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1:30pm show
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  Thursday, 08/14/08
Posted 08/15/08,  11:22 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 08/14/08

  Dow Jones: 11,615   +  82
  NASDAQ:   2,453   +  25
  S&P 500:   1,292   +   7
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Shopper's Guide'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)

See RL's official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for RL here.

See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


Jim:    All week, we've been talking about the best stocks that reported the biggest earnings beats of the quarter.  There was Jones Apparel (JNY) with that fabulous CEO Wes Card, and that great CEO, John McClain...  Tyco International Ltd. (TYC), what a quarter...  Orbital Sciences Corp. (ORB)...

And, today, I'm adding a new name, Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL), to that list...

And don't forget what kind of list it is...  It's a shopping list, for heaven's sake!...

Do not dare... do not dare to purchase one of these stocks tonight! It's just supposed to be bought at lower prices!...

These are not stocks to buy now. They're stocks to buy when they fall to a level when the price is right.

I can't be there to tell you when to buy them. See, because most of the time, and the reason why I've been emphasizing this series, it's that it's intraday trading. The market is so crazy that, if I wait until after the bell to tell you to buy RL... No!... I need you to buy it intraday when the market goes down, so I'm giving you this list of ideas now, with the prices where you should buy them.

And I am telling you to keep you're Mad Money bat on your shoulder, until you get the right pitch, or price... which, in the case of RL, is under $70... with the stock currently at $73.05... up $3 on the continued rally of apparel and retail, spurred by lower gasoline prices. I absolutely forbid you... to buy now, or tomorrow, as I expect the stock to be brought lower by the slings and arrows of this outrageous market sooner or later. It will go lower. You've got to believe me...

.  .  .  .  .

RL is an old-time Cramer fave...

I recommended it back on January 31st, when the stock was at $60... a 20% gain, if you got in at my price. We've always liked RL as a high-end retailer with great execution, and it's ability to repurchase the licensing rights to its products all over the world. This company had a really bad strategy, and they're undoing the strategy... that's why it keeps going higher.

.  .  .  .  .


Now I'm coming back to RL because of the quarter it reported last Wednesday. It was a thing of beauty and really blew people away. See, Wall Street was looking for RL to earn 72 cents per share...

Man, oh man... did they ever under-estimate the power of Polo!...

The actual earnings came in at 93 cents a share, a 29% beat. The quarter was powered by double-digit growth in Europe, and good inventory management, as the company cut inventories by 6%, which meant that they didn't have to cut price on as much merchandise. The price of inventories and how much you've got sitting in a store is like a stock... If everybody wants to sell a stock, it goes lower. If everybody wants to sell merchandise, the stock in the store goes lower...

Even though RL beat by 21cents, the company only raised its 2008 guidance by 5 cents, which means they're being very conservative about the second half. I'm not so conservative...

Gas prices... you know I think they're going to $3.50 (per gallon) in the next two weeks. The Fed is free to cut rates, now that the specter of inflation has been exorcised and annihilated.

Happier days should be here again for this retailer. But there's nothing wrong with some under promising for some future over delivery.

.  .  .  .  .


RL is all about execution... in retail, it's the difference between success and failure. What do I mean when I say execution?... All right, in 2000, RL started buying back these licenses... remember, I told you that they shouldn't have done it to begin with... from distributors in Europe, and selling its products directly... which grew European revenues from $150 million, to just around $1 billion.

Now, the company wants to mirror the strategy in Asia, where most of its money comes from licensing. They're already buying back their children's and golf licenses in Japan, and now control three quarters of RL-related business there. It's a big brand name over there.

If the results of this strategy in Asia are anything close to what they were in Europe, it's going to mean big bucks for years for RL...

In Europe, RL is reducing its exposure to low-quality distribution partners, focusing on the ones that can carry a wider variety of the company's apparel at higher prices. That's why their sales per square foot in Europe are 50% higher than in North America.

This company also has tremendous growth opportunities in these countries that I always mention... you've got to understand, this is where the money's being made... in India, in Russia, in China... all places where people (now) have more money in their pockets and want to spend it conspicuously on things like clothes that make them feel rich. The desire to look good may be the grease of the wheels of capitalism, but the desire to feel wealthy is what makes these wheels turn. And, boy, are the people in Russia wealthy these days...

.  .  .  .  .

I also think we could be seeing a lot of upgrades here. Right now, the analysts don't like the stock. They don't understand the new business model... they don't understand the power of buying back all of these licenses... 5 buys, 8 holds on the stock... Morgan Keeting just upgraded to a buy... I think many of these holds will follow. They're all looking for an apparel stock to get behind. They'll get this one.

Plus... can I just say... that this 63-year-old... guy wears Ralph Lauren... I got this Ralph purple label (pointing to the suit jacket he is wearing)... a decade ago... maybe even longer... and it still looks great, doesn't it? An 11-year-old thing... I mean, how else do you think I got rich? By buying new suits every year? Hardly! By wearing the same suit every year... that's the trick to great wealth! (wink)...

Right now, RL is trading at 15.9x earnings with a 14.3% growth rate... not expensive... but I think we can get a better price, and that's what counts. If the stock trades as low as the growth rate, down to 14.3x earnings... $65-$68... that would be such a gift.

Now, I know you probably won't be able to get it below $70, but this is where the real strength is...

By buying on weakness, it's the best way to make a really good idea pay off. Remember, the series is not just about the biggest beats. It's about how to buy them, particularly in a treacherous market.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)'s quarter may have been stupendous, but you'd be stupid to pay up for it here.  Keep the stock on your shopping list, and wait until it pulls back below $70, and then I want you to pull the trigger.

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


RL

73.05

na

Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)

Price target to buy:  Below $70.00


     

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Second Segment
 
Opening Segment 2 Title: 'CEO Interview'

Jim Skinner, CEO

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

McDonald's (MCD*)

See MCD's official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for MCD here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

Jim's comments BEFORE the interview:
JJC:   Happier days continue to be here again, as the market ignored entirely a consumer price index number that really stunk up the joint... recognizing it for what it really was... an increase that's been nullified completely subsequently by one of the greatest commodity selloffs in history.  How amazing that the gold was down $19 bucks on the same day the CPI was up.  That shows you it's "rear-view mirror"...   In fact, I would say that today's action, which saw rallies in the financials, the retailers, the food and beverage companies... came on the back of still one more hideous, ugly day in oil and gas... as those two streams of energy, they keep cascading over...

People keep asking me, how do you play this "happier days are here again" theme?...  And I keep presenting you with new ways, because they are numerous and they are exciting to invest in.

Few companies benefit more in this new lower-inflation environment than the next one that I follow... and I own it for my charitable trust... It's
McDonald's (MCD*)...  happier meals of course...  And few have better long-term growth paths than Mickey D.

That's why I was so glad earlier today to get a chance to pull up with Jim Skinner.  He's the transformative MCD* CEO... for discussion about this company's multi-year prospects.  The analysts are all so worried about the next three days.  How about the next three years?

I believe MCD* will keep making you money for you and your kids for eons to come.  I'm not violating my rules of buy and homework.  I am just saying that the homework will yield why you stay long it.

Let's take a look at Jim Skinner... 

.  .  .  .  .

 

Jim's comments AFTER the interview:
JJC:   Jim Skinner, transformational CEO.  Congratulations for all the money you've made for all the people who watch Mad Money.

[ End of Interview ]

 

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


MCD*

63.60

na

McDonald's (MCD*)


     

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
  FastMoneyRecap:   This site will be a quick summary of recommendations made by the great Fast Money TV show crew, that will offer you a unique service, to compare their picks to Jim Cramer's past comments about those stocks.

Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
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