Monday, 07/14/08
Posted 07/15/08,  08:31 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Monday, 07/14/08

  Dow Jones: 11,055   - 45
  NASDAQ:   2,212   - 26
  S&P 500:   1,228    -11
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Mad Mission Statement'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

No specific stock picks.

General comments.


See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

JJC:   We've got plenty of hot Mad Money topics to talk about tonight...

We've got the collapse of the U.S. banking system, at least as we know it... We've got the President's plan to drill offshore... We've got some ideas on how to make money off of that...

But first, we've got to cover some principals that have governed this show, Mad Money, from day one...

For those of you watching for the first time tonight... and everyone else for that matter... it's time for you to un-learn a most pernicious and widespread myth about investing... one that you may actually believe in... I'm talking about the myth of 'buy and hold'... the idea that the best way to invest is to find some high-quality stocks, and then own them forever...

Sadly, this is conventional wisdom...

The pundits tell you to buy stocks, and just sit on them... because, if you sell frequently, you're going to have to pay commissions... big deal, commissions have been dirt cheap for years... And big capital gains taxes... wait a second, they're as low as we've ever seen them!...

The doctrine of 'buy and hold' says that, if you find a good stock... whatever that means to a buy and holder... and, if you just hang onto it for decades... well, you know where you'll end up... house of pleasure.... Uh, I don't think so... the house of pain.

This show's about doing exactly the opposite... It's about the need to do homework after you've bought a stock... the beginning is the buy... then the work sets in... so you'll know when to sell... because, sooner or later, you always have to sell... And it's about the psychology of helping you stay in the game... whether it be through index funds, or the mutual funds I've recommended in Stay Mad For Life... or individual stocks... but only if you have the time and inclination, because stocks can be dangerous, if you're building your own portfolio...

The whole point of Mad Money is to educate you about stocks... about your portfolio... so that you can let your gains run until you know you're being piggish... and cut your losses, before they wreck your gains...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      I'm here to save you from a 'buy and hold' strategy... That's a strategy that could have lost you oodles of money in the past year.  I'm here to show you that, while it does take work to be a good investor... homework... I believe the results are worth the effort.  And, you know what?  If I have to light my pants on fire to do it - and I can get a permit from the fire marshal - I will!

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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


na

na

na

No specific stock picks.

General comments.


 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Second Segment
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'Financial Freedom'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

No specific stock picks.

General comments.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

JJC:   After the events of this weekend, it's no surprise that the financials got carpet-bombed today... With the few financial stocks, Washington Mutual actually getting new... can you believe that this guy is still the CEO... I mean, the Wall of Shame, does it mean nothing to this government?... This man (pointing to Kerry Killinger, CEO of WM) has systematically presided over one of the greatest meltdowns in history, but nobody seems to care, except Cramer... I feel like I come out here every day and just repeat the same old, but correct, party line, that you can't own the financials or the homebuilders...

Over the collapse of a bank that I have despised and trashed to you repeatedly, IndyMac (IMB), on Friday... Which by the way, is leaving the FDIC, our banking safety net with far less money than I think it will need... And with Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) suddenly about to be owned, perhaps, by us, through a federal government bailout... We need to figure out what this means for you as a bank depositor and possibly a bank share holder, or a homeowner, or a potential one...

I want to make this clear... I think what the government is doing for Fannie and Freddie, while great for anyone who's in the market for a mortgage, is pretty much irrelevant to the banking stock sector... See, banks trade primarily on earnings and dividends... And right now, few of them have any of the former, so they're cutting or eliminating the latter... In fact, most banks have gigantic losses because they lent money to home buyers that they will never see back again... They have what's known as non-performing assets, which are wiping out whatever gains they might have...

But I don't want to be the Herald of purely bad news here... See, there is a silver lining... And it's this, and I want to be real clear...

Your deposits are safe...

I don't think you have to go make a run on your local bank... And with the infusion of cash into Fannie and Freddie, it may have just gotten a little easier for you to sell your house... Those organizations matter... I believe it's the stocks of the banks and the stocks of the homebuilders that you do have to worry about...

But I don't want you to fret about a second great depression... Nevertheless, when it comes to those stocks, the example of IndyMac, and I think there will be many, many more IndyMacs and bigger IndyMacs coming soon, that should be enough to warn you away from these stocks... Can you believe that this reckless beyond belief lender, IndyMac, actually criticized me a few months ago on their conference call... Telling us that people will never walk away from homes, they're underwater it... Like Cramer says they would... It takes someone who used to work at Countrywide, now the acknowledged joke of the industry, and a Bank of America division, to boot, to make such a bold, ludicrous decision... And that was the case of Michael Perry, who was IndyMac's CEO... Was... What you need to know is that I don't believe anything has happened that was remotely positive for the banking industry yet... All we keep getting are blueprints and frameworks for equity destruction... As the bad loans from 4 million home buyers continue their epic, Shermanesque, march to a sea, where I expect every bank but Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK) to close on Friday, under its own name, and return Monday with the word "federal" in the title... And the equity, that's the value of the stock, totally wiped out... Of course, IndyMac, the equity had been reduced to almost nothing anyway... I think we have to use that as a tell all for other banks... Here's the new rule in Cramerica... If a bank stock goes below $5, it becomes a candidate for the IndyMac process... If you own one of them, it's not too late to sell... But I'm convinced that sooner or later it will be... view that $5 price bench mark as running on empty, and you ain't getting to a gas station with that bank in you tank...

There most likely can't be a bounce back, and part because what you'll probably see next is Fannie and Freddie taking over the bad part of a bank's portfolio... That is what I suggest to you, Mr. Paulson, if you want to try to figure out what to do next... And the good part being bought by anyone solvent enough to pay for it... Perhaps a Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan (JPM), or a US Bancorp (USB)... Well, it's not yet clear who the buyer is going to be... I hate to come out here every night and say avoid, avoid, avoid... I hate to hit this button endlessly, believe me... Sell, sell, sell... But what's the sense of trying to make money for you with good ideas if you put your money in these nare-do-well banks... And it gets wiped out... Good ideas can take care of themselves... I think you need to focus on controlling you losses, capital preservation... To avoid this... Wall Street jibberish for trying as hard as you can to not lose money... If you don't do that, it doesn't matter how many winners we pick, the losers will likely wipe out our gains, and then some...

Controlling and avoiding losses should always be your first priority... And right now I think that means giving the banks and homebuilders a very wide berth... I don't think you have to worry about your deposits... I'm going to reiterate that because I don't want to accidentally cause a bank run to any of the banks I've mentioned... Your money is fine... Now let's be careful, because people have misinterpreted before this... The stocks are not fine... Your deposits are fine... And the bank run, look I don't want to be responsible for it and duly hated for it for what I say... I don't want to do any more damage to the system than has already been done by reckless lenders and a complacent federal government... I don't blame Chuck Schumer by the way, for pointing out the obvious about IndyMac... He was the Senator from New York that was fingered this weekend, I mean, Schumer and I, it's not like we're buddies, pals, friends, although, full disclosure, I did donate money to him in the old days when I was at my hedge fund... I don't do that anymore...

But he was not the reason why IndyMac went, had a bank run, for heavens sake, they were... Now, there are degrees of bad within the banks... Downey Financial (DSL), Chorus, FirstFed (FED) and BankUnited (BKUNA), are I think, the worst... The most in danger and may need to be seized, just like IndyMac... The next worse, National City Corporation (NCC), Washington Mutual (WM) and First Horizon (FHN), which will, just, I believe, have to raise capital right now, or be forced to merge later... Or, open up as Nat City Federal... But, whatever the degree, I don't want you owning any of them...

How about these?... Citigroup (C), Wachovia Corp. (WB), Bank of America (BAC)... The market is drawing its own negative conclusions... Lehman Brothers (LEH), Merrill Lynch (MER), not banks...

You know what?... I'm not even going to say anything... You can draw you own conclusions...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      I believe your deposits are safe, and I say Hallelujah... Just don't make the mistake of investing those deposits in a bank stock or a homebuilder... Because to me, that's where the real danger is.

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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


na

na

na

No specific stock picks.

General comments.


 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
  FastMoneyRecap:   This site will be a quick summary of recommendations made by the great Fast Money TV show crew, that will offer you a unique service, to compare their picks to Jim Cramer's past comments about those stocks.

Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
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