Tuesday, 07/15/08
Posted 07/16/08,  06:57 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Tuesday, 07/15/08

  Dow Jones: 10,962   - 92
  NASDAQ:   2,215    + 2
  S&P 500:   1,214     - 2
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Plan of Action'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

No specific stock picks.

General comments.


See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

JJC:   This show is about making money... Some people want to keep you from making money, they want to bet against you if you own stocks... These people are called short sellers... They profit from when your stocks go down... There's nothing wrong with that... I shorted stocks, myself when I worked in money management... It's perfectly legal... But, for the last year, the shorts have had too much of an edge over you as a stock owner because the SEC hasn't been doing its job enforcing laws that protect you... The short sellers have been knocking your stocks down left and right with impunity... They've been ripping your lungs out... The SEC woke up today and said it might start enforcing laws that protect you from short selling rip offs, at least when it comes to some of the financials... I'm going to give you the whole skinny later in the show about how the tables may soon be turned in your favor, and even how you can help them be turned... But tonight, let's first talk about making money, not just protecting it... I think Thursday, that's right, this week's Thursday, is going to be a landmark day for Wind Power... Wind Power!... our favorite source of renewable energy... that's clean and cheap and at only $.04 a kilowatt, wow!... What a steal... Why is it a big day?...

Because of Docket number 33672 of the Texas public utility commission... The wind power initiative, for what I think is the most important wind state in the union... I am confident that when we look back at this week, we'll be saying, Remember Docket number 36672, like we say, Remember the Alamo... Ah, maybe not... But the great state of Texas is planning to move the biggest bottleneck to the creation of wind farms... Just like this one, that props came up with... Now, the difficulty connecting these farms, which are in remote areas, to the electric grid, is what Thursday's commission is going to be talking about... The commission is planning to discuss and could issue a final order to create eight repetitive renewable energy zones, the plan which will be huge, huge, for companies with wind exposure, is to build out grid infrastructure first, so that companies will come in and develop wind farms without the fear of being permanently cut off from the grid... I think this will be a gigantic catalyst for this nascent industry, even bigger, well I don't know, yeah, even bigger than those great Boone Pickens ads...

All right, so I'm not Boone Pickens, but I've got a great pinwheel... The plan should send the wind stocks higher... All of them... The great thing about this Texas project is that it sets a precedent of government support for state wind power that I think could be easily duplicated in other states... It makes a much safer prospect to build wind forums... I say, Look out, Holland, Texas could become the next windmill king... All right, so with this in mind, I want to revisit the Mad Money Windex, which has been absolutely hammered over the last month and a half and took even more damage today as oil plummeted, people dumped wind stocks like the whole story was over, when in fact, as of Thursday, the wind power thesis will be better than ever... The Mad Money wind index is a group of ten stocks levered to the growth of wind power that I picked out on May 28th, which I believe is an accurate indicator of the overall wind trend...

Since then, the stock market has plummeted, and our Windex is down too, it's down 11.8% percent, and today, with oil down, these wind stocks are being sold as though no one will ever think of using wind power because of a pull back in crude... The index is not levered, for heavens sake, to crude... It's levered to public utility commissions all over America... And they will take their cue from this hearing and several others in the coming months in Texas that will put wind front and center... Because there are only a handful of stocks that are truly plays on wind, we had to go looking for stocks that had smaller wind businesses... We couldn't just come up with, you know... It's not like there is just the wind company... It doesn't happen... We've got ones that we expect to grow quickly because of the wind boom... That's part of the reason why the wind index is down so hard... A lot of the stocks in it are levered to industrial activity... When I say levered, I mean they're geared to, they're sensitive to industrial activity... And those are some of the stocks that have been really crushed lately...

So in the wind index we've got Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN), a stock that I own for my charitable trust where I play with an open hand... That's down 19.7%... The railcar company with a side line in making wind towers that we think is worth as much as the whole railcar business... And you know what?... We think it better be because from what we can see, the tank car business is just plain bad...

We've got Thomas & Betts Corp. (TNB), down 19%... Another industrial player that makes electrical components... But since it does it for wind towers too, we still like it...

Owens Corning (OC), now we had the CEO on, we know things are doing great there... That's a consummate new tech stock that makes the composite materials for the blades of windmills, that's down 20%...

Clipper Windpower (CRPWF.PK), down 22%... I think that's because this one is a turn around story...

Kaydon Corporation (KDN), which makes bearings for wind turbines, 15.8% down...

Broadwind Energy, Inc. (BWEN.OB), another wind tower play is down 18%...

Woodward Governor Co. (WGOV), a pastiche of a company that makes power systems for the wind turbines...

Nacel Energy Corporation (NCEN.OB) is down 11%...

MasTec Inc. (MTZ), with its wind farm construction and repair business is down 1.6%...

And Vestas Wind ADR (VWDRY.PK), the full service wind power company from Denmark is down 1.9%... Look, this should tell you something... The real play on wind has been able to survive this awful market...

And finally, Otter Tail Corp. (OTTR), is actually up 15.8%... Our big win winner, as this utility seems to finally be getting credit for its wind tower business...

Overall, the stocks we like that are associated with wind pulled back hard... I don't think it's because of wind... It's because of their other businesses... I believe these stocks are just victims of a weakening global economy, and an already weak US economy... But we like them now, just like how we originally liked them... Because we think the small wind portions of their business will grow to become much larger parts of the companies... The more wind heavy stocks, other than Clipper Wind, which I said a speculative turn around story, like MTZ, Vestas and OTTR, have actually done pretty well, which proves the wind thesis rocks... I think this is an incredible buyable pull back in the Wind Index... How great is it that these stocks are so much cheaper than they were on May 28th even though on Thursday, I predict that they're about to get the biggest boost they've ever had from the great state of Texas... This is why I love wind so much here... So remember Docket number 36672... I say a chicken in every pot, and a windmill in every backyard... Another point in winds favor... California and the mid-west are also seeing a solid increase in connection requests... As in connection to the grid... From renewable energy operators... Mostly wind farms... And these states are being forced to streamline the process... Making the adoption of wind energy in this country even faster.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     The wind index stocks are a case of the market throwing the baby out with the bathwater, or the chicken out with the bathwater, when things get bad... But the thesis behind these stocks has never been stronger... Thanks to Texas' plan to build out energy transmission infrastructure in areas where wind farms can work efficiently... Not only do I love wind plays here, but if you stick with Cramer, I'm going to give you a brand new wind company that I'm adding to the Mad Money Wind Index... [see that recommendation]

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


na

na

na

No specific stock picks.

General comments.


 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Second Segment
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'Quanta Leap'

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Featured Stock(s):

Quanta Services Inc. (PWR*)

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

JJC:   We're breaking wind furiously tonight... Wind power that is...

Most of the stocks that are levered to wind, the cleanest, cheapest, source of renewable energy out there, got hit again today, oil is down huge... People are selling wind stocks like there is no tomorrow... But the truth is, as I already told you when we revisited the fabulous Mad Money Wind Index, Wind-Ex, as we call it, is that things have never been better for wind power, and never have been better for the companies that make it possible... I think you have to buy these stocks when you can...

The oil futures are down $7 to $8 bucks, natural gas down $.50, not when you have to, when oil is flying... And since oil is down the most in three years today, I think that's a chance to jump on a windmill... The chief bottleneck to making wind power a key part of our nation's energy infrastructure is connecting wind farms, which are located in remote places, to the grid... Most states don't even have a plan of how to do this... So, if you decided to go buy a wind tower, believe me, the utility commission couldn't get that power from you... But Texas has a plan to build out the grid so that people will build wind farms in places where wind power makes sense... That's a plan we should hear about this Thursday, at the Texas public utility commission hearing... And I expect that will put the newfound focus on wind and send all our wind stocks higher...

Plus, California and states in the Midwest are also streamlining their ability to hook up renewable energy facilities... Mostly wind farms to the grid... Remember, we've got a lot of wind in this country and a lot of areas that are very windy... But to do that, they need companies that build transmission lines... Now these players will be the next stocks to benefit from the windpower buildout in this country...

And my favorite one, quite a good company, is Quanta Services Inc. (PWR*) for all you homegamers... This is a company that installs, repairs and maintains transmission lines...

This is not the first recommendation... I recommended it November 15th of 2007, at $27.28 because of its power infrastructure business that's a play on our need to strengthen our decaying energy grid... And we're up 6.3% since then in the toughest market in years... That's an achievement in itself... But PWR has now become a wind play... I like it even more... In general, we need about $1.5 trillion in investments for overall energy infrastructure between now and 2030... And with the traditional bidding season for these projects in progress, we should see some further bookings for quanta next quarter...

But that's just why we like the company without factoring wind in... The new hearing coming from the Texas public utility commission, remember Docket number 36672, on Thursday, which could result in a decision to build out eight competitive renewable energy zones where the state will build out the grid infrastructure, first to encourage companies to build wind farms in the zones... And the contracts that might ultimately stem from this hearing could be worth, these are big numbers, $3-9 billion... Some of which, go on PWR's way... PWR is bound to get some of these... Anyone who follows along with my charitable trust knows I've been buying this stock, where I play with an open hand... Don't get me wrong... No contracts are going to be awarded to PWR on Thursday, right... That's not going to happen... It will happen in future hearings, I believe... But remember how Wall Street works... People are now going to focus on Docket 36672, the analysts, right, which will then get them making calls, finding who's going to win... And you know what?... They're going to figure out the companies that will get the contracts...

And I think that means they'll be thinking and talking about PWR... That's probably going to be the most likely one... This company already has renewable contracts worth $140 million with a decision in Texas, don't forget, similar coming in California and mid-west, renewable energy infrastructure is, I think, about to become a much larger part of PWR's business... For that reason, I'm adding PWR to the Mad Money Wind Index...

And I think it would make a great buy... especially still because the stock was down an extra 1.2% today... I believe that PWR will be perceived as the big winner of these Texas hearings... And it's tradable and investable ahead of that meeting on Thursday... Even though I don't expect contracts to be awarded... I think everybody will be talking about PWR Friday... That's why we're talking about it today, ripped from Friday's headlines... But PWR is not just about electricity transmission, although electricity makes up 60% of its sales... 17% of its sales are from natural gas services... Hey, a good business to have in 2008, which is the year of natural gas, despite the decline of $.50 where everyone now says natural gas is over... PWR is involved in a project to transport gas from the Barnett Shale... Again, natural gas is down badly... I don't see that as a reason to run from these stocks... I see it as a reason to go to them...

Because I think the long-term fundamentals there are the best of any carbon energy source... PWR gets another 17% of its sales from telecom and cable, building out the infrastructure they need to compete in their endless war for TV, voice and data customers... PWR, $5.2 billion backlog, $4 billion coming from electric, natural projects... The company has only got a $5 billion market cap... And just over the next 12 months it has $1.85 billion backlog for power and natural gas and a $2.3 billion total backlog... That's enormous...

Remember, one of the things we say on Mad Money is whenever we see the backlog exceed the market capitalization of the stock, then we should recall the great case of Transocean Inc. (RIG), which we recommended and got a huge bid from TransOcean, when the backlog trumped the market cap... The CEO told us how to do this... We had the GlobalSantaFe CEO on and he said listen, my market cap is ridiculous, versus my backlog, that's what turned us on, doing homework... PWR is a company with a lot of opportunities coming at them that aren't priced into the stock, meaning that Wall Street isn't accounting for them in its evaluation... I really like it at under $29, especially with the wind kickers starting to come in and the four point decline we've had in the last few weeks...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:      For the latest way to play wind building out the grid, building out this grid infrastructure to support wind farms... I've been to wind farms, without that conduit, they don't work... In order to have mass conduits, you want Quanta Services Inc. (PWR*)... You should think Wind-Ex... You should think PWR.

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


PWR*

29.01

na

Quanta Services Inc. (PWR*)

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

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See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
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Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
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