooting up 7%
today, which I wish it
hadn't... I was working
all week on this thing and
I got bummed out because
there are rumors of a
possible bid from
Germany's Limd Ag, and
there are rumors in
several Australian
Newspapers, I read
everything... But RMD said
it knew nothing about a
bid... I say throw in the
takeover speculation, this
one could go higher, but
you know what, if there is
no bid, the stock is going
to give up the two and a
half that it put on today
so you wait for a pull
back from today's rise. I
wasn't going to not do
this piece because I want
to get this Medicare stuff
in front of you, but it is
not because I want to
capitalize on some
hair-brained takeover
rumor... Let the stock
come in.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
The Street thinks that
Medicare is killing
ResMed Inc. (RMD),
when in fact, I expect it
to be a little less than a
pinch... And they're so
distracted by the Medicare
legislation, they've
forgotten to focus on the
proposed regulatory
change, that would give
RMD a tremendous
opportunity for growth,
thanks to a change in
reimbursement that allows
people to be tested for
sleep apnea outside of a
sleep lab. I'm calling RMD
a buy, buy, buy,
especially right in the
teeth of this
legislation's passing. By
the way, no medication
whatsoever for wake apnea
is currently available.
. . . .
.
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