Friday, 07/11/08
Posted 07/12/08,  07:47 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Friday, 07/11/08

  Dow Jones: 11,100  - 128
  NASDAQ:   2,239   - 18
  S&P 500:   1,239    -13
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Well Equipped'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

CR Bard Inc. (BCR)

See BCR's official website here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for BCR here.


See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

JJC:   All right, we're devoting this entire week to helping you try to find the right stocks to own in this miserable market, coupled with an equally unhappy recessionary economy with oil hitting a 52-week high, and your house hitting a 52-week low... Now look, we are not ducking the bear, we're looking though, for bear-free zones, where the bears are more endangered, than are doing the endangering...

I've been giving you the manual, The Cramerican Marine Field Guide to Recessions, all week to show you how Wall Street generally works when times are tough... So you can pick out the stocks that are likely to flourish and bloom in the rough soil of this environment... How's that for a little poetry?... To sum up everything that we've been through this week, okay?...

I have been recommending the stocks of healthcare companies, because healthcare is the one area that the Cramerica Marine Field Guide to Recessions tells us is coming into favor on the Wall Street fashion show while other sectors will be discarded in favor of the boring, safe consistency of these medical stocks...

Page number 1137 is today's lesson... I think the big money managers, the guys whose preferences at the fashion show decide which stocks go up and which ones go down, because they're such huge buyers and sellers, they just manage so much of the money out there that they have a dilemma... I don't think that they want to own stocks that are likely to have disappointing year over year earnings, many of your stocks have gone down this week because of that... And in a time of sky high oil prices, and high food prices, and a potential global economic slow down... The only group that I think is somewhat immunized against these negatives is healthcare... A diversified portfolio must have healthcare here... I think they will buy these stocks hand over fist, which is a sailors term... In fact, they've already started to...

Witness the surge this week in the DRG (i.e., The Amex Pharmaceutical Index (^DRG), the drug index... I believe they've still got a long way to go... The DRG at $301 is still about 60 points off its high... Bear market territory for the DRG, a little pullback today really helped the cost... Remember, these managers, the ones I'm talking about, who really dictate the fashion show... They can not hide in cash, they always have to rotate into something... Which is why, that's the fundament of why I always say there's a bull market somewhere, they put their money in some place... If they put it in cash there would be no bull market... Every night I come out here and try to find a few on Mad Money... And by the way, I try to find it at NASCAR on Sunday night, NBC, "The American Dream with Jim Cramer" which is 7 pm eastern, and 6 pm central... I'm sorry I'm being so shameless about it... I am proud of it and I'm also proud of the work that my executive producer Regina Gilgan did on it... Let's see, I mean you know, in the middle of the day I had second thoughts, I thought, oh maybe I'll look stupid, but that's me, but anyway... I believe that this is the beginning of a rotation into healthcare stocks, just the beginning...

.  .  .  .  .


Now so far, in order to play this recession I've recommended Genentech Inc. (DNA), which reports next week... I've recommended my nephew, that's right Smith & Nephew (SNN)... Becton Dickinson & Co. (BDX), down badly today, interesting opportunity... Hospira Inc. (HSP), for those of you including the coach Andy Reed and Tammy Reed, the Hospira, the IV, no I was not hurt, they weren't worried about me... No, that was a gimmick, that was something props came up with... It was only after I drank the stuff that I did come in deathly ill and had to visit the hospital...

.  .  .  .  .

All right, anyway, tonight I'm adding the final stock to the Cramerican Marine Field Guide to Recessions... Let's see, I think I remembered it in the index...

There it is... CR Bard Inc. (BCR)... One of the three B's of healthcare... Like BDX... we told you to take profits on the third though, Baxter International Inc. (BAX) got a lot of negative mail on that... But you know what?... It's never bad to take a profit, never... We don't like it as much, and it's up the most since I first recommended it... And when I created the three B's on April 30th of 2007, these stocks have taken down from the S&P futures, as they were today and I think they are the first to bounce back when the selling pressure ends... The S&P, which is suffering from recession the most, takes these stocks, rememebr the futures they drive stocks down to levels where you shouldn't even be able to buy them, the whole market goes down giving you the opportunity...

I think you can put those profits back into any one the stocks I've recommended so far or, of course BCR, which is of course, ever confused on the show with the Bard because I consistently have plays, I have a lot in common, and Bard has a lot in common with the plays... They both make me very happy... This one is a comedy, not a tragedy... I also think you should take profits in other groups that are more exposed to the weak domestic and possibly weakened global economy... Put them into healthcare stocks... Friends, Cramericans, Countrymen, lend me your ears and I will tell you why I think the Bard, BCR, makes such a great buy... The Bard is a medical equipment company with catheters galore for many different uses... I have a catheter right here, right now, you just can't see it... No, that's a joke, just like the IV, and I didn't get sick after I had the salt water, but I just like to you know, for the extreme... Anyway, surgical equipment, stents, guide wires, medical devices that help prevent the spread of hospital associated infections, which hospitals just can't seem to get enough of, given the need they have to cover their medical malpractice butts... The stuff BCR sells into, I'd want to distinguish it from say Botox, right up here, Restiline from here down... I mean, you got to use Bard stuff... I like wrinkle-free skin as much as the next guy... BCR stock has fallen from $100 to $88 since last March, partially because they had a $44-45 million pretax hit, not the worst thing in the world for a company that should do $2.45 billion in sales this year... But I think its still bad... This was from discontinuing its salute to hernia fixation device back on June 13th after already recalling it in the first quarter... Kind of embarrassing... The Bard got flanked by Clavitia, and that's close to its 52-week high in the hernia repair business... But its coming out with new hernia products in the second half of 2009 to help offset the competition... Hernias, too, are not economically sensitive... I got one when I was a little boy when my Aunt Lynn put me on a pole and I hung on too long... I'll just show it to you, probably a bad idea... You know what?... I've got horse sense... The Bard also received some warning letters about conditions in their two manufacturing plants... But the company made its fixes at one facility and its preparing for another inspection, its implementing fixes at the other... So I think you can see some good news about that... But on all fronts, BCR is in good shape... It's got new products coming out, life stent the superficial... Femoral artery, that's in the thigh, should get FDA in the fourth quarter... That's a catalyst I'll be on the lookout for... I think the company also has got great businesses in devices that help prevent the contraction of certain healthcare, hospital-associated infections, very big issue, that's another Obama fixation... BCR gets 10-15% of its sales from these sexier products... Why does this matter?... Medicare administrators are looking to pay less for incremental costs related to these diseases, which should give hospitals more of an incentive to spend money on BCR's products that prevent them... For example, the Bard has a new product called Agento, which is an endo-tracheal, meaning it goes down your throat, tube catheter that is being used to reduce the occurrence of ventilator-associated pneumonia... Then there's their BardX catheter... Don't you love how they name all these?... Agento, Bard-X, like it's something you actually might want to stick into yourself... Anyways... This one reduces the occurrence of urinary tract infections associated with the catheters used... Now BCR is trading at 17 times earnings, get rid of that yellow thing that's underneath me so people can see what I'm doing for heavens sake... Oh, okay, the sensors don't let me do that...

With a consistent 14% long term growth rate, I believe the big money guys will be willing to pay much more for this company's consistent growth going forward... And that's the whole point to the Cramerican Marine Field Guide to Recessions... Remember, all the world's a stage, and all the stocks are merely players, and I think BCR is a player.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      I believe that the way to try and make money in this market is with healthcare stocks... I've now given you five to choose from: Genentech Inc. (DNA), Smith & Nephew PLC (SNN), Becton Dickinson & Co. (BDX), Hospira Inc. (HSP), and last but not least, CR Bard Inc. (BCR).

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


BCR

88.17

na

CR Bard Inc. (BCR)



DNA

77.75

na

Genentech Inc. (DNA)



SNN

53.22

na

Smith & Nephew PLC (SNN)



BDX

81.17

na

Becton Dickinson & Co. (BDX)



HSP

38.84

na

Hospira Inc. (HSP)


 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Second Segment
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'Chemical Attraction'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

PPG Industries Inc. (PPG)

See PPG's official website here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for PPG here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

JJC:   Yesterday, Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) announced an unbelievable deal... frankly, I thought it was a little nutty... A huge, huge takeover of a specialty chemical maker Rohm & Haas (ROH), by all means, not to be confused with Rommel and Hess... At a massive 74% premium, holy smokes...

Then today, we hear the Ashland Inc. (ASH) is paying a 33% premium to buy another specialty chemicals company, Hercules Inc. (HPC), all right, well Venus?...

Let's call this the silver chemical lining on an otherwise awful day, week, month, year... The chemical sector has been taking a beating, I mean like, this is what this button was made for... Over concerns about raw costs... I mean these companies generally do use a huge amount of oil... Dow Chemical is like the largest buyer of natural gas in the world... And there were many concerns about global weakness... So these have been in their own personal bear market... But with two big deals in the last two days, and with this being speculation Friday, I think its about time to speculate on a specialty chemicals takeover of our own... Heck, if the managers of these companies are buying in this environment, maybe the whole sector is undervalued... Maybe, just maybe, we are too bearish... I think the reason Dow Chemical pulled the trigger on ROH, even at that exorbitant exceeding price, is that it is trying to diversify its exposure into specialty chemicals...

Listen up... That means chemicals that are less dependent on energy, on energy related feed stocks, typically natural gas... Meaning the high price of oil or natural gas just doesn't hurt them as much... And because as specialty chemical makers, their products should be less vulnerable to competition... People on the Wall Street fashion show generally pay more for earnings from specialty chemical companies than for basic boring commodity companies, because, as you can well figure it out... Commodity companies aren't special... They're at the mercy of all sorts of global woes... Where as specialty companies have proprietary products that aren't easily duplicated and tend to be used whether the economy is strong or not... I think Dow Chemical and other chemical companies have every reason in the world to buy specialty players right now...

The question is... Who's next?...

And I've got the answer...

The answer is PPG Industries Inc. (PPG)... which at these levels has a dividend yield of about 3.8%... better than treasuries, giving them tax favors, status and dividends, making this one a safer way to speculate on a takeover, as the company is paying you to wait... The stock is already down 13% since May 30th, and that yield should keep it from going much lower... I think if the market hadn't been horrible today, PPG would have been up substantially on the back to back of Rohm and Haas and Hercules... Instead, it hit its 52-week low... I mean, come on, I know the market is bad, but please... This is giving you a much better entry point in what I think is a great specialty chemical stock with a fabulous management committed to share holders... The best spec at a 52-week low, uh, uh, doesn't compute, too negative... I like PPG because it has got a lot of exposure to end markets that are working right now and limited exposure to the ones that aren't... 54% aren't coming from this country, they're coming from the rest of the world... Did you know... That's incredible... 25% was rest of the world just 2 years ago... These guys saw this decline coming... Only 5% of its profits come from housing... I used to think of this as a housing play, only 15% of its sales come from auto and architectural coatings...

I used to think of this as the auto-glass play... I like that PPG sold its controlling interest in auto-glass to raise cash and reduce auto exposure... These guys have done everything right... They get no credit at all... By the way, I like PPG's strong aerospace protective and marine and optical specialty materials businesses, all unique... And at PPG's businesses, 40% are growing in profits in the 15% plus range... I think PPG gets it, but because this market is just so horrible, and the dollar is such a lonesome horn toad of a currency, I think a buyer could pick up PPG for a song and maybe a dance... PPG is even a "new tech"/ alternative energy play... Coatings for solar cells and wind mills, as well as fiberglass for windmill blades, that's kind of like Owens Corning... Management thinks that solar and wind could be 5% of sales... That's not much yet, but that's a whole lot more solar and wind than you get from most chemicals... With oil at $146 and change, wind is bigger than ever... But I don't think it has political mindshare like our moronic ethanol policy which everybody seems to love in the government... Rememebr what that is, 30% of our corn goes to 3% of our gasoline, causing you to pay up at the pump and the super market...

Earlier this year, PPG made this acquisition that no one talks about... It's called SigmaKalon... It's a company that focuses on coatings for windmills, offshore platforms, petroleum chemicals, oh petroleum plants, all three of which we like these... especially the first two... The acquisition also made PPG, again, much more of an overseas company... Another reason to like the stock... 10% of PPG's sales are from Chloral Chlolis, a type of chemical that's in tight demand... 12% of Chloralcolite capacity has been shut in this country since 2000, no imports coming in, exports making up 3% of sales... Back in June, Dow Chemical declared force measure on its cost of soda... That's lie, not the y, lye comment... And its one of these chemicals I'm talking about production, which sent prices higher... Again, everything is working for this company... Let's go back to the takeover question... To Ashland, Hercules, Dow Chemical, Rohm & Haas... Compared to prices paid in these acquisitions, especially Dow purchasing Rohm and Haas, I think PPG and its peers are incredibly cheap... Buy, buy, buy... If you use the evaluation Dow Chemical put on Rohm & Haas for PPG, how about this... No, it's too aggressive... Let me do something else... Let me give it a 30% haircut...

This stock, in the $50's, could be an $81 stock... How about that?... Better than a sharp bowie knife in the eye... PPG has shrunk the equity with so many stock buy backs and the stock price decline its combined to reduce the company to below $10 billion, that is easy to swallow for the majors...

Even if PPG doesn't get a bid, I think the bids that are coming out of the chemical industry are so high, they're bound to cause other chemical companies to start trading higher... It was all masked by how bad the market was this week, holy cow... It seems that everybody now knows that, while PPG might only be worth something in the late $50's to the market right now, it could be worth $80 or more to another chemical company, and that could keep this stock on the move...

Make no mistake, PPG, speculative, the company and its peer groups are highly dependent on raw costs... Every time oil goes up, people just freak out here, and the strength of a global economy, now everybody thinks is weakening... But that said, the prices Dow Chemical and Ashland are paying for two other specialty chemical plays, how could we ignore this PPG?... It could disappoint in earnings, but that would just be yielding 4%... I mean, you might even want to wait until you see earnings, but you know what, if you want to speculate, just pull the trigger right now.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      Want to speculate on consolidation among the chemical companies?... I've looked them all over... The one that looks like Hercules... the one that looks like Rohm & Haas... is the 3.8%-yielding PPG Industries Inc. (PPG)... Pull the trigger...  Get long!

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


PPG

55.42

na

PPG Industries Inc. (PPG)

Price target:  $81.00

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
  FastMoneyRecap:   This site will be a quick summary of recommendations made by the great Fast Money TV show crew, that will offer you a unique service, to compare their picks to Jim Cramer's past comments about those stocks.

Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
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